Redrafting the 2012 MLB Draft: Carlos Correa vs. Byron Buxton? Corey Seager in the top 3?

The 2012 draft class looked poor in comparison to the three that came before it, and time hasn’t changed that view much – it just wasn’t a great draft class, not at the top, not below. It has produced a couple of stars, but as for regulars, whether hitters or pitchers, it’s at least below the median. There are a few high school draftees from this class who are just starting to enter their peak years, which will help, but I think the final reckoning on the 2012 draft will be that it just wasn’t very good.

This is a “redraft,” in which I try to reselect the top 30 picks based on what we know of the last 10 years and what I think these players might do for the remainder of their careers. I don’t include players who didn’t sign, and I don’t think about service time considerations (when you draft a player, you only control the first six-plus years of his career). I’m just going big picture here. While I cite players’ Wins Above Replacement figures throughout (using Baseball-Reference), I didn’t just rank the players by their WAR totals; a few times I deviated quite a bit from those rankings. There’s an age gap here of almost five years from the youngest player on the list (Carlos Correa) to the oldest (Jacob Stallings), which matters when we’re projecting forward for what these players might still do.

I’ll follow up with a column on the “misses” of the first round, although there were very few true whiffs this year.

1. Houston: Carlos Correa, SS

Correa’s draft position: 1st round, 1st pick, Houston
Career WAR: 34.8 (Baseball-Reference)

I had Byron Buxton as the top prospect in the draft class, with Carlos Correa No. 2 on my list, but the Astros ended up with the best player, taking Correa, a 17-year-old high school player from Puerto Rico, with the first pick. Mike Elias was the special assistant to GM Jeff Luhnow at the time, formally becoming director of amateur scouting after the season, and he was running the draft room in 2012. This was his first pick, and it was a controversial one, with many scouts and other teams ranking Correa outside of the top five — Baseball America ranked him sixth, for a third-party example. So the selection was a surprise, and some of the immediate reaction was that the Astros were simply being cheap. There has never been any actual evidence to support that, and his performance to date, leading all other members of the class in WAR by a margin of more than 50 percent, has more than justified the pick.

Correa was over a year younger than Buxton at the time of the draft, and his adviser was willing to take a substantial discount to the slot value at the first pick, allowing the Astros to save several million dollars relative to slot (he signed for $1.2 million less than Buxton did), and sign Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz to over-slot deals. Correa became the first player drafted in the top-15 picks directly from Puerto Rico, and is already the fifth-most valuable Puerto Rican draftee by WAR (behind Carlos Beltrán, Javier Vazquez, Yadier Molina and Edwin Encarnación). His ascent to the majors was only interrupted by a broken leg he suffered in 2014; by his age-20 season in 2015, he played 99 games in the majors, winning Rookie of the Year honors. Now teammates with Buxton in Minnesota, Correa is still just 27 years old, and he’s already had half a Hall of Fame career.

2. Minnesota: Byron Buxton, OF

Buxton’s draft position: 1st round, 2nd pick (Minnesota)
Career WAR: 17.6

I don’t think this has ever happened since I began doing these redrafts a decade or so ago: The top two picks were, in hindsight, the correct top two picks, in my opinion. I’m giving Buxton, who is still the fastest amateur player I’ve ever seen in person, the edge over a few guys with higher WAR totals to date because he has the best chance of anyone on this list to put up a 9-WAR season – he did that, sort of, in 2021, with 4.5 WAR in just 61 games, and he’s on an 8-plus WAR pace this season so far. He’s been extremely injury-prone in his career, qualifying for the batting title just once in the majors, but when he’s in the lineup he’s one of the best and most exciting players in baseball.

3. Seattle: Corey Seager, SS

Player selected: Mike Zunino, C
Seager’s draft position: 1st round, 18th pick (L.A. Dodgers)
Career WAR: 22.3

Seager was a tough sign and everyone knew he was likely to ask for well over slot, but he has certainly been worth the cost – and concerns that he was too big for shortstop and likely to move to third base, concerns I absolutely shared at the time, proved unfounded. He was pretty advanced as a hitter when he came into the system and the Dodgers helped him stay strong on his front side after a 2013 season that was good for his age but perhaps a bit below expectations. He’s had injury struggles, like Buxton, including Tommy John surgery that wiped out almost all of 2018 and likely contributed to a subpar 2019. But his 2020-21 performance was much more in line with his production prior to the injury and seems like a positive sign for his production with the Rangers.

4. Baltimore: Matt Olson, 1B

Player selected: Kevin Gausman, RHP
Olson’s draft position: Supplemental round, 47th pick (Oakland)
Career WAR: 19.0

Great job by the A’s here, as Olson was in one of the riskiest categories in the draft: a high school first baseman with no chance to go to the outfield, and one already with some swing and miss in his game at that. Olson came out of Parkview High School in suburban Atlanta, and has passed Jeff Francoeur as that school’s most valuable alumnus, which is funny because Olson draws more walks in a month than Francoeur did in his career.

5. Kansas City: Max Fried, LHP

Player selected: Kyle Zimmer, RHP
Fried’s draft position: 1st round, 7th pick (San Diego)
Career WAR: 13.4

The Padres spent a lot of prospects in the last two years to build out their rotation, which is ironic given that Fried, now the ace of the world champions, was already in the system when A.J. Preller took over as GM. Fried was the top healthy high school pitcher in the class, with a true curveball and good delivery, as well as very evident athleticism – he fielded his position well and was a pretty good hitter for a high school pitcher. Fried went to Atlanta in the trade for Justin Upton, had Tommy John surgery and didn’t truly establish himself in the majors until 2019. But since the start of that season, he’s posted a 3.34 ERA in 77 starts, racked up 11.6 WAR and looks like he’s only getting better.

6. Chicago Cubs: Lucas Giolito, RHP

Player selected: Albert Almora, OF
Giolito’s draft position: 1st round, 16th pick (Washington)
Career WAR: 11.2

Giolito hurt his elbow in March 2012, and that allowed him to slide to the Nationals, where Mike Rizzo was definitely not letting the guy who was in the running to be the first right-handed high school pitcher ever to go 1-1 get past him. Giolito threw one inning that summer before his elbow went, but after Tommy John, some weird delivery stuff in the Nats’ system and a trade to the White Sox, he’s had a pair of 4-plus WAR seasons in 2019 and 2021. You probably know this already, but he and Fried were high school teammates at Harvard-Westlake.

7. San Diego: Marcus Stroman, RHP

Player selected: Max Fried, LHP
Stroman’s draft position: 1st round, 22nd pick (Toronto)
Career WAR: 17.5

Stroman would have been a top 10 pick if he were 6-foot-1, but the bias against short right-handers runs very deep, with Sonny Gray (22.8 WAR) falling to the 18th pick in 2011. Stroman was more four-seamer/curveball in college, adopting the sinker after he joined the Blue Jays, but his athleticism and competitiveness were his big selling points. The story goes that the Cardinals were prepared to take Stroman with the 23rd pick, only to see Toronto pick their pockets, which is how the Cards ended up scrambling and taking outfielder James Ramsey.

Marcus Stroman (Kevin Sousa / USA Today Sports)

8. Pittsburgh: Kevin Gausman, RHP

Player selected: Mark Appel, RHP
Gausman’s draft position: 1st round, 4th pick (Baltimore)
Career WAR: 17.6

Gausman was just better than Appel that spring, with a dominant changeup and very strong performance as a draft-eligible sophomore for LSU. After some lost years with the Orioles’ major-league coaching staff, Gausman got himself straightened out with San Francisco and parlayed that into a five-year contract with Toronto this winter. This is where the ill-fated pick of Mark Appel happened, even though the Pirates had never had any contact with Appel or his family prior to the draft, which didn’t get negotiations off on a good note, to put it mildly. Appel came into that spring as a potential 1-1 candidate but his performance was just slightly less than what scouts expected from him, and looking back, we probably had some early signs that his fastball was more hittable than its pure velocity implied. The Pirates used the compensation pick they got for failing to sign Appel to draft Austin Meadows in 2013.

9. Miami: Jose Berrios, RHP

Player selected: Andrew Heaney, LHP
Berrios’ draft position: Supplemental 1st round, 32nd pick (Minnesota)
Career WAR: 11.2

The 2012 draft has been the best year for Puerto Rican talent since the draft annexed the island in 1993, producing the No. 1 pick (Correa), Berrios just after the first round, and two more players in the top 100 selections in Jesmuel Valentin and Edwin Diaz. Berrios was dinged for his size, but he had stuff and control, and showed very well in the Excellence Games, a May showcase event that has historically included all of the best Puerto Rican high school prospects in each draft class. As with Fried, Berrios appears to be at his peak right now, with his most productive years still ahead of him.

10. Colorado: Joey Gallo, 3B

Player selected: David Dahl, OF
Gallo’s draft position: Supplemental 1st round, 39th pick (Texas)
Career WAR: 14.6

Gallo was a first-round talent, but he was also unlike just about any player we’d seen before – 80 raw power, athletic, with an 80 arm, but with an alarming tendency to swing and miss, even against high school pitching. I was at his high school the day he tied the Nevada state career home run record; he also struck out on three pitches, twice on pitches in the zone, in the same game. He hit a home run at Petco in the Perfect Game All-American Classic that at the time ranked as the ninth longest homer in the park’s history. He also would sit 95 mph off the mound. It was such a strange combination of tools, and in a kid who was athletic rather than just some big slugger who couldn’t move or play a position, that teams didn’t quite know what to do with him – and when he made it clear he wanted first-round money, he slipped to the Rangers, who had already taken Lewis Brinson (another huge-power guy who swung and missed a lot) with the 29th pick. Gallo has become the ultimate Three True Outcomes player, leading the AL in walks and strikeouts last year while finishing ninth in homers with 38, and he’s changed our perceptions of what an everyday player has to look like.

11. Oakland: Max Muncy, 1B

Player selected: Addison Russell, SS
Muncy’s draft position: 5th round, 169th pick (Oakland)
Career WAR: 14.8

I didn’t do this on purpose, assigning Muncy to the team that actually drafted him four rounds later, but it worked out rather nicely. Muncy was a hit-over-power college first baseman at Baylor. I still remember seeing him on Cape Cod and thinking, “nice player, but I wish he had some power.” It took a swing overhaul after he hit .195/.290/.321 in parts of two seasons with Oakland, at ages 24-25, before he got back to the majors two years later and hit 35 homers for the Dodgers with a.391 OBP. He’s also played a bunch of other positions, including second base, which I can honestly say I would have laughed at back in 2011 when I saw him in Wareham.

12. New York Mets: Chris Taylor, SS

Player selected: Gavin Cecchini, SS
Taylor’s draft position: 5th round, 161st pick (Seattle)
Career WAR: 15.0

The fifth round of the 2012 draft has produced a lot of big leaguers, including Taylor, Muncy, Ross Stripling, Mallex Smith, Tyler Duffey and Austin Nola, all of whom were four-year college products except for Smith (who went to a two-year school). Taylor, like Muncy, had to go to the Dodgers to develop a new swing and go from extra guy to bona fide All-Star, although he always had very strong walk rates with the Mariners, who traded him to L.A. for 2010 first-rounder Zach Lee.

13. Chicago White Sox: Mitch Haniger, OF

Player selected: Courtney Hawkins, OF
Haniger’s draft position: Supplemental 1st round, 38th pick (Milwaukee)
Career WAR: 14.2

Haniger became the second-highest player ever drafted out of Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo when the Brewers took him in the comp round in 2012, although he’ll drop to third when Brooks Lee is selected this July (John Orton was the 25th overall pick in 1987). The Brewers then traded the toolsy outfielder to the Diamondbacks at the 2014 trade deadline for Gerardo Parra; Arizona dealt him with Jean Segura in the deal that netted them Ketel Marte. Haniger has had two full, healthy seasons in the majors, but produced nearly 10 WAR in those two years alone. He’s been on the IL a lot, but good when he plays.

14. Cincinnati: Jesse Winker, OF

Player selected: Nick Travieso, RHP
Winker’s draft position: Supplemental 1st round, 49th pick (Cincinnati)
Career WAR: 4.8

The Reds did in fact pick 14th and took Nick Travieso, a high school righthander with great stuff but an iffy delivery for a starter. Travieso never reached the majors, but Winker turned into a strong regular whom the Reds just traded this winter for the perennial top prospect known as Salary Relief. He played at the same Orlando-area high school as fellow sandwich pick Walker Weickel, who never reached the majors and is now pitching in independent ball. Winker’s real skill was his plate discipline, which wasn’t as evident in high school but became so right away in the minors.

15. Cleveland: Carson Kelly, C

Player selected: Tyler Naquin, OF
Kelly’s draft position: 2nd round, 86th pick (St. Louis)
Career WAR: 2

Kelly was a third baseman/pitcher in high school, but the Cardinals took him with the intention of converting him to catcher, a long process that slowed his development as a hitter in the short term, but gave him a chance to be a strong regular in the long term. His first year above replacement level was 2019, at age 24, after the Cardinals included him in the trade for Goldschmidt. And despite his horrendous start to 2022, he should have another eight-to-10 years as an everyday catcher who maybe hangs on for a few more years as a quality backup.

16. Washington: Alex Wood, LHP

Player selected: Lucas Giolito, RHP
Wood’s draft position: 2nd round, 85th pick (Atlanta)
Career WAR: 13.1

Wood had already had Tommy John surgery in college, so between that and his high-effort delivery, he ended up in the second round, where the University of Georgia product landed with the local team. He’s been effective when healthy, missing most of 2016 (after a trade to the Dodgers) and 2019 (after the Dodgers traded him to the Reds) and 2020 (after the Dodgers picked him back up as a free agent), bouncing back last year with a 1.6 WAR performance and his first healthy-ish season since 2018.

Alex Wood (Kirby Lee / USA Today Sports)

17. Toronto: Josh Hader, LHP

Player selected: D.J. Davis, OF
Hader’s draft position: 19th round, 582nd pick (Baltimore)
Career WAR: 11.6

Hader pitched at Old Mill High School, where Lassie found him stuck down a well – wait, wrong story. That is, where the Orioles found him in their own backyard, saw his velocity jump up almost immediately after he signed and Rick Peterson helped him tighten up his delivery. He was always miscast as a starter with that delivery, but the Orioles gave up on him too quickly, trading him to the Astros for Bud Norris at the 2013 deadline. Norris would generate 0.5 WAR for Baltimore before they released him, while Houston would deal Hader to Milwaukee in the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers swap. Hader has held up well for a high-effort reliever, perhaps because the Brewers use him a little less frequently than has been typical for late-game arms.

18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Joey Wendle, 2B

Player selected: Corey Seager, 3B
Wendle’s draft position: 6th round, 203rd pick (Cleveland)
Career WAR: 11.9

Wendle signed for $10,000 out of Division II West Chester University right up route 202 from me in southeastern Pennsylvania (go Golden Rams!). He had a nondescript minor-league career, hitting .253/.311/.414 in one season in Double A, then .285/.323/.447 in two years in Triple A; yet here he is now, in his seventh year in the majors, with nearly 12 WAR already, mostly because he’s played above-average defense at second and third, and hit well enough for someone who plays in those spots. Sometimes the best thing is just showing up, I guess.

19. St. Louis: Mike Zunino, C

Player selected: Michael Wacha, RHP
Zunino’s draft position: 1st round, 3rd pick (Seattle)
Career WAR: 10.4

Zunino, the first college player taken in 2012, has a career .201/.271/.412 line in the majors, yet he’s got over 10 career WAR because he can catch (well, in fact) and has power (145 homers, 33 of them in 2021). I suppose that says more about the state of catching today than anything else.

20. San Francisco: Lance McCullers, Jr., RHP

Player selected: Chris Stratton, RHP
McCullers’ draft position: Supplemental 1st round, 41st pick (Houston)
Career WAR: 9.7

McCullers was one of the two players Houston took with the savings it got on Correa, with the other, Rio Ruiz, currently at 0.3 WAR across parts of six years in the majors. McCullers has been effective when healthy, including a peak of 3.4 WAR in 2021, the first time he threw more than 130 innings in a big-league season, although he led the league in walks. He’s just had real trouble staying healthy as a starter. He’s on the 60-day IL right now and missed all of 2019 and half of 2016, all with arm injuries. He’ll still have a job as long as he can spin that curveball, though.

21. Atlanta: Zach Eflin, RHP

Player selected: Lucas Sims, RHP
Eflin’s draft position: Supplemental 1st round, 33rd pick (San Diego)
Career WAR: 6.4

The Padres went heavy on high school pitching in 2012, taking Fried, Eflin, Weickel and Walker Lockett (fourth round), although none of them did anything in San Diego uniforms. Eflin went to the Phillies by way of the Dodgers in a pair of trades in December 2014, with the Padres getting Matt Kemp and the Dodgers getting Jimmy Rollins in those deals. The Phillies haven’t done Eflin a ton of favors, changing his pitch mix too often, but he’s been a solid fourth starter for them when healthy and looks like he can be the back-end guy for a few years with his current repertoire and plus control.

22. Toronto: Edwin Díaz, RHP

Player selected: Marcus Stroman, RHP
Díaz’s draft position: 3rd round, 98th pick (Seattle)
Career WAR: 7.8

Díaz was the fourth Puerto Rican player taken in the 2012 draft, after Correa, Berrios and Jesmuel Valentin (taken by the Dodgers in the sandwich round). While he’s not catching the first two, he really took off after the Mariners moved him to the bullpen in Double A. Outside of that outlier first year in New York, when he lost his slider (which I know some scouts think was a matter of the different baseball, not anything about Díaz specifically) and gave up 15 homers in 58 innings, he’s thrown nearly 300 innings in the majors with a 2.69 ERA and a 39 percent strikeout rate.

23. St. Louis: Matt Duffy, 3B

Player selected: James Ramsey, OF
Duffy’s draft position: 18th round, 568th pick (San Francisco)
Career WAR: 9.4

Area scout Brad Cameron pushed hard for Duffy even though the infielder did not homer for Long Beach State. He didn’t homer as a junior … or as a sophomore … or as a freshman. Long Beach State’s home park was an incredibly tough place to homer — his teammate Jeff McNeil didn’t hit a single home run in three years there either – but Duffy didn’t hit for much average, either, making this a real scouting success story. Duffy homered once that first summer in pro ball, nine more times the next year, and reached the majors the summer after that. He went to the Rays in the Evan Longoria trade, missed all of 2017 due to a left heel injury, and didn’t get all the way back to his previous form until last year with the Cubs.

24. Boston: Michael Wacha, RHP

Player selected: Deven Marrero, SS
Wacha’s draft position: 1st round, 19th pick (St. Louis)
Career WAR: 8.8

Wacha had an average fastball and 70 changeup at Texas A&M but never had much of a breaking ball, so he ended up going 19th rather than going in the top 10 like a college pitcher with his track record should have gone. Wacha was in the majors less than a year after he was drafted and by the end of 2015 had racked up 6.3 WAR. He’s not that pitcher any more, though, and hasn’t been since a 2016 IL stint. His command has gradually declined, and he’s now more sinker/changeup/curveball than four-seam/changeup. His first month with the Red Sox this year produced career-worst strikeout and walk rates in a tiny sample. I do think he’ll hang around for a while as a fifth starter who can eat some innings on one-year deals.

Michael Wacha (Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images)

25. Tampa Bay: Andrew Heaney, LHP

Player selected: Richie Shaffer, 3B
Heaney’s draft position: 1st round, 9th pick (Miami)
Career WAR: 6.4

Heaney signed below slot, with the rumor circulating that Marlins ownership at the time refused to pay him more and told him to take their offer or go back to school. Fortunately for Heaney, the team traded him after 2014 to the Dodgers in a seven-player deal, with the Dodgers immediately flipping him to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. After missing most of 2016-17 around Tommy John surgery, Heaney gave the Angels about 5 wins worth of performance before a midyear trade to the Yankees last year that’s best not discussed. He was off to a great start for the Dodgers this year before his shoulder barked, putting him on the IL. For now, I’m assuming he comes back healthy and has a few more years ahead of him as a back-end starter.

26. Arizona: Jacob Stallings, C

Player selected: Stryker Trahan, C
Stallings’ draft position: 7th round, 226th pick (Pittsburgh)
Career WAR: 5.9

Signed for just $10,000 by then-area scout Sean Heffernan, Stallings did nothing to mark himself as a prospect for his first few years in pro ball, and hit .214/.252/.350 in Triple A at age 26, which looked more like an end than a beginning. He debuted that year with the Pirates, became a semi-regular three years later in 2019, and put up a 3 WAR season for Pittsburgh in 2021, leading them to trade him to Miami for three prospects. He’s a strong defender behind the plate who makes enough contact to be valuable as an everyday guy – a skill set that should let him play a long time, making up for his late start.

27. Milwaukee: Taylor Rogers, P

Player selected: Clint Coulter, C
Rogers’ draft position: 11th round, 340th pick (Minnesota)
Career WAR: 7.6

Rogers was the Twins’ 11th-rounder out of the University of Kentucky, where he was an unremarkable starter who didn’t miss many bats and gave up a ton of hits. The Twins used him almost exclusively as a starter in the minors, but his strikeout rate of 18.5 percent was on the low end for him to stay in that role, and he has never started a single game in the majors, with 338 relief appearances to date.

28. Milwaukee: Brett Phillips, OF (and very occasional P)

Player selected: Victor Roache, OF
Phillips’ draft position: 6th round, 189th pick (Houston)
Career WAR: 6.2

Phillips was actually on my Big Board in 2012, right at No. 100, but he lasted until the sixth round. The Astros traded him to Milwaukee with Hader in the Fiers/Gomez deal, then went to Kansas City for Mike Moustakas, and then to Tampa Bay for Lucius Fox. He has power, speed and a cannon for an arm, and he plays like his hair’s on fire — all of which will give him continued opportunities to be the last position player on someone’s roster, but he’s always swung and missed too much to be more than that. It’s still a great career for a sixth-rounder.

29. Texas: Tom Murphy, C

Player selected: Lewis Brinson, OF
Murphy’s draft position: 3rd round, 105th pick (Colorado)
Career WAR: 4

Murphy is a perfect backup catcher, solid enough defensively and with some power so that he’s not just a cipher in the lineup when he plays. The Rockies never seemed to want to give him a full trial while he was there, and they eventually lost him on waivers to the Giants after giving him just 210 plate appearances over four seasons. The Giants flipped him to the Mariners a few days later, and he’s hit 30 homers for the Mariners in 186 games. I could see him playing for a while and putting up a bunch of 0.5-1.0 WAR seasons as a part-timer.

30. New York Yankees: Jake Lamb, 3B

Player selected: Ty Hensley, RHP
Lamb’s draft position: 6th round, 213th pick (Arizona)
Career WAR: 7.4

Lamb had two great seasons for the D-Backs before he hurt his shoulder in 2018, undergoing season-ending surgery that marked the end of his productive days, at least for now. He has hit .193/.309/.358 since going under the knife, and even before that he was just a good platoon player. He’s currently hitting well in Triple A for the Dodgers, enough that probably four or five teams could use him right now as part of a third-base platoon.

(Top photo of Correa: Paige Calamari / MLB via Getty Images)