The Mets’ system is as top-heavy as any organization, with five top 100 prospects, one who isn’t that far off as long as he’s healthy and a quick dropoff after the top 10. They do still have some areas of strength from which to trade, and they should see some more pitching emerge in the system over the next two years to eventually replace the veterans in Queens.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Francisco Alvarez, C (Top 100 Ranking: No. 8)
Age: 20 | 5-10 | 233 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Alvarez was so good in Low-A St. Lucie to start the year that the Mets bumped him up to High A after just 15 games, even though he was just 19. He then hit .247/.351/.538 as the youngest regular anywhere in High A last year, making him one of the most productive hitters at that level, with a strikeout rate right around the median. Alvarez’s swing is easy and quick — his hand acceleration is great, and he’s very balanced from when he starts moving his hands through contact. And he’s a catcher with a plus arm and at least adequate/fringy receiving already, but enough agility to improve back there with more reps. He has 20-plus homer power already, with 30-plus in his near-term outlook, and he’s going to hit for higher averages once he’s no longer the youngest player at his level. The only knock on Alvarez’s upside is that he has a more mature body than some of the other catching prospects of his age around the game, so he may not have much more power coming to him, but the response is that he has plus game power already, and if this is all there ever is, so what? He could be as mobile as a statue and still be an above-average regular for a catcher with — dare I say it — a Mike Piazza-like upside if his bat keeps improving.
2. Ronny Mauricio, SS (Top 100 Ranking: No. 40)
Age: 21 | 6-3 | 166 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Mauricio signed with the Mets for $2.1 million back in 2017, and had a fairly quiet full-season debut in Low A in 2019, hitting .268/.307/.357 with just four home runs. He came back from the pandemic stronger, and it showed in his production, as he hit 20 homers in 453 plate appearances last year, mostly in High A. And I think that’s just the beginning for his power potential. A true switch-hitter, Mauricio has loose, quick wrists, and generates surprising power from his wiry frame because of his bat speed and the strength he already has in his forearms. I don’t think he’s going to stay at shortstop; for one thing, his defense there is too erratic, and for another, he’s got a lot of room to add muscle and has already grown quite a bit in height and weight since he signed. He reminds me a lot of a young Alfonso Soriano, who never got that big but hit 30-plus homers seven times in the majors and 412 in his career, and who did move off shortstop even when he was still an above-average runner. The Mets would probably be thrilled with that outcome.
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3. Brett Baty, 3B (Top 100 Ranking: No. 41)
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 12 in 2019
Baty was a controversial first-round pick from a data perspective because he was 19 1/2 on draft day, exceptionally old for a high-school hitter. He could flat-out hit, though, and had huge power from his 6-3 frame, so the Mets took him with the 12th pick. Baty mashed last year in High A at 21, and continued to hit in Double A and the Arizona Fall League (where everyone hit, though — you actually hit .285 there last year), with less power than expected but strong walk and contact rates. He hit the ball on the ground too often last year, but that’s one of the easiest flaws for player development staffs to fix. And Baty hits the ball hard enough that once the Mets get him lifting the ball a little more often, he’s going to end up with 25-plus homers; Vlad Guerrero Jr. used to hit the ball on the ground too often, too. Baty has worked hard to maintain his conditioning, slimming down a little since high school, when it looked like he’d end up too big to play anywhere but first. At this point, it’s no worse than even money that he’ll stay at third for the near future, unless he just gets pushed off by a plus defender down the line. He has the core ingredients for an impact bat who hits for average, gets on base, and has doubles and home run power, and any concerns about his age are over.
4. Mark Vientos, 3B (Top 100 Ranking: No. 71)
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 59 in 2017
Vientos returns to the top 100 after a two-year absence after a breakout year in Double A, hitting .281/.346/.580 for Binghamton before hitting three homers in 11 games to finish the year in Triple A. He did strike out more than you’d like, 29 percent of the time, but his pitch recognition and strike zone awareness are better than his strikeout and walk rates imply, as the Mets have worked on getting him to be more selective in the zone and focus on pitches where he can do the most damage. His exit velocities have consistently been among the best in the Mets’ system, and he projects to be a 30-35 homer guy in the next few years. Even though he’s transformed his body since he was an amateur, he may not stay at third base, and first base would put a big dent in his prospect value, so the Mets have started trying him a little bit in left field; the early returns weren’t great, but if he can be a 45 defender there, his bat will carry him. If he manages to hold on at third, he could be a four-win player.
5. Alex Ramirez, OF (Top 100 Ranking: No. 100)
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
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Ramirez signed for $2.05 million in July of 2019, and made his pro debut in 2021 as one of only two 18-year-olds in the Low-A Southeast League. He was slightly overmatched at the plate, but showed incredible defensive skills in centerfield with great reads and plus speed, and flashed what should be grade 60 or even 70 power when he fills out. He’s 6-3 and still close to the 168 pounds he was when he first signed, although he’s likely to put on 25-30 pounds of muscle as he fills out. It’ll come down to control of the strike zone, as with so many young hitters; if he shows he can do it enough to get to the power, he’ll be a plus-plus defender in centerfield who hits 25-30 homers a year.
6. Matt Allan, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-3 | 225 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 89 in 2019
Allan was a top-100 prospect before he blew out his elbow, featuring a 55 fastball and 60 curveball that was a clear-out pitch for him. He should be back by April, with reports that he’s gotten stronger in the interim. Aside from health, his main areas for development were fastball command and improving his changeup, which he didn’t have to use often in high school since he could flip the curveball with impunity. If he comes back with more velocity from other strength training, which Walker Buehler did during his Tommy John rehab, Allan could get away without much growth in fastball command. There’s No. 2 starter upside here but a lot of variance between the injury, mediocre fastball life and just general lack of experience.
7. J.T. Ginn, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 52 in 2020
Ginn was a first-rounder out of high school but chose to go to Mississippi State, where he worked with a 70 fastball and 70 slider at times, along with a much-improved changeup, until he blew out his elbow at the start of his sophomore (draft-eligible) year. The Mets signed him to an over-slot deal in the second round, betting on a full recovery, but Ginn is a different pitcher now – he’s a turbo sinker guy, 90-94 mph with huge groundball rates, with a better changeup but not the same out pitch slider. He does throw a lot more strikes now and profiles as a quality mid-rotation guy who can keep the ball on the ground and get quick outs.
8. Khalil Lee, OF
Age: 24 | 5-10 | 170 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 103 in 2016
Lee was 13 for 18 in his major-league debut … wait, I’m getting an update here (presses finger to imaginary earbud) … oh, 13 strikeouts in 18 at-bats with one hit and no walks. That seems bad. Fortunately, that’s not who Lee is; he’s a power/speed guy who is very comfortable running deep counts, possibly to his own detriment. He takes too many fastballs for strikes, especially early in counts, and doesn’t have enough of a two-strike/contact approach to recover. He does have 20 homer-20 speed potential, and he can play centerfield, although the Mets had him more in right last year in Triple A. He’s a regular for somebody, even if there’s no room in Queens for him.
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9. Carlos Cortes, OF
Age: 25 | 5-7 | 197 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Switch
Drafted: No. 83 in 2018
It’s a little odd to say, but Cortes actually needed to strike out more – his game was built around soft contact and avoiding the whiff, but for a left fielder, that’s not going to get it done. He’s always had a compact swing and good strike zone awareness, but his contact quality wasn’t there, to say nothing of his lack of power. Last year he hit 14 homers in 79 games in Double A, nearly doubling his pro career total (he hit 15 in his first 174 games), struck out at a higher rate, but didn’t lose anything off his batting average or on-base percentage. I don’t think he can be more than an everyday guy without some sudden boost to his batting average, which would mean hitting the ball harder more consistently, but he could be a regular on a second-division team with this skill set.
10. Mike Vasil, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-5 | 225 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 232 in 2021
Vasil could have been a top-15 pick in 2018 and taken home $3 million or more, but he listened to the advice of those in Charlottesville and took his name out of the draft completely. That, and I cannot emphasize this enough, is a terrible idea. There is no downside to being drafted and offered a bunch of money. You can always say no. You can still go to college. If one third party tells you not to allow another third party to offer you the biggest financial windfall of your life, well, maybe don’t trust that first third party.
Vasil went to Virginia, where the coaches changed his delivery enough that his stuff backed up and he got smacked around, giving up 190 hits in 161.1 innings in college with a 4.72 ERA and less than a strikeout an inning. The Mets took him in the eighth round, gave him $181,200, and fixed his delivery; so in pro ball he was 95-96 mph with a power curveball and average changeup, still throwing a ton of strikes. He’s 6-5 and athletic enough that he should get to 55 command. If this stuff sustains over longer periods, the Mets found a steal.
11. Nick Plummer, OF
Age: 25 | 5-10 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 23 in 2015
I don’t end up putting many minor-league free agents on team top 20s, but Plummer, who had a breakout season for St. Louis in 2021 after a career that made it seem he was an irredeemable bust, signed a major-league contract with the Mets this winter. (He became a free agent because he had six-plus years of service, but the Cardinals didn’t add him to their 40-man roster. His deal with the Mets puts him on their 40-man.) Plummer made some mechanical changes, including reducing his big leg kick, and approach changes, working on earlier pitch recognition to try to do more damage and miss less often on pitches in the zone. It worked: He hit .283/.404/.489 in Double A, then .267/.455/.440 in a month in Triple A. He’s a corner outfielder and he’s probably not going to see 20 homers, so the upside here is a high on-base percentage, 30-doubles kind of regular. But I think the Mets were right to give him the roster spot.
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12. Dominic Hamel, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 206 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 81 in 2021
The Mets’ third-round pick in 2021 out of Dallas Baptist, Hamel has exceptional ability to spin the baseball, with big spin rates on his slider, curveball and fastball. His velocity is average but the pitch should play up thanks to its rotation, and the slider and curve are both solid-average major-league pitches right now. His command lags a little behind and he might not have a true out pitch, but the four-pitch mix and high spin rates give him a chance to be a fourth starter.
13. Calvin Ziegler, RHP
Age: 19 | 6-0 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 46 in 2021
Ziegler was born in Canada but moved to Florida after he went undrafted back home in the shortened 2020 draft, moving up to the second round in 2021 as a result. He was 93-97 mph last spring with an out pitch curveball and a delivery that he seemed to be able to repeat well — a good harbinger for future command. He has to develop a changeup and see how that command plays out against pro hitters when he debuts this year, but you can see the raw ingredients for a mid-rotation arm that made him a second-rounder.
14. Eric Orze, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-4 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 150 in 2020
The Mets took Orze in the fifth round in 2020 and signed the University of New Orleans senior to an under-slot $20,000 bonus. He debuted in pro ball in 2021 and finished the year in Triple A, striking out a third of batters he faced across three levels, thanks to an unhittable splitter that helps him get left- and right-handed batters out. He’s a straight reliever but should be able to help the club this year, with the potential to move into high-leverage roles as long as he keeps throwing enough strikes.
15. Jose Butto, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 202 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
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Butto has a great combination of a plus changeup and tremendous deception in his delivery, so hitters don’t see his 93-95 mph fastball well to begin with, and the spin rate on it is above-average as well. He doesn’t have an average breaking ball, however, and that may be enough to keep him from starting, as the changeup isn’t quite good enough to limit same-side batters – they don’t see him well overall, but he gives up too much hard contact to them. He could move to the pen and be 96-plus mph with that same wipeout changeup and be extremely effective, though.
16. Christian Scott, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 142 in 2021
Scott worked as a reliever at the University of Florida, walking just nine batters in 54 innings last spring, but the Mets took him with the hope that they can convert him to the rotation. He has plus control, obviously, but also an out pitch in a plus slider and some tailing life to his fastball. He has a changeup but barely used it in college. His delivery seems fine for a potential starter, although we have to see how he maintains his delivery and his stuff as they stretch him out.
17. Robert Dominguez, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-5 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Dominguez is a big 6-5 right-hander who sits 97 mph and touches 99 mph with a so-so breaking ball that gets slurvy but could end up a 50-55 for him. His changeup is well below-average, though, and he might end up a power reliever between that and his fastball command, which isn’t where you’d like it to be for a 20-year-old.
18. Jaylen Palmer, OF
Age: 21 | 6-4 | 208 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 650 in 2018
Palmer has plus power and makes very hard contact when he does make contact, along with plus speed and a chance to stay in centerfield. He fared well in Low A, especially for someone who played high school baseball in New York City and hadn’t been out of short-season before 2021, but was overmatched after a surprising promotion to High A, mostly because of poor pitch recognition. He’s going to get stronger and end up with 30-homer power, but it’s a real question whether he can make enough adjustments at the plate to get to it.
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19. Junior Santos, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-8 | 244 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Santos is 6-8 and sits 93-95 mph, but needs a better breaking ball and just a more consistent delivery, as right now he’s just a big guy who throws hard, and maybe someday he’ll throw harder. He doesn’t have a very fast arm or a consistent release point, so while he’s not wild, he has 35 command and is going to have a hard time manipulating the ball to change movement or spin. He just turned 20 and actually still looks like he’ll add velocity with the size you dream of in a potential starter, but so far it’s untapped.
20. JT Schwartz, 1B
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 111 in 2021
Schwartz has great plate discipline and can barrel up the ball consistently, but might not have the power to profile as a regular at first. If he played another position, he would be a potential regular, even at 10-12 homers a year, but he needs to get a good bit stronger and start mashing to play first base every day – not that there’s any room for him there in Queens.
Others of note
Carson Seymour can run it up to 100 mph with a plus slider and good secondary characteristics, with a tough look from a 6-6 frame, but he has 35 command and couldn’t get hitters out consistently in the Big 12. The Mets took a flyer on him in the sixth round; maybe he could just move to relief and try to blow guys up with pure stuff … Hayden Senger and Nick Meyer are both potential big-league backup catchers. Meyer is the better defender and doesn’t strike out much, but he has 30 power, while Senger hits the ball harder and has less defensive prowess and inferior plate discipline … Shervyen Newton is an elite defender with power, but the Dutch shortstop has shown no adjustments at all in his pitch selection or recognition, striking out 41 percent of the time in 30 games in Low A – the same level where he played in 2019.
2022 impact
Quite possibly nobody. The Mets are close to set at every position and in their rotation. Their only prospects who could probably step into a major-league role right now are Lee and Plummer, so if any of the Mets’ outfielders gets hurt, you could see one of them.
The fallen
The Mets gave Gregory Guerrero, Vlad Jr.’s cousin, $1.5 million back in 2015. Seven years later, he has played 190 games in total, never above short-season, due in no small part to multiple shoulder injuries. He hit just .220/.284/.370 as a 22-year-old in the Florida Complex League last year.
Sleeper
I can’t believe I’m saying this after I saw him get hit around in college just 10 months ago, but Vasil might be about to become the pitcher we all thought he was going to be four years ago. And that would be fantastic.
(Photo of Francisco Alvarez: Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)
