The Reds and the Rockies gave us our first significant trade of this dormant offseason, exchanging major-league relievers who both seem likely to garner significant time with their new team’s bullpens.
The Rockies do nothing so often as they acquire relievers, generally overpaying for them in free agency and sometimes doing so in trades, although this time I think they paid a reasonable price. Robert Stephenson was a first-rounder way back in 2011, and was a high-end starting pitching prospect until he reached Triple A, where he seemed to hit a developmental wall, losing command and overusing his split-change. The Reds moved him to the bullpen full-time in 2019 and he had his best year in the majors, but 2020 was a disaster: he gave up 8 homers in 10 innings, allowing five of those homers on fastballs — and since he threw 53 fastballs all season, that’s more than one homer for every 11 fastballs he threw. That is … not great, Bob.
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His stuff is still electric, and it’s likely that some of his 2020 struggles were due to a back injury that put him on the IL for a month, or just the short season and truncated warm-up period before it. I’m fine betting on his arsenal; his slider is plus, with spin rates in the 2,800s, and his fastball and splitter were both at least above-average in 2019. But his delivery has always had some violence to it and he will probably never see average command or control. He could be a high-leverage reliever if 2020 is indeed an outlier, and he can miss a lot of bats with his repertoire, something the Rockies always need from their pitchers given what happens when batters put the ball in play at Coors. Now that he’s with Colorado, perhaps he’ll pitch alongside Rockies prospect Admiral Ben Bowden.
The Rockies also pick up Jameson Hannah, whom the Reds acquired a year ago for Tanner Roark. A former second-round pick, Hannah might be a fourth outfielder at best, as he doesn’t have the speed or defensive skills to play center or the power to play in a corner.
Jeff Hoffman was always a bad fit for the Rockies, who acquired him in the trade that sent Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto, as Hoffman’s fastball is flat and he has little deception in his delivery. He can show above-average spin on the four-seamer but it’s not consistent and he ends up with as many fastballs with average spin as he does with high spin, which could be an opportunity for the Reds’ coaching staff. His curveball hasn’t been very good since the trade, although that could be a function of the Rockies’ home park. He’ll need some sort of better third pitch to keep right-handed batters from continuing to destroy him — right-handed batters have hit .321/.411/.620 off him away from home in his career. He’s very athletic and still has arm strength and enough in the four-seam spin and changeup to see the possible upside here. He does have some injury history, though, undergoing Tommy John surgery while in college and he missed much of 2018 with a sore shoulder.
The Reds also received the Rockies’ fourth-round pick from 2020, right-handed pitcher Case Williams, a Colorado high school kid who had improved his conditioning over the winter but never got a chance to pitch in games last spring, which could have improved his draft stock. Prior to the shutdown, he showed a clean arm action, a 12/6 curveball with good spin and average velocity on his fastball, with projection remaining. He’s an interesting gamble for the Reds, probably more valuable than the fourth-round status implies.
Atlanta has been the only team active in free agency so far, signing Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly to one-year deals to bolster their pitching staff. The Morton deal seems entirely in line with GM Alex Anthopoulos’ successful one-year contracts with Josh Donaldson (in 2019) and Marcell Ozuna (in 2020), offering players coming off down years a chance to re-establish their value and/or prove they were healthy so they could go back out in free agency a year later on a better platform. Morton is 37, so there might not be another multi-year deal in his future, but if he has an effective and healthy 2021, it’s at least possible. Rich Hill got three years at age 37, with less of a track record than Morton has now. Morton did miss a few weeks with a sore shoulder in August, but was better after the time off, throwing harder than he did prior to the IL stint and missing more bats. He’s still probably not the pitcher he was prior to 2020, but I think he’d be a very good five-inning/twice-through-the-order starter for a team with the ability to use him in that judicious manner — which Atlanta could.
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Smyly’s deal was the bigger surprise, as his major-league tenure has been characterized more by frequent injuries (including missing all of 2017 and 2018) than by on-field success, but he was pretty dominant for the Giants in a swing role last year. His curveball and cutter were both out pitches, and he worked up to 5 innings in his last two starts of the year. Atlanta shouldn’t bank on Smyly taking 30 turns in the rotation, but he could fulfill a swing role for them as well, working in long relief or as an occasional starter, especially as they try to manage the workloads of Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright over a full season.
(Photo of Robert Stephenson: Benny Sieu / USA Today)
