I’ve done extensive predictions of every upcoming Major League Baseball season for at least the last twelve years, with standings and award winners and the like, and despite the fact that I always point out that these are for entertainment purposes only and I have no actual effect on the games or any individual players, people still get mad about them. Those same people won’t see me mocking them because none of them ever reads the intro anyway; they just hit Ctrl-F and look for how many wins I predicted their favorite team will get this year. Unless I start to throw a lot harder in the next 48 hours, though, nothing I do or say will make one iota of difference to the real-world standings, so just enjoy the predictions below for what they are.
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American League
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
94 | 68 | |
91 | 71 | |
88 | 74 | |
82 | 80 | |
61 | 101 |
The Blue Jays have certainly done the most to improve their club this winter out of everyone in the division, although they also suffered the biggest loss to free agency (Cy Young winner Robbie Ray) and thus had the most urgency. They signed one of the best starters in the majors last year, Kevin Gausman, to replace Ray. They filled their third-base hole with Matt Chapman, while signing Chapman and José Berrios to contract extensions, and adding Yusei Kikuchi for the back of the rotation despite his terrible collapse in the second half. Add in some likely development from holdovers like Alejandro Kirk and Alek Manoah and that should give them a few more wins than their total of 91 from last year, which left them one win shy of the playoffs, especially since their run differential pointed to a much higher win total.
The Yankees made minor moves this winter but not the big splash their fans wanted, coming off a season where things generally went right for the team – Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton both played nearly the whole year, Gerrit Cole made 30 starts and was among the top pitchers in the league, and the bullpen was strong – and they still only outscored their opponents by 42 runs. They’re banking on several players to be regulars who haven’t played at that level before, or haven’t done so in years; and have Luis Severino, who has thrown 18 innings since 2018, in their Opening Day rotation. They’re banking on a lot of health, as they lack the depth to handle lost playing time for players who have, unfortunately, histories of missing time with injury.
The Rays traded Austin Meadows for Isaac Paredes and a draft pick on Monday, freeing up a spot for Josh Lowe to make the Opening Day roster, and they may not be done making moves. But as they stand now, they will probably not match last year’s run prevention (651 runs allowed). Tyler Glasnow is out, Rich Hill is gone and two of their five starters right now have significant injury histories, while Shane Baz is recovering from minor elbow surgery. I know they have worked a lot of magic in recent years, and the way they deploy pitchers is part of their success, but their efforts to make at least one major acquisition this winter didn’t pan out. They look like they’ll take a step back from their 2021 season, too.
The Red Sox’s rotation looks like a real weakness this year – and yes, I probably said that last year too – with Chris Sale on the shelf and a lot riding on guys like Nick Pivetta and Michael Wacha, neither of whom projects to be a league-average starter this year. The development of Tanner Houck’s splitter might be the most important single factor for Boston’s season, as it’s the difference between him being a long reliever with a huge platoon split or someone who could be a league-average (or better) starter.
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The Orioles are still in building mode, and it appears that they won’t have any of their better prospects on the Opening Day roster now that Adley Rutschman is on the shelf. They added Jordan Lyles … and that’s it. They were a 54-win team by Pythagorean record last year, and I’m only projecting improvement because I expect them to field a better team in the second half this year, with Rutschman, Joey Ortiz, Grayson Rodriguez and maybe one or two other prospects coming up to help.
The White Sox will face more of a challenge to win the division this year, with three of the other four teams making significant additions through free agency and/or trades, but Chicago won the division by 13 games last year and I don’t think any team has closed that gap. The Sox haven’t done much to improve the team this offseason, adding some relief help and moving Craig Kimbrel’s bad contract for A.J. Pollock, although that now gives them one more outfielder/DH than they need. They underperformed their Pythagorean by four wins last year, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do so again.
Give the Twins credit: Despite a season that went wrong from the outset in 2021, they are all in again for 2022, adding the offseason’s best free agent in Carlos Correa and boosting the rotation with Sonny Gray, although the story of Minnesota’s 2022 will come down to the health of some of the players who were already here. Full seasons from Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff will go a long way to making the Twins contenders again. Their weakness is still the rotation, even with the Gray matter, and if they need another starter due to injury or non-performance – fifth starter Griffin Jax had a 6-plus ERA last year and allowed a homer every 3.5 innings – their options aren’t great.
The Royals and Tigers both approached 2022 as the start of their windows of contention, and while in both cases they might be a year early, we should all applaud them for leaning into it like this. The Royals are putting Bobby Witt Jr. on the Opening Day roster, skipping service time games because this will make them a better team now. They added a reliever with some upside left in Amir Garrett, brought Zack Greinke back home, and should see improvement from at least one of those young starters in the rotation – I’ve already tabbed Daniel Lynch as a breakout candidate, so he’s my pick. I also expect to see Nick Pratto here before June 1, as he’d be an improvement over Carlos Santana at first base on both sides of the ball.
The Guardians just won’t spend any money, so while there’s talent on the way, they’re going to slip behind the Royals and Tigers because they’re waiting on their future stars rather than building out a contending roster right now. I could see improvement from within, with talented players like Triston McKenzie, Zach Plesac, Josh Naylor and Amed Rosario all still short of expectations from their propsect days, but they won’t all pan out right away, and I’m betting José Ramírez is somewhere else by Aug. 1.
(Editor’s note: The Guardians decided to prove Keith wrong Wednesday morning by agreeing to a five-year extension with Ramírez right after seeing this prediction.)
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The Tigers’ big signings this winter will make the team more watchable right now, but nothing is as important to their outcome as Spencer Torkelson, who should get all of the work at first base this year and marks the beginning of their wave of top position player prospects. Outfielder Riley Greene is out with a broken foot, but he and infielder Ryan Kreidler should be in the lineup by midseason. Their two big free agent signings, Jávier Báez and Eduardo Rodríguez, do help but come with caveats – Báez doesn’t address their team on-base percentage problem (.308 last year, 10th in the AL), and Rodríguez offers upside but has a history of knee problems. The returning player to watch is Casey Mize, who didn’t miss many bats last year and probably needs to use his wipeout splitter more often to do so.
| Teams | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
92 | 70 | |
85 | 77 | |
83 | 79 | |
75 | 87 | |
59 | 103 |
The Astros won 95 games last year, with a run differential big enough for a 101-win Pythagorean total, so while they got worse this winter – losing Correa and Greinke to free agency, with Lance McCullers Jr. out once again with arm soreness – they’re still the best team in this division. I don’t think this formula lasts forever, but I do believe they have one more year of a buffer before the Mariners, in particular, catch up. Handing Jeremy Peña the shortstop job is gutsy, but he’s remade himself as a hitter and I’m hopeful he can give them something like league-average production in what will probably be a limited workload.
The Mariners did everything they could to get better, signing Robbie Ray, trading for Jesse Winker and now adding future star Julio Rodríguez to the Opening Day roster, marking three of the top 10 overall prospects in baseball who will make their major-league debuts on Opening Day (Julio, Witt and Torkelson). They were also outscored by 51 runs last year, and their total of 90 wins was the product of some good fortune that isn’t likely to recur. I do think they’ll get internal improvement from Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert, and they might lead the league in fun differential, but I’d put their playoff odds a bit under 25 percent.
The Angels should score a bunch more runs this year, getting more production from a healthy Mike Trout and a healthy Anthony Rendon, while seeing some improvement from Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh, but the rotation is just not playoff-worthy unless several guys really surprise us. Noah Syndergaard might be effective, but you can’t project a full season of work on him after two years lost to Tommy John surgery, and he’s arguably their No. 2 starter. I would like to believe we’ll see more from Reid Detmers in 2022 as he adjusts to the big-league baseball.
The Rangers also made a huge push to improve their club in free agency, signing a whole new middle infield and one of the most intriguing starters on the market – I think everyone wants to see what Jon Gray can do away from altitude and with a different organization. They were also a 100-loss team last year, and even the 16-win improvement I’m projecting here seems optimistic. I just don’t see how they could get to .500 when they were outscored by nearly 200 runs last year and their rotation isn’t that different, with Gray replacing Jordan Lyles and without 19 starts of Kyle Gibson this time.
I’m sorry, Oakland fans. You will have some fun individual players to watch this year – Cristian Pache can play the hell out of centerfield, Kevin Smith is ready to play every day now and returning catcher Sean Murphy is just short of a star – but MLB needs to just move this team already. Or perhaps Congress will actually act on the antitrust exemption so the A’s can move themselves. In a winter in which multiple 2021 non-contenders went out and spent money to improve their clubs (Tigers, Twins, Rangers), the A’s are tanking. Even though they’re getting good value in some of the returns, this isn’t good for baseball.
Awards
AL MVP: Carlos Correa
It’d be a hell of a narrative if Correa just has the same season he did last year and is then credited for “carrying” the Twins to the playoffs (even though he’d have a lot of help if they do so). Other candidates include the obvious ones of Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Judge.
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
He probably should have won last year, not that Ray wasn’t deserving, Cole was just a shade better, as was Gausman. Dark horse candidate: Lucas Giolito, although his home park doesn’t help his case.
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AL Rookie of the Year: Spencer Torkelson
Take your pick – Torkelson, Witt, Rodríguez, Peña, perhaps Rutschman if he doesn’t miss too much of the season, even Lowe or Greene could sneak into this. We’re going to see a ton of great rookies in the AL this year.
National League
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
93 | 69 | |
88 | 74 | |
84 | 78 | |
80 | 82 | |
71 | 91 |
Atlanta comes off the surprising World Series win with a very different-looking team – no Freddie Freeman at first, Kenley Jansen wearing a uniform other than the Dodgers’ for the first time – but despite the drastic changes, I don’t think they’re any worse off, and the division may not have caught up to them yet. Matt Olson is a strong replacement for Freeman at first, likely to be a little more valuable than Freeman this year, and I wouldn’t underestimate the value of Collin McHugh as a swingman for a staff that’s likely to shuffle through some starters. I would bet that one of their nascent young starters takes a leap this year, but I would be dishonest if I said I had a sense of who. I just believe that a collection of talent like Kyle Wright, Touki Toussaint, Kyle Muller and Tucker Davidson is too good for everyone to stagnate for another year, and they have pitching depth in the minors behind that group.
The Mets are better, and they’ll probably benefit from natural regression (progression?) toward the mean from Francisco Lindor, but I’m not terribly confident in a rotation where the first guy is already on the shelf, and the second guy is on the shelf for less time but is 37.5 years old, and the fourth and fifth guys have spent more than their fair share of time on the injured list in recent years, too. They’re asking a lot of their remaining starters and despite an aggressive winter find themselves without much margin for error in the rotation. I do think they’ll score a lot more runs this year, and they’ll win 10-12 more games, and people will give undue credit to the manager rather than the players.
The Phillies are also going to score a lot more runs but will have the worst defense of any contending team in baseball, and one of the worst defensive units, period, with flat-out bad defenders at as many as five positions, depending on who plays where. It’s a bold strategy, Cotton, but when Nick Castellanos misplays another drive into deep left field, I doubt it’s going to go over well with the Phillies pitchers or their fans. The bullpen should be somewhat better again this year. And a full year of Zach Eflin, who was quietly very good in 19 starts last year, would help, although he relies on his defense more than Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola does.
The Marlins will be fun to watch, but probably not more than fringe contenders, with several very talented, high-upside players from Jazz Chisholm (a potential star if he ever learns to recognize spin more effectively) to Jesús Sanchez to Jesús Luzardo, and that’s ignoring Edward Cabrera (optioned to triple A this week). But I don’t think it adds up to a team that’ll outscore its opponents, not least because their outfield defense is going to be really bad, and they may very well be last in the National League in on-base percentage again (.298 last year).
The Nationals signed Nelson Cruz, which is fun. I’d tune in to watch Juan Soto hit, and I think both Keibert Ruiz and Josiah Gray will make some progress this year, but they’re going to give up 850-plus runs this year. With Stephen Strasburg coming off surgery to repair thoracic outlet syndrome, an operation that often sees pitchers returning in reduced form, it won’t take much for the Nats to allow the most runs in the National League.
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
91 | 71 | |
83 | 79 | |
80 | 82 | |
77 | 85 | |
62 | 100 |
The Brewers are the most anonymous great team in baseball right now, and I know market size and TV bias toward showing certain teams is a factor, but I think it’s also the way they go about it: The Brewers are a run-prevention machine, with three incredible pitchers and outstanding defense, but their most famous player is a guy who hasn’t been good since fouling a ball off his own knee in September 2019. Their depth chart listings for first base as I write this are a thing of unspeakable beauty: Rowdy Tellez, Keston Hiura, Mike Brosseau, Jace Peterson, Tyler White and Jonathan Singleton. It’s a glorious list of hasn’t-beens and a perfect indication of how the Brewers feel about paying for production at that position.
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The Cubs traded everyone at the deadline last year, but they went right back out into free agency this winter, signing Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki, while also trading for Wade Miley and making some minor signings that offer a little upside, enough that I think they could sneak over .500 in a division that’s down at the moment. I don’t see a real path to contention here unless, say, Nico Hoerner and Clint Frazier both have big breakout years, but I also think they’ll be more competitive than most teams are a year after a fire sale, and that’s good for their fans and the sport in general.
I might be too pessimistic on the Cardinals, but right now this team doesn’t look that healthy, and I worry they’re going to futz around too long with the nostalgia show of Albert Pujols, who hasn’t been worth 0.5 WAR in any season since 2016. They’re not going to get much production at all from the middle infield, their best starter is injured, and their best hitter from last year, Tyler O’Neill, is highly likely to regress for multiple reasons, not the least is his extreme willingness to chase out of the zone.
The Reds are still going to field a good team despite the owner’s demands to pare payroll, which left them giving Wade Miley away and probably getting less talent in return than they should have for Sonny Gray and Jesse Winker (although each deal netted one good pitching prospect). If Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo both surprise with strong rookie years, as each is capable of doing given their pure stuff, they could surprise and sneak into the 80-win range. If they play Jose Barrero as their primary shortstop, that’s a huge upgrade over the now-traded Eugenio Suárez, at least on defense.
The Pirates are building, but they’re going to be bad again this year, a bit worse if they deal Bryan Reynolds, which they should from a baseball and business perspective. Getting ONeil Cruz up will help – for folks who don’t listen to The Athletic Baseball Show podcast, I said on a recent episode that I believe I ranked Cruz too low this winter, overweighting the questions about his size and lack of a clear position – but other than maybe boasting good infield defense, I’m not sure the Pirates will do anything at a league-average level this year, and their rotation could be awful.
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
100 | 62 | |
91 | 71 | |
85 | 77 | |
72 | 90 | |
61 | 101 |
Is there anything I can tell you about the Dodgers that you don’t already know? They’re the best team in baseball and they have more depth to weather injuries than most teams do. Bobby Miller is hitting 102 with a four-pitch mix and security might escort him out of Dodger Stadium if he showed up there. Of their eight projected starting position players, six were All-Stars last year, and only Will Smith has never made an All-Star team. Cody Bellinger is the one problem they face, and if they choose to do something drastic – send him down, maybe keep him in Glendale for swing work – they can fade his loss quite easily.
The Padres will miss Fernando Tatis Jr., but they’ve built a very good team around him and have C.J. Abrams available to fill in – not replacing Tatis’s full value, of course, but playing better defense and providing something with the bat and his speed, too. They should get more out of a healthy Yu Darvish and now have Sean Manaea to bolster their rotation, which might allow them to move on from Chris Paddack. The best thing they could do now would be to bench Eric Hosmer and play any of their multiple alternatives at first instead.
The Giants won 107 games last year, and it wasn’t a fluke, as their Pythagorean record was 103-59, but they don’t bring back anywhere near the same roster. Buster Posey retired, and Kevin Gausman left as a free agent, taking about 9 wins of value with them right off the bat (pun intended, as mine usually are). San Francisco hasn’t been idle, but its additions have been smaller ones on the margins, and if bounceback guys like Brandon Crawford (6.1 WAR!) come back partway to earth, I don’t think they have the upside potential to get back to 90-plus wins again. I do expect to see some Giants outperform their projections, but just not enough to replace what’s been lost.
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The Diamondbacks are headed in the right direction, but, as with the Pirates, the major-league product may not be very good this year. Their best starter, Zac Gallen, was slowed early in spring training by a sore shoulder, and even if he’s healthy, he’s their only starter with a chance to be above-average. They do have one actual star in Ketel Marte, recently signed to a fair contract extension, and Daulton Varsho might become one in time. The real key for them is when the wave of arms, led by the three on my top 100 this winter in Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt, arrive in the majors – perhaps by mid-summer.
The Rockies made a huge splash with the Kris Bryant signing, and he might hit 50 home runs there – I hope he does, actually, as that would be a reason to watch. Once again, the Rockies have a below-average offense, which you would think would be hard to do in Denver, and might have an above-average rotation that will be undermined by what is probably going to be the worst defensive team Colorado has fielded since before the Nolan Arenado/Trevor Story era began. They did lose Jon Gray to free agency, but he was their least effective starter by a tiny margin last year, and I think they can work around that if it’s just the fifth starter spot. They’re going to have a hard time sniffing 800 runs, even with the benefit of altitude, and the division in which they play will not be forgiving.
Awards
NL MVP: Juan Soto
It’s a boring pick, but he’s the second-best player in the NL, and the best player in the NL is out because he tried to pop a wheelie.
NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler
Corbin Burnes was outstanding last year, and so was Zack Wheeler, but I’m also a bit skeptical of any pitcher, no matter how good, repeating the kind of upper-bound performances we saw from those two, simply because of the natural wear and tear of the job and the unfathomable ability of major-league hitters today. Buehler wasn’t far behind those two and I think he’ll see a small bump in his strikeout rate going forward.
NL Rookie of the Year: C.J. Abrams
As strong as the AL rookie crop is, the NL’s best rookies for 2022 are mostly starting in the minors, with the notable exceptions of those two Cincinnati arms and Abrams, who may be the beneficiary of Tatis’ injury and the Padres’ relative weakness in the outfield corners. Abrams could play some short and fill in at all three outfield spots. Among prospects optioned to the minors, O’Neil Cruz has the most offensive upside for this year, but I just don’t know when the Pirates will call him back up.
Playoffs
N.Y. Yankees over Tampa Bay
Chicago White Sox over Minnesota
Milwaukee over San Diego
N.Y. Mets over San Francisco
Toronto over N.Y. Yankees
Chicago White Sox over Houston
L.A. Dodgers over N.Y. Mets
Milwaukee over Atlanta
Toronto over Chicago White Sox
L.A. Dodgers over Milwaukee
World Series:
Toronto over L.A. Dodgers
I mean, picking the Dodgers wouldn’t be any fun, would it?
(Photo of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
