The Reds had one of my favorite draft classes of 2021, blending some upside bets with some safer picks to go with the talent already in the system, which saw the emergence of a prospect with one of the best tools packages in the minors. Several of the better pitchers in this system were hit by the injury bug last year, along with one of the best pure hit tools in the system.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Hunter Greene, RHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 12)
Age: 22 | 6-5 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 2 in 2017
Greene will hit 98-101 mph as a starter most nights, and has been up to 104 mph in games, although I don’t think that’s necessary or even advisable for him to try to do too often. Since being the second overall pick in 2017, he’s shown remarkable progress as a pitcher. In high school, he had the same incredible arm strength, but his offspeed stuff wasn’t great and he was also serving as his team’s shortstop, showing some power at the plate but below-average bat speed. He’s added a slider in pro ball, a pitch that’s already average to above-average and should end up plus given his arm speed; while he’s also improved his changeup substantially, allowing him to close his platoon split by more than half since 2018. His fastball doesn’t have great life or spin, so the continued development of those offspeed pitches is key. Greene had Tommy John surgery in 2018, then missed 2019 while rehabbing and 2020 to the pandemic, so he’d gone 33 months between regulation games when he took the mound this past May. He dominated Double A, and his home run troubles in Triple A boiled down to two disaster starts (seven home runs allowed in 6 2/3 innings), outside of which he had little trouble with the longball. His bigger issue remains allowing more good contact than he should given his stuff, but the trend line is positive as he continues to develop his arsenal. Greene was scratched from one August start with irritation in the AC joint of his throwing shoulder, returned to make five more starts, then was shut down as he reached his innings limit for the year, with 106 1/3 innings in his first year back, along with 139 strikeouts — enough to put him in the top 30 in minor league baseball. He’ll see the majors this year, and if nothing else, big league hitters will force him to use his whole repertoire and make more adjustments. His ranking here is a bet on that continued growth, on his incredible athleticism and makeup, and that he’ll end up outperforming other pitchers who’ve had better results in the minors so far.
2. Elly de la Cruz, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 69)
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 150 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
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De La Cruz is the highest-beta prospect on this list — he has a chance to be a superstar, and he has a non-trivial chance to have no major-league value at all. He has incredible tools, with 70 speed, a 70 arm, absurd bat speed, and plus power already even though he’s barely begun to fill out his 6-4 or 6-5 frame. (He’s listed everywhere at 6-2, which was his height when he signed, but unlike me, he grew after he turned 16.) His wrists are loose and quick, and the ball flies off his bat in a way you wouldn’t expect from a kid who’s still lanky and wiry. His approach at the plate leaves a lot to be desired, however; there’s a lot of chase and not much pitch recognition, in part because at lower levels he knows he can put his bat on the ball even if he guesses wrong. You could see hints of this in his 50 games in Low-A Daytona, where he was one of the youngest players at the level, with 10 walks against 65 strikeouts. He has the quickness and actions for shortstop, but not the consistency, and of course he’s going to get a lot bigger from here and may need to move to another position. There are a lot more Reggie Abercrombies and Charlton Jimersons in MLB history than there are Sammy Sosas and Alfonso Sorianos, but the upside for De La Cruz is in that 6+ WAR territory, especially if he manages to stay on the dirt.
3. Matt McLain, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 72)
Age: 22 | 5-11 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 17 in 2021
McLain was a top-10 talent in the 2021 draft, and a first-rounder (who didn’t sign) back in 2018, but slid to the 17th pick, possibly because his spring was interrupted by a broken thumb. He had a breakout year for UCLA before the draft, then carried it right on into pro ball, where he hit .273/.387/.424 in a month with Low-A Daytona, setting him up well to try to reach Double A by the end of this year. McLain is a shortstop for now, although he’s probably no more than a 50 defender there and a contending club would probably push him to second in favor of a plus defender; the Reds even drafted one after McLain, taking Jose Torres, a gifted shortstop with a below-average hit tool, in the third round. McLain’s real standout tool is his bat, as he has great feel for the barrel, controls the zone, and shows gap power, a bit like Jonathan India (who was No. 88 on last year’s top 100) but with less future power than the reigning Rookie of the Year and more speed. He’s also likely to move quickly through the minors with his advanced hit tool, especially if the Reds decide to just move him to second base now because Jose Barrero is ahead of him. He lacks the ceiling of some of the other players ahead of him on the list, but projects as a longtime regular who might make the occasional All-Star team in his peak batting average seasons.
4. Jay Allen, OF
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 30 in 2021
The Reds had a fantastic and fun draft in 2021, following up McLain by taking Allen, a very toolsy, athletic Florida prep outfielder who also shows good feel for the strike zone for his age. He’s a centerfielder who projects to stay there and be an asset on defense. He projects to 15 to 20 homers with a lot of doubles, with an approach geared toward the middle of the field — although he looks like he’ll have more power than that if he makes some tweaks to get to it in certain counts.
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5. Nick Lodolo, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-6 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 7 in 2019
Lodolo ended the year on the shelf with a sore shoulder, bad news for someone whose delivery always put more stress on that joint. He pitched very well before the injury, with two above-average to plus pitches — the slider misses bats, but he gets a lot of chases on it, a lot like Andrew Miller was as a prospect, another lower-slot lefty with velocity and a hard, sweeping slider. Lodolo doesn’t have a great third pitch for right-handers, and shoulder issues for a guy who has some sling in his arm action is a major concern.
6. Graham Ashcraft, P
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 240 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 174 in 2019
The Reds’ player development staff did a great job with Ashcraft, a big-bodied right-hander who threw hard for the University of Alabama at Birmingham but didn’t show much feel or command. He was excellent in High A and Double A last year, and did it mostly with his fastball, a mid-90s pitch with plus life, generating groundballs and some swings and misses. His secondary stuff is just average, and he might not get enough command to start. But the way the fastball plays up should encourage the Reds to leave him in the rotation and see how he develops in other areas.
7. Mat Nelson, C
Age: 23 | 5-11 | 209 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 35 in 2021
Nelson was the Reds’ third pick in the 2021 draft, going in the sandwich round between the first and second, as one of the best college seniors in the class. Nelson has huge power, clubbing 23 homers last spring for Florida State, and he’s adequate behind the plate, enough to stay there. He remade himself during the pandemic and came out a different player, but he was also 22 and older than a lot of his competition. He has some upside if he hits enough to get to that power, while he could be a Mark Parent-like backup if he doesn’t.
8. Jose Torres, SS
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 171 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 89 in 2021
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Torres can really defend — he may just field his way to the big leagues — so the real question is what kind of hitter he can be. He wasn’t a strong on-base guy at NC State and only hit .289/.343/.533 this spring, with some pull power if he gets a mistake. His swing is fine, but he doesn’t show great feel for the barrel or pitch recognition. He’s strong enough to do some damage if he can square up the baseball more often. His great pro debut, where he hit .337/.383/.568 in a month in Low A, might be misleading. I think he can be a soft regular, a .290 to .300 on-base percentage batter who hits 15 homers and is a 70 defender at short.
9. Rece Hinds, 3B
Age: 21 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 49 in 2019
Hinds has 80 power and last year showed some progress in getting to it in games. He finished the year tied for 13th in the Florida State League — I mean, the Low-A Southeast League — which is a lousy place to hit for power, in home runs, with 10, despite playing just 43 games there. He’s getting better on stuff in the zone, but he’s chasing too much out of zone. He’s still a low-probability guy, but the ceiling is 35-plus homers.
10. Andrew Abbott, LHP
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 180 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 53 in 2021
Abbott is a safe back-end starter type, a three-pitch lefty with good deception against left-handed batters, showing control but more like 45 command. I’m nitpicking, but I think he could tighten up the changeup a little bit, in addition to needing a small bump in command to be a fourth starter.
11. Tyler Callihan, 2B
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 85 in 2019
Callihan played 23 games in 2021 before hurting his elbow when diving for a ball, requiring Tommy John surgery that ended his season. He was supposed to be one of the best pure hitters in his draft class in 2019, but lacked a clear position or future plus power — and that’s all still true. He looks like he’s going to hit for average and doubles power, with maybe 12 to 18 homers, and he might end up in left field.
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12. Mike Siani, OF
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 188 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 109 in 2018
Siani changed his swing before his senior year of high school to try to hit for more power, and his bat has never quite recovered. He hit .216/.321/.327 in High A last year, making enough contact but not doing anything with it. He’s hitting the ball in the air way too often, especially popping it up. He’s a 70 runner and 70 glove in center, and if he can just stop trying to pull and lift everything, he’d be on the fast track to the majors.
13. Alejo Lopez, 2B/3B
Age: 26 | 5-10 | 170 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 805 in 2015
Lopez came out of nowhere last year to hit .320/.401/.447 between Double A and Triple A with more walks than strikeouts at each level, earning a cup of coffee with the Reds. He’s a capable defender at second or third and can fill in at shortstop in a pinch, with enough contact skills to be valuable as a utility infielder who can also pinch-hit later in games.
14. Lyon Richardson, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 192 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 47 in 2018
Richardson tried to change his approach last year to go more fastball/slider and miss more bats, but the tradeoff for the increased strikeouts was that he gave up more hard contact and walked more guys. His slider would get too firm and he still doesn’t have enough of a third pitch for lefties. He had Tommy John surgery after the 2021 season, unfortunately, and won’t pitch again until 2023.
15. Allan Cerda, OF
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Cerda is very strong with huge power, plus speed and a plus arm; toolsy enough that he’ll get to the big leagues, although there’s some effort to his game that keeps him below the de la Cruz/Allen tier of prospects. He’s just fair in center and will end up in right field. While at the plate, he hit 17 homers last year in just 87 games at both levels of A-ball, but with too much chase at the plate for that power to continue to play as he moves up. If he cuts down on his personal strike zone, he has a chance to be a regular.
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16. Daniel Vellojin, C
Age: 22 | 5-11 | 160 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Signed out of Colombia for just $10,000 in 2018, Vellojin finally made his U.S. debut last year, hitting .247/.401/.403 as a 21-year-old in Low A, old for the level. He’s a strong defensive catcher with the arm to throw out 43 percent of runners last year, and has a good idea of the strike zone. He does need to get stronger to be able to bear the workload of a full season and to get some more impact into all the contact he makes. He has everyday upside but we do need to see him against better pitching this year.
17. Eduardo Salazar, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 177 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
The Venezuelan right-hander Salazar got off to a great start in High A, moving to a full-time starting role and seeing his stuff and results tick up from 2019, before he was promoted to Double A and made one more start before his shoulder barked and he was shut down. Prior to that he was 92-95 mph with enough secondaries to project as a starter, even showing better results against lefties last year. His delivery is fine, although he’s on the slighter side for a starting pitcher.
18. Ivan Johnson, 2B/SS
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 190 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 114 in 2019
Johnson played more short than second last year, but he’s not a shortstop, and he’s only going to be fringy at second. He has enough pop to be a regular there if he can make more contact – he punched out 30 percent of the time last year in both levels of A-ball as a 22-year-old, which is way too much for his age. The lost pandemic year probably hurt him more than most prospects because he needed reps against better pitching than what he’d seen in junior college.
19. Ariel Almonte, OF
Age: 18 | 6-1 | 170 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
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Almonte signed for $1.85 million in January 2021, for his promise of big power from an outfield corner. He has a loose, easy left-handed swing that should produce hard contact, although he’s going to have to work on his hip timing and learn to stay back better to pick up offspeed stuff. He’s a below-average runner with enough arm strength to go to right field. He had a solid debut in the Dominican Summer League, but this year in the Arizona rookie league will tell us more about where his approach is.
20. Jackson Miller, C
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 65 in 2020
Miller missed most of the year dealing with ulcerative colitis, an auto-immune disease of the lower intestine, but he is expected to be ready to go for spring training. He has the potential for a 55 or better hit tool with fringy power (at best), with a strong arm and soft hands to be at least an average defender behind the plate.
Others of note
Right-hander Jared Solomon missed 2021 after Tommy John surgery. He’d been 94-98 mph with a plus slider in instructs the year before, and has added a changeup during his rehab that might give him a better chance to start if he improves his control … Centerfielder Justice Thompson might be a 70 defender in center, and he can hit a fastball, but his recognition of and ability to hit offspeed stuff isn’t there yet. He was a great gamble to take in the sixth round, especially since he played just one year in Division 1 … Right-hander Bryce Bonnin has big-league stuff but comes way across his body and was on the shelf twice in 2021 with arm trouble.
2022 impact
I’m going to predict this is the year we see Greene in the majors. A healthy Lodolo gets there too, although right now that’s unclear. Lopez should be on the bench for the Reds for most if not all of the season.
The fallen
Austin Hendrick will be 21 this year, so his story is far from over, but the Reds’ first-rounder in 2020 is a bat-only guy who didn’t hit in Low A last year, hitting .211/.380/.388 with a 38 percent strikeout rate. He played right field but even first base might be a stretch.
Sleeper
Allen was reasonably close to the top 100 this year. If the production this year matches the reputation, he’ll be on it for 2023.
(Photo of Hunter Greene: Alex Trautwig / MLB via Getty Images)
