Every year that I produce a Top 100 ranking, I go through an iterative process where I start with more than 100 players, circulate the first cut to industry sources, move some guys around, take some names off the list and add other ones, circulate again, and so on. That process always means there are players who just missed the list – the decision to stop at 100 is rather arbitrary, just a function of us having 10 fingers and base-10 number system – and this year I’ve written up a few more. All of these players are very good prospects who shouldn’t be overlooked just because they missed the main list.
Gabriel Arias, SS, Cleveland
Arias is a plus defender at short, with a plus arm, and runs really well, but he still has to prove that he can hit to project as any sort of regular, even with the high bar provided by his defense. His plate discipline isn’t very good, and he’s been through multiple iterations of his swing already, even though he won’t turn 21 until late February. His age works in his favor in that it gives him more time to figure various things out, but scouts aren’t optimistic that his current swing and approach will work.
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Corbin Martin, RHP, Arizona
Martin might have made the top 100 had he finished 2020 healthy, but an oblique strain ended his season a little early and cost him some innings that might have helped him handle more work in 2021. He was still working his way back from mid-2019 Tommy John surgery that came after he made five starts for the Astros, but before the surgery was sitting 95 with a plus slider and at least average curveball. He has to work more on developing his changeup and on fastball command, and I’d like to see where his stuff sits post-surgery when he’s working 5-6 innings at a clip.
Mick Abel, RHP, Philadelphia
The best high school pitcher in the 2020 draft class, Abel never got on a mound last spring before the pandemic arrived, but he did throw extremely well in fall instructs for the Phillies, including a well-attended matchup against the first high school pitcher taken in the 2019 draft, Quinn Priester. Abel has been up to 98 with a plus slider with good tilt, and is working on developing his curve and changeup. He’s also got a good pitcher’s build at 6-5, 190 pounds. We’ll see how he looks after some time in pro ball, facing real hitters, since the history of high school pitchers taken high in the draft – even ones who look as good as Abel – is not very promising.
Luis Medina, RHP, NY Yankees
Medina is a great athlete with an incredible arm and a delivery he should be able to repeat, but his problem has always been throwing strikes. I’ve seen him hit 99 in the same start where he couldn’t get out of the second inning because he was so wild, and he has two plus or better secondary pitches too. In 2018, he walked 46 batters and threw 12 wild pitches in 36 innings for short-season Pulaski. In 2019, he improved but still walked 70 guys with 27 wild pitches in 103.2 innings, hitting nine batters for good measure, although he looked like he might have turned a corner late in the season, walking only six guys in his last four starts, covering 22.2 innings, with only two wild pitches. And now we have a little more cause for optimism, as Medina was the pitcher of the year in the Puerto Rican Winter League after he made four starts for Mayaguez, throwing 16.2 innings, walking six batters and striking out 32, more than half of the batters he faced. Four starts here, four starts there, none of this is a big sample, but it’s better than he’s pitched anywhere else in pro ball, and if he can build on this and put together a full season, or even most of one, with this level of control, he’s a top 50 prospect at worst.
Shea Langeliers, C, Atlanta
Langeliers is a premium defensive catcher with some pop who never hit for much average while at Baylor or on the Cape, and then hit .255/.310/.343 after an aggressive post-draft assignment to full-season Rome. He looked good early in spring training before the shutdown and continued to impress with the bat at Atlanta’s alternate site, but we have to see this come through in games against real pitching before we can buy into it. He still has a high floor as a major-league backup and doesn’t have to hit that much to be a regular given his defense and 15-20 homer power.
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Hudson Head, OF, Pittsburgh
I thought Head would end up making my top 100 before I started assembling the list, but he ended up just on the outside of it. Head has elite bat speed and has shown huge power in BP, although word from instructs was that his swing had started to go backwards, which would put a big dent in his projection. He’s still a center fielder, although he had hamstring trouble last year and didn’t always show the range he can have at the position. If his swing is back to where it was before the shutdown, he’s a good candidate to make the jump in 2021.
Jose Israel Garcia, SS, Cincinnati
Garcia had been a top 100 prospect off a solid season in High A, but was very, very clearly not ready for the majors last year, striking out in 38 percent of his 68 PA in the big leagues – he had twice as many strikeouts as hits – with just one walk. I don’t know how a debut that bad might affect Garcia in the long term, but it did underscore that his hit tool is still a ways off. He’s a plus defender at short with good actions and a strong arm, and he projects to come into some power as he fills out, so as with Gabriel Arias, there’s the potential there for a good regular or more if he shows he can make enough quality contact.
Miguel Amaya, C, Chicago Cubs
Amaya has everyday upside, with plus power and a plus arm behind the plate, along with adequate receiving skills right now; he couldn’t crack the top 100 last year because of the poor choices he can make at the plate, often giving away at-bats and making weak contact on pitches he should take. Maybe that’s improved since last we saw him in High A Myrtle Beach, but – stop me if you’ve heard this one before – he needs to prove it against real competition.
Josh Jung, 3B, Texas
Jung is a perfect example of a prospect I do like despite his omission from the top 100. There are more than 100 prospects in the minors right now, and a player missing the main list could still be a good prospect and someone I’d want in my system if I were a GM or President of Baseball Operations or Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas or whatever the decision-makers are calling themselves these days. The Rangers have tried Jung at second base at their alternate site, and even had him fill in at short, but ultimately Jung’s value is going to come down to how much power he has, since it seems very likely he’s going to hit for average, and, once again, we need to see him show some thump in games since he didn’t in a brief run after signing in 2019.
Jordan Groshans, 3B, Toronto
Last year I wrote this about Groshans: “A full, healthy year in 2020 will help establish just how advanced his bat is and whether he has the power to be a star even in a corner.” Ah, well, it was a good thought, but because of the pandemic Groshans hasn’t taken an at-bat in an actual game since May 2019. Groshans did spend the summer at the Jays’ alternate site, facing a lot of pitchers who had appeared in the big leagues or were close to doing so, which is better than no experience but doesn’t give us much new information, such as whether he’s still rotating his hips early and cutting off some of his potential power. He does have a great swing path and has shown an ability to make some adjustments in the limited experience he has in pro ball. I’d just like to see him produce over a longer period against better pitching now.
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Brett Baty, 1B/3B, NY Mets
Baty was a 19-year-old high school senior when the Mets took him in the first round in 2019, a big kid with an advanced bat who’d probably end up moving from third base to first base. The case for a 19-year-old high school position player revolves around his bat being so advanced that he could get to Double A by his age-21 season, which was the Mets’ belief (and mine, for that matter) on Baty. Sometimes that belief is wrong; I thought Blake Rutherford, the Yankees’ first-round pick in 2016, was that kind of guy, and he hasn’t produced at all, making a lot of weak contact in A ball and all but falling off prospect lists. Baty just lost his age 20 season to the pandemic, so now he’s 21 and has yet to take an at-bat in full-season ball, without the experience that 21-year-old college products have of playing in the SEC or ACC against better pitching. Baty might still be a star, but the road for him to get there is tougher now because of the lost year.
Cade Cavalli, RHP, Washington
The Nationals were the only team without a player on the top 100, and Cavalli, their first-round pick in 2020, was the closest. He’s very athletic, with four pitches and good control, including a power curveball and a potential wipeout slider, but he didn’t miss anywhere near as many bats as he should have in college, especially on his fastball, and he’s going to have to make some sort of adjustment – pitching away from it, using more two-seamers, locating it more to the corners – to get to be a mid-rotation starter.
(Photo of Abel: Mike Carlson / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
