We are three months away from the 2022 MLB Draft — which runs from July 17-19 — and the best prospects are starting to separate themselves from the rest of the group. In a class that currently skews more towards position players and high school prospects than college pitchers, outfielder Druw Jones is establishing himself as the top prospect in the class. Keith Law has the latest below:
Druw Jones is the top prospect in this year’s draft class, and while it’s not hurting him that his father, Andruw Jones, was a borderline Hall of Famer, Druw would have the same status even if he were the son of John Jones. He offers the best combination of upside and current skills in the class, helped by the absence of any college pitching that might challenge him, as well as the potential for plus defense the moment he enters pro ball.
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Jones is a smooth, easy defender in center, similar to his dad in his ability to read balls off the bat and move himself into position to make plays; I wouldn’t project any 18-year-old to become an 80 defender like his dad was, but Druw is plus now and he could still improve. He’s a plus runner with 70 power now, even though he hasn’t really filled out physically, with electric hands and tremendous strength in his wrists already, like Andrew McCutchen at a similar age. I was more impressed by his bat control — he can move the barrel around and seems to have an idea when to pull the ball and when to go the other way.
I’ve seen two games with a handful of swings, but between those looks and conversations with scouts, he seems to be the clear No. 1 prospect in the class. The best college position player, Brooks Lee, can’t match Jones’ defensive value or power upside, and we may not have a pitcher go in the top 10 this year. It’s Druw versus the remainder of the high school position player class right now, and while that group is deep, he offers some of the highest upside, and the risk around his hit tool is no greater than that of the typical high school first-rounder.
Speaking of hit tools, Georgia prep shortstop Termarr Johnson has earned raves for his ability to hit, with some scouts saying they think it’s a 70 hit tool, the highest they’ve seen on a high school hitter in over a decade. Johnson is just 5-foot-8 but extremely strong for his size, with elite hand speed that helps him overcome a slight hitch in the swing. He showed strong plate discipline for his age last summer and fall. He plays for Mays High School in Atlanta, and the caliber of pitching he’s faced this spring has made it harder for scouts to evaluate him — and his team has lost several games via the mercy rule, limiting his at-bats. I was fortunate to get four plate appearances from him in a 10-8 Mays victory on Monday that went the full 6 1/2 innings, and also got to see evidence of Johnson’s outstanding makeup.
The risk here is substantial: We were here not that long ago with another Georgia high school shortstop who had to move off the position, Cornelius Randolph, whose hit tool was supposed to be so good that the position question wouldn’t matter. Randolph was the No. 10 pick in 2015, taken by the Phillies, but after a strong pro debut in the Florida Complex League that summer, he never posted a full season batting average over .264 or an on-base percentage over .350, and he slugged .400 just once. I don’t think this is an ideal comparison, as Johnson has a much better swing than Randolph ever did, and Randolph was much worse defensively.
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During the game, Johnson was constantly involved on the field, not just showing false hustle, but acting like an additional coach, giving tips to other hitters and offering direction even while he himself was on the bases. I’ve seen plenty of players offer the usual hackneyed phrases to encourage their teammates, but that’s not what Johnson was doing.
Right-hander Dylan Lesko (Buford HS, Georgia) was the top pitcher in the draft class until this week, when arm soreness caused him to skip a start. He was outstanding at the National High School Invitational (NHSI) event last week at the USA Baseball complex in Cary, N.C., with a changeup so good scouts were laughing in awe. It’s every bit of a grade 70 pitch, the best one I’ve seen a high school pitcher throw, comparable to the best offspeed pitches I’ve ever seen from a high schooler — Dylan Bundy’s cutter, Lucas Giolito’s curveball and Jay Groome’s curveball were all that caliber — although most high school pitchers don’t throw many changeups if they throw them at all because throwing something less hard than the fastball does hitters a favor. Lesko’s deception on the pitch is elite, and the pitch fades hard to his glove side, so even if hitters guess the pitch correctly, at this level they still miss it by a foot. The more interesting aspect of Lesko’s showing was his curveball; by all accounts, it wasn’t even an average pitch coming into the spring, but it was a solid 55 at the NHSI, with 2900 rpm, so while he only threw three curves in his outing it at least demonstrated he has the capacity to spin the ball and to get good shape on the pitch. His fastball is 90-96 mph but it’s the least interesting pitch in his repertoire. If he were a college pitcher and everything else was exactly the same, he would have been on track to go first or second overall. As a high school pitcher, and now one facing a potential long-term injury, however, he’s going to go a lot lower and might end up considering going to school.
Some other notes on players at NHSI:
• Lesko faced off against right-hander Caden Dana of Don Bosco Prep in northern New Jersey, one of the better arms in the northeast this year. Dana is more thrower than pitcher, but he has size and velocity, touching 97 mph once and working 90-95 mph with a four-pitch mix, including a changeup that at least flashed average and a promising two-plane curveball. He lands with his front foot turned, so he doesn’t always stay online to the plate, and he has a habit of rushing through his delivery sometimes, which costs him command, but both of those things can be remedied.
• Outfielder Mason Neville of Basic Academy in Las Vegas showed plus speed and very good reads in the outfield, the combination of which should make him a plus or better defender down the road. He has a sound left-handed swing with good hip rotation for future power, although he’s shown some propensity to swing and miss against better pitching. I do like the rest of the tools here; the hit tool question probably keeps him to the second-round range.
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• Shortstop Mikey Romero of Orange Lutheran is likely to go in the top-50 picks as one of the more polished prep position players in the draft class, although his lack of ceiling might keep him from getting into the first round. It’s a no-stride approach with quick hands, and he has good hand-eye to get the bat to the ball, rarely swinging and missing even against good competition over the summer. There’s no power in his current swing, though, and I wonder about his ability to adjust to better offspeed stuff given the lack of any stride and the way his front foot rolls over through contact. He’s a solid defender at short already with enough arm to stay there.
• Right-hander Aiden Weaver, of Central Bucks East High in northeast Pennsylvania, threw three innings on Wednesday in a home outing against North Penn. He was 93-96 mph for the first two innings, striking out the first six batters he faced, with both a slider and changeup in the mid-80s. The slider was short but seemed to have tight spin, while he didn’t show great feel for the changeup. In the third inning, however, he tailed off to 87-91 mph and gave up the first hard contact of his day, which ended his outing. He has a great 6-5 frame and uses his lower half well to generate velocity, although there’s enough head-whack at release that he often lost his cap after letting go of the ball. North Penn started a lefty, Dylan Brown, who was 85-87 mph but spun a very pretty two-plane curveball; the 6-4 southpaw is committed to Old Dominion and is the perfect guy to go to school to see if he adds velocity as he fills out.
(Photo of Druw Jones: Courtesy of Team USA)
