Years of drafting at the end of the first round, or after the first round entirely, have taken a toll on the Red Sox system, although they just traded for their new No. 1 prospect and have found several legitimate prospects beyond the third round in the last few drafts, helping bulk up a system that would otherwise be thin.
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The Top 10
1. Jeter Downs, SS/2B (Top 100 rank: No. 70)
From the Top 100: Downs was part of the big trade that sent Alex Wood and Yasiel Puig to the Reds a year ago, just a year and a half after the Reds took him with the 32nd overall pick in the 2018 draft. He took a big leap forward with the Dodgers last year, leading the California League in doubles (with 33) and homers (with 19) at age 20, even though he was promoted to Double A for the last two weeks of the season — and hit five more homers there. He’s really not a shortstop, but should be above-average at second base or third. And the power he’s shown now, especially after the Dodgers helped him better understand how to manipulate the barrel to drive the ball when he gets the right pitch, will play anywhere. Even after an awful April where he hit .213/.276/.371, he showed no panic at the plate and kept improving his approach, making swing adjustments as the season went on. He’d probably be a star if he could handle shortstop as an everyday player, but even at second or third he should be an above-average regular for a long time.
2. Triston Casas, 1B (Top 100 rank: No. 90)
From the Top 100: Casas was Boston’s first-rounder in 2018 out of a Florida high school and spent 2019 in Low A, where he hit .256/.350/.480 at age 19, good for fifth in all of Low A in slugging percentage. Casas has a solid swing where he can get to real power when he rotates his hips, but he can get locked up on pitches up the zone. He has a real two-strike approach, similar to Juan Soto’s, where he widens his stance substantially and chokes up on the bat to go for contact, which also reduces his power. He has a very good eye for his age, and his approach gets him into a lot of counts where he can hit for power, giving reason to think he’ll get to 30-plus homers in time. He started the season by trying to hit from an extreme crouch, resulting in a .208/.284/.364 line in April, but went on a tear after reverting to his usual stance, showing the power and patience required to profile as at least an above-average regular at first base.
3. Noah Song, RHP
Song was Boston’s fourth-round pick in 2019 out of the Naval Academy, but broke out in a big way after signing, sitting 95-96 with a better breaking ball and a new changeup that was already flashing plus. He was working in shorter stints, but the way the stuff ticked up, along with his history of strike-throwing, moved him to the front of the pack among Sox pitching prospects, with mid-rotation upside. At this writing, however, he’s not going to pitch until 2022 as he completes his two-year obligation to the U.S. Navy.
4. Jason Groome, LHP
Groome, their first-rounder from 2016, returned to action after missing nearly two years due to Tommy John surgery, back up to 95 mph but without the plus-plus curveball he’d shown before the operation. If that returns with more time, he’ll be back on track to be an above-average starter.
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5. Jarren Duran, OF
Duran was Boston’s big breakout prospect for 2019, a seventh–rounder and an 80 runner who should end up an above-average centerfielder given more reps there. He’s a slap hitter now, with power he’s not going to reach with his current swing and setup; he crushed High A before a mid-year promotion to Double A, where he struggled at first but gradually started making more contact. He has solid fourth outfielder potential right now, but to be a regular he either has to get to more power or cut his strikeouts.
6. Thad Ward, RHP
Ward was their fifth-rounder in the same draft as Duran, 2018, and dominated High A as well before moving to Double A and continuing to miss bats. He’s 92-96 with sink and an out pitch in his slider, along with deception in the delivery.
7. Bobby Dalbec, 3B
Dalbec might end up a regular thanks to his absurd power and defense at third, where he’ll show a 55 glove and at least a 70 arm. There’s always going to be swing and miss here, maybe too much for him to be an everyday guy, but he deserves a lot of credit for cutting his strikeout rate as much as he has, to the point where we can even think of him as a regular.
8. Gilberto Jimenez, OF
Jimenez is an 80 runner with a high-contact approach that doesn’t generate any power; there should be some power in there and if he learns to stay back and drive the ball some more. He could end up a regular or better thanks to the speed and his defense in center.
9. Bryan Mata, RHP
Mata has premium stuff, up to 98, with a very tough delivery from a stiff landing to a late, slinging arm swing from a low slot. Left-handed hitters already get to him and I don’t think he can repeat that arm action enough for starter-level command.
10. Tanner Houck, RP
Houck is a dominant reliever in the making with two pitches and an arm slot that is tough on right-handers. His changeup hasn’t come, and I don’t think he can turn a lineup over three times.
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The Next 10
11. Matthew Lugo, SS
Boston’s second pick last year, taken late in the second round, Lugo is a toolsy shortstop from Puerto Rico who might have gone higher had he not scuffled in the high-profile Excellence Games tournament a month before the draft. He has a good line-drive swing for hard contact across the middle of the field, above-average speed, and good hands to stay at short.
12. Chris Murphy, LHP
Murphy has been up to 95, with an above-average curveball and feel for a changeup, but scouts felt he was mishandled at the University of San Diego, so he slipped to the sixth round in 2019. He took to the change in coaching quite well, cutting his walk rate from 15 percent in college to just over 5 percent in the New York-Penn League. He has fourth starter potential if he can keep this going.
13. CJ Chatham, SS
Chatham is a nice utility player who can handle shortstop and might hit for an empty .300 average in a good season, without power or OBP.
14. Cam Cannon, SS/2B
Their first pick last year, also in the second round, Cannon is a polished bat from the University of Arizona who swung and missed more last summer than expected, partly because the Sox are trying to work with him to stop loading so much over his back leg. He’s going to work at second base, which is his best chance for a skill position.
15. Andrew Politi, RHP
The Sox found the perfect way to help Politi, their 15th-round pick from 2018; his stuff took a jump and pitched better in longer outings, so they moved him to the rotation, where he was close to unhittable. He’s at 94-96 mph with an above-average breaking ball, good deception in the delivery, and better control when he starts. He’ll need a better third pitch to end up in the rotation.
16. Ryan Zeferjahn, RHP
Zeferjahn has an elite fastball but lacks average command or a quality second pitch, so he’ll probably move to the bullpen in short order.
17. Nick Decker, OF
Decker played in just two games in his first summer, so 2019 was really his debut, and he was just OK for short-season Lowell at age 19, showing power and a little patience but striking out in 30 percent of his plate appearances. Boston took him out of a New Jersey private school, so he’s behind the curve (pun intended) when it comes to picking up spin.
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18. Chih-Jung Liu, RHP
Liu signed for $750,000 this offseason, has hit 100 mph for scouts and topped out at 98 in a tournament this past fall. He took two years off from pitching to recover from heavy use when he was younger, but the time off helped. He gets on top of the ball well and has a promising circle-change and a show-me curveball.
19. Connor Wong, C/UT
A utility man with a different profile, Wong is capable of catching on a semi-regular basis and has experience at second and third. He strikes out too much to be a regular even behind the plate but has value in his flexibility and power.
20. Brayan Bello, RHP
Bello gets guys out with average stuff, working in the low 90s with a fringy breaking ball and change. He struck out a man an inning in Low A but will be hard-pressed to repeat that at higher levels without better stuff.
Others of note
They took infielder Jonathan Arauz in the Rule 5 draft; he’s a dynamic player with an idea at the plate and bat speed, but his production has lagged because he’s always been young for his levels and he’s missed time due to a suspension for a positive test for a banned stimulant. … Right-hander Alex Scherff had a disappointing year overall despite some dominant outings; he’s up to 98, but inconsistent within starts and from game to game, and still lacks an average third pitch to go with his fastball and changeup. … Their third-round pick from 2018, Durbin Feltman, was supposed to be a quick-to-the-majors college reliever, but we all know how often that works out, right? Feltman walked 31 in 51-1/3 innings in Double-A and regressed as the season went on. He can show two above-average to plus pitches but has trouble getting lefties out.
2020 impact
They might be younger in the majors this year, but the Sox probably won’t see much impact from the system unless they push someone like Houck or Mata to the bullpen and bring them up.
Sleeper
I liked their 2019 draft quite a bit; Lugo has the best upside of their lower-tier prospects, while Murphy looks like he might have been a steal in the sixth round. I’d give Lugo the best chance to turn into a top 100 prospect a year from now.
(Photo of Dalbec: Joel Auerbach/Getty Images)
