Law: Ranking the best prospects who’ve changed addresses so far this winter

MEXICO CITY, MEXICO - MARCH 23: Xavier Edwards of San Diego Padres tagged out in second base Ivan Terrazas of Diablos Rojos in the 2nd inning during a friendly game between San Diego Padres and Diablos Rojos at Alfredo Harp Helu Stadium on March 23, 2019 in Mexico City, Mexico. The game is held as part of the opening celebrations of the Alfredo Harp Helu Stadium, now the newest in Mexico to play baseball. (Photo by Hector Vivas/Getty Images)
By Keith Law
Jan 16, 2020

We haven’t had many significant prospects change organizations yet this winter, as the biggest names on the trade market — Mookie Betts, Francisco Lindor, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant — haven’t moved yet. Here’s my quick take on the ten best prospects to switch allegiances so far this offseason, and we’ll update this as more trades come along before spring training starts.

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1. Xavier Edwards, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays (traded from San Diego Padres)

The Padres hoarded prospects for a few years, but they’ve started to spend them this winter, dealing Edwards in a four-player deal for Tommy Pham, then trading the just-graduated prospect Luis Urias to Milwaukee for Trent Grisham. Edwards made my midseason top 50 prospects update in 2019, showing exceptional control of the strike zone as a 19-year-old in full-season ball last year, with 54 strikeouts and 44 walks between low-A and high-A. He’s a former shortstop who mostly played second last year and projects to stay there, although there’s always a chance someone tries him in centerfield. He just has to add strength now to project as an above-average regular at either spot.

2. Matt Liberatore, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals (traded from Rays)

Liberatore’s trade was a bit of a shocker, as the Rays aren’t in the habit of trading prospects, and their front office has long held that they have to develop their own pitching because they’ll probably never sign a mid- to high-end free-agent starter at market prices. Liberatore is up to 95 mph consistently, with good spin on his breaking ball and very good feel to pitch. He’s a ways away from the majors, however, as he’s still just 20 and doesn’t have 100 pro innings yet.

3. Will Wilson, SS, San Francisco Giants (traded from Los Angeles Angels)

Wilson is more notable right now for how he was acquired than for who he is: The Angels used Wilson, their first-round pick in 2019, to dump Zack Cozart’s contract on the Giants, who just released Cozart and in effect bought themselves a second first-rounder. Wilson is more likely to end up at second base, with enough power to profile there, but he’s got a bit of a grooved swing, and he struck out too much in short-season ball after he was drafted.

4. Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays (traded from Cardinals)

There’s a big value gap between Liberatore and Arozarena that isn’t reflected on this list; Arozarena looks like he might be a regular in an outfield corner, while Liberatore has more risk but quite a bit more upside. Arozarena could be a plus defender in a corner and makes hard contact, but that hasn’t translated into much power yet, and his reputation for baserunning acumen also hasn’t translated into production. He might be an everyday player, though, which puts him in the top 5 on this list at this point.

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5. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Cleveland (traded from Texas Rangers)

Clase was the main return for Corey Kluber, which is a far cry from what I think the baseball world thought Kluber was worth a year ago, but that’s hardly Clase’s fault. He was impressive in a two-month stint for Texas last year, hitting 101 and showing natural cutting action on the pitch, along with a slider that averages about 90. He misses a ton of bats with the fastball and hitters who do make contact tend to put it on the ground. He’s a relief prospect, which is a bit of an oxymoron, but that’s what Cleveland got for their erstwhile ace and I think he could be pretty good.

6. Steele Walker, of, Texas Rangers (traded from the White Sox)

Yeah yeah, Steele Walker, Texas Ranger, I got it, fine, I never watched that pablum anyway. Walker, traded to Texas in exchange for Nomar Mazara, has some bat-to-ball skills that could get him to the majors as a bench piece, although his performance in high-A last year (.269/.346/.426) was underwhelming for a corner bat from a major D1 program (Oklahoma) at age 22.

7. Jonathan Arauz, SS/2B, Boston Red Sox (selected from Houston Astros in the Rule 5 draft)

I was surprised the Astros left Arauz unprotected in the Rule 5 draft, and was surprised a team like the Red Sox took him, since he’ll just be 21 and hasn’t hit above low-A yet. He’s very talented, though, and many scouts believe he’ll hit once he’s at a level appropriate for his age – which doesn’t mean the major leagues in 2020. He did trend up last year, with solid contact rates at two levels and a career high in homers.

8. Jake Cronenworth, OF/RHP, San Diego Padres (traded from Rays)

Cronenworth might be the best example of the so-called “Swiss Army knife” player teams have sought for years: He can play second, third, or short on a utility basis, has some legit power, and is up to 96 mph with a hammer curveball. He just returned to pitching last year and has well below-average control right now, and we’ll see if he hits well enough that the Padres ditch the pitching angle.

9. Sterling Sharp, RHP, Miami Marlins (selected from Nationals in the Rule 5 draft)

An athletic sinkerballer who needs a little more oomph on his fastball — or a better swing-and-miss secondary pitch — Sharp was a surprise omission from the Nats’ 40-man roster. He’s a potential fifth starter because he throws so many strikes and gets groundballs.

10. Austin Allen, C, Oakland A’s (traded from Padres)

A classic backup catcher type – adequate enough behind the plate for part-time duty, with plus power and a questionable hit tool.

(Top photo of Edwards: Hector Vivas / Getty Images)

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Keith Law

Keith Law is a senior baseball writer for The Athletic. He has covered the sport since 2006 and prior to that was a special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays. He's the author of "Smart Baseball" (2017) and "The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves" (2020), both from William Morrow. Follow Keith on Twitter @keithlaw