The Cubs had been quiet this offseason, which, coupled with their sell-off at the trade deadline, seemed like more evidence the Ricketts weren’t going to spend and the team wasn’t going to compete this year. That changed in a flash with the signing of Marcus Stroman — my pick for the top free-agent starter on the market this winter — to a surprisingly short, three-year deal with an AAV that could reach $25 million a year if he hits some achievable innings targets.
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Stroman offered the best combination of upside and floor of any starter on the market, as he uses his sinker to get quick outs so he can work deeper into games and maintains his conditioning so he can throw more innings year after year. He’s consistently shown he can make adjustments, adding or altering pitches and improving his body to take advantage of his incredible athleticism. I’d have been very comfortable giving him five years, more so than with Kevin Gausman or Robbie Ray, who were both more productive in 2021 but don’t have Stroman’s track record of production or durability. He gives the Cubs innings and another top-end starter to go with Kyle Hendricks — or to supplant him if Hendricks’ sudden bout of hardhititis wasn’t just a one-year fluke.
With the NL Central not looking much easier in 2022 than it did last season, the Cubs needed a starter if they wanted to contend; the Reds might not be as strong, but the Brewers and Cardinals should be. The Cubs’ rotation coming out of last year was Hendricks, Alec Mills and Adbert Alzolay, but now they’ve added Wade Miley from the Reds (who wanted to shed his salary) and Stroman, adding six to seven wins based on those two pitchers’ 2021 production alone. Alzolay may have to move to the bullpen because of his complete inability to get left-handed batters out — they hit .269/.333/.590 off him with 20 homers in 249 plate appearances last season. The Cubs could keep Justin Steele in the fifth spot or, even better, sign another free agent from the second tier to slot between the top three and Mills, who’d be a perfect No. 5 but gives up too much hard contact to be more than that. Chicago had the second worst run prevention in the NL last year, ahead of only the Diamondbacks, and the additions of Miley and Stroman should give them 350 or so innings and shave 50-60 runs allowed off their total.
The Cubs had an above-average offense last year, but that includes several players they traded, none of whom seems likely to return this season. That also included fluky performances from Patrick Wisdom (who had a 41 percent strikeout rate in 29 games) and Frank Schwindel (a 29-year-old with a .348 BABIP who’d never hit like this anywhere in the minors). They might not have an average regular anywhere on the field in 2022. They can’t rebuild the offense on the fly, but there are plenty of free-agent bats left who would make this team better in a hurry, starting with the best remaining free agent, Carlos Correa, who would fill the team’s need at shortstop and give the offense a huge boost. Michael Conforto would give the Cubs a needed infusion of on-base skills, although he’d cost a draft pick. A reunion with Jorge Soler wouldn’t be the worst idea, either. The Cubs have options, but they’ll have to spend to do it. These two pitching moves push them toward .500; adding two more bats would make them competitive again.
This concludes the high-end starting pitching portion of our winter program; the top five free-agent starters from my rankings have all signed, as have six of the next eight. Carlos Rodón is the best remaining free-agent starter and should be in high demand, as far more teams need a starter than there is supply. The Cubs could use another starter; so could the Dodgers. The Yankees should have been in the market for one of these guys, and for one of the shortstops, too, but have been quiet, as have the Red Sox — although Boston did sign Rich Hill for the seventh time (no, really), which is a low-key move but a good one, just not enough. With few starters available in trade, however, there should be a lot more competition once the market reopens with the new collective bargaining agreement.
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As for Stroman, the deal puts him back out in free agency after the 2024 season, when he will be entering his age-34 season, but given his durability and the way he works to stay in peak condition, he should be able to command another multiyear deal. This could be a reflection of the market not offering him longer deals, but it is also a reflection of his willingness to bet on his durability and that he could get three or more years at that point without a CBA negotiation in the way. Either way, the Cubs got a great pitcher on a three-year contract, and that is always a win for the team.
(Photo: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
