The Tigers’ farm system is the best it’s been in some time thanks to a troika of starting pitchers who finished last year in Double A, along with the best position-player prospect they’ve drafted since they took Nick Castellanos in 2010.
The Top 10
1. Casey Mize, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 20)
From the Top 100: Mize was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft — and its best prospect — and looked like he would at least end 2019 in Triple A, if not the majors, posting a 0.92 ERA between High A and Double A in 13 starts before shoulder inflammation sent him to the injured list on June 13th. He came back a month later but wasn’t the same, giving up a 6.61 ERA in eight starts after his return before the Tigers shut him down after his August 17th outing. Before the injury, he was pushing Gore for the title of best pitching prospect in the minors, with three plus pitches in his fastball, slider, and grade-70 splitter, along with above-average command and plus control (a 4.2 percent walk rate). His delivery works, and while he’s also had forearm tightness in the past while at Auburn, he’s never had a serious arm injury. He’s supposed to be good to go for spring training, and if he looks like he did in the first half of 2019, he would be the best starter in the Tigers’ entire system — including their big-league roster.
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2. Tarik Skubal, LHP (Top 100 rank: No. 24)
From the Top 100: Skubal missed nearly two years after Tommy John surgery in 2016 while at the University of Seattle, and then had a mediocre spring in his full return in 2018. Still, Detroit saw enough to take him in the ninth round, making him the Redhawks’ highest-drafted player since 1966. He was dominant in short stints after signing that summer, but 2019 was his coming-out party, as he punched out 179 batters in 122 2/3 innings between High A and Double A, with just 37 walks. Skubal comes at hitters fast with a high leg kick and very quick delivery, cutting himself off a little bit on the first base side of the mound, with a plus fastball up to 97 and a plus curveball, and also has a slider and a solid-average changeup that has helped him get right-handed batters about as well as lefties. It’s not a pretty delivery, but it works enough for him to throw a lot of strikes, and he has the stuff and control already to be an above-average starter.
3. Matt Manning, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 32)
From the Top 100: Manning would be the top pitching prospect in about twenty organizations; in Detroit’s, he’s third, but that’s no reflection on him. A former basketball standout who had a two-sport scholarship to Loyola Marymount before signing with the Tigers as the ninth overall pick in 2016, Manning has made huge strides in Detroit’s system. He’s gone from a good athlete who threw hard to more of a complete pitcher, with a better delivery and improved secondary stuff. Manning will sit 91-95 mph and gets good extension on the pitch so he can work with it up in the zone. His curveball, a nonfactor in high school, is comfortably above-average now, as is his mid-80s changeup. The curve especially benefits from the new delivery, as he finishes further out front and lower, getting more depth to the pitch. Those mechanical changes also brought his control from dangerously below-average to somewhere close to major-league average now. There may be more ceiling here, given his athleticism and the newness of the delivery. I think he’s a mid-rotation starter even without much more progress, and a No. 2 with some incremental growth, either in command or in one of the two offspeed weapons.
4. Riley Greene, OF (Top 100 rank: N0. 41)
From the Top 100: Greene was the fifth overall pick last June out of an Orlando-area high school, but the Tigers were so high on him, and so impressed by how he handled himself in the Gulf Coast League, that they promoted him to the short-season New York-Penn League, then to the Low-A Midwest League. It was aggressive, but at least gave Greene a taste of the level where he’ll start 2020. One of the top high school position players in the draft class, Greene has a sound swing with very quick hands, with the ability to hit velocity as long as he has his timing down. He’s a hitter first but projects to above-average to plus power, probably a 20- to 25-homer guy with high averages in the end. The Tigers played him exclusively in center field, but he’s going to end up in left due to his lack of speed and fringy arm, although with work he could be at least a neutral defender out there. The bat is the carrying tool here, and the high contact rates and pop he showed in brief trials last summer, often against older pitching, are very positive signs for his long-term outlook as a potential No. 2 hitter who gets on base and hits for some power too.
5. Isaac Paredes, 3B
Paredes can hit and makes hard line-drive contact (more of the doubles variety than home runs); he could be a regular at third base with passable defense, or perhaps in an outfield corner.
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6. Willi Castro, SS
Castro’s debut in the majors last year was not great, Bob, but he had his best full season yet as a pro, hitting .301/.366/.467 in Triple A with a career-best walk rate. He can play shortstop — he’s probably a 55 defender there with a plus arm — and is an above-average runner with good instincts on both sides of the ball. He’s always been young for where he’s played, so his plate discipline could still improve, but as is he’s probably a soft regular or very good utility infielder.
7. Parker Meadows, OF
Meadows, the younger brother of Tampa Bay outfielder Austin, has a plus arm and plus speed, and last year cut down on the hand hitch that had raised big questions about whether he would hit. He has power projection as he fills out his 6-foot-5 frame and the athleticism to stay in center.
8. Joey Wentz, LHP
The Tigers got Wentz for Shane Greene at the 2019 trade deadline, and it seems like a modest steal for them. Wentz has at least fourth starter potential with an above-average fastball, huge extension out over his front side and two secondary pitches in his curve and change that will at least flash above-average. He made five starts for Erie and walked just four guys against 37 strikeouts. A tiny sample but, if it’s any sign at all that he’s improved his command and control, perhaps reason to think he could be more than a back-end starter.
9. Daz Cameron, OF
Cameron’s year in Triple A was a mess: It included a rather public disparagement by his manager (the since-fired Doug Mientkiewicz), a tinkering with his swing, a jump in strikeouts and a drop in average to .214, with nothing else to sugarcoat it. He’s still an above-average defender in center and has enough history of production to stay with him, but 2019 was a year for him to make progress – especially with the Happy Fun Ball in Triple A. Instead, it was a catastrophe.
10. Nick Quintana, 3B
The Tigers’ second-round pick in 2019 is a plus defender at third with pull power but a better hitting approach when he uses more of the field. He struggled badly with a promotion to Low A, hitting .158/.228/.226 in 41 games there, but he could also have been gassed after a full spring at the University of Arizona.
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The next 10
11. Alex Faedo, RHP
Faedo’s stuff ticked up a little bit last year. He was consistently at 91-92 mph as a starter by year’s end with an above-average slider. He’s almost certainly heading for a relief role but he could potentially be quite good there if the slider becomes an out pitch for him again.
12. Jake Rogers, C
Rogers is a good defensive catcher with some power and a 35 hit tool; he will chase fastballs up all day and is vulnerable to offspeed stuff down as a result. He’s probably a backup because of his glove, but I might bet the under on that.
13. Sergio Alcantara, SS
Alcantara is a lithe shortstop who is one of the Tigers’ best defensive infielders. He has some bat-to-ball skills, but so far hasn’t shown the strength needed for hard contact. At 23, he’ll play this year, and could become a regular if he starts to make better-quality contact and raises his BABIP.
14. Franklin Perez, RHP
Thanks to frequent shoulder soreness, Perez has thrown just 27 innings in two years with the Tigers, who acquired him in the Justin Verlander trade that hasn’t worked out in any conceivable way you could look at it. He had mid-rotation potential or better upside before the shoulder trouble.
15. Wenceel Perez, SS/2B
Perez went to Low A at 19 last year and probably wasn’t ready physically, although he didn’t strike out much considering his age and inexperience. He’s played short and second and projects better at the latter spot. Still, he’ll probably stay at short in the near future.
16. Derek Hill, OF
Hill is a 70 defender in center with a 35 hit tool, despite a good swing that should produce enough contact to make him a regular. He’s just never figured out a plan at the plate that will get him there, falling behind too quickly in the count whenever I’ve seen him. His glove might get him to the big leagues, but his bat won’t let him stay there.
17. Paul Richan, RHP
Richan throws a ton of strikes with average stuff, walking just 20 batters in 123.2 innings last year between the Cubs’ and the Tigers’ High-A affiliates. He might be a fifth starter or just a quality swingman.
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18. Andre Lipcius, 3B/2B
Lipcius hit 17 homers last spring for the University of Tennessee, but some of that was boosted by its home park; he’s a below-average athlete with some power and may end up at first base.
19. Ryan Kreidler, SS
The Tigers’ fourth-round pick in 2019, Kreidler plays an adequate shortstop but would be better served with a move to second or third, where he probably doesn’t have the power to be a regular.
20. Bryant Packard, LF
Packard, Detroit’s fifth-round pick last year, had the best debut of its major draft picks, showing off his ability to barrel up the ball. He lacks power, though, due to a late trigger and almost no hip rotation. I’m curious whether Detroit can help him the way it helped Meadows, although they’re quite different as players.
2020 impact
Any of Mize, Skubal or Manning could appear in the Tigers’ rotation this year; Mize was ready in 2019 before he got hurt. I expect Paredes to debut this year as well.
The fallen
Beau Burrows, Detroit’s first-round pick in 2015, missed half of the year with shoulder and oblique injuries and was bad when he pitched. Plus, after four-plus seasons, he still hasn’t found an average breaking pitch: Right-handed batters destroyed him last year with a .289/.365/.591 line in Triple A. He’s only 23, but he has stalled.
Sleeper
Meadows has the athleticism and upside to make a big jump in 2020, especially now that his swing is so much more direct to the ball.
(Photo of Casey Mize: Mark Cunningham / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
