The Diamondbacks have been trying to thread a difficult needle since Mike Hazen took over as general manager, contending against a juggernaut competitor while also rebuilding a farm system that was barren when Hazen arrived. So far they’ve been very successful at both. Today’s trade for Starling Marte is the fruit of those labors, as they traded two solid prospects from a system that had enough surplus to let them go. The Pirates, meanwhile, might be about to undergo a painful rebuilding, and while this trade helps, it also raises questions about what kind of team they’ll field this year and next.
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Adding Starling Marte allows the Diamondbacks to move Ketel Marte back to the infield, where he can be the regular second baseman and perhaps reduce any impact from the stress reaction in his back that ended his 2019 season. Starling Marte had, prior to 2019, been no worse than an average defender in center, although his UZR for last year was the worst of his career; Statcast’s Outs Above Average had him at +2, which is more in line with his previous seasons. He’s about as good a hitter as you can be while walking roughly once a week, with plus speed that has translated into real value on the bases, above-average power that might play up a little in Phoenix, and very good bat-to-ball skills that dovetail nicely with his bat speed.
The Diamondbacks got very little out of second base last year when Ketel Marte wasn’t playing there, so this trade probably boosts them by at least two wins, closer to three if Starling Marte is really the defender he was two years ago. With Starling Marte under contract for one year plus a team-friendly option, he also remains a very valuable property in trade if they decide to move him at this year’s deadline or next winter, especially if he maintains his small power spike from the ballpark change even though there’s an expectation that power will be down overall as the baseballs change. It cost the Diamondbacks two solid prospects, but they’re also within shouting distance of 90 wins thanks to this move and the signing of Madison Bumgarner.
The Pirates took some risks here, but in terms of future potential, they did well, as both prospects coming back have significant upside. Liover Peguero is a super-athletic 19-year-old who’s already made huge strides developmentally since Arizona signed him, going from someone who was probably headed to the outfield to a very likely long-term shortstop. He’s an aggressive hitter who doesn’t walk or strike out very often, putting the ball in play over 71 percent of the time last year while hitting .326/.382/.485 between two short-season levels in 2019. He makes a lot of hard contact, despite a small hitch that gets his hands a bit low and deep before he brings the bat head forward; this might be part of why he hit the ball on the ground over 50 percent of the time last year. He does have strength, and projects to future power if he can put the ball in the air more. It’s the kind of tool package that could make him a top 5 prospect in the Pirates’ system in a year, depending on what he does at Greensboro, where he’ll play the whole year at age 19.
Brennan Malone was a first-round talent last year who has a good chance to develop into a mid-rotation starter. He’s already at 92-95 mph with a low-80s slider that is his best pitch right now. He has a fast arm and compact arm action with good extension over his front side, although his fastball didn’t miss high school bats the way I expected it to do. He could start in low-A, but unless his stuff changes, he might be better served starting out in extended spring training and then going to short-season instead as he works on fastball command and his changeup. I think the emergence of lefty Blake Walston, who is fast becoming one of Arizona’s top pitching prospects, right before and after the draft made the Diamondbacks more willing to part with Malone.
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At this point, the only Pirates who are going to make more than $5 million in 2020 are Chris Archer and Gregory Polanco, both of whom are probably at relative minimums in terms of trade value. Archer had the worst year of his career in 2019, and Polanco played just 42 games after shoulder surgery, playing worse than replacement level in that span. While they’re essentially tearing the place down to the studs, keeping both players to see if either can improve on a career-low performance makes more sense.
It is fair, however, for the teams contributing money into the revenue sharing pool to ask if the Pirates, whose Opening Day payroll will be down near $50 million if they don’t trade anyone else, should really be pocketing all of the money they’re taking from that source, as the team they field this year will be cheap and non-competitive. The current CBA doesn’t say you only get revenue-sharing payouts if you try to win — but the Pirates, who have long been feeding at the MLB trough, are just the latest in a long string of teams to shed salary and let the higher-payroll teams subsidize their rebuilding.
(Top photo of Starling Marte: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)
