With the 2021 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft – we’re just going to go with “the draft,” for short – now in the books, here’s my look at each team’s draft class. I focus on the top ten rounds, since those are the picks that count towards each team’s bonus pool; players taken after the tenth round may be paid up to $125,000 without counting against the bonus pool, so the best prospects taken in rounds 11 through 20 rarely end up signing.
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The number in parentheses after each player’s name indicates the round in which he was taken; the letter A indicates that it was a supplemental pick between rounds, either for losing a free agent or from the competitive balance lottery. I do assume that all players taken in the top ten rounds will sign, although each year there are roughly two to five players who don’t for various reasons.
Finally, I don’t grade drafts; I think that whole idea is absurd. The best I can offer is to tell you that I think teams did well or not well based on what I know about the players available at those picks.
Atlanta
Wake Forest right-hander Ryan Cusick (1) may have had the best overall fastball in the draft — not necessarily the hardest, although he can touch 99 mph, but when you consider velocity and movement together. His curveball has improved since he first got to campus, as has his delivery, although the breaker isn’t consistently plus. He gets good extension from his 6-6 frame as well. He’s a project, both with his command and the third pitch, but he’s shown great aptitude for improvement for the Deacons and should have more upside remaining.
I had Atlanta taking right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach (2) in the first round in all of my mock drafts, so I demand to be given partial credit here. Schwellenbach was a shortstop and closer for Nebraska, up to 97 with a delivery that should allow him to move to the rotation for Atlanta.
Left-hander Dylan Dodd (3) is a 23-year-old fifth-year senior at Southeast Missouri State who is 92-95 with a plus changeup and fringy slider, and walked just 17 in 96 2/3 innings for the Redhawks this year. He’s now the highest-drafted player in SEMO history and could end up a back-end starter.
Shortstop Cal Conley (4) will turn 22 next week, and the fourth-year junior has a flat swing that might generate contact in pro ball but probably not power. He projects as a utility infielder. Shortstop Luke Waddell (5) is a senior sign out of Georgia Tech who hits for contact without power and probably moves to second base in pro ball. A.J. Smith-Shawver (7) is a projection right-hander out of Bobby Witt Jr.’s high school, up to 95 with some feel for a changeup but a curveball that’s a ways off. He’s also a star quarterback, and quarterback/pitchers haven’t had a great track record recently in pro ball.
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Miami Marlins
Miami got a steal at pick 16 when Kahlil Watson (1) fell from a projected top-six selection; if he were 6-feet rather than 5-9, maybe he goes first overall. Watson has five-tool upside, and is a true shortstop with plus speed, bat speed, and very good power for his size. He’s an aggressive hitter but has produced for scouts over the last year.
Prep catcher Joe Mack (1A) started his season late this year but impressed scouts with progress on both sides of the ball; he’s a no-doubt catcher who showed more power this year on top of an already advanced feel to hit. His arm is his best tool on defense but he’s adequate behind the plate now and his hands and feet are good enough to stick there.
Boston College shortstop Cody Morissette (2) was the draft’s most ironic pick. He came into the year as a possible first-rounder, but didn’t hit well in conference play, especially once the book got out that he had trouble with sliders. He swings very hard, opening his hips early, which may be why he isn’t picking up spin right now. He’s 50/50 to stay at short.
Shortstop Jordan McCants (3) has quick hands and a slashing stroke, with a really slender build and no real power projection. He’s enough of a runner to stay at short or maybe end up in center. Right now, though, I’m not sure he has the strength to hit pro fastballs.
Mississippi State rightfielder/first baseman Tanner Allen (4) was a 23-year-old senior who hit .383/.456/.621 for the national champions, but he’s always hit — he hit .349/.426/.516 in 2019 as a junior and was drafted in the 34th round by Colorado. I don’t buy the power, between his size and his wide stance with no stride, but he puts the bat on the ball and runs about average. I’d keep an eye on him.
South Carolina outfielder Brady Allen (5) hit just .275/.375/.516, with a little pop from a short swing, but even with 12 steals in 12 attempts this year he’s a below-average runner and probably has an extra outfielder ceiling.
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Indiana right-hander Gabe Bierman (7) looks like a real sleeper, a four-pitch starter with good spin on both breaking balls and splitter-like action on the changeup, although his fastball velocity is just average. He walked nine in his first two outings, and after that walked 21 in 64 innings with 70 strikeouts the rest of the way.
New York Mets
Wow. The Mets have consistently been among the best drafting teams in baseball for almost a decade now; their current big-league roster includes homegrown draft picks Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, Dom Smith, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Tomás Nido, Jacob deGrom, Tyler Megill, and Seth Lugo, with David Peterson and Corey Oswalt on the IL. And they just landed Kumar Rocker (1), who came into the year as a candidate to go 1-1, with the 10th overall pick, reportedly going over slot to sign him. Rocker isn’t the best prospect in this draft, but he also has the ingredients to be that guy in hindsight — big velocity, a slider that can be a 70, size, athleticism, and enough control. His fastball can get hit, but there are at least ways to remedy that issue. He has to improve his command by a full grade, he could use a better changeup, and more than anything he has to respond better to in-game adversity. I mentioned in my last mock that Gerrit Cole had a lot of the same questions while at UCLA, and he turned out all right. Rocker isn’t where Cole was on draft day, but he’s incredible value at pick 10.
Calvin Ziegler (2) moved from Canada to play in Florida this year and was 93-97 with a plus curveball along with a great delivery that helps him generate and maintain that power. He has to improve his command, and there’s always some bias against 6-foot right-handers. Right-hander Dominic Hamel (3) was a senior at Dallas Baptist, so while he’s probably going to help the Mets save some pool money for Rocker, he’s a solid back-end starter prospect with a four-pitch mix and good secondary data on several of his pitches, with the slider his best chance for a plus weapon.
JT Schwartz (4) performed like a second- or third-round pick, hitting .396/.514/.628 with more walks than strikeouts for UCLA and showing the ability to drive the ball in the air. If he gains a little more strength he could end up with enough hit/walk/power to be a regular even at first base, which is something the Mets sorely need right now, obviously. He’d played just 15 games before this year after redshirting in 2019. Right-hander Christian Scott (5) worked almost exclusively in relief for Florida the last three years, with plus control and a plus slider. I’d like to see what happens if the Mets stretch him out to start; he has a changeup but barely used it in college.
Carson Seymour (6) is another senior, a 6-6 right-hander who can bump 100 with a plus slider and very strong Trackman data but has 35 command; he had a 6.19 ERA this spring for Kansas State, the worst showing of his college career. He seems like a great candidate to push to the bullpen and tell him to air it out. Virginia right-hander Mike Vasil (8) would have had $2 million, maybe closer to $3 million, had he not pulled his name from the draft in 2018 — something Virginia coaches have encouraged recruits to do, a move that certainly helps Virginia coaches but that doesn’t actually help the players themselves. He went to Virginia and regressed; this year he would touch 95-96 but never pitched there, and gave up 101 hits in 81 1/3 innings thanks in part to pitch calling that overused his fastball and changeup and underused his cutter. He could get better in a new system, but that money is never coming back. College coaches do not have your best interests at heart, kids. They have their best interests at heart, because they’re human. Senior right-hander Levi David (9) has a plus-plus breaking ball but walked 46 guys in 61 innings for Northwestern State this year.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies took a high school pitcher in the first round for the second year in a row, which, if you’re reading this, you probably know is not a strategy supported by evidence from draft history. Right-hander Andrew Painter (1) is 6-7 but with great coordination to allow him to repeat his delivery, which is smoother and easier than is typical for kids that size. He’s up to 96 and pitches comfortably at 93-95 with a mid-70s curveball and power changeup. He certainly looks the part of a frontline starter, with projection left and room to improve both secondary pitches as he matures. Ethan Wilson (2) hit 17 homers as a freshman for South Alabama, but lost that power this year, instead becoming one of the toughest hitters to strike out in this draft class; he’s shortened up his swing a little but it’s not a huge difference in his swing or stride, and there has to be some way to get him to drive through the ball again as he did in 2019 without losing all of that discipline at the plate. He’s a left fielder, so he has to hit for some power.
Texas outfielder Jordan Viars (3) was a real surprise in the third round; he’s a good athlete with a plus arm who won’t turn 18 until next week, but he’s maxed out already and limited to a corner outfield spot. Right-hander Micah Ottenbreit (4) is a typical projection high school arm, touching 94 but mostly sitting 90-91, without much power to his curveball yet.
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Griff McGarry (5) started the year in Virginia’s rotation but couldn’t throw enough strikes to hold the job; he returned to starting at the end of the season for two dominant outings in the postseason (14 IP, 5 BB, 18 K, just 3 hits allowed). He’s up to 98 in relief with a plus slider, and if those two outings indicate anything at all, he has No. 2 starter upside, too. Right-hander Jose Pena (6) has a fringy fastball now with projection to both the body and the delivery, the latter of which doesn’t generate any power or rhythm and could be a quick fix to get him some more velocity. Right-hander Christian McGowan (7) was on my top 100 because he has a three-pitch mix, including a fastball at 93-97, with a delivery that might let him stay a starter. He was a third-year player at Eastern Oklahoma State JC, and committed to Texas Tech.
Washington Nationals
The Nats went big with their first pick, as they often do, taking Georgia high school infielder Brady House (1) with the 11th overall pick. House had some of the best exit velocities in the draft class, and he’s still young, just turning 18 a month ago. He’s going to move off shortstop, probably to third base, but the biggest question scouts had on House was the hit tool, as last summer he showed trouble with breaking stuff and seemed to be power over hit.
Daylen Lile (2) has a tough profile for a high school outfielder who’ll move to left in pro ball because he doesn’t have the speed for center or arm for right. He has a mature build and doesn’t have plus power in his body or swing. He has a strong approach and hit well all last summer, but he has to find more power to be a regular. Arizona rightfielder/first baseman Branden Boissiere (3) looks like a tweener – he doesn’t have power, but strikes out too much for a no-power corner bat. Lefty Dustin Saenz (4) was a 22-year-old senior at Texas A&M who moved into the rotation full-time this year, a fastball/slider guy who throws both pitches for strikes and could be a back-end starter if he develops his seldom-used changeup. T.J. White (5) is a left-handed hitting prep outfielder from South Carolina with big power, swinging very hard just about all the time, but his swing isn’t really out of control itself, just the approach. Louisville lefty Michael Kirian (6) is 88-93 with a basket of 45s and not enough command to be more than a minor-league depth starter or emergency callup. Florida outfielder Jacob Young (7) has some bat speed and is a solid average runner, but can’t hit breaking stuff and doesn’t have power. And yes, that’s the Darren Baker (10), Dusty’s son, whom you might remember from the 2002 World Series. It’s a conservative, low-upside draft beyond House.
(Top photo of Kumar Rocker: Jamie Schwaberow / NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
