The Diamondbacks placed more prospects on my top 100 — seven — than any other club, and their system also runs very deep, especially in pitching. It should start hitting Phoenix this year, not a moment too soon for the big club.
To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
Advertisement
1. Corbin Carroll, OF (Top 100 Ranking: No. 16)
Age: 21 | 5-10 | 165 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 16 in 2019
Carroll’s 2021 season ended after just seven games, when he suffered a significant injury to his non-throwing shoulder on a home-run swing and had to undergo surgery to repair it. He started off on fire, going 10 for 23 with two homers, but now he’s entering his age-21 season with just 215 pro plate appearances, none above High A. Carroll spent much of the rest of 2021 sitting in the front row at Chase Field with scouts, asking questions to try to make something of the lost year, while also rehabbing intensively every day over at Salt River. Carroll is a five-tool talent who could have been a candidate for the first overall pick if he were taller, but there’s plenty of power and bat speed in his 5-foot-10 frame, and he should be a plus defender in center with plus-plus speed. The one real question about him, beyond specious complaints about his height from scouts who’ve listened to too much Skee-Lo, was how he’d fare against better pitching than the private-school competition he faced in high school. The limited sample we have so far is encouraging, and every scout who’s seen him seems to come away believing he’ll end up with a 60 hit tool. He has .300/.400 AVG/OBP potential, and a full season this year would probably put him in the overall top 5.
2. Jordan Lawlar, SS (Top 100 Ranking: No. 31)
Age: 19 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 6 in 2021
Lawlar had the best package of tools in the 2021 draft class, and if he hits like the Diamondbacks expect, he’ll be a five-tool player who’s among the best players in his league when he reaches his peak. Arizona took Lawlar with the sixth pick out of a Dallas-area private school, drawn to his athleticism, his plus speed and plus arm, and potential for plus power in time. He has quick wrists and shows good bat speed, although he didn’t face much quality pitching with his high school team, and didn’t get to play as much over the preceding summer due to the pandemic. Unfortunately, Lawlar hurt his non-throwing shoulder in his second pro game in the Arizona Complex League, requiring surgery to fix a tear in the posterior labrum and ending his season, although it did mean he could spend some quality time with Carroll at Chase Field. It’s a lost opportunity for some at-bats but shouldn’t affect him in the long term. It comes down to the hit tool: If Lawlar hits, he’ll be in the running for the top overall prospect next year.
Advertisement
3. Alek Thomas, OF (Top 100 Ranking: No. 34)
Age: 22 | 5-11 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 63 in 2018
A three-time top 100 prospect, Thomas went from a hit-over-power kind of prospect before 2021 to a hit-and-power kind of prospect during the season — not a 30-homer guy in time, probably, but someone who could hit .300 with 20 bombs regularly in his peak years. Thomas has natural feel to hit, even with a slightly awkward setup, consistently putting the bat on the ball at above-average rates everywhere he’s played. He was 19 the last time he played in real games before the pandemic, and came into more strength in the interim. He hit as many homers in a half-season in Double A than he did in all of 2019, then had a blast in the thin air of Reno, with eight more homers in 34 games. Thomas is intelligently aggressive at the plate, looking for a pitch he can drive with the ability to put the ball in play if he doesn’t get it. He’s a plus runner who has never had success on the bases, running at about a 60 percent success rate throughout his career, and should be a 60 defender in center. He doesn’t have the same pure upside as system mates Carroll and Lawlar, but he projects to be an above-average regular with a high floor and should be in the majors before the midpoint of this season.
4. Geraldo Perdomo, SS (Top 100 Ranking: No. 63)
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 203 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Perdomo wasn’t ready for the majors when he got an emergency call-up to start the 2021 season, and struggled badly when he went to Double A a few weeks later, so the Diamondbacks sent him to Salt River for a few weeks to rework his swing and improve his conditioning. He returned to hit .321/.407/.530 in 35 games in Double A the rest of the way, and finished the season with a far more successful cup of coffee in Arizona, making much harder contact in his return. He’s a switch-hitter with good bat speed both ways, but it’s cleaner and more direct from the left side, where he hit all six of his homers last year (even with good loft in his right-handed finish). He’s a plus defender and at least a 60 runner with plenty of arm strength for the left side of the infield, and he’s shown good control of the strike zone throughout his brief career. Even if he never comes into double-digit homers, he’s a solid regular, but these small swing adjustments and his physical maturation point to at least 12-15 homers down the road.
5. Ryne Nelson, RHP (Top 100 Ranking: No. 74)
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 184 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 56 in 2019
Advertisement
Nelson was a two-way guy for two years at Oregon, then worked in relief and as a starter in his junior year, walking 41 men in 65 innings for the Ducks. Arizona still took him in the second round, betting on his athleticism and that his arm speed might pick up once he was used correctly. They were right; he touched 99 this year, worked 93-96, with potential plus pitches in both his slider and his splitter. He kept getting better as the season progressed; after a rough start in Double A, where he walked 15 men in his first four outings, he walked nine men total in his last 10 starts, striking out 78 in 58 innings. Nelson works with a no-windup delivery, uncommon but not necessarily a problem for a starter, getting on top of the ball well and giving power to everything he throws. The Diamondbacks’ trio of top pitching prospects (Nelson, Drey Jameson, Brandon Pfaadt) could go in any order, but Nelson is the safe bet who offers the strongest combination of current stuff and command.
6. Drey Jameson, RHP (Top 100 Ranking: No. 84)
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 24 in 2019
Jameson made a ton of adjustments in 2021, his first full season in pro ball (after a year when he didn’t go to the team’s alternate site), from mechanical changes to adding a pitch to learning how best to deploy all of his weapons. Jameson can now sit 96-98 with his four-seamer but has introduced a two-seamer at 90-92 to get some quicker outs, along with a plus slider and above-average changeup. He’s very athletic, which he has to be given his hurry-up delivery. He’s on line to the plate and gets on top of the ball well, but he comes off the rubber quickly and only someone this athletic could repeat his delivery. He’s more of a control guy than command and probably always will be given how he pitches, but he’s probably going to miss a ton of bats and get weak contact when he doesn’t. He’s the big upside guy among the Diamondbacks’ big three pitching prospects, less of a sure thing than Nelson or Pfaadt, but the guy most likely to end up a No. 2 starter.
7. Brandon Pfaadt, RHP (Top 100 Ranking: No. 87)
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 149 in 2020
Pfaadt was the Diamondbacks’ fifth-round pick in 2020 out of then-D2 Bellarmine University — which has produced just one big-leaguer in its history, right-hander Todd Wellemeyer — and signed for just $100,000, but has turned out to be their best prospect from that class. Pfaadt is a big, physical right-hander, 6-foot-4 and 225-plus, who fills up the strike zone with three pitches, touching 97-98 but sitting 93-94 with good sink and some natural cut. He doesn’t have a clear plus pitch, but repeats his efficient delivery well for average command already, having dominated two levels of A ball before running into some home run trouble in Double A (12 in 33 innings, although nine of those came in two starts). He may not have the pure upside of some of Arizona’s other arms, but he has a fastball that plays, a great delivery, and a strong build for 30-plus starts a year.
8. A.J. Vukovich, 3B
Age: 20 | 6-5 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 119 in 2020
Vukovich was a star basketball player in high school, and the lack of baseball experience has shown in pro ball, especially when it comes to controlling the strike zone. He has an ugly approach, but he makes a lot of hard contact and shows power to all fields already. The Diamondbacks’ fourth-rounder in 2020 out of a Wisconsin high school, Vukovich has only played third base in pro ball but might end up in right field.
Advertisement
9. Blake Walston, LHP
Age: 21 | 6-5 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 26 in 2019
Walston was very inconsistent in 2021, often pitching at 88-90 mph instead of the 90-94 mph that he’s capable of showing, and had outings where opposing scouts thought he wasn’t really in the game. One of his closest friends committed suicide last February, and of course it’s possible that explains the tough year Walston had on the field. He’s very athletic with four pitches and has a good delivery, and there’s still projection there, so I wouldn’t give up on his upside just yet.
10. Ryan Bliss, SS
Age: 22 | 5-9 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 42 in 2021
Bliss could have been a first-rounder if he weren’t 5-foot-9 and somewhat slight of build, but he has more pop than you might guess from his appearance, is a plus runner, and has good range for the middle infield — although his arm might push him to second base. He doesn’t strike out very often but his control of the strike zone isn’t that advanced. He’ll have to tighten that up to either get on base more or allow him to still get to his 15ish home run ceiling.
11. Bryce Jarvis, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 18 in 2020
Jarvis strained an oblique muscle while in Double A last year, missing about six weeks, and wasn’t right when he returned. His stuff was intact but his command was clearly off. Jarvis has a four-pitch mix and has been up to 97 mph, pitching more in the low- to mid-90s; and his changeup was plus again last year, resulting in a dominant performance against left-handed batters (.178/.267/.215, with just one of the 12 homers Jarvis gave up). His slider and curveball could both be more consistent, as his fastball isn’t good enough for him to get right-handers out on its own, and we’ll have to see how his command looks after an offseason of rest. The Diamondbacks’ first-round pick from 2020 still has a high floor as a back-end starter.
12. Kristian Robinson, OF
Age: 21 | 6-3 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Advertisement
Robinson missed the year while trying to get his visa renewed in the wake of a 2020 arrest for assaulting a police officer, a charge for which he received probation in August. The Diamondbacks hope he’ll be able to resume his career in the spring after a year when he could only play in some B games on back fields. He’s a huge outfielder with tools to match, showing plus power, plus speed and an above-average arm. He is playing center for now but potentially will move to right as he gets older. He struggled with pitch recognition before, as a young player who grew up in the Bahamas and didn’t see much quality competition until he signed, and now he’s lost two years of at-bats between the pandemic and his legal issues. His physical gifts are too good to give up on, but his odds of success have gone way down due to how much time he’s missed.
13. Joe Elbis, RHP
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 150 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Elbis was just 18 last year but dominated the Arizona Complex League thanks to plus control and his ability to execute all three of his pitches well, with a fastball at 90-94 mph that plays up because of how well he moves it in and out to hitters. If the Venezuelan right-hander picks up more velocity in the next few years, he already has the feel and command that could make him a No. 2 starter.
14. Seth Beer, DH
Age: 25 | 6-3 | 213 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 28 in 2018
I’m not sure any player wants or needs to see the universal DH more than Beer, who has enough bat to play in the majors but can’t play any position well enough to do so. He’s patient and has above-average power, and should do a lot of damage against right-handed pitching while being adequate against lefties, enough to keep himself in the lineup.
15. Slade Cecconi, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 219 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 33 in 2020
Cecconi’s year started with a wrist injury and ended with a sore elbow that took him down for the rest of the regular season at the end of July. In between, his stuff backed up a little from what he’d shown in instructs the year before, which led the Diamondbacks to draft him 33rd overall in 2020. His slider should be good enough to get him to the majors in some role, while the delivery might prevent him from ever getting enough command to start.
Advertisement
16. Corbin Martin, RHP
Age: 26 | 6-2 | 225 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 56 in 2017
Martin’s return from Tommy John surgery didn’t go well, as he tried to pitch through some forearm soreness, first losing command and then losing velocity so that he was topping out at 92 mph in his last outing at the end of June. He would sit 94-95 mph prior to the first injury in 2018-19, with a four-pitch mix and a good starter’s build. But at this point we have to see his stuff return before thinking of him as a future rotation candidate.
17. Luis Frias, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 245 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Frias is probably a reliever in the long run but shows two potentially plus pitches in his fastball and slider, with deception in his release that makes it harder for hitters to pick up on which one he’s throwing. He’s probably never going to have the command to start and lacks the third pitch he’d need for it, but he might be up to 100 mph in the pen.
18. Tommy Henry, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 74 in 2019
Henry is a great competitor with good feel to pitch, but couldn’t maintain his stuff deep enough into games last year, so right-handed batters teed off on him, hitting 23 homers in 115 2/3 innings. He crushed lefties and may be better suited to swing duty where he doesn’t have to turn over a lineup twice.
19. Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
De Los Santos won’t turn 19 until late June, but has already shown big power at two levels and enough contact ability to think it might hold up, although he’s probably a first baseman in the long run and the offensive bar for that position is quite high.
20. Dom Canzone, OF
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 242 in 2019
Advertisement
Canzone is a corner outfielder without any plus tools but has good feel for the barrel, putting the ball in play at above-average rates up through Double A and holding his own against lefties, as well as righties. He might be a 55 runner but his best defensive homes are left and right field. He’d be a great candidate for Team Italy in the next World Baseball Classic.
Others of note
Jake McCarthy debuted last year after years of injuries and a swing adjustment, showing plus speed and the ability to whack a fastball. He’s still just 24 this year and should be able to serve as an extra outfielder in the majors right now. … Both Connor Grammes and Justin Martinez required Tommy John surgery this year. Grammes might have the best pure stuff of any starter in the system but has little history of throwing strikes, while Martinez has huge velocity as well. … Outfielder Jeferson Espinal struggled in his first taste of full-season ball, so the Diamondbacks sent him back to the Arizona Complex League to reset his swing, after which he had more success in Low A but still struck out a third of the time … Catcher Adrian del Castillo was the team’s second-round pick off a very disappointing spring at the University of Miami. He has a long way to go as a receiver and might need some swing work to get to power. He did deal with a minor knee injury that probably impacted his power numbers, too.
2022 impact
Thomas should debut this year, and Beer would probably be the DH if the National League adopts it. I wouldn’t be shocked to see any of the big three starters debut in the majors this summer, with Nelson probably the most likely. McCarthy could easily be their fourth outfielder.
The fallen
Matt Tabor signed for $1 million in the third round in 2017 out of a Massachusetts high school, but his stuff has backed up since then and he’s always had a tough delivery. He reached Triple A in 2021 for the first time and posted an 11.13 ERA, allowing 14 homers in 32 innings while pitching for high-altitude Reno.
Sleeper
Walston might be a little obvious, but he has the biggest upside of anyone outside of their current top 100 guys. If you think that’s too easy a pick, their sleeper-sleeper guy would be Elbis.
(Photo of Jordan Lawlar: Norm Hall / Getty Images)
