I didn’t have an award ballot again this year — hold your surprise — which leaves me free to comment on all six of the player awards before the results are announced. I think most of the awards are going to be fairly straightforward; other than the National League Cy Young Award, we can probably guess the winners of the remaining five. That said, I don’t agree with the consensus on several of these awards, which you’ll see below with my explanations of why I see things a bit differently.
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American League MVP
The narrative is that José Ramírez won the MVP by carrying Cleveland to the playoffs in the last few weeks of the season … but while Ramírez had a great season at the plate, Shane Bieber was the best player in the American League this year, and he contributed more to Cleveland’s playoff status with his pitching than Ramírez did with his bat. You’d have to believe Ramírez was a plus defender — which the limited advanced metrics we have don’t say — to put him over Bieber’s league-leading 3.3 WAR. Anthony Rendon managed the rare feat of outproducing Mike Trout — this is a new feeling for Trout, having someone else in the lineup even in his vicinity in total value, although Trout was still among the league leaders in WAR.
- Shane Bieber, Cleveland
- José Ramírez, Cleveland
- Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
- Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
- José Abreu, Chicago White Sox
- DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees
- Hyun-Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays
- Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
- Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
- Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
National League MVP
For most of the season this appeared to be Fernando Tatis Jr., but he hit .208/.303/.403 in September and Freddie Freeman passed him — and Mookie Betts might have too, depending on your metric of choice. The Padres have had just one MVP winner in their 52-year history, Ken Caminiti in 1996, and as far as I can tell have never had two players finish in the top five in MVP voting, but this year they have one player who’s at least worthy of a first-place vote and two players who should be in the top five on every ballot. My two preseason MVP picks, Juan Soto and Ronald Acuña Jr., the latter coming in after the former tested positive for COVID-19, both had MVP-caliber performances in less than a full season and make the tail end of my ballot.
- Freddie Freeman, Atlanta
- Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
- Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
- Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
- Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
- Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
- Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
- Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta
- Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
American League Cy Young Award
This is a no-brainer, especially since I already said I’d list Bieber atop my MVP ballot. Since there isn’t much more to say about Bieber’s outstanding season — including an MLB-leading 1.63 ERA and 122 strikeouts — I’ll point out that the Blue Jays’ decision to sign Hyun-Jin Ryu as a free agent looks extremely shrewd after the first of its four years, as Ryu was the second-best pitcher in the AL this year and a huge part of why they made the playoffs.
- Shane Bieber, Cleveland
- Hyun-Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays
- Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
- Lance Lynn, Texas Rangers
- Dallas Keuchel, Chicago White Sox
National League Cy Young Award
If Corbin Burnes had spent the whole year in Milwaukee’s rotation — and/or hadn’t strained an oblique muscle — he might have ended up the top pitcher in the NL, but that’s not how things fell. Perhaps the same would have been true for Max Fried if he hadn’t been injured in September. You can make a great case for any of the five pitchers I’ve listed here, but Darvish led the league in fWAR, was second to Burnes in FIP, and third in innings pitched and strikeouts, so he would get my vote.
- Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
- Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
- Max Fried, Atlanta
- Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
- Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds
American League Rookie of the Year
Luis Robert was my preseason pick for this award, but he didn’t hit that well at all, with a .295 OBP punctuated by a 31-plate-appearance hitless streak in September. He was still a plus-plus defender in center, with dRS (Defensive Runs Saved) ranking him fifth among qualifying outfielders this year, but a low OBP power hitter at the plate. Former first-rounder Kyle Lewis was the best rookie in the AL this year, but also a great story, as he finally seemed to have recovered all the way from a catastrophic knee injury he suffered four months after he was drafted in 2016 that cost him that fall, most of 2017, and quite a bit of 2018 as well.
- Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners
- Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox
- Justus Sheffield, Seattle Mariners
National League Rookie of the Year
Jake Cronenworth is probably going to win this award, but the best rookie in the NL this year was Ke’Bryan Hayes, who produced more value than Cronenworth did in half the playing time, leading in both bWAR and fWAR by three-tenths of a win. Hayes is an elite defender as well, although most of the 1.8 WAR he produced came with his bat. If voters were complacent and sent in their ballots before the season ended, there’s a good chance they got this one wrong, even if they were looking at the right statistics.
- Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres
- Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers
(Photo of Darvish: Matt Marton / Associated Press)
