Pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery don’t often end up getting traded for substantial returns, especially when it’s their second such operation. It’s more common to see those guys non-tendered or just become free agents and then sign two-year deals, or one-year deals with option years, as they rehab. The Yankees’ trade for Jameson Taillon breaks with that precedent, as they sent the Pirates four actual prospects — albeit none in their top five — in exchange for Taillon, even though he’s still returning from mid-2019 Tommy John surgery, and has just one full, healthy season as a major-league starter on his resume.
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Taillon had a breakout year in 2018, staying healthy for the full season and posting his best rate stats across the board, generating a career-best 3.4 rWAR/3.9 fWAR. But he hurt his elbow seven starts into 2019 and had to undergo his second Tommy John surgery, from which he was still rehabbing last summer. Taillon was mostly fastball/breaking ball, throwing a four-seamer and sinker, and a curveball and slider, with the four-seamer and curveball probably his best two pitches. His changeup is a distant fifth in his repertoire and, as a result of that and the way he finished his delivery, he has had trouble with left-handed batters.
During the rehab, however, Taillon has shortened his arm action, which he hopes will make him more effective and keep him healthy. Lucas Giolito did the same thing and turned into a Cy Young Award contender for the White Sox, developing better command, more deception and a much-improved changeup. The two pitchers are similar in size, and both were big power guys in high school, throwing very hard with out-pitch breaking balls (Giolito’s was a curveball, Taillon’s a slider). If Taillon models his changes after those Giolito made and stays healthy, the Yankees would have a good No. 2 starter to pitch behind Gerrit Cole.
The Pirates did quite well here, especially with Taillon’s injury history likely depressing his value. Right-hander Roansy Contreras doesn’t have the power arm of some of the Yankees’ more famous prospects, but he’s a probable starter with good control for his age and a chance to get to three average or better pitches. He’ll work at 92-95 mph, with the changeup his best pitch, showing hard tailing movement to his arm side, making it an effective pitch against left- and right-handed batters. He does need a better breaking ball; his curveball in 2019 was fringy, mid-70s with some two-plane break but slow rotation and little power to it. He has a fast enough arm to at least throw a harder curveball or try a slider, and with his control — he has a 7.1 percent career walk rate and came in at 6.7 percent in 2019 in low A — he has at least back-end starter upside, with more if the breaking ball comes.
Miguel Yajure made an unexpected debut in 2020 as the Yankees needed an extra arm in the bullpen, but he probably will return to the minors for 2021 and resume working as a starter. He’s 90-95 mph on his four-seamer and likes to throw the pitch at the top of the strike zone, working with three secondary pitches in a curveball, changeup and new cutter that he pounds in to left-handed batters. He spins the ball well, and the curve or cutter will probably end up an above-average to plus pitch for him. He’s on the small side for a right-hander, but there’s no physical or mechanical reason he can’t succeed as a starter. With his stuff and his feel to pitch, he could end up a league-average rotation member.
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Signed for $350,000 in 2018, Maikol Escotto tied for fifth in the Dominican Summer League in home runs in 2019, with eight homers and a .315/.429/.552 line at age 17. He’s got a pretty right-handed swing with good loft in his finish to generate that power, although he can overstride and get on his front leg too soon, which might be why he struck out 26 percent of the time that summer. He has played second, short and third, spending most of that summer at second base. He’s a lottery ticket but the sort the Pirates should be collecting. A second baseman with some patience and this sort of present power is a valuable prospect, even if he doesn’t have much projection left in his body.
Canaan Smith had a quietly solid year in low A at age 20 in 2019, cutting down on his swing and bringing his strikeout rate down from 30 percent in the summer of 2018 to 20.5 percent, even with the jump to full-season ball. He’s a corner outfielder with doubles power, and he has become much more selective at the plate since the Yankees took him in the fourth round in 2017. If he develops more home run power, he’d have a chance to be a regular, but between his trouble with left-handed pitching and his somewhat mature body, he’s more likely to be a platoon guy or fourth outfielder.
(Photo: Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images))
