I’m back from my six-night, 12-game run through the Arizona Fall League, so I’m emptying the notebook to finish off what I started in last week’s post. I saw every team at least three times, so I’ve got notes on almost everyone on the rosters, barring a few starting pitchers, although in some cases I didn’t see enough of a prospect to include him in either post. The league is very offense-heavy this year, with just a couple of good starting pitching prospects and a lot of reliever-at-best guys who throw hard and either don’t know where it’s going or don’t have a great second pitch. As a result, the offensive stats are comical – I saw one game where the final score was 20-4, and that wasn’t the worst game I saw all week – and teams are churning through pitchers so quickly that many games, including all three for the Saturday tripleheader at Chase Field, were shortened to seven innings.
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• As if things aren’t going well enough for the Padres right now, they’ve got another star prospect on the rise in shortstop Jackson Merrill, their first-round pick in 2021 out of a Maryland high school. Merrill was outstanding on both sides of the ball in Arizona, showing plus range especially to his right, plus speed out of the box, and a solid plan at the plate that included – gasp! – an actual two-strike approach, which I have to admit warmed the cockles of this old man’s heart. He stays back on the ball extremely well and has the swing for at least gap power, although I think as he gets stronger he’ll put 15-18 balls over the fence. He had some trouble with stuff on the inner third, making softer contact there and often hitting them weakly to the right side, whereas anything middle to away he could drive. I believe that will improve as he gets stronger, but he also might need to work to lay off some of those pitches as well.
Jackson Merrill hits AFL homer #1 here in Peoria 🔥 @_jacksonmerrill @Padres pic.twitter.com/lw2OSagdMU
— MLB's Arizona Fall League (@MLBazFallLeague) October 17, 2022
• The Cardinals sent the best batch of prospects of any team, with right-hander Tink Hence (whom I covered in my last post), outfielder Jordan Walker and shortstop Masyn Winn among their group. Walker showed he could hammer good velocity, taking a 98 mph fastball right back up the box with an exit velocity of 110 mph, one of two hits I saw from him that were 110-plus off the bat, but struggled with changeups across multiple games. He looked fine in the outfield, although it’s the bat that’s going to matter. He reminds me a bit of Jermaine Dye, at least physically — both are good athletes but average-at-best runners — although Walker’s ball/strike recognition is well above where Dye’s was at the same age.
Winn is just plain fun to watch – he plays at a higher speed than anyone else on the field, with an 80 arm from shortstop and bat speed to match. He took great at-bats for me, not just because he drew a slew of walks but with good takes on pitches that I think most hitters his age might chase, and he might end up an elite defender between his arm and quick first step. I did see him struggle a little with velocity middle-in or inside, which was surprising given how quick his bat is, although when he did put the ball in play it was usually hard-hit.
• Austin Martin showed flashes of the player I thought he’d be as an amateur, although he’s still not making the regular hard contact he should be making, instead just flashing it. The first pitch I saw him face in Arizona was a 93 mph fastball, right on right, that he drove out to left at 102.5 mph, one of three hard-hit balls I saw from him on the week. He doesn’t swing and miss much at all, and can make contact with pitches out of the zone, but it’s often weaker contact and he doesn’t get to pitches he can drive often enough because he ends some of his plate appearances early. It’s not the shape of his swing so much as how he uses his lower half, which is to say that he’s not consistently getting his legs into it and thus doesn’t always drive the ball like he should. He starts so closed, with an awkward-looking stance that has his lead leg turned in, and while the Twins have worked with him on incorporating more of a leg kick, it was muted in the AFL. He can also get out over his front side a little too soon, which a leg kick should also mitigate. I’m still optimistic here, as he showed that he has the strength to get to harder contact and he looked good in centerfield; he needs to tighten up his swing decisions and get that lower half involved. He has also had multiple hand and wrist injuries in pro ball, all of which can temporarily sap a player’s strength, so perhaps it’s just a matter of getting further away from those to get his contact quality consistently higher.
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• Pittsburgh’s top pitching prospect, right-hander Quinn Priester, is in Arizona to make up for some lost innings after he missed about half of the 2022 regular season with an oblique injury. He showed a four-pitch mix and good command in his outing during the triple-header at Chase Field on Saturday, working 92-96 mph with huge depth on his 78-81 mph curveball and a lot of action on his upper-70s changeup, along with a mid-80s slider that just gives him another look for right-handers. The fastball has good sink to it, so it’s not a swing-and-miss pitch, and he did give up some harder contact to the better hitters in the opposing lineup (Zac Veen, Jordan Lawlar and Walker, so three pretty good names), almost all of it on the fastball, which points to him working more with his quality offspeed stuff going forward. There may not be a huge ceiling here but if he’s healthy, he should have a long career as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter and could be up by the middle of 2023.
OH MY MATT MERVIS 🤯
Mervis smashes his second no-doubt homer and third extra-base hit of the night! @Cubs @NBCSCubs pic.twitter.com/kkyQChLmCD
— MLB's Arizona Fall League (@MLBazFallLeague) October 14, 2022
• So I’ve gotten a lot of questions about Cubs first baseman Matt Mervis, especially after he homered twice in a game last week. I saw all three of his homers during the week while I was there, and all three came on hanging breaking balls from right-handers, pitches he’s not likely to ever see in the majors. Mervis was undrafted twice out of Duke, graduating in 2020 and signing as a free agent with the Cubs, who started him in High A this year as a 24-year-old. He hit well enough there to move up to Double A, and again there to move up to Triple A, hitting .297/.383/.593 with just a 12 percent strikeout rate. He’s very strong, but does not have great bat speed, and even in the pitching-light AFL his difficulty with velocity middle-in or just in showed up very quickly; when pitchers did come inside, even with just average fastballs, he couldn’t do anything beyond popping them up. I could see a role for him as a platoon 1B/DH, like Daniel Vogelbach, but not beyond that.
• This was a big year for older hitters going off in the low minors, from Mervis to Boston’s Niko Kavadas (who is also in the AFL, and is very patient but struggles with better stuff and has to DH) to San Francisco’s Vaun Brown (an 80 runner with power but more swing and miss), but the one big exception I’ve seen to that class is Atlanta’s Justyn-Henry Malloy, their sixth-round pick from 2021. Malloy started in High A this year at age 22 and ended up in Triple A for the last week-plus of the season. Like the other older hitters I mentioned above, Malloy showed excellent plate discipline at all levels, with 97 walks and 138 strikeouts in 133 games this year. He’s the best hitter of this cluster, though, showing better off-speed recognition and ridiculous strength, driving a slider from a right-hander (so he didn’t have the platoon advantage) to right-center for a hard-hit double and turning on average velocity whenever he saw it. I didn’t get him against plus velocity, but didn’t see any issues with his bat speed. I’m surprised he only hit 16 homers this year because everything I saw him hit was loud.
• Several scouts told me that Baltimore’s Heston Kjerstad looked good in the first week of play, but I saw more of the same rust that I saw from him during the regular season. He was behind good velocity and had some trouble picking up off-speed stuff, even from right-handers. I’m inclined to give him a pass on the entire 2022 season, as he missed all of 2020 after the pandemic began and all of 2021 due to myocarditis, going about 27 months between game at-bats. I’m still rooting for him but also concerned that he had such trouble with average major-league stuff every time I saw him.
• Toronto took then-catcher Hagen Danner in the second round in 2017, but after he failed to hit at all in Low A in 2019 and the pandemic hit, he moved to the mound in 2021 and turned in a dominant relief season for High-A Vancouver. He missed almost all of 2022 with an injury, but looked back to 100 percent in Arizona, sitting 97-98 mph with a mid-80s slider and 80 mph changeup. It’s straight relief but if he’s healthy he should move quickly – and has to, as he’s already on the 40-man roster.
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• The Mets took Mike Vasil out of the University of Virginia in the eighth round last year, a huge comedown for a kid who might have gone in the first round in 2018 had he not withdrawn his name from the draft entirely – which, as I will say until I’m dead, is the worst possible decision an amateur player can make. In his case, it probably cost him over $1 million in potential bonuses, as well as delaying his career, as he regressed in Charlottesville and is only now starting to show the promise he had in high school. Vasil was 94-96 mph on Friday night with high spin on the pitch, showing a mid-80s slider and a few mid-80s changeups as well, but struggled with command and control in his outing, walking the first two batters and hitting the third, throwing half of his pitches for balls. The fastball and slider were both above-average pitches, while the changeup had some late action but was easier to see out of his hand. The most likely outcome here is reliever, but I still see the starter ingredients and think he could take another step forward in 2023, as he’s further removed from college and the way UVA altered his delivery.
• Outfielder Brandon McIlwain, another Mets prospect who also removed himself from the draft out of high school and forewent what was likely going to be a seven-figure bonus, posted some strong exit velocities, 107-plus several times for me, but his pitch recognition is just so far behind after he had just 145 total plate appearances across four years at two colleges that the 24-year-old faces long odds to overcome it. (He matriculated early at South Carolina, only to see the coach there lose his job a year later. The lesson here is that no player was ever better off for taking himself out of the draft. Ever.)
• Meanwhile, in the former Mets prospects department, J.T. Ginn threw on Friday afternoon at Surprise and showed a completely different look than the one that made him a first-rounder (who didn’t sign) back in 2018. Ginn had Tommy John surgery as a draft-eligible sophomore and signed for first-round money with the Mets in June 2020, then returned in 2021 with a shorter delivery and sinker/slider approach, rather than the four-seamer he had prior to the surgery, when both his fastball and slider were grade-70 pitches. He’s now sinking it at 92-93 mph with an average slider and average changeup, throwing the latter pitch more, which I think was probably at Oakland’s direction – they seemed to do the same with Ryan Cusick, who threw a ton of changeups when I saw him. Ginn missed a big chunk of 2022 with forearm tightness, not a great sign given his history, and had some trouble with lefties. The changeup is the key for him – he might be a mid-rotation guy with it, as he gets a ton of groundballs now, but without it he might be a reliever.
• Milwaukee reliever Abner Uribe was 97-100 mph with plus sink on the pitch and showed an 87-89 mph slider, coming off April knee surgery that ended his regular season after just three innings. He was in the Fall League last year as well, but walked 17 in nine innings, while so far this year he’s faced 16 batters in four innings and walked none. It’s all about strikes, because those two pitches are good enough to envision him in a high-leverage relief role if he can figure out where the plate is.
Brewers catching prospect Jeferson Quero is one of the youngest players in the league, just turning 20 on Oct. 8. He looks it, as he’s listed at 5-foot-10, 165 pounds, and I’m not sure I’m taking the over on either of those numbers. He’s got a short swing that should generate a lot of contact, with a plus-plus arm and very quick release behind the plate. He’s still young, so he has plenty of time, but he has got to get stronger or else he’ll be the next DJ Garrett Stubbs.
Game one featured several web gems, none better than this one from @Reds number two prospect Noelvi Marte! #AFL22 @MLBPipeline @MiLB pic.twitter.com/CKz9Pokn6U
— MLB's Arizona Fall League (@MLBazFallLeague) October 15, 2022
• A few quick hits on Reds in the Fall League: newly-acquired Noelvi Marte, now their top prospect in the AFL, looked very good defensively at third base, moving very well to his left and showing a plus arm, with a couple of hard-hit balls in my brief looks … shortstop Matt McLain was rather disappointing, making poor-quality contact all week, although he has shown he can certainly distinguish balls from strikes, with 10 walks and five strikeouts in 36 plate appearances so far. He’s an above-average runner but definitely moves to second base … Rece Hinds did what he usually does – whiff a lot and hit the ball very hard when he doesn’t miss. He struggled much more with off-speed pitches than fastballs, although I did see him put breaking stuff in play a couple of times, just not as well as he hits heaters. He’s still a lottery ticket of sorts, as the power is an 80 and he’s not devoid of other skills, but he has struck out right around 40 percent at three different spots this year, and that’s just not playable.
• Angels infielder Kyren Paris looked good at shortstop and second base, but he really struggled at the plate, punching out on average fastballs in the zone and making weak contact when he did put it in play. He’s a plus-plus runner and still projectable, as he won’t turn 21 until next month and is physically immature for his age, but he has no major-league role if he doesn’t get a lot stronger.
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Angels right-hander Jack Kochanowicz has had a rough two years in pro ball, signing in 2019 but not debuting until last year, with both his seasons coming in Low A. He’s looked good in Arizona, at least, as the projection on his stuff is becoming reality. He pitched twice while I was there, and was better the second time: 92-95 mph on his four-seamer, a two-seamer at 88-89 mph and huge, tight downward breaking on an upper-70s curveball. He threw plenty of strikes and the delivery is still good, as it was in high school. His four-seamer is extremely true, though, and that might be a big part of why he’s struggled.
• Boston second baseman Nick Yorke had a huge breakout season in 2021, the 2020 first-rounder’s pro debut, but wasn’t as good in High A this year at age 20, hitting .232/.303/.365 with a 25 percent strikeout rate. He has a great, simple swing that should lead to lots of line-drive contact. But all I saw from him last week was pop-ups and short flyouts, with just one base hit in 11 plate appearances and otherwise moderate to weak contact. That hit came on a 98 mph right-on-right fastball, so it’s not that he can’t hit or turn on velocity (he pulled it to left), just that he’s getting under the ball too much. He’s not going to be a power hitter, but it looked like he was trying to lift the ball too much whenever I saw him. He’s a fringy defender at second so he is going to have to hit to have value.
• Marlins lefty Justin Fall was just 88-91 mph in his start at Chase Field, but he gets a lot of whiffs on his plus changeup and above-average slider in the low 80s, with a lot of depth to the latter pitch. He does sink the fastball and had a groundball rate just over 50 percent in Low A this year, so there’s a path for him to be a back-end starter even at that current velocity, especially since he throws strikes. I’m concerned that the sinker might be too light as he moves up the minors, since he was old and experienced for the level this year and the Marlins didn’t challenge the Arizona State product, even at High A. He threw harder in college, too, so maybe he regains that velocity over time and projects as a No. 4 or even more.
• Miami took catcher Joe Mack with the 31st pick in 2021, taking a risk on a cold-weather kid from upstate New York in what is arguably the worst demographic in the draft (high school catchers). He’s got two tools on which to hang his hat, though, as he showed arm strength and power, while also catching reasonably well in an environment that’s usually pretty bad for catchers – they’re tired from the long season and now have to catch new pitchers, most of whom throw very hard with little idea of where it’s going. He played just 35 games in full-season ball this year due to a hamstring injury, so the main thing he needs now is reps.
• I was looking forward to seeing more of Giants outfielder Luis Matos, who had a very rough year in High A at age 20, hitting .211/.275/.344 for Eugene, although in the end, I think I saw what he was all year. Matos is a hell of a center fielder, with speed and good jumps, but he’s so undersized that he isn’t able to do much at the plate right now, drawing some walks while I saw him but otherwise striking out or making weak contact.
• Guardians infielder Angel Martínez has caught some eyes with his very strong plate discipline numbers, walking 52 times against just 78 strikeouts between High A and Double A this year at age 20, but the real standout is his bat speed. He homered at Chase Field on a hanging curveball, hitting it out at 101 mph, and grounded out in the same game at 97 mph, while earlier in the week he took a good cutter from a lefty back up the middle at 106 mph. I wouldn’t be surprised if his walk rate dipped in the majors, but the other skills held up, and if anything he might end up with more power and less OBP than you’d guess by scouting the stat line. He’s not a shortstop but should be fine at second or third.
• The Tigers released right-hander Nick Richmond last winter after the then-23-year-old had a nondescript season in the Gulf Coast League, but he went out and worked on his delivery on his own over the winter and saw a big velocity gain, leading the Orioles to sign him as a minor-league free agent. He’s working in relief in Arizona, and I saw just two pitches, but both were above-average offerings, with a fastball at 94-95 mph and a hard slider at 85-86 mph. He had a modest platoon split after he signed with Baltimore in early June, so he might just be a right-on-right reliever, but there’s something here. For Detroit to have him and let him go for nothing is indicative of what new GM Scott Harris has to try to change there.
• A’s outfielder Denzel Clarke is a 70 runner with 80 raw power and a body that looks like we borrowed it from another sport. He’s way behind for his age at the plate, though, failing to pick up off-speed stuff but, worse, showing no real sense of a plan at the plate, taking middle-in fastballs in hitters’ counts that he should hit hard enough to tear a hole in the fabric of spacetime. He’s not that experienced a hitter, however, as he grew up in Canada, and since high school he has less than 1,000 plate appearances all told between college, summer ball and the minors, thanks to the pandemic and some injuries, giving him more chance to improve than the typical 22-year-old college product.
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• The A’s took Lawrence Butler in the sixth round in 2018 out of a Georgia high school, and after a disastrous couple of years before the pandemic, he transformed himself, changing his body and his swing so that now he’s a better hitter who lets his athleticism come through. He had no trouble with velocity, nearly homering on a 100 mph fastball, and only struggled against left-handers’ breaking stuff in my look – consistent with the large platoon split he showed during the regular season.
• Seattle right-hander Juan Then is back in the Fall League for the second year in a row after missing the first four months of the season due to elbow problems, throwing just 12 innings in August and September. He was 95-97 mph at Chase Field with a couple of cutters at 87-88 mph with very sharp downward break and some sinkers or two-seamers at 90-91 mph. He’s a good reliever if he stays healthy and throws more strikes, two things that might also be related.
• Arizona right-hander Justin Martinez was 97-100 mph with his fastball, along with a slider/cutter anywhere from 82-88 mph – they might be two different pitches but I thought it was all one pitch. He was very wild, with just 53 percent of his pitches going for strikes, and generated just one swing and miss in 30 pitches, which I think is a function of the slider-whatever pitch just not being that sharp for a guy whose arm is this quick.
• Houston outfielder Will Wagner is off to a tremendous start in the desert, with five doubles and two triples so far in 32 plate appearances. It’s not all a fluke – he’s making legitimately hard contact, at least, and shows feel for the strike zone. He’s a left-handed hitter with a huge platoon split, but I think the 18th-round pick from 2021 has some platoon/bench potential.
(Top photo of Jackson Merrill: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
