Toronto has graduated and traded some great prospects in the last few years, and yet it’s still strong thanks to a burgeoning group of up-the-middle prospects signed as international free agents, along with a few draft guys who’ve seen upticks thanks to help from the team’s player development staff as well. If there’s a weakness in the system, it’s in potential starting pitchers, as their strength on the pitching side is right-handed relief.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
Note: Ages as of July 1, 2022.
1. Gabriel Moreno, C (Top 100 ranking: No. 6)
Age: 22 | 5-11 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Moreno exploded in Double A to start 2021, hitting a hilarious .373/.441/.651 in 32 games for New Hampshire, before a pitch broke one of his thumbs and kept him out more than two months. He returned for a few games in September in Triple A, then went to the Arizona Fall League and the Venezuelan Winter League, getting another 40 games of reps and raking in both places. Moreno is an incredibly athletic catcher, moving extremely well behind the plate, and has an above-average arm. He’s an above-average defender, handling short hops well and showing great facility to move the glove around, but could easily slide to other positions if the need arose, especially third base. At the plate, Moreno has a short, quick stroke that leads to a lot of contact. He has excellent plate coverage as well, so he doesn’t run many deep counts, at least not yet, and might end up getting most of his on-base percentage from his high batting averages. A premium defender behind the plate who puts the ball in play a ton and has some pop is a potential impact player on both sides of the ball, and his unusual athleticism for the position makes him the type of player you should bet will improve when he needs to.
2. Orelvis Martinez, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 44)
Age: 20 | 6-1 | 188 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Signed for $3.5 million in 2018, Martinez finally got to make his full-season debut in 2021, hitting .279/.369/.572 in 72 games for Low-A Dunedin, leading the Low-A Southeast League in slugging by 60 points even though Dunedin is a tough park for power hitters. Including a late-season promotion to High-A Vancouver, he hit 28 homers in 98 games, with an acceptable 25 percent strikeout rate, all as a 19-year-old playing the left side of the infield. He’s a fringe runner with a plus arm, already getting too big for shortstop but very likely to end up a solid defender at third base. His value is in his bat, though, as he has excellent bat speed and is short to the ball with plus power already, projecting to 30-plus bombs in the majors. His ultimate value will come down to where he plays and whether he can keep his contact rate up as he faces better pitching, with the potential to be an impact cleanup hitter when he hits his peak years.
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3. Kevin Smith, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 89)
Age: 25 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 129 in 2017
Smith hit .209/.263/.402 in Double A in 2019 with below-average defense at shortstop, on top of a poor performance in High A the year before, and anyone who’d bet on him reaching the big leagues in the next season probably would have gotten incredible odds on it. He started to rework things at the plate in the middle of that season, continuing it at the alt site in 2020, and it paid off in 2021, as Smith hit .285/.370/.561 in Triple A with a career-best walk rate and big cut in his strikeout rate. He’d made some adjustments in 2019 to try to get to more high fastballs, but it cost him coverage to the rest of the zone, while in 2021 he was back to his previous swing while also working to be more selective early in counts, looking for pitches where he can do damage. He’s also staying quieter at the plate, keeping his head steadier and loading his back hip earlier to get to more power without sacrificing contact. It’s worked, and as a middle infielder who’s an above-average defender at multiple spots and has power, he has a chance to have a long, productive career.
4. Jordan Groshans, 3B (Top 100 ranking: No. 99)
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 12 in 2018
Groshans had another injury-interrupted season where he performed well when he was able to play, hitting .291/.367/.450 despite jumping two levels to Double A — and that after playing only 23 games in Low A back in 2019. He’s already shown some advanced skills at the plate, from his swing decisions to his ability to drive the ball the other way, with the potential for 20+ homers once he adds a little more strength. Groshans played more shortstop than third base this year, but he’s not a shortstop, and while he might end up a solid-average defender at third, he’s going to have to work on his flexibility and avoid getting too tightly wound as he continues to bulk up. He has a plus arm that will help him at third or, in the worst case scenario, if he has to move to right field. He’s a well-rounded player who does a little of everything but hits with the feel of a player who’s older and has more than the 619 pro plate appearances he has, so he should be a solid-average regular even if he never takes a big leap in power or has to move off the dirt.
5. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 19 in 2021
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Hoglund had a chance to go in the top 10 last spring, but his elbow screamed and he underwent Tommy John surgery in May, which is how the Blue Jays found him available when they picked at 19th overall. Hoglund’s value was in his present command and control, which were already above-average at the time of his injury, as he didn’t have anything above a 55 in his arsenal. He walked just 35 guys in 154 career innings for Ole Miss, and that was going to get him through the low minors quickly, at least. He’ll probably come back slowly this year but be ready for Double A in 2023, with fourth starter potential once he’s recovered.
6. Leo Jimenez, SS
Age: 21 | 5-11 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Jimenez had the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of any hitter in a full-season league last year (minimum 200 PA), with 54 walks and just 36 strikeouts in 262 plate appearances. The Panamanian shortstop is an elite defender, possibly a 70, despite just average speed at best. He hit his first professional home run in 2021, so power is not a core skill here, but his exit velocities have been creeping up and he can show average power in BP. He may need to get more aggressive in games, trading some of those walks for more oomph, to use the technical term; with his glove it won’t take much of that oomph to make him a regular.
7. Manuel Beltre, SS/2B
Age: 18 | 5-9 | 155 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Signed for $2.35 million in January 2021, Beltre didn’t hit for average last year but did everything else, from getting on base to making hard contact to playing above-average defense at shortstop. Just 5-9, 155 pounds, the fun-sized Beltre was posting exit velocities over 100 mph while making great swing decisions. He’s a reliable shortstop with an accurate arm and good footwork, making routine plays already, not rangy enough for highlight plays but enough to project as a 55 defender there. The bat has a chance to be special for a shortstop, and in a larger sample he probably won’t post a .258 BABIP again.
8. Sem Robberse, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-1 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
The Dutch right-hander Robberse was just in the mid-80s when the Jays first signed him out of the Honkbal Hoofdklasse in 2019, but he was sitting 92-94 last year and bumping 96. He’s always had a great delivery, and as his velocity has improved, both of his breaking balls have as well, with a good chance that one of them will end up a plus pitch. He needs to develop a viable changeup, as he’s already showing a big platoon split, but if he does that he has mid-rotation upside.
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9. Ricky Tiedemann, RHP
Age: 19 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 91 in 2021
Tiedemann was the Blue Jays’ third-round pick in 2021 out of a two-year college in California, where he went after he went undrafted in 2020 (which scouts said at the time was more about his bonus demands than any real question about his abilities). He was 89-93 in the spring with an above-average changeup and future 55 slider, with size and delivery also in his favor. In instructs, he was sitting 96 and touched 98, and still throwing a ton of strikes. If he carries that over into 2022, he’ll be their best pitching prospect in May.
10. Otto Lopez, 2B/OF
Age: 23 | 5-10 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Lopez spent 2019 in Low A and finished 2021 in the majors, thanks to a year of high contact rates and doubles power across Double and Triple A. He has quick hands at the plate and covers the plate well, hitting for contact but no power, as he finishes open and doesn’t get anything from his lower half; I’d worry about right-handed breaking stuff giving him trouble, but it hasn’t happened so far. He’s a fringy defender at several spots, mostly second base and left field. He’s an above-average runner and played center for the Gigantes del Cibao in the Dominican Winter League this winter, which could help him find a role as a super-utility guy if he doesn’t hit enough to be a regular at second. A multi-position or bench role is his most likely outcome unless he finds another grade of power.
11. Rikelbin De Castro, SS/2B
Age: 19 | 6-0 | 150 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
De Castro made his pro debut last year at age 18 in the Florida Complex League, making adjustments during the season so that in the second half of his summer, he was both hitting the ball harder and showing better command of the strike zone. He’s an exciting defender at short who’ll need more reps to improve on the routine play, but there’s no reason he can’t end up a 55 defender at short or plus at second. He’s athletic and still really projectable, with the potential for another grade of power or more. With the caveat that this sort of thin-slicing is dangerous for drawing conclusions, if you split his 2021 season in two, he hit .327/.485/.577 in the second half, with 14 walks and 17 strikeouts. I’ll buy that more if he carries those adjustments over into 2022, but it’s a good sign that he showed he could improve within a short campaign.
12. Estiven Machado, 2B
Age: 19 | 5-10 | 170 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
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Machado played one game, and got one at bat, last season due to a hamstring injury that wouldn’t clear up, so we’re still dealing in projections and tools with no performance to judge. Signed for $775,000 in 2019, Machado is a great athlete and already filled out, so the expectation for last year was that he’d show at least good doubles power and quality contact, maybe getting into some power early. He’s an average runner — with two working hamstrings, that is — who’ll have to maintain his body to stay at shortstop, with the hands and arm to handle the position. He just barely took the field last year.
13. Miguel Hiraldo, 2B/3B
Age: 21 | 5-11 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Signed for $750,000 in 2017, Hiraldo had a mediocre full-season debut at age 20 last year, hitting .249/.338/.390, doing nearly all of his damage against lefties (when he had the platoon advantage). Hiraldo has strong hands and good bat speed, but can over-rotate and pull off the ball; if the ball is spinning away from him, he has very little shot to hit it squarely. He’s not a shortstop and will have to work to be average at second or third. He’s just 20 with some physical ability in his favor, but he’s getting passed quickly by other infielders in this system.
14. Dasan Brown, OF
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 88 in 2019
Brown is an 80 runner and plus defender in center who has tremendous bat speed but has had difficulty getting his timing right at the plate, often finding himself a fraction of a second late and out of position to make good contact. The Blue Jays did help him make a swing adjustment towards the end of the 2021 season that seemed to help his timing issue; with his speed and defense he doesn’t have to hit a lot to be a big-leaguer.
15. Eric Pardinho, RHP
Age: 21 | 5-9 | 155 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Pardinho returned from Tommy John surgery to make two brief outings in the Florida Complex League in July, but an unrelated elbow issue led to him being shut him down again, and the Jays chose not to protect him on their 40-man roster this November. He’s a very poised, mature pitcher for someone so young and inexperienced, with a potential plus curveball and solid-average velocity back when he was healthy. He’s also 5-9, which makes him an unlikely starter (but not an impossible one), and he’s had elbow issues for three straight seasons now, so even if he’s completely recovered, it’ll be a long ramp to get him back up to a starter’s workload.
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16. CJ Van Eyk, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 198 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 42 in 2020
Van Eyk’s results didn’t match his stuff in 2021, as he was sitting 93-94 with four pitches, led by a curveball that’s above-average. He had two disaster starts where he couldn’t get out of the first inning, adding over a run to his ERA for the entire season, but he needs to throw more strikes, not just in terms of reducing walks but in getting ahead in counts so he can use his three offspeed pitches, any of which can show above-average. He still projects as a starter but at 23 this year he has to show better command.
17. Samad Taylor, 2B
Age: 23 | 5-10 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 302 in 2016
Taylor was a surprising omission from the Jays’ 40-man roster, coming off a breakout year where he played solid-average defense at second and posted career highs in homers (16), OBP (.385), and slugging (.503), along with 30 steals in 38 attempts. He was helped some by Double-A New Hampshire’s home park, although that park tends to be more favorable to left-handed power, not right. He’s versatile in the field, with reps at third, left, center, and even short, although that last position is more of an emergency spot for him. I think he’s a solid bench piece right now and expect to see him taken in the Rule 5 draft.
18. Adam Kloffenstein, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-5 | 243 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 88 in 2018
The 6-5, 240+ pound Kloffenstein, who went to high school with Groshans and was drafted in the same year, had a rough full-season debut in 2021, walking 61 batters in 101 1/3 innings, a major reason he had an ERA over 6. He’s sitting 92ish now, back down after he ticked up while pitching in Indy ball during the shutdown in 2020. He’ll flash two breaking balls that could be above-average or better weapons for him, but still lacks a pitch that he can use to get lefties out; they tagged him for a .388 OBP and .508 SLG last year. Step one will be getting back to throwing strikes, though, or he has no future as a starter.
19. Irv Carter, RHP
Age: 19 | 6-4 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 152 in 2021
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The Blue Jays’ fifth-round pick in 2021 out of a Florida high school, Carter is a physical kid already and saw his velocity tick up a little after he signed, sitting 94 in instructs. He comes from a high slot that puts some plane on the fastball and gives depth to his breaking ball. He’ll have to develop a changeup and work on getting more consistency to his delivery and fastball command. He does look like the kind of high school kid who’s going to throw very hard and be ready to shoulder a big workload in three-to-four years.
20. Hayden Juenger, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 182 in 2021
The Jays’ sixth-round pick in 2021, Juenger went right to High A and dominated in 20 innings, striking out 46 percent of the 74 batters he faced. He sat 95 and can hit 97, with a 55 slider and fringe-average changeup; he could move very quickly this year as a pure 1-2 inning reliever.
Others of note
Right-hander Yosver Zulueta returned from Tommy John surgery but injured his knee while fielding a ball facing the first batter in his first outing of 2021 and had to have season-ending surgery. When healthy, he’s been 94-99 with a four-pitch mix without present command or control. … Right-hander Chad Dallas has a plus slider and 93-95 mph fastball, and he’s stingy with free passes, but he lacks fastball life — he gave up more homers (21) than walks (20) for the University of Tennessee last spring. It’s a long arm swing that makes him late relative to when he lands, all factors that might point to a bullpen future. … Seventeen-year-old Yhoangel Aponte is a plus defender in center who posted impressive exit velocities for his age in the Dominican Summer League, even though it didn’t show in his superficial stats. … Catcher Victor Mesia only got into 29 games in his pro debut last year due to some minor injuries, but he’s very strong and hit well in his brief stint in the FCL as an 18-year-old; he should be the starter in Low-A Dunedin this year. … Lefty Zach Logue struck out 144 guys in 125 innings between High A and Double A, working with a plus changeup and a deceptive delivery. There’s effort to it but his low three-quarters slot kills lefties and he hides the ball well from righties, but it’s control over command and I don’t know that this works in a major-league rotation, especially since his misses tend to get hit hard. … Right-hander Joey Murray was hurt most of the year with elbow trouble, making just one appearance; when healthy he’s only 89-90 but it’s an “invisiball” that hitters swing right through. He throws enough strikes that he could surface as a reliever once his elbow recovers. … Right-hander Trent Palmer has a three-pitch mix with a splitter that might be plus, but he has a hard time repeating his delivery and walked 16 percent of batters he faced as a 22-year-old starter in Low A. He almost certainly has to go to the bullpen but he has upside there. … Centerfielder Gabby Martinez walked more than he struck out as an 18-year-old in the FCL, playing just 31 games there due to injury. The stat line says he didn’t homer last year, but that’s not quite true — he hit one, but passed another runner on the bases, so the homer didn’t count. … The Blue Jays added reliever Hagen Danner to their 40-man roster after just one year of pitching; they drafted him as a catcher in the second round in 2017, but he never hit, so he moved to the mound in 2021, where he worked in the upper 90s with potential to his slider.
2022 impact
Smith should be on the big-league roster as the starter at second or third. Lopez could get some time as a utility infielder.
The fallen
Toronto’s first-round pick in 2016, T.J. Zeuch couldn’t miss bats in Triple A and struggled in his third look in the majors last year, so the Jays designated him for assignment before trading him to the Cardinals for cash.
Sleeper
Tiedemann’s uptick in stuff, as well as his history going back to high school, make him seem like a very good candidate to blow up (in the good way) in 2022, assuming the new velocity holds.
(Photo of Gabriel Moreno: Chris Bernacchi / Diamond Images via Getty Images)
