The Rays continue to produce talent in every possible way, led by pro scouting and international free agency, but with more production from drafts in recent years. Three of their top six prospects came over in trades, as did three more in their top 20 — a testament to the integrated approach their front office takes to all transactions.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
Ages as of July 1, 2022.
1. Shane Baz, RHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 7)
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 12 in 2017
The world got a glimpse of what Baz can do in his brief time in the majors last year. In three starts, he faced 49 batters, struck out 18 of them (37 percent) and walked just three. That came on top of an incredible run through the minors (and a stint in the Olympics), where Baz carved up Double-A and Triple-A hitters at similar rates, with 113 strikeouts and 13 walks between those levels. What you saw in the majors is what Baz can do as a starter: He can bump triple digits and will sit in the mid-to-upper 90s, although he sometimes starts out games with lower velocities and builds as the game goes along. His slider is a wipeout pitch, a grade 70 offering at its best, and his curveball has become an above-average or better weapon as well; major-league hitters had trouble with both pitches, and they both have strong spin rates. He barely used his changeup in the big leagues but has a solid/average one for a real four-pitch mix. The surprise in Baz’s development is how good his command and control have become. He fills up the strike zone and has already shown a feel for pitching that perhaps wasn’t evident when he was blowing away high school hitters with velocity. He looks every bit like a No. 1 starter, and he’s got the track record of durability so far to back that up.
2. Josh Lowe, OF (Top 100 ranking: No. 21)
Age: 24 | 6-4 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 13 in 2016
Lowe had his best year as a pro in 2021, moving up to Triple A and setting career bests in homers, walks, doubles, slugging, OBP, batting average and stolen base success rate (he was 27 for 27, which will be hard to top). The Rays’ first-rounder back in 2016, Lowe has made steady progress up the system and had his one injury come during the lost 2020 season. The 2021 season was the first season where he had everything working, showing off his plus power and plus run tools, as well as his ability to get on base. Lowe was a third baseman and pitcher in high school but the Rays converted him to centerfield in his first full pro season, and he’s become an above-average defender there, with the arm to profile in right as well. He has 20 homer/20 steal potential, along with the patience to post OBPs above .350, which would make him at least an above-average regular wherever he plays, with 5-WAR upside if that 20/20 becomes more like 30/20.
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3. Vidal Brujan, 2B/SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 39)
Age: 24 | 5-10 | 180 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Bruján returns to the top 100 for a fourth straight year, although it’ll probably be his final one, as he’s more than ready to help the Rays (or any team) in the majors in 2022. He’s an outstanding athlete who has great bat speed and a long history of high contact rates — he’s never punched out 70 times in any season, and his strikeout rate in Triple A of 15.4 percent was the highest of his career. His swing is direct and short, but with enough loft in the finish for average power. Bruján is a plus defender at second, and has played some shortstop, but the big news in 2021 was that the Rays tried Bruján a little bit in center, and he looked good enough to play there more in the future. He’s at least a 70 runner and that speed is kind of wasted at second, while centerfield takes better advantage of it. He could be in the lineup right now for at least two positions for just about any club, and a threat to steal 50 bases in his peak years while playing plus defense at second or in center.
4. Taj Bradley, RHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 58)
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: R | Throws: R
Drafted: No. 150 in 2018
Bradley was the Rays’ fifth-round pick in 2018 as a classic high school projection arm, and over the course of 2020 and 2021, his projection has turned into reality, as he’s seen all his stuff tick up and his body start to mature. Bradley dominated Low A and High A last year at age 20, with a 31 percent strikeout rate and 8 percent walk rate, working with a mid-90s fastball and a power slider at 84-89 that helped him destroy right-handed batters. His changeup has improved as well to the point where it’s solid-average, so he’s able to get left- and right-handed batters out enough to profile as a starter. His delivery works, keeping him online to the plate, with deception from a high 3/4 slot and a short arm action he repeats well. His command and control have both jumped since 2019, with the latter probably average now and the command around grade 45, and given his athleticism and his rapid development to date, he has the potential to get to above-average command with three above-average pitches, which would make him — wait for it — an above-average starter in the majors.
5. Curtis Mead, 3B (Top 100 ranking: No. 94)
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 171 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
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The Rays picked up Mead in a minor trade from the Phillies for left-hander Cristopher Sanchez in a trade in November 2019, when Mead had only played in the GCL. He debuted in full-season ball this year, and hit .321/.378/.533 between Low A and High A, along with a four-game stint in Triple A in September, leading all minor-league hitters with 38 doubles. He has a quiet approach at the plate, staying upright most of the way through contact, with just a small toe-tap and very quick, late hand acceleration. He hits the ball hard to all fields, with his power more the line-drive sort than big home run power for now. He’s also improved his defense at third substantially since 2019, when it was unclear what his position might be, although he’s played some first and second and should get some reps in the outfield corners as well. He might end up with a 60 or better hit tool, hitting .300ish with 40 doubles in a full major-league season, and that would make him a regular at third or even in right.
6. Xavier Edwards, 2B (Just-missed list)
Age: 22 | 5-10 | 175 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 38 in 2018
Edwards has great feel to hit, can play above-average defense at second base, and even added third base to his skill set … but he just hasn’t been able to hit the ball hard enough to profile as more than a fringe regular yet, with exit velocities more in the 86-87 mph range. If you think Nick Madrigal was a top 100 prospect — I did not, for the record, and I stand by that — then Edwards would be one as well, because he hits the ball a bit harder than Madrigal does, and is younger, and a better defender at second. He’s a plus runner who hasn’t had great success on the bases, but the speed does make center field a possibility if he ever changes organizations.
7. Jonathan Aranda, IF
Age: 24 | 5-10 | 173 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Aranda has played some first, second and third, with first base the most likely but second not out of the question. The Mexican infielder can really hit, whatever his position, and the Rays helped him get more into his power last year, as he’s always had bat speed but last year started getting the ball more consistently in the air. He hit .323/.412/.538 last year between High A and Double A, and crushed lefties despite being a left-handed batter. If he could definitely play second or third, he might be a top 100 prospect. I could just be underestimating the bat because he’s 5-10, and he’ll just be so good a hitter that he’ll play every day at first.
8. Willy Vasquez, SS/3B
Age: 20 | 6-3 | 191 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Vazquez might have a chance for a 60 or better hit tool, with a feel for the strike zone that’s so good that the Rays moved him up to Low-A Charleston for the playoffs, where he hit a bases-clearing triple to help the RiverDogs win the deciding fifth game of the championship series. He’s got great bat speed and strength already in his wrists, backspinning balls to the gaps, but he’s going to get to more power as he fills out. Vasquez was 6-feet tall when he signed but is closer to 6-3 now, with room to add 20 pounds. So far he’s looked good at shortstop, while also taking some reps at third base; even playing a few innings in center, which makes sense given his above-average speed. It’s a pretty exciting package given his pitch recognition and plate discipline, the whip in his bat, and the potential upside as he fills out.
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9. Heriberto Hernandez, OF
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Hernandez makes a lot of hard contact with above-average power, and he’s willing to run deep counts, although the Rays are working with him to get a more consistent approach so that he can sometimes attack earlier in counts. He’s in the outfield now, no longer catching, and has enough arm for right field. The strikeout rate of 28 percent is a little concerning for a 21-year-old in Low A, and he’ll have to manage that as he faces better pitching, but there’s 30 doubles-20 homers potential here with a strong on-base percentage, which would make him a quality regular in right.
10. JJ Goss, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-3 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 36 in 2019
Goss returned from Tommy John surgery to throw in instructs, pitching at 92-95 mph again; prior to the surgery he would show a 55 slider, feel for a changeup and a good delivery he could repeat. He was also aggressive in attacking hitters with everything and had a chance to be a No. 3 starter. If the stuff is all back, he should get back on that ladder.
11. Cole Wilcox, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-5 | 232 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 80 in 2020
Wilcox, acquired in the Blake Snell trade, got off to a great start last year, throwing bowling balls in the upper 90s with a hard slider. Then his elbow gave out, late enough in the season that we probably won’t see him again until 2023. He was an SEC product in Low A, so he was advanced for the level, but you couldn’t have asked for more. He walked just five guys in 10 starts, striking out 52, continuing the pace he’d started at the University of Georgia when the pandemic happened. I still like him as a potential No. 2 starter, but it’s wait-and-see mode now.
12. Greg Jones, SS
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 175 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 22 in 2019
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Jones is an 80 runner with great bat speed, and the switch-hitting shortstop started to come into some power last year, hitting more homers (14) in 2021 than he did in two years in college, including a summer on the Cape (12). He’s hitting the ball harder than ever, reaching peak exit velocities of 110-plus in High A last year. He’s a much better hitter right-handed, which is less than ideal for someone this fast; batting left-handed, he has a huge leak, and as a result, he has a lot of timing problems and doesn’t pick up spin very easily. He struck out one-third of the time he was batting left-handed last year, and that’s even with him always having the platoon advantage. He’s improved at shortstop since college, with a plus arm and some more consistency, but I would still love to see him in center.
13. Carlos Colmenarez, SS
Age: 18 | 5-10 | 170 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Colmenarez broke his hamate bone right before the season started, so when he began to play in the Dominican Summer League, the Venezuelan shortstop didn’t hit for any power or even the same kind of contact quality the Rays expected, even with good bat speed. He has a plus arm with great actions and projects to be a 55 or better defender at shortstop.
14. Austin Shenton, 3B
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 156 in 2019
Shenton came over in the reliever swap with Seattle that sent Diego Castillo to the Mariners and brought J.T. Chargois back to the Rays. It was surprising, given how effective Castillo was and the fact that Tampa was very much contending, but the Rays make small, shrewd moves like this to keep their player development machine rolling. Shenton is a bat-first prospect with a chance to stay at third base, showing an advanced approach with good feel for the strike zone, even against left-handed pitching, and can show plus power in batting practice that should eventually transfer over to games. His teammates have called him “mini Moustakas” for his similarities to the Reds infielder, although Shenton has a better eye at the plate than Mike Moustakas ever did. Shenton’s position will determine whether he’s a solid regular or someone with a chance to be a star.
15. Seth Johnson, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 40 in 2019
The Rays have taken it slow with their third pick from the 2019 draft, as Johnson had just one year of pitching under his belt at the time of the selection. He was an infielder up until his junior year at Campbell University, but showed tremendous arm strength that spring, topping out at 98 mph, but without a lot of secondary stuff. His changeup showed progress at the alt site in 2020; while in 2021 his slider was improving in velocity, up to 88-89 mph, although it’s still a third pitch for him and he is much less effective against right-handed batters. He’s so athletic and gets to the velocity easily enough that it seems a shame not to start him, but if the breaking ball doesn’t improve further he might be better suited to relief.
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16. Carson Williams, SS
Age: 19 | 6-2 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 28 in 2021
Williams was the Rays’ first-round pick in 2021, a hard-throwing shortstop who has great hands for the infield, although scouts questioned his footwork. He didn’t hit well against better velocity as an amateur, despite quick hands and a willingness to let the ball travel, as well as a swing that lets him keep his hands inside the ball. Right now, he doesn’t project to hit for power and might have to move off shortstop, which limits his chances to be a regular.
17. Cooper Kinney, 2B
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 34 in 2021
Kinney was the Rays’ second pick in 2021, a high school second baseman – not a great demographic – with the potential for a plus hit tool and at least 55 power when he fills out. He lets the ball travel well and has great hand acceleration to still get to velocity, with plus bat speed and good angle to drive the ball to the gaps, which in time should lead to at least 15-to-20-homer power. He’s a below-average runner and fielder, which may be why the Rays also gave him a look at third in pro ball, although second base is much more likely. He was also a catcher in high school but there’s no talk of him returning there, and his bat is probably so far ahead that it wouldn’t make sense to do so. High school second basemen are rarely drafted high because it takes a lot for your high school team to choose to not to put you at shortstop, and Kinney’s size (6-3, 200 pounds already) may just make him a corner outfielder instead. If he hits like the Rays expect him to hit, though, it won’t matter. There’s a small chance he ends up with better than a 60 hit tool and nobody even remembers when he played on the dirt.
18. Michael Mercado, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 40 in 2017
Signed to an over-slot bonus in 2018, to make him one of the few players to turn down a scholarship to Stanford, Mercado blew out a year later and returned in 2021 on a limited schedule. He was 91-96 mph with both a four-seamer and sinker, while throwing three secondaries, highlighted by a changeup that was above-average with good arm speed and action when he didn’t overthrow it. My concern is that he doesn’t have an out pitch, and right now his four-seamer is too true, which is part of why he was homer-prone last year in High A. He does project to 55 command and still has some room to fill out, as well as getting a potential boost once he’s another year removed from Tommy John rehab, so there’s quite a bit of variance here, with mid-rotation upside not out of the question.
19. Ford Proctor, C
Age: 25 | 6-1 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 92 in 2018
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The Rays moved Proctor behind the plate for 2021, and it’s good enough that he should be able to stay there, which in turn takes him from possible bench piece who would be so much more valuable if he could play shortstop to someone with an outside chance to be a regular. He hit for more power and less average last year, but that tradeoff probably won’t work in his favor – he’s more of a pure hitter for contact who should use the whole field and settle for eight to 10 homers a year. His on-base skills are strong, consistently so, and if I’m right about the hit tool, he will at least be an extremely valuable … um … utility catcher? Something like that.
20. Jayden Murray, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 698 in 2019
Murray was the Rays’ 23rd-round pick in 2019 out of Dixie State College, which was still a Division II school at the time, as a senior sign, but he’s turned into a legitimate starter prospect with three pitches — two of which are solidly above-average and pushing plus in the fastball and slider. He’s 6-1 with a good delivery and pounds the strike zone, walking less than 5 percent of batters he faced between High A and Double A last year. He had separate streaks of four and three straight games where he didn’t walk a batter. He could be a back-end starter, maybe even more depending on how well the fastball plays against better hitters.
Others of note
Lefty John Doxakis would be a top 20 prospect in most systems, top 15 in many, as a command-and-control lefty who has three average-to-55 pitches. The Rays went slow with him last year, starting him in Low A even though he was 22 and had pitched in the Big 12, which is the main reason he’s not on the top 20 as he dominated younger, less experienced competition and still hasn’t seen Double-A hitters. … Cuban right-hander Sandy Gaston continues to show huge stuff with below-average command and control, but he improved from walking a man an inning in 2019 to walking, uh, six guys per nine innings, so there’s a long way to go for the 19-year-old … Nick Bitsko, the Rays’ first-rounder in 2020, underwent shoulder surgery shortly after signing and still hasn’t pitched in pro ball. The hope is that he’ll be ready for minor league spring training and able to pitch in games when that season starts. Prior to the operation to repair a torn labrum, the 6-4 right-hander had been up to 96 mph with a plus curveball. … Osleivis Basabe played well at shortstop in Low A after missing May due to some minor injuries, showing plus speed and good plate discipline but still lacking strength for better-quality contact. He has plenty of athleticism to at least make his way to the majors as a utility guy. … Lefty Ian Seymour was out until early July with soreness in his flexor tendon but was excellent after he began pitching, going through three levels with 55 control and a plus changeup. His stuff might be light for a starter, but he at least has value in some kind of long relief/swing role, and there’s some chance he could pitch in someone’s rotation. … Right-hander Tommy Romero doesn’t throw that hard, but he has a high spin rate and hitters swing through it like he’s pumping gas, and his changeup is good enough to limit left-handed batters, so he could be a fifth starter or another high-quality reliever. … Matt Dyer was the return from the Mets for Rich Hill in July, and after the trade he went off in Low A, although it was mostly BABIP-driven (.463, which is not sustainable) and he was old for the level at 22. He does make some quality contact and can move around to several positions, including catcher, so he has a chance to make it as a backup with unusual versatility in the field and a little pop. … Their fourth-round pick from 2020, middle infielder Tanner Murray, missed most of the season with a hamstring strain and an injury to a finger on his left hand, but hit well in a month in Low A as a 21-year-old. … Catcher Rene Pinto could be a Mark Parent-like backup, with plus power and low on-base percentages. … Third baseman Alejandro Pie had a disappointing U.S. debut in the Florida Complex League at age 19. He has the strength for very hard contact, but his approach was focused on making weak contact rather than swinging and missing, which may, in fact, have led to more strikeouts. … Right-hander Victor Muñoz is 6-3 with a great starter’s build and already shows some feel to pitch with solid-average control. … Left-hander Antonio Jimenez was just 130 pounds when the Rays first signed him at 16, but he’s up to 165 pounds now and works at 91-95 mph with a fast arm. Like Muñoz, his teammate in the FCL, he also throws a ton of strikes. Both should be in the Low-A Charleston rotation to start the year. … Blake Hunt can catch and throw, and he has plus power, but it’s probably not even a 40 hit tool right now between the swing and miss and the trouble doing anything on contact that’s not a home run. It’s a combination of a swing that’s geared only to pull the ball and some poor pitch selection. … Kam Misner, acquired for Joey Wendle in a trade this winter, has four plus tools, just not the one that matters most, striking out just a shade under 30 percent of the time during the regular season and one-third of the time in the hitter-crazed Arizona Fall League. I think it’s more a swing thing than a pitch recognition thing, but either way, he’s had issues hitting better pitching going back to college. … Outfielder Mason Auer, their fifth-round pick out of a two-year college in Texas, has plus speed, above-average power and a plus arm. He led his junior college conference in average and on-base percentage this spring, and finished second in the conference with 11 homers. If his approach holds up as he moves to Low A, he could be a steal. … As for Brendan McKay, he had surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome after throwing just 12 ineffective innings last year, putting his career in jeopardy. We’ll have to see how his stuff returns when he’s back on a mound, which should be this April.
2022 impact
Baz is one of their five best starters now, but might start the year in Triple A or the bullpen depending on how the Rays want to deal with their pitching surplus. Both Brujan and Lowe are ready to be contributors in the majors but are blocked and might have to wait for an injury to open a spot.
The fallen
The Rays’ first-round pick in 2015, Garrett Whitley, missed all of 2018 due to a shoulder injury and struggled at the plate in 2019, so his solid year in Double A last year came at age 24, and after a tough month in Triple A (.172/.269/.301, 33 percent strikeout rate), the Rays chose not to add him to their 40-man. He signed with the Brewers as a minor-league free agent.
Sleeper
Vasquez has so much upside at the plate and has enough of a chance to stay at shortstop that he offers the best bet to make a big leap this year ,while also offering high upside from positional value.
(Photo of Shane Baz: Douglas P. DeFelice / Getty Images)
