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My 2023 breakout picks were probably my best batch in any year when I’ve offered these predictions, with Cole Ragans, Riley Greene, Leody Taveras, Brayan Bello, and Keibert Ruiz all clearly doing something to break out, and only two non-injured players failing to gain any ground at all in Andrew Vaughn and Edward Cabrera.
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Unfortunately, I’m not feeling as strongly about as many players this time around, so this year’s list is shorter, and I cut a few guys I liked as prospects who haven’t fulfilled expectations but also haven’t given me a concrete reason to push them as breakout names this year (Clarke Schmidt, Sal Frelick, and Bo Naylor). We’re light on pitchers this year, as I don’t see guys who are in that in-between stage, where they’re no longer rookies/prospects but haven’t made the leap I expected (and in whom I haven’t given up hope). I considered Grayson Rodriguez, but he did too well last year to call for a breakout, I think; look for more of what he did after his last callup, but over a full season.
CJ Abrams, SS, Washington Nationals
Abrams did take one step forward last year, gaining 78 points of slugging percentage over his 2022 line, with better contact quality and a better approach. He was in the majors at 21 and clearly wasn’t strong enough to hit big-league pitching at that point, which led to low barrel and hard-hit rates. After putting on a few pounds before the 2023 season, however, he made harder contact across the board, nearly tripling his barrel rate to 5 percent. He fared better against the best velocity, too, going from putting 17.5 percent of fastballs 95 mph or harder in play in 2022 to 21.8 percent last year, with some bad luck/randomness in 2023 that I think points to some immediate improvement in his surface numbers. He also cut down on his chase rate with two strikes, which may be even more important now than gaining strength, as he needs to get on base at a higher clip going forward.
I think his biggest gain this year will be in batting average, as the harder contact will boost his BABIP from a below-average .279 to something over league-average, (which was .279 last year) for a line around .270/.310/.440. As for his defense, well, that’s another story…
Luis Campusano, C, San Diego Padres
The Padres spent about two years trying not to play Campusano in the majors, but when they finally let him play semi-regularly, he did what he had always done in the minors — hit. In 42 MLB games, Campusano posted a .331/.375/.500 line in the second half last year, which is better than I think he’ll do over a full season, but a .280/.330/.450 line is within his reach because he barrels the ball up consistently with above-average contact quality. Maybe if he breaks out, I’ll finally stop calling him “Sil.”
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Jordan Walker, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Walker’s rookie year went better than it might seem on his Baseball-Reference page, where atrocious defense and a tough April helped bring his WAR for the year down below 0. After his return from a demotion to the minor leagues in late April, he hit .277/.346/.455 in 97 games, hitting the ball in the air far more often than he had in April. Walker has plenty of juice and a history of solid pitch recognition, so his struggles last year against offspeed stuff should be just an adjustment period — and he was in the majors with just two years of pro experience out of high school.
Maikel García, 3B, Kansas City Royals
García was never a huge power hitter in the minors, but his rookie season last year was very underwhelming in that department — just four homers and a .358 slugging percentage, which isn’t going to make him an everyday player at a corner. He hits the ball hard, and consistently so, ranking in the 93rd percentile last year for hard-hit rate, but too much of his contact was on the ground. He’s putting the ball in the air more this spring, at least, and it’s such an obvious fix that I am having a hard time imagining any team letting him continue like this, wasting what should be at least 15-20 homer power, if not more. If he really has made a swing adjustment that’s going to last, I think he’ll get into that range, and he’ll become a league-average third baseman.
Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Greene’s 2023 season was a mixed bag, but however you look at it he still hasn’t pitched up to the expectations that made him the No. 2 pick way back in 2017. He throws as hard as any starter in baseball, but his four-seamer is so true that when hitters do make contact against it, they do way too much damage — it was worth 12 runs below average last year per Baseball Savant. This spring, he’s introduced a splitter, and it looks like a real weapon for him — and a way for him to further reduce his reliance on his fastball. Whether this new pitch leads to a breakout, like a seasonal ERA below 4, depends on whether he actually uses it enough and in enough counts to keep hitters from just sitting on his four-seamer again.
Semi-breakout candidate: Cristian Pache, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Pache may never sniff a .300 OBP for a full season, but he made some significant swing and stance changes last year, getting into his legs more to let his plus raw power play, and hit more than he ever had before in the majors — when he wasn’t on the injured list, that is. He’s fighting Johan Rojas for playing time, and neither has stood out this spring, with Rojas also making some changes, in his case shortening up his path to the ball so he can make more contact and use his speed more. Rojas has minor-league options, while Pache doesn’t, so with a few days left in the spring I’m betting the Phillies keep Pache and send Rojas to Triple A. Pache will have to hit to keep the job; I think he can give a .250/.290/.420 line with plus defense if he gets to play regularly. That’s not the star I thought he’d become when he was in A-ball, but it might make him an everyday player.
(Top photos of Abrams, left, and Walker: Mike Stobe and Rich Storry / Getty Images)
