It’s going to be a long way back for the Phillies, who just did not get the value they needed out of their drafts in the mid-2010s, and had a number of player development failures — players who regressed once they were in the system due to overpromotions or attempts to change them that didn’t pan out. It’s a new day in Philly, though, with changes at the top that herald a new approach to talent development, and several of those prospects are still young enough to turn things around.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Bryson Stott, SS (Top 100 Ranking: No. 66)
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 14 in 2019
Stott was the Phillies’ first-rounder in 2019 out of UNLV and signed quickly enough to play 48 games that summer, but 2021 was his full-season debut, and it went so well he finished the year in Triple A. Stott hit .299/.390/.486 with solid defense at shortstop, hitting for a higher average with less power than I would have projected, especially since he played the bulk of his season in homer-friendly Reading. He’s cleaned up his swing since he was drafted, syncing up his hands and his hips and shortening his path from when he loads his hands to contact, which might cost him a little power but almost certainly explains his results last year. He held his contact rate steady as he moved up the ladder and had better results on balls in play, even as he faced better pitching. He’s a 55 defender at short who has good range in both directions and enough arm to throw from the hole. I’ve heard some concerns that pitchers in Triple A or the majors might be able to pitch away from his bat path more effectively, but he could lose some of his offensive production and still be an everyday guy. He looks like he might be more of a .280-.290, 15+ homer, strong OBP guy, and that at shortstop is a very valuable player.
2. Mick Abel, RHP (Top 100 Ranking: No. 91)
Age: 20 | 6-5 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 15 in 2020
Abel was the Phillies’ first-round pick in 2020, the first time in a decade they’d taken a high school pitcher in the first round (since Jesse Biddle), and he was clearly the best prep arm in that class, with a big fastball and curveball along with size and a strong delivery. He made his pro debut last year in Low-A Clearwater and saw improvement in his stuff with some trouble with command and control. He’s a four-pitch guy now, working 92-95 mph regularly as a starter, although he’s been up to 97-98 in shorter stints, with the changeup becoming a real weapon for him last year, even ahead of the curve and slider. All of his off-speed pitches show you enough now to project them as future plus pitches, with the changeup already there or very close to it. He has good carry on the fastball and occasionally gets a little cut to it, so it also plays up against left-handed batters. He walked 14 percent of the batters he faced last year, but that was skewed by his last few starts, where he walked 13 men in 14 innings. His season ended after that due to a sore shoulder, although he’s healthy and expected to be ready to go for minor-league spring training. There’s top-of-the-rotation upside here as long as he stays healthy and returns to the kind of command and control he showed as a high school underclassman.
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3. Andrew Painter, RHP
Age: 19 | 6-7 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 13 in 2021
Painter was the Phillies’ first-round pick in 2021, the second year in a row that they took a high school pitcher in the first round – a strategy that, over the history of the draft, has produced worse results than taking any other category of player. Painter has a chance for three above-average or better pitches, working at 93-95 now with a mid-70s curveball and solid-average changeup, with the curveball the better secondary pitch. He didn’t have great feel for the breaking ball early in the spring, which definitely cooled some teams’ interest in him, but it was better later in the spring and in the summer, when he struck out 10 of the 14 right-handed batters he faced in pro ball. He’s 6-foot-7 with a good delivery he should be able to repeat, although he did have some control issues in instructs last fall. He has No. 2 starter ceiling, for sure, just with the same high risk that’s involved with any high school pitcher.
4. Matt Vierling, OF
Age: 25 | 6-3 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 137 in 2018
Vierling hits the ball very hard, and if he could stop hitting it on the ground so often, he might be an everyday player. He’s a plus runner and a solid-average defender in center, while he has more power than his stats might indicate, with just 25 homers across 293 professional games. It’s just the swing — he put the ball on the ground over 50 percent of the time in the minors and in his brief time in the majors last year. It’s one of the least difficult adjustments for a hitter and coaches to make, or at least easier to do than to teach a guy to make harder contact, or to lay off that fastball up that is just so tempting. Even a modest tweak makes him a regular who hits for average with 15 homers and can handle center field.
5. Johan Rojas, OF
Age: 21 | 6-1 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
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Rojas is a plus defender in center with plus speed, maybe a 70 defender in time, while his bat is still a work in progress. He has good hand-eye coordination and can get the bat to the ball, with enough strength for average power, but his swing path puts the ball on the ground way too much, especially to the pull side. He’s going to get stronger as well, so hitting the ball in the air more will do him wonders — he’s a perfect candidate for some black magic (by which I mean launch-angle optimization), which would give him a chance to be an above-average regular.
6. Luis Garcia, SS
Age: 21 | 5-11 | 170 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Garcia was a top 100 prospect after 2018, when he was one of the best players in the Gulf Coast League as a 17-year-old, but the Phillies promoted him all the way to Low A that year even though he wasn’t physically ready for it, and it showed, to the point that he looked defeated by the end of the 2019 summer. He has gotten stronger since then, and repeated Low A last year with better results across the board, from better at-bats to harder contact. He’s a plus defender at short, so the bar for his bat isn’t that high, but I think he has the ceiling of a quality regular – not the star it seemed like he might be, although I suppose that’s not out of the realm of possibility – assuming his contact quality continues to improve, with a high probability that he becomes a very good utility infielder.
7. Logan O’Hoppe, C
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 677 in 2018
O’Hoppe was the team’s 23rd-round pick in 2018 out of a Long Island high school, playing just two years in short-season before the pandemic, and he had an incredible year that started in High A and ended with a week in Triple A. He’s a solid defender, nothing plus but good enough to remain a catcher, with an impressive combination of feel for the zone and hard contact, with 19 doubles and 17 homers in 104 games last year. In the Arizona Fall League, he didn’t look great against better velocity, but I’ve also learned over 15 years that evaluating catchers in that league is especially hard, since they’re usually exhausted by that point. He at least has a real chance to become a regular behind the plate, which is a hell of an outcome for a 23rd-rounder.
8. Hans Crouse, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 180 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 66 in 2017
Crouse came with Ian Kennedy and Kyle Gibson in the trade that sent Spencer Howard to Texas. He’s 93-96 now with a power changeup that has switched places with his slider, which has backed up to more average. He also has a cutter that blends into the slider, and both would probably be more effective if there were more clear separation between them. He throws strikes, but without real command, and his max-effort delivery probably makes that impossible. I love how he goes after guys like they cursed his family, but that same aggressive style, coupled with the delivery, makes him an almost certain reliever.
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9. Simon Muzziotti, OF
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
It was a lost season for Muzziotti, who had a delay in getting a visa to come here from Venezuela and then caught COVID-19 as soon as he arrived, limiting him to just 83 plate appearances in the regular season, although he did get another 107 between the AFL and winter ball. He’s a 70 runner with great instincts and tremendous range in center field, and he has a quick, slashing stroke at the plate that puts the ball in play without huge impact. He doesn’t work the count — it’s like he’s allergic to seeing four pitches in one at-bat — but he can get the bat to the ball just about anywhere it’s pitched. He might never get to more than 10-12 homers, but he could hit for a high average and add a ton of value with his defense and base running, maybe enough to add up to a regular — assuming all the time off hasn’t held him back.
10. Jhailyn Ortiz, OF
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
I don’t think I’m exaggerating to say that Ortiz salvaged his career with a big showing in High A last year, even though he was repeating the level at age 22. He’s always had power, but he got to it more last year, helped in no small part by being in — wait for it — the best shape of his life. He was under 250 pounds for the first time in a while and looks more like a linebacker than a lineman, even playing a very capable center field, which I sure as heck wouldn’t have believed after seeing him several times in 2019. He didn’t hit as well in Double A at the end of the year, so some of this may have been just a function of seeing the same pitching again while he was two years older, but at least now there’s a chance that Ortiz, who got a $4 million bonus the same July that the Blue Jays signed Vlad Guerrero Jr., might turn into a big leaguer.
11. Ethan Wilson, OF
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 49 in 2021
Wilson was the Phillies’ second-round pick in 2021, coming off a year when he was one of the toughest hitters in Division I to strike out, but two years before that, he’d hit 17 homers as a freshman, and if he can combine those two, they’ll have a pretty good player there. He did shorten his swing slightly before 2021, but it wasn’t dramatic enough to explain the drop from 17 homers to 8. He has a very mature approach that should allow him to get to pitches he can drive, so the hope is it’s just a small adjustment to get him back to at least 15-20 homer power with a high OBP, which would play every day in a corner.
12. Erik Miller, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-5 | 240 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 120 in 2019
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Miller missed nearly all of 2021 with shoulder trouble, but did get healthy enough to throw 10 innings late in the AFL. When he’s 100 percent, he has a premium fastball, low to mid-90s with very good ride, along with a plus slider, but needs to develop some sort of changeup. His delivery is good enough for him to start, but shoulder issues can linger and may push him to relief.
13. Francisco Morales, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Morales has a 60 fastball, 70 slider, 30 control, and no real changeup to speak of. He has to go to the bullpen at this point, but the slider might be an 80 there and he’d probably sit 95-97. I just don’t see any way he can start, especially now that he’s 22 and on the roster.
14. Rickardo Perez, C
Age: 18 | 5-10 | 172 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Perez signed for $1 million last January, and the Venezuelan catcher had a solid debut in the Dominican Summer League, with more walks than strikeouts as a 17-year-old. He’s a good catch-and-throw prospect with the right build and frame for the position. He projects to hit but without much power.
15. Cristian Hernandez, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-3 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Signed for just $120,000 in 2017, Hernandez pitched in games in 2021 for the first time since he was in the DSL in 2018, and had a respectable year in Low A. He’s 93-94 at his best with good carry, coming from a low slot, with an average slider and changeup, and enough command now to project him to stay a starter. His velocity tapered off midyear, so the Phillies shut him down for several weeks, after which he was back in his normal range. One red flag to keep in mind: He was supposed to go to Pittsburgh in a trade for Tyler Anderson, but the Pirates didn’t like something in his medicals, so they scotched the deal.
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16. Adonis Medina, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-1 | 187 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Medina has been in the Phillies’ system since 2014, working almost exclusively as a starter, but his stuff has been pretty static since then, and his command and feel for pitching haven’t progressed either. He’s mostly 90-94 as a starter with three secondaries, nothing plus, with the curve or the changeup possibly above-average weapons, and he does get some deception from his delivery, but I don’t see how he can start without a plus pitch or even average command.
17. Cristopher Sánchez, P
Age: 25 | 6-1 | 165 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Sánchez reached the majors last year as a reliever thanks to his ability to miss bats and get a lot of groundballs, with a 93-96 mph sinker on which he relies heavily. He has a changeup and slider, both fringy, and will live and die by the sinker. It’s a traditional 3/4 slot but lefties just do not hit him, while right-handers got to him — and especially drew a lot of walks off him — last year, even thought he’d had a better history of control prior to reaching Triple A. He’s more likely a reliever, especially since the Phillies could use him in that role this year, but there’s maybe a 10 percent chance he could start if he had the time and another year in Triple A. I also saved the best for last: The Phillies traded Curtis Mead, now a top 100 prospect, to get Sánchez from the Rays after the 2019 season.
18. Griff McGarry, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 145 in 2021
McGarry has ridiculous stuff — it’s 97 with an evil slider — but was so erratic that Virginia took him out of the rotation partway through the spring, and he walked 42 men in 43 innings for the Cavaliers on the season. He was a little better in pro ball, striking out 43 percent of batters he faced with a 14 percent walk rate, which still isn’t low enough but is progress, and the Phillies continue to work with him on his delivery to keep him throwing more strikes. If he just stays in relief, he could come very quickly, but there’s also a small chance he could start.
19. Casey Martin, SS
Age: 23 | 5-11 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 87 in 2020
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Martin is a tremendous athlete, a 70 runner with great hands and a plus arm, but he did not hit at all in either level of A ball last year, including just a .224/.316/.356 line in Low A as a 22-year-old SEC product. His pitch recognition is well below where it needs to be, so he’s not hitting for average or any power. His defense keeps him alive as a prospect, and he has to be one of the biggest projects for new farm director Preston Mattingly.
20. Jamari Baylor, SS/2B
Age: 21 | 5-11 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 91 in 2019
Baylor has just 44 games played in pro ball since he signed in 2019 around several injuries, but he showed some positives in 2021 to give the Phillies reasons for optimism. He strikes out way too often, but works the count well, drives the ball to the gaps, and runs well. The Phillies played him at shortstop and second base last year, with shortstop still a real possibility. He has to stay on the field this year to get more reps against live pitching and bring that 35 percent strikeout rate down.
Others of note
Their 2021 fourth-rounder, Micah Ottenbreit, is a standard high school projection right-hander, up to 94 now with a curveball that’s good when he lands it. His arm works and he looks like he’ll fill out to end up in the mid-90s … Outfielder Yhoswar Garcia signed for $2.5 million as an 18-year-old in March 2020, making his debut just briefly in Low-A Clearwater last year before a leg injury ended his season after a month. He’s a plus runner who can go get it in center and has a swing that should allow him to put the ball in play, perhaps a future 50 bat with 45 power … Their third-round pick, Jordan Viars, was something of a surprise, as he was a high schooler who is limited to an outfield corner and doesn’t show any plus tools. He’s going to have to hit above scouts’ expectations to have a path to the majors.
2022 impact
Vierling seems likely to take one of the open outfield jobs unless the Phillies go externally to fill them. If Didi Gregorius doesn’t hit now that his elbow is supposed to be 100 percent, Stott will probably be ready to take over by June, if not sooner.
The fallen
Mickey Moniak has reached the majors, twice, but I don’t think he can be more than a platoon bat and extra outfielder; he can’t play center, he doesn’t hit lefties at all, he doesn’t exactly hit righties that well (with a .298 OBP against them last year), and he doesn’t have enough power to make up for all of it. He will probably get several years in the majors, but that 2016 draft has been a complete disaster for the Phillies: They took Moniak first; Kevin Gowdy, since traded to Texas, second; and Cole Stobbe, whom they released last year after he hit .122/.234/.238 in High A, third.
Sleeper
Rojas has the best chance to both see real progress in 2021 and project as some kind of impact big leaguer.
(Photo of Bryson Stott: Chris Bernacchi / Diamond Images via Getty Images)
