Law: 2020 predictions and potential breakout candidates

The MLB season, such as it is, begins Thursday, and even though it’s scaled down in many ways, a season demands predictions, even when we all know the length of the season means we’re far more likely to have strange results — a team winning 70 percent or more of its games, a hitter batting .400, a pitcher posting a 1.50 ERA. So just keep in mind that while my annual predictions are just for fun, these are, somehow, even more so.

Breakout candidates

I’ve offered readers breakout candidates for upcoming seasons for years now, but it’s a bit easier when there’s a full season ahead and I feel more confident that players who get off to slow starts will get time to make adjustments or just let small samples work themselves out. The small season also makes it more likely that some players will appear to “break out” only to regress to their previous levels of performance in 2021 when the sample size is larger.

Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago White Sox

Michael Kopech’s choice to opt out of the 2020 season dealt a hit to the White Sox’s odds of playoff contention this year, but they could regain some of what they lost if Cease continues to show the stuff he did at the end of 2019. Cease was sitting at 96-97 mph in September with a plus slider up to 87 mph that missed a slew of bats. I’d like to see him use that slider more against left-handed batters while also increasing the use of his changeup, as lefties torched him last season (.285/.372/.542), but he has the weapons in his arsenal right now to shrink that platoon split and emerge as a No. 2 starter.

Ryan McMahon, IF, Colorado

McMahon makes a lot of hard contact, and last year improved his plate discipline and slightly boosted his launch angle; his average exit velocity was in the top decile in baseball and was the highest of any Rockies hitter. He just has to make more of it; he already has the defensive chops at second and would be a solid replacement for Nolan Arenado at third if the Rockies’ star player should get hurt.

Francisco Mejía, C, San Diego

Mejía has only 320 plate appearances so far in the majors, but it seems like the world has given up on him, especially since Cleveland was willing to part with him in a 2018 trade for left-handed reliever Brad Hand, but Mejía owns a .295/.349/.462 career line in the minors, with consistently strong contact rates up through Triple A. He had better luck at the plate as the season progressed last year but was fighting Austin Hedges, a superior defender who’s never hit, for playing time – and that’s probably the biggest obstacle to Mejia breaking out.

Vlad Guerrero Jr., 1B/DH, Toronto

Guerrero makes exceptionally hard contact, with the highest exit velocity Statcast recorded on a ball in play in 2019 at 118.9 mph, and rarely strikes out, so the raw ingredients are here for him to become an elite hitter with plus power. He’s a very smart hitter, with a good understanding of his own approach and how to adjust to pitchers as they make adjustments to him. I also believe that getting him off third base will also help him at the plate, as he won’t be wasting time or energy trying to learn a position he was never going to be able to play. He’s going to explode at the plate at some point soon, if not in this shortened season, then very likely in 2021.

Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay

Adames made more and better-quality contact last year than he did in his rookie stint in the majors, but lost 58 points of BABIP — some of which was inevitable, given how high his BABIP was in his first go-around, but the pendulum swung too far the other way. Even without another drop in his strikeout rate, he seems likely to hit for a higher average and for more power this year, and there’s certainly a chance that at age 24 he still has further improvement in his plate discipline ahead of him.

Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta

Fried’s won-lost record last year was better than his underlying performance, but I don’t think he’s fully tapped into the potential of his pure stuff, especially since he almost entirely dispensed with his changeup last year after it was so effective for him as a reliever in 2018. I’ll be even more bullish on Fried’s prospects once Cristian Pache returns from his Grade 2 ankle sprain and takes over in center field, which will give Atlanta one of the best defensive outfield units in baseball.

Nick Senzel, CF, Cincinnati

I’d prefer to see Senzel in the infield, since he’s a more valuable defender at second or third and I think would have less risk of injury there, but even if he struggles on defense in center, I really like his chances to boost his batting line across the board this year. His debut last year was a little underwhelming after he hit for an average above .300 and an OBP over .360 at every stop in the minors, but he had trouble with major-league breaking stuff and, unsurprisingly, saw more of it as the season went on. This is a bet that he’ll adjust to it with more repetitions, as he hasn’t shown a weakness against sliders or curveballs in the minors, and at least he was able to make contact against those pitches in the majors. My guess is we see a bump in his average and OBP, with a small boost to his power.

Predicted standings

The Yankees and Rays seem quite close, and clear of the other three teams in the division. If there’s a sleeper to be had here, it could be the Blue Jays, who upgraded their rotation with Hyung-Jin Ryu and Tanner Roark, could get 12 starts from Nate Pearson if they would stop playing service time games, and have substantial depth of what would ordinarily be Triple-A starters available. The Red Sox are the anti-sleeper, because their rotation is so thin that even a strong offense may not keep them within shouting distance of .500. The Orioles named Tommy Milone, who was below replacement level in 2016, 2017 and 2018, as their Opening Day starter, which made me think my prediction here was too kind.

In early March, I thought the White Sox were the most likely sleeper team in the AL this year, if not to win the division, then to make the playoffs, but my confidence did take a hit when Michael Kopech opted out of the season since I’m very high on his potential. The Twins patched their rotation with some low-dollar signings and went big with Josh Donaldson, which should help mitigate the regression they were likely to see after hitting 307 homers last year, most in MLB history. Cleveland did little to help their roster, but they still have a strong rotation thanks to the emergence of Shane Bieber and fifth starter Zach Plesac, who has some growth potential if he just gets his walk rate back down to where it was throughout his minor-league career.

Whatever your feelings on the Astros might be, they remain the class of the division and nobody here is especially close. I wouldn’t mind being wrong about the Angels, as Mike Trout reaching the playoffs would be a welcome bit of news for baseball, but their rotation still seems short of what they’ll need to be a 35-win team. The A’s may get little or nothing from A.J. Puk this year, and Jesús Luzardo, who has always had trouble staying healthy, might start in the bullpen, while their offense as a whole seems likely to take a step back, although Sean Murphy will be a big help behind the plate.

I see four teams that could take this division, and while the Phillies are probably the most flawed of the four on paper, in a short season they wouldn’t need all that much luck to leapfrog the other three. Atlanta might have the most downside here, with Cristian Pache injured, Freddie Freeman recovering from a serious bout of COVID-19, and Nick Markakis opting out, although I would still bet on their pitching to keep them above .500. The Mets should probably be the team most pleased by the shortened season, since their front line roster is comparable to the other contenders here but they are probably the worst prepared for another player missing the season due to injury or COVID-19 of the four. The Marlins’ progress in their farm system won’t be reflected at all in the majors this year, but perhaps we’ll get to see 2020 draft pick Max Meyer debut in their bullpen.

As in the NL East, the Central has four teams that could easily end up winning the division, but they’re even more tightly clumped together in talent and expectations. The Reds seem like they’ll have the best offense of the group, between offseason additions and my expectations for Nick Senzel taking a leap forward, and the best bullpen, so even with what will probably be a below-average defense and likely regressions from their starters, they’re still my pick to win the division. The Cardinals seem likely to keep Dylan Carlson at their alternate camp long enough to push back his free agency by a year, but in a division this close, shouldn’t they err on the side of taking the best players from day one? The Brewers probably have the highest-risk rotation, although Corbin Burnes throwing extremely well after some offseason adjustments is good news for them. The Cubs didn’t really upgrade their roster this winter, treading water as their rivals tried to improve, but the Ricketts family is so poor that we can all understand their predicament. The Pirates are the only non-contenders here, but are still well worth watching given how many young players and rookies they’ll probably use this year.

The Dodgers are the safest bet to win their division of any NL team, probably the safest bet in the majors, even safer than the Astros, which is why they can option Gavin Lux, who might have been my Rookie of the Year pick, without impacting their playoff odds. The Padres are the most interesting team in the division, and could ride their young talent to a playoff spot if a few things happen — Fernando Tatis Jr., playing as he did last year for a full 60 games; MacKenzie Gore making the team and pitching as he did in 2019; Francisco Mejía fulfilling my breakout prediction; either Wil Myers or Eric Hosmer being more than replacement level; and so on. They have plenty of upside, just not the certainty that would make me predict them winning a wild-card spot. The Rockies and Giants are both well short of contender status, although the Rockies could make things interesting if McMahon, David Dahl and Sam Hilliard all show progress this year.

Postseason

As unpredictable as the playoffs can be, they feel even more so this year because we could easily see key players unable to play in October if they test positive for COVID-19, or if they get sick from it and are unable to play due to illness or the fatigue many people experience while recovering.

Update:

I’ve updated my playoff predictions to reflect the new postseason structure, where 16 teams will advance to October and the first round will comprise three-game series. I haven’t adjusted any of my standings predictions, however, even with Juan Soto on the Injured List after a positive COVID-19 test.

Wild card

Houston defeats Oakland
NY Yankees defeat Chicago White Sox
Minnesota defeats LA Angels
Tampa Bay defeats Cleveland
LA Dodgers defeat St. Louis
Washington defeats San Diego
Atlanta defeats Cincinnati
NY Mets defeat Chicago Cubs

Division Series

NY Yankees defeat Twins
Houston defeats Tampa Bay
LA Dodgers defeat NY Mets
Washington defeats Atlanta

League Championship Series

Houston defeats NY Yankees
LA Dodgers defeats Washington

World Series

LA Dodgers over Houston

Awards

American League MVP: Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

I apologize for being predictable, but isn’t he the best bet? If I had to pick someone less obvious, however, I’d go with Carlos Correa, who might be a 7-win player in a full 162 game season right now.

National League MVP [updated]: Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves

My original pick was Juan Soto, but he’s likely going to miss 10 percent of the season after his positive COVID-19 test on Thursday, and possibly more. With him probably out of the running, I’ll go with Acuña, who’s already a top ten player in the National League and still hasn’t hit his ceiling.

American League Cy Young Award: Gerrit Cole, RHP, New York Yankees

He should have won last year.

National League Cy Young Award: Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

I suppose deGrom or Scherzer would be a safer bet, but Buehler has emerged as a bona fide ace, and his one issue so far as a starter, his lower innings totals as the Dodgers managed his workload, won’t be an obstacle in this 60-game season.

American League Rookie of the Year: Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox

First among reasons to pick Robert is that he has a job, thanks to the long-term deal the White Sox gave him in the offseason, and even an extra week of playing time over rivals could be the difference between him winning and someone just as good who plays a bit less.

National League Rookie of the Year: Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis

I’m not sure which NL rookies are likely to get the most playing time this year; I would have had Gavin Lux as the front-runner until the Dodgers optioned him earlier this week, and if they’re going to manipulate his service time he may be down for longer than Carlson.

(Photo: Getty Images)