Since I can’t go scout players in person as I usually would, I’ve been watching various young players so far this season to provide scouting-like notes from home, focusing on players who are either still rookies or just recently lost rookie eligibility but haven’t established themselves yet in the majors. This is the fifth in my series of scouting notebooks, covering some prospect performances from the last few days.
We had a prospect debut matchup on Wednesday night in Chicago, as the first overall pick from 2018, Detroit right-hander Casey Mize (my preseason No. 20 prospect), faced former supplemental first-round pick Dane Dunning of the White Sox in a game that would see the pair combine for 14 strikeouts and just one walk. They both pitched very well for four innings before the third time through the order stung them both, with Mize especially showing why Tigers fans should be very excited about the future of their rotation.
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Mize was 91-96 mph with very good life on his two-seamer, missing some spots within the zone, but the star attraction here was his splitter — a wipeout pitch when he finished it out front, 85-88 mph and just diving out of sight to generate a lot of swings. White Sox hitters swung at nearly three-quarters of the splitters Mize threw, and whiffed on almost half of them. He did hang a couple of them, and had even more trouble getting his two breaking balls down in the zone consistently. He gave up a homer on a hanging curveball to Edwin Encarnación while he had several sliders back up at the top of his velocity range (he was 87-90 mph on the slider, 81-83 mph on the curveball). He punched out 7 without a walk after two trips through Chicago’s order, then gave up run-scoring singles to Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada before his day was over. But the way Mize missed bats with the splitter and both breaking balls is extremely promising. And he mostly threw strikes, which is why I’ve ranked him so aggressively since he was drafted and I still think he can end up a No. 1 starter.
Dunning was the third pitcher coming from Washington in the Adam Eaton trade along with Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López, and probably would have seen the majors two years ago had he not injured his elbow, missing the second half of 2018 and then all of 2019 after rehab didn’t work and he had Tommy John surgery. Dunning was 91-94 mph and located it very well down and away to right-handers, and showed a plus changeup early with good tumble at 85-87 mph. He didn’t have much feeling for his breaking ball in the first inning, but it improved as he went along, and he started getting it down for chases — down and in to lefties, down and away to righties — until he started the third time through the order and left one up to Jeimer Candelario, who hit a three-run homer that ended Dunning’s day. Dunning was also really hurt by his defense; Zack Collins, a below-average receiver, was catching and had trouble with Dunning’s breaking stuff, while several fielders behind Dunning didn’t get to balls they probably should have. I thought Dunning could be a league-average starter before he got hurt, and after this — the first time I’ve seen him pitch in any form since the injury — I don’t see any reason to change that projection.
The Phillies recalled Alec Bohm (my preseason No. 38 prospect) about a week ago, in what I assume was a complicated scheme to help their pitching staff by adding a bat. That part hasn’t worked, but Bohm has hit, and hit the ball hard — a third of his balls hit into play so far have come at 100+ mph — while showing a very good approach for someone with only one full season of pro ball under his belt. Bohm has really impressed with his strength, with multiple outs to the warning track already, as well as his ability to work deep counts. It’s less about him drawing walks and more that he’s so disciplined with two strikes and that so far he’s at least shown some ability to pick up breaking stuff as well. Given all the hard contact he’s made on balls he’s hit in the air, it seems inevitable that he’ll start putting a few balls in the seats soon. Now if only he could pitch …
As I wrote this, the Giants announced they were calling up catcher Joey Bart, my No. 44 prospect coming into the year, and thus also adding him to their 40-man roster. Bart is a premium defensive catcher with power but some questions about his bat speed and his swing-and-miss; he’s also been hurt multiple times in his brief tenure in pro ball. They’ve gotten next to nothing from their catchers this year, though, and this could serve as a way to break Bart into the majors: having him work more extensively with pitchers who have better stuff and with the major-league coaching staff so that he’s ready to be their full-time catcher on Opening Day next year.
The Marlins announced they’re recalling right-hander Sixto Sánchez (No. 49) and outfielder Jesús Sánchez (No. 83), both of whom were acquired in trades last year (Sixto from the Phillies with two other players for J.T. Realmuto, Jesús from Tampa Bay in a four-player deal). Sixto is the better prospect, a slight right-hander who hits 101 mph with relative ease as a starter, showing good control but inconsistent secondary stuff. Jesús is a high-contact hitter with strong exit velocities but can be over-aggressive and lacks the approach to translate his bat control into high batting averages. Both were among the Marlins’ top six prospects coming into the season.
(Top photo of Mize: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)
