Klawchat 10/22/21.

Starting at 1 pm ET. Subscribers to the Athletic can read my second scouting notebook from the Arizona Fall League.

Keith Law: Look here junior, don’t you be so happy. It’s Klawchat.

Tim: What should be the first priority for the Cubs? Sign Correa?
Keith Law: That seems like the wrong direction. This team isn’t rushing back into contention in 2022, not with that rotation. They’re building now, whether they say so or not.

Millie: Who has the highest ceiling out of the AL rookie pitchers this season?
Keith Law: Does Shane Baz count in your mind? He’d be my choice.

James: How big a deal the DBACKS won the final game of season and pick second instead of first ?
Keith Law: History says it’s a big deal, based on how much more valuable 1st overall picks have been than 2nd. In this particular draft, I think it might be less of a big deal, because the class looks deep up top in bats, and I don’t think there is a clear 1-1 guy (yet).

Noah: Hi Keith, I’m just here once again to thank you for your reporting and chatting and also to do my weekly “how the hell is Sandy Alderson still running the Mets?” spiel.  But seriously, why and how?  (same goes for his son)
Keith Law: I don’t understand why he has any say in the new President/GM hires. I can only imagine it’s a Manfred thing. As for Brynn, the midyear promotion and new contract raised a lot of eyebrows around the sport. It doesn’t matter if he deserved it – that decision should be reserved for the new GM, and since his father gave it to him, it’s impossible to see it as anything other than nepotism.

James: What places have you gone to eat in AZ for the fall league ?
Keith Law: I wrote that up here yesterday.

Javis: Given the rough left-side defense and the wealth of SS talent available this offseason, should the Red Sox consider realigning Devers and Bogaerts to make room for a premium SS?  (Bogaerts to 2B? Bogaerts to 3B and Devers to 1B?)
Keith Law: I’m pretty sure they view Nick Yorke as their 2b of the future, and would probably avoid moving Bogaerts there as a result. OAA has both Xander and Devers among the worst in baseball at their positions this year, but is that their talent level, or perhaps a function of positioning? If it were just one, I’d blame the player, but with two guys on the same side of the infield both grading out that way, perhaps it’s systemic.

James: Been to tratto by Bianco in Phx to eat yet ??
Keith Law: Yes, right when it opened. Wonderful.

Deke: If you were in charge of the Padres, what would your offseason strategy be?

(Personally, mine’s “experienced manager, try to find some bullpen reinforcements, do whatever it takes to find a real first baseman, and do almost nothing else.” Getting healthy is the biggest task without a close second.)
Keith Law: Agree on the biggest task part. They probably make the playoffs if their rotation stays healthy. And with Gore looking like he’ll be ready to help, I’m more bullish on their starters. They’re also going to have to make a decision on Abrams/Tatis in the near term. One moves to CF, I assume, and then Grisham goes to a corner?
Keith Law: As for the manager, I don’t agree it has to be someone with experience in the majors. Just don’t hire someone with no managerial experience at all.

Aaron in Indy: Yeah, Klawchat.  

OK, looking at this from a outsider, but was stunned about the Mgr. change in St. Louis.  No bias (I’m a reds fan) but it seemed like Shildt had a decent but flawed team that played hard all year long and did reach the playofffs.  Any inside reason why the Cardinals organization made this move??
Keith Law: The local press has indicated it’s that he wouldn’t work with the R&D department as much as Mozeliak liked. To which I say, why the hell wouldn’t he?

Tim: Do you think Luis Robert will win an MVP in his career?
Keith Law: He has the tools to do so, but I think the approach at the plate will be the thing that keeps him from getting to the top. Of course, Abreu won last year, and wasn’t even close to the most valuable player in the league – or even top 5 – so who the hell knows.

JL: As an Atlanta fan, please tell me why I should feel this one won’t end differently than all the other heartbreaks they’ve given me in my lifetime. Please, Keith? I’m begging you.
Keith Law: I never made LCS picks before the series because I was in Arizona, but I said on TSN Vancouver after game 3 that I would have picked the Dodgers before the series started, even though the odds were now more stacked against them. I’m sticking with that. They have the pitching advantage now, even though they have to win two games.
Keith Law: I guess that’s not the answer you asked for.

Deke: Did you see the incredibly assholish JD Vance tweet mocking the Alec Baldwin situation? It’s just incredible where we are these days.
Keith Law: No, but I wish folks would just ignore his performative assholishness, because attention is all he’s after.

bk: Are you still in AZ? Will you get to see Gabriel Moreno?
Keith Law: I left on Sunday. He wasn’t there.

Dave: Are you team dark mode or light mode on iPhone?
Keith Law: Light mode. Much better for your eyes.

Gabe: im looking to get into the fiction genre , what book would be a good start?
Keith Law: It depends a bit on your tastes, but if you’ve really not read fiction since high school, try something genre that appeals to you – a good mystery, sci-fi, fantasy, whatever fits. You’ll learn what you like as you continue reading, and then if you decide you want, say, more “serious” literature, you can move up to that.

Brian, CT: Keith, Tennis has effectively gotten rid of line judges and gone to all electronic calls. How much longer are baseball fans going to have to put up with what happened in Game 4 of the ALCS?
Keith Law: The automated strike zone is coming. Maybe 2023.

Alex In Austin: Your reporting from the AFL and automated strike zone was informative.  Do you think with more time and adjustments that pitchers would be more aggressive in the zone and long-term it could lead to more swings and a faster pace?  Or, should the zone just be expanded an inch on both sides?  I guess the good news is it seemed accurate.
Keith Law: My personal opinion is that they’ll have to widen the zone a little bit to avoid games like the last one I saw, with 22 walks in 7.5 innings. But with an automated zone, you can fine-tune it (during offseasons, please, not midyear or even midgame) to get the desired levels of called balls and strikes.

Alex: Just curious, but did you ever end up reading Klara and the Sun?  Always enjoyed your thoughts about Kazuo Ishiguro’s books but didn’t see a review posted here.
Keith Law: Not yet. It hasn’t been out that long.

Clayton: After Gore, Abrams, Campusano and Hassell, anyone stand out to you in the Padres organization?
Keith Law: I mean, that’s good enough, no?

KM: What are good body wash / deodorant / etc options for someone with sensitive skin and no toxic chemicals / ingredients? (I know you’re well educated on a variety of issues and value you your opinion)
Keith Law: I’ve never looked into that, but beware products that claim to be “non-toxic.” The dose makes the poison. “Non-toxic” is pandering marketing speak. Also, don’t drink your body wash. Selenium sulfide is extremely effective at treating dandruff. Selenium itself is an essential trace mineral with antioxidant properties. It’s also poisonous at less than 1 mg/day.

Deke: I’m sure there’s an Athletic piece about this at some point, but if there’s not — how do you expect the big five (or four?) at SS to shake out? Who goes where?
Keith Law: I don’t do team predictions for free agents – I don’t see why my guesses provide any real value to you – but I have already begun free agent rankings, with some thoughts on what I think these players merit in the current market, and those will run on The Athletic right after the World Series.

Justin: Are you in favor of something like a $100 mil salary floor?  Even the Pirates might be watchable if they were forced to spend the $60 mil to get there and did so intelligently .
Keith Law: Not if it comes with a cap.

Cold Turkey Stearnes: Do the Padres get Gore on the 40-man this winter, hope rule 5 status keeps him in the org, or are they down enough on him to not care much?
Keith Law: Are you actually asking if the Padres would consider not protecting him? That’s … well, just read what I wrote about him last week.

Cole: Any thoughts on the Angels parting ways with Matt Swanson as scouting director?
Keith Law: I’m assuming Minasian wanted his own guy in that role – Swanson was an Eppler hire. Certainly not Swanson’s fault that the Angels rushed Adell, or traded Wilson to save a few bucks.

Zack: What app / device did you use to track your running? I know you mentioned it in a blog post way back?
Keith Law: Fitbit. Does the job well enough.

Adam: All I want for Christmas is a full, healthy season from Trout and Buxton in 2022.
Keith Law: Don’t we all. Throw Tatis in there too.

Jeff: Keith, what would you do with the glut of righthanded 1B/DH/LF on the White Sox?  Is to too early to consider trading Eloy and looking to get more balanced between LH/RH?
Keith Law: That’s an interesting thought. Not so much about getting more balanced L/R, but using the corner bat surplus maybe to address a need elsewhere.

This is about politics: SCOTUS is likely to uphold the Texas abortion ban. If they do, will this be the tiger-catches-its-tail moment for the GOP?
Keith Law: My gut reaction is yes, in that it will mobilize a lot of independent voters, but 1) that’s really not an evidence-based opinion and 2) if the GOP has gerrymandered the shit out of the country, will it matter?

gjf: I know you listen to music a lot , what headphones / earbuds do you recommend?
Keith Law: I have Bluetooth headphones from Raycon I really like for audio. They’re not great for phone calls but the audio quality is tremendous and their battery life is very strong.

Randy: I recall you saying you’ve heard mixed things about Elijah Green (before the showcase circuit). Where do you see his general range after his performance this summer? Top 5? Top 10? Closer to back of the first?
Keith Law: He’s going in the top 10 for sure, barring injury or some weird disastrous James Wood-type spring. I hear the same things on him – off the charts physical gifts, real questions on the hit tool.

Chris: If the Yanks give Seager over 300m and he has to move to 3B in a year or two, will he hit enough to justify it?
Keith Law: Yes.

Michael: have you seen or heard anything about how Nolan Gorman is taking to 2B?
Keith Law: Looked okay in the brief look I had in AFL, but not as good as he’s looked at third.

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Is there a way to make a pitch clock work?
Keith Law: Yes.

Steve: Keith: has Houck shown enough of a 3rd pitch to profile as a starter next year.
Keith Law: Not yet.

nb: Hey Keith – As a suffering Phillies fan, I’m glad they’re making changes to the player development area.  I mean at this point guys like Kingery, Howard, Moniak are simply organizational failures.  My question is this:  When evaluating and rankings, how much stock do you put in the organization they’re with?  Let’s say there are 2 prospects who you had similar scores on heading into the draft and they both play the same position.  One gets drafted by the Phillies, the other by the Dodgers.  Does the fact that LA does a much better job developing their guys make the LA draftee a better prospect?  Thx!
Keith Law: I don’t consider it at all. Any player might be traded at any time, and an evaluation of the player should be team-agnostic.

R. Mann: Do you buy into “moving Torres to 2nd base makes him a better hitter”?
Keith Law: Helped Luis Urias this year.

Guest: What’s the slot money drop from picking #1 versus 2nd? The Pirates were able to pay for an extra 1st roundish player using savings.
Keith Law: About $600K this past year. That’s not what paid for the Pirates’ bonus to Solometo, though – they signed Davis well under slot, and that paid for it.

JR: Had Lindor not signed an extension and played out his last year making him a free agent, what type of contract do you think he gets this off season? More or less $/years?
Keith Law: Similar. Maybe the down year gets him a little less, but I doubt it – it’s not like he seemed to be an appreciably different player and he’s still quite young for a free agent.

Cold Turkey Stearnes: What is the lowest grade a defender will play a position at as a regular in the Majors?  Obviously a well-below average 1B would become a DH, but what is the line for say a CF moving to a corner, or a SS moving elsewhere on the infield?
Keith Law: Depends on your alternatives, no? Teams play below-average defenders at SS, CF, etc. because that’s the best option (sometimes to get a bat in the lineup).

PK: Best newish board game for 10 year old son to play with parents? We like cooperative games but he’s gotten better about losing recently (we’re Cubs fans).
Keith Law: How about Juicy Fruits? That’s my review from August or so. One of the best new games I’ve played this year and definitely good for a 10-year-old.

Jay: Given the Red Sox’ history with Mookie Betts (deciding to deal him, rather than give him a long term contract), do you see them shopping Devers this winter, when his value will be at its highest, rather than next winter, when he’ll be eyeballing free agency after the 2023 season?
Keith Law: My guess is they’ll try to extend Devers. Sounded like Betts was always determined to get to free agency.

Shane: Still reason to believe in Jeter Downs?
Keith Law: Yes. Two-level jump was probably too much to ask.

3EB: Is Anthony Volpe headed towards being one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball to start the season next year?
Keith Law: No.

Dan: Have you been following the local Ben Simmons drama? I generally always on the players side – holdouts, strikes, opt-outs – go get your money while you can and don’t let the team take advantage of your rare talent. But I can’t understand Simmons’ perspective here. It seems like he thinks some valid criticism of his play have made his team relationship irreparably damaged (as an outsider with limited inside knowledge, of course). I’m curious as to your thoughts given your experience with team-player relationships.
Keith Law: He plays basketball, right?

Chris: Keith, I don’t know what to make of Tristan Casas. I know a lot of people are very high on him, but stats-wise, the numbers aren’t there. I saw he hit a HR in the AFL the other night, but then also saw it was on a 93mph fastball. What’s the proper expectation for him next season, and then in the future?
Keith Law: I like him, obviously, given past rankings, although I think there’s a fair amount of projection involved there – that he’s going to hit for more power as he gets older. Looking back, I’d compare him in that way to Freddie Freeman, who didn’t get to power until several years into his MLB career (around when the league-wide HR spike began, too). Freeman was a solid producer in the minors, then a solid big leaguer for a few years, then became a superstar. That used to be a pretty typical career path. I’m not saying Casas will be Freeman but I could see a similar slow trajectory towards his ceiling.

Gerry in Philly: Preston Mattingly a good hire by Philly?  Minor league system is seriously flawed
Keith Law: I’ve heard excellent things. Met him a few times but never chatted more than casually.

Dave: I recall you being extremely bullish on Derek Hill when the Tigers drafted him.  He obviously hasn’t lived up to expectations, but seemed (to my untrained eye) to hold his own in the majors this year. Is there still room for growth there and/or reason for optimism?
Keith Law: Loved the swing, the defense, the speed. He’s disappointed for two reasons – he’s been hurt a lot, and he has refused to develop any kind of patience, which his sort of hitter absolutely has to have. You can’t be a fast low-power low-OBP guy unless you’re Andruw Jones on defense.
Keith Law: That said, he could still do it. I’m a Hinch fan, and I’d like to see what he and his staff can do with Hill over a full season.

Matt: Thanks for the chat, and the recent AFL writeup. As a Cleveland fan, I’m curious about Palacios. Kind of a guy who popped at the upper levels, and from everything I’ve read, finding a defensive home might be the biggest issue. I know AFL is a short look, but do you see him at 2B? Chances he could hit enough for LF? Or is this just an “interesting” guy who probably fits somewhere on the bench?
Keith Law: More than a bench guy for me. Maybe a Tampa Bay-style multi-position guy. He can hit/get on base, though. I’m in.

Ryan: Will the owners lock out the players? It would be really stupid to do so since the owners are making so much money on their teams, franchise values … and those greedy greedy players… how dare they want more money for the services they provide.
I just hope CBA talks stall we get a more balanced take on what’s going on as opposed to every
Keith Law: I think we get some kind of interruption, but I am just hopeful that the two sides see there’s too much money at stake to lose a chunk of the season.

Tony: About two years ago, I wrote to you in a chat asking about how you feel about prospects who you doubt certain skills. And how, you don’t take pleasure in saying, “See, I told you guys he wouldn’t make it.” It was actually centered around Austin Riley when his bad speed was getting majorly exposed at the MLB level. I believe your response was along the lines that you are delighted when you are proven wrong because that means a kid made it. I’m sure that has to be what you feeling for Riley now considering how much he really did struggle out of the gate. I’m glad that his team gave him the chance to keep working on his game to make those adjustments.
Keith Law: Absolutely. Can’t believe you remember that (I didn’t), but I appreciate you bringing it back up. Having spoken to Austin for my story, too, I can tell you he’s someone you want to root for. And I told him how proud he should be of himself for doing something so unusual – very, very few hitters can make this big of a change to their approach in the majors, and especially now with pitching as good as it’s ever been. It’s incredibly impressive and I’d say it’s one of the things I most love about my job – watching players grow and improve, whether I predicted it or not.

Jeff: Were you able to see CWS prospect Jose Rodriguez at the AFL?  If so, thoughts?
Keith Law: Yes, a little. (Sorry, just went to grab my notebook.) Kind of a slap hitter, bit stronger than that but below-average power, with no approach. See ball, hit ball.

Matt: What should our endgame for COVID be?  I don’t see the virus ever fully going away, and I don’t want to carry on with restrictions forever, either.
Keith Law: The restrictions are the price of ignorance. If everyone were vaccinated, the virus wouldn’t go away but its circulation would be diminished enough that we could get back to semi-normal. I’ll probably wear masks for a long time, though. (It’s nice to not get the flu or many colds, either.)

Mike Trout: Feels like a while since I’ve seen a movie review on your blog. See anything good lately?
Keith Law: Nothing in a while now. We’ll do more movies when the season ends.

Ted: FWIW, I agreed with your take at the time that the Cubs didn’t get enough for Darvish.  Looking at it now, do you see any of the four prospects obtained becoming a “guy”?
Keith Law: Preciado stands out. Still think the return was light, though.

Michael: My kid is a freshman in college. He seems depressed. Loves school, having a ton of fun, but not going to class and has trouble getting out of bed. I can’t make an adult go in to therapy and am trying to be supportive and also give tough love from afar. Any tips?
Keith Law: You did mention the one thing I’d push for – there should be tons of resources for him. You could reach out to the school as well. Not going to class is a big red flag, to say nothing of the possibility he fails a class or two.

Ryan: Saw the headline “MLB clubs plan to give housing to minor leaguers” this week. It was great that they cut all those minor league teams so teams had more to spend on things and do that to start this year… oh wait, MLB had to be dragged through the mud and see other teams use it as an advantage before telling everyone to do it. Those stories about minor league life are terrible and MLB should be ashamed for how they’ve treated minor leaguers… just because they were treated this way in {pick a year} doesn’t mean it’s ok now.
Keith Law: Yep. It’s a good step. Still too little and way too late. Call your Congresspeople if you care. The hashtags and wristbands are cute and all, but they aren’t going to create real change.
Keith Law: You know what got the housing policy changed? News stories about players sleeping in cars and the like.

Clayton K: Most healthy water for you?
Keith Law: I shoot for a hydrogen to oxygen ratio of 2:1. I try to avoid heavy water, though. It doesn’t deu any good.

Jon: What are your thoughts on the Eagles this season?
Keith Law: We’re not that good. But maybe it’s a development year for Hurts?
Keith Law: Sucked to see Zach Ertz go, though.

Tom: The long nightmare of the Albert Pujols contract is finally over, however, the Angels weren’t close at all to making the playoffs, and they still have Upton’s money pit deal (he’s secretly been as bad as Pujols the past few years). What do they do this off-season? I guess try to address pitching as best they can?
Keith Law: That’s what I would do. Plow it into starting pitching.

Joe: High school teacher here – will the pledge of allegiance ever go away in schools? We still have it on the announcements every day but almost no one stands or recongnizes it anymore. Can we just let this thing go or would we hate America too much if we did that?
Keith Law: Eventually. It’s an absurd exercise in performative patriotism.
Keith Law: I’m glad to hear kids don’t stand for it. You don’t have to pledge allegiance to our government, let alone a piece of cloth.

Danny: You said before the season that if scouts thought Austin Wells had even a 20% chance of catching, he’d be a top 100 prospect. Have those odds of catching changed after his first pro season?
Keith Law: Nope.

Marani: From afar, I always got the impression that Aaron Boone was neither part of the problem nor part of the solution for the Yankees, but Yankees fans seem to be near unanimous in their disappointment that he’ll be back next year.  How would you evaluate his managerial skills?
Keith Law: I would agree with you – he’s certainly not part of the problem.

Deke: Allison Williams leaves ESPN because of the vaccine mandate and goes to the Daily Wire, where Matt Walsh said “Yes, I said that I don’t like female analysts and reporters in football. No, I don’t care if that upsets you. No, I don’t apologize. Yes, I think women are feminizing traditionally male spaces. Yes, I think that’s bad. Yes, I’m right. No, your whining doesn’t change any of this.”

No question, just … damn, what an incredible self-own on all sides.
Keith Law: He’s a fountain of bad takes. Also, as someone who left ESPN, imagine leaving them for that site. That’s a choice, all right.

Graham: I tweeted you about this the other night—the Braves used a defensive replacement in CF Wednesday night that wasn’t Pache. If they aren’t using Pache there, why is he on the roster, and as a follow up, have they totally given up on him?
Keith Law: First question, agreed, second one, I don’t think so at all.

Shane: RIP to the perpetually underrated Peter Scolari
Keith Law: Oh wow. He was indeed underrated. So good on Newhart.

Max: Should the Cardinals be giving Alex Reyes a shot as a starter or just accept that he’s bullpen material and ride him that way?
Keith Law: His delivery & injury history really say “reliever.”

Paul: Not sure I saw him come up on any of your playlists. Have you listened to Bartee Strange?
Paul: and nevermind you did recommend some of his stuff please disregard.
Keith Law: Hah, yep, Mustang was pretty good, looking forward to what he does next.

Paul: Are you familiar with Seiya Suzuki at all? Any comparisons or what to expect?
Keith Law: If he’s posted, I’ll write him up.

Nate: Idk if you saw where the Astros apparently just lost Ehsan Bokhari to the Cubs FO…do you have any thoughts on what the Astros FO is currently like now? Like has Click made any effort to bring his own lieutenants to offset the brain drain, or done anything different to help reshape things from the Luhnow regime? Seems like we’d already had a pretty big exodus of guys to begin with even before that
Keith Law: Known Ehsan for a while, he’s extremely sharp. I think Sarah Gelles has taken over his role, and she’s also very well-regarded, although I don’t know her personally.

Alex: Have you ever thought about doing board game video reviews?
Keith Law: Funny, I have. Hoping to do something along those lines this winter.

Luis Urias: You claimed moving Luis Urias to 2B helped him become a better hitter this year, but who’s to say that he couldn’t have improved this year regardless of his position? I thought correlation doesn’t equal causation?
Keith Law: OK. It was pretty easy to see the change from watching him, but you do you, I guess.

JBisson: Thanks so much for these chats, Keith. Always one of the highlights of my day. Do you think Leody Taveras made enough improvements with the bat to warrant an extended look in the TEX lineup in 2022?
Keith Law: I really hope to see him back in CF for them next year. Way too young to give up on him.

Eric: Will 2022 be another completely lost year (Top 5 pick) for the Orioles?
Keith Law: Hard to see them competing with the pitching currently in the organization & the competition in that division.

SD: Is Abrams playing in the fall league? Have you seen him?
Keith Law: He did not play at all last week. I was told he wasn’t physically ready but I don’t know if that was the broken leg or something else.
Keith Law: I mean, still related to the broken leg. Obviously if he had a broken leg now he wouldn’t play. That would be a bad idea.

Pat D: I know you mentioned doing movies after the season, and I know you’ve brought up the book several times, so any interest in seeing the new “Dune?”
Keith Law: 100%.

Bob: You made a brief comment on Pedro Leon. I know it’s tough when a player doesn’t do much in a live look, but was your negative tone suggestive that others have not seen big tools?
Keith Law: I thought I acknowledged the big tools, just that he looked really bad against a lot of different pitchers last week.

Mike Trout: James McCann isn’t blocking anyone. ETA for Alvarez?
Keith Law: 2023 for Francisco.

Mike: And for heaven’s sake, don’t you be so sad.
Keith Law: Glad someone got it. I was afraid my age was showing.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. Thank you so much for reading, as always, and for all of your questions. Free agent rankings will be up around November 5th, so keep an eye out for that. And don’t forget my books The Inside Game and Smart Baseball as you do your holiday shopping! Stay safe, everyone.