The Cubs had just one top 100 prospect, but the system is actually in its best shape since the 2016 team’s core was racing up through the minors, with a bunch of high-upside bats in the lowest levels from their recent binge of trades and the most recent draft class.
To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
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1. Brennen Davis, OF (Top 100 ranking: No. 28)
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 62 in 2018
Davis is an outstanding athlete who starred in baseball and basketball in high school, and this year some of that projection he had as an amateur showed up in games, as he hit 19 homers in total across three levels, finishing in Triple A as a 21-year-old. Davis has gotten quite a bit stronger since the pandemic wiped out the 2020 season, and now he’s driving the ball to all fields, with a balanced swing that generates that power from his upper and lower halves. He still runs well, although he’s lost some speed as he’s filled out, and there’s a greater chance that he’ll end up in right field than there was a year ago, although he could probably be an average defender in center for a team without an elite glove out there. The power/OBP skill is what really sells Davis, who looks like he’ll be a very different player than anyone who saw him as a skinny 18-year-old might have guessed, with 30-homer upside and a chance to stay in the middle of the field.
2. Owen Caissie, OF
Age: 19 | 6-4 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 45 in 2020
Caissie came over in the Yu Darvish trade last winter, never playing a game for the team that drafted him (San Diego), then destroyed extended spring training and the Arizona Complex League. Even with concerns about his glove — he runs and throws well enough to play right field, but so far he’s been bad out there — his bat looks like it will play at any position, with a chance for 50 hit and 60 or even 70 power. He hits mistakes a long way and shows good strike zone awareness, even with some swing and miss, which is more aggressiveness than failure to recognize pitches or balls and strikes.
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 184 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 19 in 2020
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Acquired at the deadline for Javier Báez, Crow-Armstrong played just six games in 2021 before he hurt his non-throwing shoulder and underwent surgery that ended his season. He was the Mets’ first-round pick in 2020, a potential leadoff hitter with feel to hit, a good eye at the plate, and plus defense in center, just lacking power among the main tools. The lost time hurts, but he was already an advanced hitter for his age, so perhaps it’ll matter a bit less in his case.
4. Jordan Wicks, LHP
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 21 in 2021
The Cubs’ first-rounder in 2021, Wicks is a changeup lefty who has more power than the typical finesse college left-hander does, and the Cubs have already worked to help him tighten up his curveball. His fastball could end up his least valuable pitch in time, as it’s up to 95 but can play true, but between his feel for manipulating the baseball and some natural deception, there are mid-rotation starter ingredients here. He might never be much better than league-average but could pitch a very long time, even after his fastball starts to taper off.
5. Cristian Hernandez, SS
Age: 18 | 6-2 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
The Cubs signed Hernandez for $3 million last offseason, and he debuted in the DSL last summer, hitting .285/.398/.424 as a 17-year-old. He did show some tendency to try to pull the ball for power there, but his normal swing uses the middle of the field well, and he’ll grow into more than enough power without resorting to a dead-pull approach. He’s going to be on the bigger side for shortstop, but not so much so that he has to move off the position, with the arm and footwork to be able to stay there. We’ll see how the bat plays against better competition in the ACL this year but he does offer more upside than anyone in the system.
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6. Kevin Alcantara, OF
Age: 19 | 6-6 | 188 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Acquired in the Anthony Rizzo trade last summer, Alcantara is a toolsy projection guy who has already shown tremendous growth since his pro debut at 16 in 2019. He gained significant muscle during 2020 and the added strength helped improve his bat control, so his swing became much more consistent and powerful, even with more room for him to continue to fill out his 6-6 frame. There’s a chance for plus hit, plus power, in a center field package here, depending on how his body develops. The early signs are very positive across the board.
7. James Triantos, SS/2B
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 56 in 2021
The Cubs’ second-round pick in 2021, Triantos reclassified from the 2022 draft class to graduate early, and had a strong spring where he barely struck out — reports have him striking out once in the whole season, although that’s unconfirmed — without showing big power potential. In pro ball, though, he showed more hard contact than expected, with great bat speed to get to it without requiring much projection. He’s a shortstop now, far more likely to move to second in the future, but if you buy this hit tool, he should be a strong regular at worst.
8. Reggie Preciado, SS
Age: 19 | 6-4 | 185 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Preciado was also part of the Darvish deal, along with Owen Caissie, and like Caissie made his pro debut as a Cub. He’s long and lean with the potential for above-average to plus power down the road but has less probability with his hit tool than the Caissie/Alcantara/Triantos group. He’s also more likely to move to third base as he fills out, maybe 60/40 or 70/30 odds, with the tradeoff that more strength would probably equal more power.
9. Caleb Kilian, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-4 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 236 in 2019
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I couldn’t have seen Kilian any worse, as I was at his AFL appearance where he didn’t retire a batter and gave up seven runs — he didn’t have his usual stuff and hitters teed off. He’s normally up to 98 with a 55/60 changeup and a new curveball that has a chance to add another above-average weapon, while doing so with plus control and great feel for moving the ball around the zone, with just 13 walks in 100 regular-season innings. He’s probably a solid No. 4 starter but the way he’s just come into more stuff, from better velocity to the new breaking ball, gives some small reason to think he could be more.
10. Miguel Amaya, C
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Amaya is going to miss most of the 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and could end up with just 106 PA between 2020-22 if he’s out for the whole year. He has plus power but hasn’t hit that well since 2018, and his best attribute behind the plate was his arm, so his prospect status is very much up in the air.
11. Yohendrick Pinango, OF
Age: 20 | 5-11 | 170 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Pinango’s year was better than it might look at first glance; Myrtle Beach is a bad place to hit, especially for power, and Pinango was much better on the road, hitting .290/.350/.421 in away games. He’s able to put the bat on the ball so easily that he can swing at suboptimal pitches; he needs to learn to leverage the count more to get pitches he can drive out to the gaps, with solid-average power coming in the future. He’s a corner outfielder, so he has to hit. Just don’t take his 2021 season to be anything but a positive sign for a 19-year-old who had only played in the complex league.
12. Kevin Made, SS
Age: 19 | 5-10 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Made went to Low-A Myrtle Beach at age 18, and swung at just about everything he saw, with just six walks in 243 PA. He has great hand-eye coordination and still managed to put the ball in play a good amount, while playing capable defense at short and third (since he split time with 2019 first-rounder Ed Howard). It’s going to mostly come down to approach but he might get to average power despite his 5-10 frame.
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13. DJ Herz, LHP
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 252 in 2019
Herz, who should be part of a hip-hop duo with MC Hizz, is a funky lefty with a plus changeup and average slider, and if he can get to even solid-average control he can be a fourth starter. The lack of a plus breaking ball is less of an issue for him because lefties just don’t see the ball out of his hand.
14. Brailyn Marquez, LHP
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Marquez was a top 100 prospect before the year, then missed the entire season with a sore shoulder, not even throwing on back fields in Arizona. He’d been up to 101-102 with a plus slider, but we have to see how his stuff returns and what kind of workload he can handle.
15. Kohl Franklin, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 188 in 2018
Franklin missed the entire 2021 season with an oblique strain, which is a new one to me, but prior to that was probably the Cubs’ most interesting pitching prospect, a three-pitch guy with a good delivery and chance for average or better command. We just have to see him pitch.
16. Ed Howard, SS
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 16 in 2020
Howard has shown himself to be a potentially elite defender at short, but his pro debut, which came at Low-A Myrtle Beach, produced just a .225/.277/.315 line, as he was overmatched by full-season pitching. He’s an Illinois high school kid with no pro experience prior to 2021 and who hadn’t faced much high-caliber pitching as an amateur, so he might just require more time and repetitions to catch up to other hitters his age.
17. Ryan Jensen, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 27 in 2019
The Cubs’ first-round pick in 2019 now seems destined for the bullpen — every scout I asked had him as a future reliever. He can hold plus-plus velocity late into games and now has a solid-average or better curveball, but he needs a third pitch for lefties and minor-league hitters have been able to catch up to his heat.
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18. Christian Franklin, OF
Age: 22 | 5-11 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 123 in 2021
Franklin is a plus defender in center, maybe a 70 out there, with plus power, but punched out 78 times in the SEC last spring because he struggled with breaking ball recognition and some mechanical issues that had him swinging uphill. He has electric bat speed, and at least has some ball/strike recognition; add in his athleticism and the Cubs at least have a lot to work with here as they try to get him to stay level and get his weight over his front side sooner. I think he’s a boom-or-bust guy — either he becomes an above-average regular in center, hitting 20-25 homers with great defense, or he stalls out in Double or Triple A.
19. Pablo Aliendo, C
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Aliendo is a soft-handed catcher with a plus arm who showed enough bat-handling skills that the Cubs pushed him to pitcher-friendly Myrtle Beach last year even though he hadn’t played above the DSL before the pandemic hit. He’s a ways off but has everyday catcher upside if the hit/power tools progress to average.
20. Nelson Velazquez, OF
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 165 in 2017
Velazquez was one of the hitting stars of the Arizona Fall League after some mechanical adjustments helped him keep his swing on plane longer, but it’s still power over hit and he’s probably going to whiff too much to be a regular in a corner, with power and enough defense in right field to be a solid bench piece.
Others of note
Anderson Espinoza came over as the return for Jake Marisnick, and he was back in the upper 90s with a plus changeup after his second Tommy John surgery, with a decent curveball. The Cubs may try to start him but it’s going to be a while as they build his arm back up after he missed four calendar years, throwing 58 innings in his return in 2021 … Alex Canario, who came with Kilian in the Kris Bryant trade, is a toolsy outfielder with power and speed, but he swings at everything and High-A pitchers already started to exploit his impatience and lack of recognition last year … What I said about Canario goes double for Chris Morel, who is in search of a position and was similarly hacktacular in Double-A … Alfonso Rivas could make the Cubs this year as a platoon player or lefty bat off the bench, with 55 power and strong OBP skills against righties, but he’s limited to first base or left field … Chris Clarke had a hip impingement and labrum injury that seems to have affected his delivery, as he came back with reduced stuff and command; he was miscast as a reliever at USC before the Cubs drafted him in 2019, and I’d like to see what his stuff looks like after an offseason of rest … Right-hander Alex Vizcaino came along with Alcantara in the Rizzo trade; he’s been up to 99 with a plus-plus changeup but missed most of 2021 with arm soreness and was ineffective when he did pitch … Drew Gray was the Cubs’ third-rounder in 2021 out of IMG Academy, where he was a two-way player. He threw just four innings after signing but was 93-94 with an average changeup and plus curveball when he pitched. It’s quite possible that he’ll see a big uptick in stuff now that he’s not trying to be a position player at the same time … Right-hander Ben Leeper signed during the pandemic as a non-drafted free agent. He went straight to Double A for his pro debut, then moved to Triple A after just 10 appearances, and on the year he struck out 39 percent of batters he faced. He’s up to 98 with an above-average to plus slider, and at least so far he hasn’t shown a big platoon split. He’s already had two Tommy John surgeries at age 24, and he’s reliever only, but this stuff is legit, and how can you not root for him?
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2022 impact
I think it’s all small pieces for this year — Rivas should see big-league time, Leeper should debut, maybe Jensen comes up to the bullpen, or we see Marquez do the same if he’s healthy and the team limits his innings. Of guys in their top 10, Killian is the most likely to see the majors at some point this year.
The fallen
The Cubs gave Venezuelan catcher Ronnier Quintero $2.9 million in 2019, but he looked awful on both sides of the ball last year, to the point where one scout told me he didn’t think Quintero would get out of A-ball. To be fair, Quintero will be 19 this year and had no pro experience prior to 2021. The early returns are not good, though.
Sleeper
I define sleepers as guys who weren’t top 100 consideration this year, but could end up on the top 100 next year, and probably in the middle rather than at the very back of the list. That’s Alcantara for me, but he’s in a group of five to six guys who could do that in this system.
(Photo of Brennen Davis: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
