The Twins’ system looks like one in transition, turning over some of the top talent so what remains is mostly talent on the come. They have a huge pool of players, starting with the top guy, who should be better in 2022 than they were last year, whether due to health, experience or changes made with the help of player development.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
Note: Ages as of July 1, 2022.
1. Austin Martin, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 25)
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 5 in 2020
Martin’s pro debut had several unexpected twists, from a shift in his swing and approach that favored soft contact to a hand injury suffered on a slide to a trade from Toronto to Minnesota at the deadline. It would be easy to blame the power loss on the hand issue, but Martin’s swing had been heading this way already. He’s had a tendency to shrink himself by crouching and striding toward the plate, which improved his plate coverage but robbed him of his ability to drive the ball. When he’s more upright, he has gap-to-gap power, more 40-plus doubles and 15-plus homers than big home run power, with an elite batting eye that helped him to a .414 OBP last year in Double A, although some of that was his 24 times hit by pitches as well. In the field, he’s athletic enough to play almost anywhere, certainly to be a plus defender at third base, but he’s had throwing issues since the start of his junior year and at this point is probably going to end up in centerfield or at second base. He’s a plus runner with bat speed and quick-twitch to him that should make the Twins’ player development people giddy, and now he gets a full offseason to work on getting back to driving the ball. He’s lost some of his luster, but not his ability. There’s still a .300 AVG/.400 OBP guy in here, with the ability to play somewhere up the middle and add value on defense, too.
2. Jordan Balazovic, RHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 43)
Age: 23 | 6-5 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 153 in 2016
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Balazovic hurt his back in spring training, which kept him off the mound until June, but returned throwing harder than he had been before this spring and had a solid year in Double A that also showed he still has development ahead of him. The Canadian right-hander, taken by the Twins in the fifth round in 2016, is now sitting just under 95 mph, bumping 97, with an above-average slider and changeup. He’s developed that changeup more by moving to a more split-like grip, resulting in greater tumble on the pitch and giving him a better weapon against left-handed batters; it might also work against righties who try to sit on his fastball. He’s a good athlete who repeats his delivery well, getting some deception from the way he hides the ball, and has shown the ability to work to both sides of the plate already. He’s 6-5 and built like a workhorse starter, with the pitches to be a mid-rotation guy or better, just needing about another half-grade of command to get there.
3. Jose Miranda, 3B (Top 100 ranking: No. 96)
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 73 in 2016
Miranda showed signs of his 2021 breakout in instructs the year before, and in 16 games in the Puerto Rican Winter League that offseason, but what he ended up doing was beyond anyone’s expectations: He hit .344/.401/.572 between Double A and Triple A, despite no history of success anywhere above Low A before this past year. Miranda has a clean, simple swing that has always produced a ton of contact, but hadn’t had much to show for it as the contact quality wasn’t there. Last year, thanks to strength gains he’d made in the intervening year and a half, he hit the ball harder, consistently, with 32 doubles and 30 homers, tying him for seventh among all minor leaguers in extra-base hits last year. The Twins have tried him at several positions, including second, first, and left, but so far he’s looked best at third base, where he’s still only fringe-average and may not get better given how much he’s filled out. Even if he’s giving five runs back on defense, he’ll still be a solid regular with this bat, and perhaps a move to left or first allows him to play average defense somewhere.
4. Royce Lewis, SS
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 1 in 2017
Lewis, the first-overall pick in the 2017 draft, has had a disastrous couple of years, from huge swing changes he made on his own that hurt his performance in 2019 to the pandemic costing him 2020 to a torn ACL that wiped out 2021 before he ever got on the field. He’s entering his age-23 season and hasn’t posted a .300 OBP anywhere above Low A, while his defensive position remains an open question. Lewis is also an incredible athlete, a plus-plus runner with quick-twitch actions who should be able to adjust to whatever swing help the Twins offer him — and he needs a lot, including eliminating the absurd leg kick that messed with his timing in 2019. He’s also lost crucial reps in the field and at the plate; he’s always been better suited to center than shortstop, where he was below-average the last time we saw him, and the Twins did move him around a bunch in the AFL in 2019 to get him into more games and see him in other spots. We’ll see how the speed returns after the ACL tear and surgery, but even if it’s intact, he still has to show better patience and timing at the plate, and find a long-term position.
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5. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-3 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 48 in 2018
Acquired from Toronto with Martin in the José Berríos trade, Woods Richardson saw his stuff back up early in 2021, which may be part of why Toronto was willing to part with him in a trade. He’ll work in the low 90s with an above-average changeup, but his arm is consistently late relative to his lead leg, which gives him trouble with the breaking ball and is not something we usually see in starting pitchers. He’s a former two-way player who is as athletic as you’d expect from that background, and had success in Low A in large part because he threw more strikes and sequenced his pitches so well, but with the reduction in stuff last year he struggled in Double A before the trade and in eight innings after he returned from the Olympics. There’s a lot of reliever risk here, probably 60/40 that he goes to the ‘pen, although if his velocity comes back he should continue to start for now.
6. Joe Ryan, RHP
Age: 26 | 6-2 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 210 in 2018
Acquired in the trade that sent Nelson Cruz to Tampa Bay, Ryan hides the ball extremely well and comes from a lower slot that has allowed him to miss a zillion bats with a fastball that sits around 92 without great movement. This shouldn’t work, but it does: even big-league hitters struggled despite velocity and spin well below the MLB average for four-seamers. He has a four-pitch mix but throws the four-seamer almost two-thirds of the time; it is the pitch where he gives up the most hard contact, but he also uses it to get ahead in the count, and the majority of the contact he gets on the pitch is weak — in other words, hitters usually don’t hit it hard, but when they do, they hit it very hard. That’s probably going to make him homer-prone as a big leaguer, but if he keeps pounding the strike zone, he can be a fourth starter even allowing 30-odd homers a year with a low walk rate and a limit on just how much hard contact he allows in total.
7. Jhoan Duran, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-5 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Duran started the season a bit late, threw 16 ineffective innings, and then went on the injured list with an elbow injury, ending his season. He hasn’t had surgery but did have a PRP injection to try to avoid that outcome. He throws a “splinker,” a hybrid splitter/sinker that generates huge groundball rates — he’s been between 53 percent and 65 percent at every level since the Twins acquired him from Arizona for Eduardo Escobar in July 2018. The Twins have also worked with him on developing a slider to replace his big, loopy curveball, which would help him stay a starter. Ultimately his status comes down to his elbow, and whether the PRP helps him get back on the mound this year.
8. Josh Winder, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-5 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 214 in 2018
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Winder got off to a great start in 2021, representing the Twins in the Futures Game, where he was 95-96 with a plus slider at 85-86 and a very good changeup, but developed a shoulder strain after that and he didn’t pitch after July 21st. Had he not hit the IL, he was probably going to make my top 100; he has size, three pitches, a good delivery, and plus control, with just 13 walks in 14 starts last year (4.7 percent walk-rate). He’s supposed to be ready to go for spring training, and if he’s over the shoulder strain, he has mid-rotation upside and should see the majors this year.
9. Chase Petty, RHP
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 26 in 2021
Petty was the Twins’ first-round pick in 2021, a hard-throwing, athletic right-hander from southern New Jersey who hit 101 in the spring, would regularly sit 95-98 and showed a potentially plus slider in the upper 80s. It’s a high-effort delivery with some head violence, certainly not one you typically see in a starter, so the Twins may have to decide to tone down the delivery to give him a better chance to start or roll the dice on the pure power of his arm and see if he can get to command in spite of how it all works.
10. Noah Miller, SS
Age: 19 | 6-0 | 185 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 36 in 2021
The Twins took Miller, the younger brother of Cleveland infielder Owen Miller, with their competitive balance pick at No. 36 overall in 2021. He has outstanding instincts and feel for the game on both sides of the ball, making up for mostly average and above-average tools with his decisions both at the plate and in the field. He’s a very accurate thrower with soft hands who should be a highly reliable shortstop, while at the plate, he’s a switch-hitter who doesn’t show much chase and should be a high-OBP guy without much power. He has an everyday ceiling if he hits as expected, and should be a guy whose performance always seems to rise above his tools.
11. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
Age: 19 | 5-10 | 165 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Rodriguez has huge raw power, possibly the most anywhere in the Twins’ system, with a swing that produces big flies but can get uphill on him, producing swing and miss despite the beginnings of a solid approach. His swing is strong but controlled; he’s actually very balanced at the plate, starting from a wide base and maintaining that balance throughout, even as he rotates his hips to use his legs for more power. The swing path gives him trouble with fastballs up and left-handed breaking stuff, but I like the Twins’ chances to reduce that and keep his swing plane more in that optimal launch angle range. He’s a corner outfielder with enough arm for right, with 30+ homer potential if he just cuts down on the misses in the zone.
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12. Blayne Enlow, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 76 in 2017
Enlow was the Twins’ first pick in the third round in 2017 and signed for an over-slot bonus; he was a classic projection right-hander, showing athleticism and a sound delivery but needing to gain strength for more velocity and durability. He was making great progress when his elbow snapped in May, requiring Tommy John surgery that ended his season. There’s hope we’ll see him back before 12 months have elapsed and his stuff continued to trend up right until the UCL tear, with a fastball regularly hitting 97 and better ability to miss bats.
13. Matt Canterino, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 54 in 2019
Canterino, a Rice University alum (or should I say survivor), was limited to six incredibly effective starts last year by repeated elbow problems, including a strain and inflammation. He still showed above-average stuff when healthy, with the fastball and both breaking balls all projecting to 55 or 60, which is why he struck out 54 percent of batters he faced — yes, that’s correct — with a strikeout-to-walk ratio over 11. His changeup still lags behind his other pitches, so he isn’t a slam-dunk starter if healthy, but the bigger concern is whether his elbow will allow him to do so. If not, add him to the list with fellow Rice alums Jeff Niemann, Wade Townsend, Phil Humber, Cole St. Clair, Jon Duplantier, Ryan Berry, Joe Savery, Kenny Baugh…
14. Cade Povich, LHP
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 98 in 2021
The Twins’ 2021 third-rounder was one of the big surprises of Instructional league, as he went from 88-90 in the spring to 91-94 by the fall, and still showed the solid-average, two-plane curveball he had before. He’s got three pitches with a good delivery that keeps him over the rubber and doesn’t give hitters a great look at his fastball. He has the room to add 15-20 pounds to get another half-grade of velocity, which would make him a future fourth starter.
15. Louie Varland, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 449 in 2019
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Varland was a 15th-round pick out of local Concordia University in 2019; he spent the pandemic year working on his velocity, boosting his fastball and slider. He struck out a third of the guys he faced last year at both levels of A-ball, thanks to his three-pitch mix (including a split-change) and a fastball that now averages 94. I could see a back-end starter here even if his stuff never gets any better than what we saw last year, which would be a heck of a return for the 15th round. Concordia, by the way, has never produced a big leaguer, and has had only four players drafted, two of whom were Louie and his brother, Gus.
16. Misael Urbina, OF
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Urbina showed an advanced feel for the strike zone as a 19-year-old in Low A, but didn’t have the strength to do much with the contact he made, hitting just .224 on balls in play and posting an ISO of .095. He’s a centerfielder who so far has shown the range and reads to stay there, with plus speed that might give him some value on the bases as he learns to use it. It’s going to come down to strength – not so much traditional, best-shape-of-his-life strength, but finding ways to improve his grip or forearm strength for higher contact quality.
17. Keoni Cavaco, 3B
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 13 in 2019
The Twins’ first-round pick in 2019, Cavaco hasn’t hit at all in two pro seasons, with a .233/.296/.301 line in Low A last year. The raw power he was supposed to have as an amateur hasn’t been evident at all in pro ball, and he’s shown the propensity to bail out, especially on anything moving away from him. He’s 20 without a ton of experience so far, but the early returns are discouraging.
18. Gilbert Celestino, OF
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Celestino is probably a fourth outfielder at this point, although if he learns to drive the ball better and perhaps tightens up his breaking ball recognition, he has the patience and athleticism to be something more than that.
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19. Drew Strotman, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-3 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 109 in 2017
Strotman, who came over in the Nelson Cruz trade, has always had a great arm but not the results to match, with a huge walk rate last year and spike in home runs after the trade. It’s a big fastball that might play better in relief.
20. Cole Sands, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 154 in 2018
Sands had a solid year in Double A, with a slight uptick in stuff and career best strikeout rate, but it came with a jump in his walk rate, and he continued to have issues with left-handed batters. He comes from a low 3/4 slot that makes him tough on right-handers, and his best pitch is his curveball, so he’ll have a nice floor as a swingman/reliever for situations where he’s likely to face mostly righties. He should be ready to do that in the majors this year, although the Twins could try to develop him further as a starter in Triple A.
Others of note
Right-hander Marco Raya is six-feet tall with a slight frame but shows electric stuff, up to 98 mph with a hammer breaking ball in the low 80s. He was drafted in 2020 and then missed 2021 with shoulder soreness, so we haven’t seen him in games yet, and everyone will tell you someone with his size can’t start. He’s healthy now and should make his pro debut this spring, at which point we’ll get a better read on how the arsenal plays against pro hitters and whether he has the command and control to be more than a reliever. … The Twins 2020 first-rounder, first baseman Aaron Sabato, hit just .185 with three homers in the first two months of last season, doing nothing at the plate except drawing walks, so he had a .383 on-base percentage in that same span. He at least found his power for the final three months, with a .212/.360/.493 line that was boosted by 17 homers. He’s a DH in waiting who might be a platoon bat on the wrong side — he’s right-handed and destroyed lefties last year — or at best a discount Joey Gallo. … Lefty Steve Hajjar is 6-5 but pitched soft while at Michigan, both in stuff and delivery. After the Twins took him in the second round, he was up to 95 mph in pro ball before his season ended with hamstring and forearm tightness. He’s a great project for player development, as his whole arsenal will play up if he extends better over his front side… Matt Wallner has big-time power with way too much swing and miss — 34 percent strikeout rate last year, with a huge platoon split as well, so even if he made more contact his upside would be a platoon right fielder. What he should do is go back to the mound, where he’ll probably sit mid-90s in relief. … Lefty Christian MacLeod has above-average command of below-average stuff, often working in the upper 80s for Mississippi State, where he struck out 31 percent of batters last spring but still posted a 5.23 ERA and gave up a homer every five innings. He’s 6-4, 227 pounds, so he certainly looks like he should be throwing harder, and if the Twins can find a way to get him to even an average fastball they’d have a fifth starter. … Edouard Julien was old for Low A at 22, but did draw 110 walks to lead the minors, with 18 homers, between Low and High A in 2021. It’s as much passivity as discipline, as he punched out 144 times; 49.4 percent of his plate appearances ended in a walk or a strikeout. He’s a man without a position despite above-average speed, probably settling into left field if he can’t improve his defense anywhere on the dirt. Julien was an 18th-rounder in 2019. He’s only two months older than Sabato, and definitely outperformed the higher pick last year. … Alerick Soularie was limited to just 34 games by a sprained ankle and then a broken foot. By the time he got on the field for the first time, it was late August and he was down below his usual playing weight. He controls the zone well, but there’s some back-side collapse in his swing that may inhibit his ability to make contact, and he’s almost certainly going to end up in an outfield corner. We’ll see how he hits when he’s at full strength and not coming off a leg injury.
2022 impact
Ryan is in the rotation. Sands could end up in the bullpen at some point. If Winder is healthy and throws like he threw before he hit the injured list last year, he’ll be in this rotation by the All-Star Break. He’s one of the five best starters in the organization right now. Balazovic might debut later in the year. I’m hopeful the work the Twins are doing with Martin shows early results, as he’d be on the fast track to the majors too.
The fallen
The Twins’ 2017 draft class has fallen on hard times. Lewis and Enlow both suffered season-ending injuries, while their second-round pick, Landon Leach, walked 23 guys in 28 2/3 innings in Low A. He’s been limited to just 69 2/3 innings since signing due to multiple injuries.
Sleeper
There’s a lot of upside in this system. Since I think a healthy Winder ends up in the big leagues, I’ll go with Rodriguez for next year’s big riser into the top 100.
(Photo of Austin Martin: John Byrum / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
