Atlanta’s system is badly depleted by Trader Alex’s deals, including the three big ones in the last 10 months that shipped out 10 guys to bring in Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, and Joe Jiménez. I doubt anyone’s complaining when the big-league club gets markedly better like this, but that is the primary reason why Atlanta’s top 20 looks the way it does, compounded by their absence from the international free-agent market for almost three cycles.
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The ranking
1. Jared Shuster, LHP
Age (on July 1): 24 | 6-3 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 25 in 2020
Atlanta’s first-round pick in the 2020 draft out of Wake Forest, Shuster projects as a good fourth starter at his peak thanks to a plus changeup and plus control. He’ll sit 90-93 mph and works well off the two pitches, but his slider is fringy and short, so he had a large reverse platoon split in 2022, giving up 10 of his 18 homers allowed to lefties even though he faced them for just 31 percent of his total plate appearances.
2. JR (Ian) Ritchie, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 35 in 2022
Atlanta’s second pick in the 2022 draft was their best, as Ritchie, a UCLA commit, was one of the best high school pitching prospects in the entire class. He’s very projectable and athletic, with a great delivery and easy arm swing. All three of his pitches could end up plus, led by a fastball that was 93-96 mph in short outings after he signed, with his hard low-80s slurve his best secondary pitch. He’ll need to use his changeup more to develop it and, of course, to stay healthy.
3. Cole Phillips, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-3 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 57 in 2022
Phillips hit 99 mph in a start last spring but blew out his elbow shortly thereafter, so he had already undergone Tommy John surgery before the draft, allowing Atlanta to take him in the second round. His curveball projects to plus and he has a good pitcher’s build, while his command and control lagged behind his stuff and we’ll have to see him develop a third pitch once he’s healthy.
4. Owen Murphy, RHP
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 20 in 2022
Atlanta reached for Murphy in the first round, although doing so allowed them to go under slot with him and over slot with three later picks (Ritchie, Phillips and Adam Maier). The Illinois high school righthander has good ride on a 90-92 mph fastball, with two breaking balls that can blend together, and some delivery questions, like spinning off his front heel, that give him more bullpen risk than Ritchie has.
5. Braden Shewmake, SS
Age: 25 | 6-4 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 21 in 2019
Shewmake is an above-average defender at short who has excellent hand-eye with great contact rates, but so far hasn’t had anywhere near enough impact on balls in play to project as a regular, even with the defensive value. He hits the ball in the air enough to be at least a high-doubles guy if he gets stronger, but right now he’s more of a good utility infielder, although he’s probably a better defender than Vaughn Grissom.
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6. Cal Conley, SS
Age: 23 | 5-10 | 185 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 126 in 2021
Atlanta’s fourth-round pick in 2021, Conley got off to a lousy start in Low A as a 21-year-old and looked like a bust as late as June 1, but kept improving as the season went on, earning a promotion to High A and then continuing his stronger performances in the Arizona Fall League. He’s a fringe-average defender at short but would probably be a 55 or better at second, and is a smart base stealer with enough pop that he projects as a good utility infielder even if there’s no further upside with the bat.
7. AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-3 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 217 in 2021
Smith-Shawver was a big high school quarterback with arm strength when Atlanta took him in the seventh round, and the fastball can be electric to go with a solid-average or better changeup. His curveball is a clear third pitch and he walked 13 percent of batters he faced this year as a 19-year-old in Low A. He was always going to be a long-term development guy given his inexperience, though, and probably would have gone to short-season this year if those leagues still existed.
8. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 59 in 2021
Schwellenbach was a shortstop/reliever at the University of Nebraska when Atlanta took him in the second round in 2021, where he slid because he had torn his UCL and needed Tommy John surgery. He’s back to throwing bullpens now but has yet to pitch in a game; he should be ready to go for spring training, which will be 19 months after the surgery. Pre-injury he’d be up to 97 mph in relief with a plus slider and some feel for a changeup, with a good delivery that gave him a chance to start once he gave up playing the field.
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9. Victor Vodnik, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 412 in 2018
Vodnik only threw 34 innings in 2022 during a second year of interruptions due to injury, but he’s in the bullpen now, where he sat 95-97 mph with a plus changeup. He has to stay healthy for a full season at some point and improve his control, but that’s a two-pitch mix good enough to pitch in an MLB bullpen right now.
10. Dylan Dodd, LHP
Age: 25 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 96 in 2021
Dodd was a money-saver pick as a 23-year-old senior out of Southeast Missouri State in the third round in 2021, but reached Triple A last year thanks to plus control and two above-average to plus secondary pitches in the slider and changeup. He’ll mostly sit 90-93 mph and has to work away from the pitch to get to the secondaries for swings-and-misses and avoid harder contact on the fastball. He might be a fifth starter thanks to his left-handedness.
11. Blake Burkhalter, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 204 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 76 in 2022
Burkhalter was a straight reliever in college who works with a fastball, cutter, and changeup that might let him at least move to more of a bulk innings role, although he has no track record of doing so and might be more valuable as a reliever who can move quickly to the high minors and maybe help the major-league bullpen this year or early next.
12. Adam Maier, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 203 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 215 in 2022
Maier suffered a partial tear to his UCL last spring for Oregon but had an internal brace placed in the joint rather than undergoing a full Tommy John procedure. He was mostly low 90s with a promising slider with a hard downward break that might end up plus and some feel for a changeup. He should be able to return to the mound in the early part of 2023, at which point we can see if the stuff is back.
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13. David McCabe, 1B/3B
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 230 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 125 in 2022
“The Big Maple” has an excellent eye at the plate and makes very hard contact, although that didn’t turn into power in his brief time in pro ball. The 2022 fourth-rounder was already 22 at the time of the draft, so he does have some added pressure to hit right away, and may do so while also trying to slide over to third base after mostly DHing in college.
14. Drake Baldwin, C
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 96 in 2022
Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2022 is a great receiver with high contact skills who hit 19 homers for Missouri State last spring, coming out of nowhere with that power output, which didn’t carry over to his 24 games in pro ball. He has a reasonable chance to be a backup catcher just with the defense and contact. If he finds that power again, he could be more.
15. Darius Vines, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 217 in 2019
Vines is a finesse righty with a plus changeup and above-average slider but a 45 fastball that averages just 90-91 mph without great life, so he has to pitch backward to get by and deemphasize the fastball. He struck out more than a quarter of the guys he faced between Double A and Triple A last year, but allowed 17 homers in 140 innings, the majority of those coming off the heater. He might be a fifth starter despite that, but is more likely to end up a long reliever.
16. Tyler Tolve, C
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 517 in 2021
Tolve makes hard contact but has too much whiff in the zone right now, and he’s a good athlete with above-average arm strength who could probably end up a 50 or 55 defender. If he cuts down on the punch, he has the upside of a regular, but it’s a long shot.
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17. Geraldo Quintero, 3B/2B
Age: 21 | 5-8 | 155 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Signed: International signing in 2019
Quintero is a diminutive infielder who makes a lot of contact and works the count well, without the power you typically want from a corner and slightly better defense at second anyway. He can run a little and might have some kind of bench upside. His high contact rate (17.6 percent) as a 20-year-old in Low A and High A makes him interesting.
18. Kevin Kilpatrick, OF
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 186 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 515 in 2022
Atlanta’s 17th-round pick in 2022 out of a Florida junior college is surprisingly toolsy for such a late selection, and he hit .287/.354/.425 in Low A to finish his pro debut. He’s a plus runner with some sneaky pop and could be an extra outfielder.
19. Jesse Franklin, OF
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 97 in 2020
Franklin has 70 raw and a huge swing-and-miss issue, but had Tommy John surgery after just 66 plate appearances last year, missing at-bats he sorely needs to try to improve his contact skills. He’s a good example of how thin this system has become after the Olson, Murphy, and Jiménez trades — he wouldn’t make most teams’ top 20s as an injured player with what might be a fatal flaw in his approach.
20. Adam Zebrowski, C
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 397 in 2021
Another potential backup catcher, Zebrowski has power and receives well enough to stay there, with fringy arm strength and more power than hit.
2023 impact
Shuster isn’t far off, and any of Vodnik, Vines or Dodd could show up in the Atlanta bullpen. We could see Shewmake if Grissom were to get injured.
The fallen
Their second-round pick in 2018, Greyson Jenista, hit just .206/.269/.374 in Triple A at age 25. Atlanta also gave up on Drew Waters, their second-round pick in 2017 and a player they had always held in high regard internally, trading him in a three-man package to acquire an extra draft pick from the Royals in July — the pick the team used to select JR Ritchie.
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Sleeper
The player on this list with the best chance to leap into the top 100 next year is Ritchie, who has the combination of present stuff, delivery and projection to be that kind of prospect if he stays healthy and throws strikes this year.
(Top photo of Jared Shuster: Tom Priddy / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
