Rangers’ top 20 prospects for 2022: Keith Law ranks Texas’ farm system

AMARILLO, TEXAS - JULY 25: Infielder Josh Jung #18 of the Frisco RoughRiders bats during the game against the Amarillo Sod Poodles at HODGETOWN Stadium on July 25, 2021 in Amarillo, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
By Keith Law
Feb 11, 2022

The Rangers restocked their system last year with a couple of big salary dumps and a solid draft class, but they’ve also had a couple of hits on the trade front, with some less-heralded prospects turning into more legitimate prospects after the Rangers got their hands on them.

To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.

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1. Jack Leiter, RHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 26)

Age: 22 | 6-1 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 2 in 2021

The top pitcher in the 2021 draft class, Leiter went second overall to the Rangers, coming off a spring with some incredible highs (a no-hitter that was part of a 20-inning streak where he gave up zero hits) and lows (a three-week stretch where he gave up five homers in two starts, then had to miss an outing). The son of longtime big leaguer Al Leiter and former high school teammate of Anthony Volpe, Leiter is a command right-hander with a fastball that misses bats even at average velocity, although he can top out at 95-96 mph. At Vanderbilt, he got a ton of swings-and-misses on his slider, although his curveball looks like it’ll be the better pitch. He has plus control and should end up with at least above-average command, thanks to a delivery he repeats with ease. Leiter is maybe 6-1 and doesn’t offer a lot of projection, so the odds of him adding much velocity are not high (but it’s still possible). He looks more like a solid No. 2 starter at his peak — one who gets it done without a clear plus pitch because he throws everything for strikes and can miss enough bats with his fastball.

2. Josh Jung, 3B (Top 100 ranking: No. 32)

Age: 24 | 6-2 | 214 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 8 in 2019

Jung mashed his way through Triple A last year, hitting .326/.398/.592 at the top two levels of the minors, even though it was his first full pro season since the Rangers made him the eighth overall pick in 2019. Jung hurt his foot in spring training and had a late start, but answered the one remaining question about his bat by hitting 19 homers and 22 doubles between two stops in just 78 games. The Rangers left Jung at third base after trying him at some other spots in 2020 at their alternate site, and he’s a solid-average defender there, although his bat is going to carry the day. He hits the ball hard, consistently, and makes contact at an above-average rate. A .300/.360/.520 season is well within reach once he’s established himself in the majors.

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3. Cole Winn, RHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 42)

Age: 22| 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 15 in 2018

Winn was the Rangers’ first-round pick in 2018, didn’t pitch that summer due to his workload in the spring, and then threw 65 innings in Low A in 2019, which constituted his entire pro career prior to 2021. Texas still promoted him two levels to Double-A Frisco this past year, making his across-the-board improvement even more impressive — he cut his walk rate by a third, boosted his strikeout rate by 50 percent, then earned two late-season starts in Triple A. Winn is a four-pitch guy who works 93-95 with a plus changeup that he’ll work to both sides of the plate. Both breaking pitches have improved since we last saw him in 2019, with the curveball ahead of the slider. He was more of a command guy (rather than a big stuff guy) in high school, and now he’s regained that touch and feel while working with a better repertoire. It all looks like a No. 2 starter upside, someone who’s consistently better than league-average for a long time, especially since Winn has such a good feel for pitching for his age.

4. Dustin Harris, 1B/3B (Top 100 ranking: No. 92)

Age: 22 | 6-2 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 344 in 2019

Harris was Oakland’s 11th-round pick in 2019 out of St. Petersburg College, then went to Texas along with outfielder Marcus Smith in a trade for Mike Minor in August of 2020. So I think it’s fair to say nobody quite anticipated the year he had in 2021, where he hit .301/.389/.483 in Low A, moved up to High-A Hickory at the start of August, and hit .372/.425/.648 at the higher level. Harris has a simple, strong, direct swing that produces a lot of hard contact (obviously), having made several subtle adjustments to his approach that unlocked his power — he had two homers through July 5, then hit 18 more the rest of the way. He’s played first and third, neither of them very well, and may try some left field next year, but this kind of bat should play anywhere on the field.

5. Owen White, RHP (Just missed)

Age: 22 | 6-3 | 199 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 55 in 2018

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The Rangers signed White to an over-slot deal in the second round in 2018, only to have him need Tommy John surgery that kept him out through 2019. Then the pandemic happened, and he finally made his pro debut in May of last year … and broke a bone in his hand. When he got healthy, though, he rolled: In his last three starts in Low A, he struck out 33 batters and walked 2 in 18 2/3 innings. He got stronger during all that time away from the mound and now sits 93-96 mph with an above-average changeup and slider along with a curveball, his least consistent pitch for now. His delivery works and he pitches in attack mode, going after hitters with the fastball so he can set up his other weapons. He has just 35 innings of pro experience, plus another 28 innings in the Arizona Fall League, so we have no idea how his newfound stuff or his command will hold up over a full season.

6. Josh Smith, SS

Age: 24 | 5-10| 172 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 67 in 2019

Smith came over in the Joey Gallo trade along with Ezequiel Duran. He has more upside than Duran because he can really play shortstop and shows the potential for above-average offense for the position. He’s a plus runner who makes enough hard contact that he could hit 10-15 homers a year with a slew of doubles and 20+ steals. The Yankees had tried to boost his launch angle to get him more home run power, but that might cost him some contact, which isn’t the ideal tradeoff for someone of his size and skill set. The Rangers may not need him right now, but he’s going to be able to be someone’s regular at short by 2023.

7. Justin Foscue, 2B

Age: 23 | 6-0 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 14 in 2020

The Rangers’ first-round pick from 2020 had a weird, weird year in the minors. He played 13 games in High A in May where he didn’t hit, then got hurt, missed June, returned to High A in mid-July, and hit 12 homers in 20 games there, earning a promotion to Double A … where he didn’t hit, recording a .247/.317/.387 line for Frisco in the season’s final month. Foscue has power, of course, and when he makes contact it’s often hard, but his swing is all power over hit and he is extremely vulnerable to fastballs up. He’s a mediocre defender at second and may end up in left field. His bat has 30-homer potential if he can hit enough to get to it, but pitchers are going to exploit his weaknesses until he makes some swing and approach adjustments.

8. Ezequiel Duran, 2B

Age: 23 | 5-11 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Duran also came over with Smith in the Gallo trade, and of course is now blocked eight ways to Sunday in the Rangers’ system. He’s a little guy who hits the ball hard, with way more power than you’d expect from someone who is maybe 5-10. He swings and plays big, so there’s more swing-and-miss than you’d like, enough that it could prevent him from becoming a regular. But with his power, 55 speed, and the ability to play second well or shortstop in a pinch, he has a solid utility floor with some ceiling beyond that.

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9. Aaron Zavala, OF

Age: 22 | 6-0 | 193 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 38 in 2021

The Rangers’ second-round pick in 2021, Zavala mashed at Oregon in the spring, hitting .392/.526/.628 with 50 walks and 31 strikeouts, and then posted a .419 OBP in 22 games in pro ball, although it was mostly against lesser competition. The Rangers have helped get him more upright at the plate so he can make more consistent hard contact; he already has that strong foundation of discipline and putting the ball in play, with low chase rates. He’s a big guy but moves well in the outfield and should be fine in a corner. He projects as a solid-average regular now but could become something more if the Rangers get him to more power.

10. Luisangel Jose Acuña, SS

Age: 20 | 5-10 | 181 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Ronald’s younger brother may be small, but has some similar tools, with plus speed, hard contact, and agility in the field. Luisangel, who also goes by Jose, worked very hard on his shortstop defense to the point where he’s gone from “maybe stays at short” to “very likely to stay there,” becoming more consistent on routine plays and more focused within games. He’s a swing-first guy at the plate, going after stuff early in the count, but his plate coverage is surprising for a 5-8 hitter and he has average power. He’ll go to High A this year, so he’s not banging on the door of the majors, but he adds to the Rangers’ shortstop surfeit.

11. Ricky Vanasco, RHP

Age: 23 | 6-3 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 464 in 2017

Vanasco was the talk of the Rangers’ camp in 2020 when he blew out his elbow that fall, missing all of 2021, but he’s likely to return for the start of spring training this year. He did throw a few innings in scrimmages against college teams last fall, and his stuff was all the way back — touching the upper 90s again with multiple pluses in his arsenal — but his command has never been a strength and may need more time to return. He’s been hurt a ton in pro ball but shows premium stuff, which could point to the top of a rotation or, more likely, an elite high-leverage reliever.

12. Tekoah Roby, RHP

Age: 20 | 6-1 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 86 in 2020

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Roby threw 22 innings and was 91-96 with two at least average secondary pitches but his elbow barked and the Rangers shut him down with a UCL sprain. He returned to throw a little in October and has so far avoided surgery, although that’s always a possibility once there are the beginnings of a tear. He has the potential for three above-average pitches with his changeup and slider, and he’s very athletic with a delivery that helps him throw a ton of strikes. Now we just have to see if he can stay healthy as a starter this year.

13. Sam Huff, C

Age: 24 | 6-5 | 240 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 219 in 2016

Huff looks like a solid backup catcher, with 70 power and a 40 hit tool, held back by poor ball/strike recognition. He probably would have played in the majors enough to graduate last year had he been healthy, but he had a hamstring injury and then minor knee surgery that limited him to 61 games, none in the big leagues. He’s a fringy defender but decent enough to play there as long as he’s hitting bombs.

14. Davis Wendzel, 3B

Age: 25 | 6-1 | 206 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 41 in 2019

Wendzel broke his hamate bone in late May, missing about six weeks, but that injury tends to sap power for months after recovery and he didn’t show much power in his return. He’s a solid hitter with OBP skills and at least doubles power, while he plays third base well enough that the Rangers played him more games at short last year than at the hot corner. Between the hamate fracture and a thumb injury in 2019, when the Rangers drafted him in the comp round, he hasn’t had many pro at-bats; he’ll play at 25 this year and has not hit 300 plate appearances since he signed. His chance to be a regular isn’t gone, but it’s dimming.

15. Cody Bradford, LHP

Age: 24 | 6-4 | 197 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 175 in 2019

Bradford is a command lefty who had no trouble in High A or Double A last year, working with mostly average stuff that plays up because his delivery is deceptive and he has great feel to pitch, including locating everything well. He’s 6-4 and stays tall over the rubber, coming from a high slot and hiding the ball until late in the delivery, so it’s a tough look combined with less time for hitters to see the ball. He might not have a plus pitch, with his changeup his best offering (leading to a reverse platoon split in 2021), but this command/feel/deception combination gives him a real chance to be a back-end starter.

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16. Evan Carter, OF

Age: 19 | 6-4 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 50 in 2020

Carter’s season ended after just 32 games due to a stress fracture in his lower back; before that, he caught some eyes with his patience, drawing 34 walks in that short time, with 28 strikeouts. He also showed plus speed with a chance to stay in center field, although his contact quality wasn’t great. He has 25/25 power/speed potential and he’s very athletic, although his bat still lags behind the rest of the tool package.

17. Maximo Acosta, SS

Age: 19 | 6-1 | 187 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right

Acosta played just 17 games in his pro debut due to an ankle injury and then surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome, and didn’t do anything in those games to change the scouting report. He has a short swing with excellent plate coverage, projecting to enough strength for power but with a more line-drive, contact-oriented swing. He’s a shortstop for now who could end up at second base if he bulks up too much. Signed for $1.65 million back in 2019 out of Venezuela, he’ll play at 19 this year and job No. 1 is to stay on the field.

18. Mitch Bratt, LHP

Age: 18 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 134 in 2021

Bratt was the Rangers’ 5th-round pick in 2021 out of the same Georgia high school that produced Guardians prospect Daniel Espino, although Bratt was originally born in Canada. He’s a projectable kid whose velocity has already started to tick up in pro ball to the low 90s, while he has shape to his curveball but has to throw it with more power and conviction. His arm action can be long, making it hard for him to repeat it for future command, although if his stuff continues to trend upward he could be a starter, even with command that’s a touch below average.

19. A.J. Alexy, RHP

Age: 24 | 6-4 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 341 in 2016

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Right-hander Alexy debuted in the majors in 2021 but struggled with control, sitting 93-94 as a starter with four pitches, including a future-plus curveball, but below-average command of everything. He’s got effort to the delivery, so I’m not sold on the durability either. He could be upper 90s in relief and post huge strikeout rates in that role if he can’t start.

20. Zak Kent, RHP

Age: 24 | 6-3 | 208 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 265 in 2019

Kent has a wipeout slider that he throws a lot, which might move him from starting to some kind of swing or multi-inning role, but he throws enough strikes to at least try the former for a little longer. He was very homer-prone in Double A, but 4 of the 9 homers he allowed were in Amarillo, which can be very hitter-friendly when the wind blows out, so I don’t want to read too much into it. He still punched out 31 percent of batters at the higher level and 32 percent at High A before that, and I hope they give the former 9th-rounder out of VMI one more chance to start.


Others of note

Outfielder Marcus Smith missed almost the entire year with recurring hamstring issues, getting just 50 plate appearances and striking out in 23 of them. He remains an intriguing bat with feel to hit and emerging power, as he’s gotten more physical since we last saw him and is hitting the ball harder. … Infielder Cam Cauley is undersized and plays hard, but he’s not a lock to stay at short and despite some looseness in his swing, he doesn’t show great bat control, struggling with contact in his pro debut as well … Right-hander Dane Acker was dominant in two starts, working at 96-98 with big spin on his breaking ball before he blew out his elbow and underwent season-ending surgery in late May … Centerfielder Daniel Mateo is a future plus defender who’s still very thin but projectable, with some feel to hit but not enough strength to make it count yet … Lefty Cole Ragans returned from two Tommy John surgeries that cost him 2018-20 (not helped by the pandemic) to pitch well in High A and not so well in Double A, still lacking the command he was supposed to have in high school. His stuff was mostly back, as he’d sit low 90s with a solid-average changeup and fringy curveball, but he needs to throw more and better-quality strikes, and could use a better breaking ball for lefties … Outfielder Yeison Morrobel, who signed last January for $1.8 million, had a solid debut in the DSL where he controlled the zone and didn’t punch out. He’s 17 and projectable so we’ll see if he can convert his feel to hit into something more.

2022 impact

Jung is ready to take over at third base. Alexy could start the year in the rotation or the bullpen, depending on his health. Winn isn’t that far behind him. Huff could be their backup catcher.

The fallen

Bubba Thompson, the team’s first-round pick in 2017, finally came into some power last year in Double-A Frisco, but his pitch recognition remains a huge problem, and he posted a .325 OBP at that level with a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 4:1. The Rangers chose not to add him to the 40-man this winter, so he’s Rule-5 eligible; he has the power/speed combo that might tempt someone to try to stash him, but this approach will get him buried in the majors.

Sleeper

Scouts do like Acuña in spite of his fun-sized build, and another year of hard contact against better pitching would boost everyone’s confidence in his future.

(Photo of Josh Jung: John E. Moore III / Getty Images)

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Keith Law

Keith Law is a senior baseball writer for The Athletic. He has covered the sport since 2006 and prior to that was a special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays. He's the author of "Smart Baseball" (2017) and "The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves" (2020), both from William Morrow. Follow Keith on Twitter @keithlaw