The Cardinals’ big bet on high-upside high school talent in the 2020 draft appears to be paying off already, although those kids aren’t the only potential stars in a system that still boasts quite a few of them despite years of lower draft positions and the occasional trade to help the big-league roster.
To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Nolan Gorman, 2B/3B (Top 100 ranking: No. 17)
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 19 in 2018
Nolan Gorman has always had power, but so much of the rest of his game was in question that the Cardinals were able to get his grade-80 power with the 19th overall pick back in 2018. He struck out 152 times in his first full pro season in 2019, including a 32 percent strikeout rate in High A, with somewhat less game power than expected. He made a huge leap in 2021, however, cutting his strikeout rate to 22 percent, even though he spent the majority of the season in Triple A as a 21-year-old who entered the year with no experience above A ball. It is easy power, too, thanks to a combination of aggressive hip rotation from a wide stance and a strong lower half. Gorman has worked on his defense to become passable at third or second, with room for further improvement, although he’s probably never going to be more than an average (net zero runs) defender at either spot. His bat will carry him — there’s still 35-40 home run power in there, and given the rapid improvement in his approach in 2021, there’s a greater chance than ever that he’ll get to it.
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2. Jordan Walker, 3B (Top 100 ranking: No. 30)
Age: 20 | 6-5 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 21 in 2020
Jordan Walker was the Cardinals’ first-round pick in 2020, selected by the late area scout Charles Peterson (who died two months later of COVID-19), and at the time seemed like a high-risk/high-reward pick who had a chance for four plus tools but might really struggle to hit. St. Louis challenged Walker with an assignment to Low A to start 2021, and he put up a .374/.475/.687 line in a month in Palm Beach — not a great place to hit — before a promotion to High A, where he hit .292/.344/.487 the rest of the way as the only 19-year-old to play regularly in the High-A Central league. He’s already shown the ability to make adjustments at the plate in-season, although pitchers at the higher level were able to get him to chase more often, even when he was doing more damage when he did make contact. He’s a plus runner who projects to at least 60 power, but he’s already big for third base (listed at 6-foot-5, 220, which is what he weighed when he was drafted) and has a long way to go to stay there, with right field a far more likely long-term position. His debut was one of the most impressive — and surprising — of anyone from the 2020 draft class, but there’s still a wide range of possible outcomes around his hit tool. He has 30/30 upside with 55 defense in right field and mid-.300s OBPs, which would make him at least an above-average regular who has some All-Star seasons.
3. Matthew Liberatore, LHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 36)
Age: 22 | 6-4 |200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 16 in 2018
Matthew Liberatore continues to progress in all aspects of the game, from physical maturation to developing his offspeed pitches to improving his feel for pitching, further fulfilling his status as a first-round pick. He works at 92-95 with good downhill plane and has a four-pitch mix, all of them major-league average or better. The curveball is clearly plus — helping him hold lefties to a .244/.307/.339 line — while the changeup is improved but less consistent. Right-handers hit 17 homers off him last year, so establishing the changeup more as a viable weapon against them will be the key for him to become a mid-rotation starter or better. He’s made so much progress already since signing in 2018, despite still having just 235 innings in pro ball, that I’m betting he gets there.
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4. Ivan Herrera, C (Top 100 ranking: No. 75)
Age: 22 | 5-11 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Ivan Herrera had just 18 games at High A in 2019 but moved up to Double A in 2021, where he showed strong secondary skills but didn’t hit well on balls in play, with just a .261 BABIP on the year that’s not in line with his underlying skills. Herrera has an advanced approach for such a young hitter, with good plate coverage and an evident plan to get to something he can drive. He’s made himself into a capable defender behind the plate with an above-average arm, and has earned rave reviews from the Cardinals’ staff for his work ethic. He has power, with 17 homers in 99 games last year, and if he brings that harder contact more consistently, he should be in the majors by the end of the year, perhaps to take over from Yadier Molina for 2023.
5. Masyn Winn, SS
Age: 20 | 5-11 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 54 in 2020
Masyn Winn is an otherworldly athlete with ridiculous bat speed and an 80 arm that might have him sitting upper 90s if the Cardinals need to put him back on the mound. He’s overly aggressive at the plate, and that was exploited by the time he reached High A late in the season after a very productive debut in Low-A (.262/.370/.388). He’s a plus runner and should get to at least average power. The main question around him is his hit tool — it’s a noisy approach and his bat can get in and out of the zone too quickly — and if he hits at all, he’s going to be an above-average regular. There are still a lot of scouts who doubt that he’ll ever do so, and would like to see him go back to pitching, where he has huge arm strength but a violent delivery that would make him a very likely reliever.
6. Zack Thompson, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 19 in 2019
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Zack Thompson was the Cards’ first-round pick in 2019, throwing 13 innings in High A that summer after he signed, but St. Louis started him in 2021 all the way up in Triple A, where he struggled to a 7+ ERA, including 18 homers allowed in 93 innings. His stuff was still excellent, however; he pitched in the Arizona Fall League and was sitting at 92-95 mph with good life, while both his tight mid-70s curveball and mid-80s changeup were at least above-average pitches, although strikes were still a problem there. This was a huge jump for a guy who’d barely pitched in pro ball before 2021, and given his starter’s arsenal, he should get another chance to right the ship in the Triple-A rotation this year. He could be a high-impact, full-inning reliever if that’s where his command sends him.
7. Juan Yepez, 1B
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Juan Yepez is a thick-bodied, strong kid who has power and handles the bat very well, making up for merely average bat speed with his ability to get the bat head to the ball, even inside. He’s a well below-average runner who’s limited to first base, but the plus power and patience could make him a regular there.
8. Malcom Nunez, 3B
Age: 21 | 5-11 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Signed for just $300,000 back in 2018, Malcom Nunez reached Double A last year and started to come into the power that had been projected for him since he was an amateur. He’s a stocky, strong right-handed hitter who’s very rotational, leading to power but with a tendency to rotate so much he starts to collapse his back leg too son. He has good hand-eye to cover the plate, posting above-average contact rates despite being young for his levels last year. Third base might be asking a bit much of him, especially given how his body looks at age 20, which does limit his ceiling, and the hope is that he hits for a high average with enough power to profile elsewhere.
9. Joshua Baez, OF
Age: 19 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 54 in 2021
Joshua Baez was the Cardinals’ second-round pick in 2021 out of a Boston-area prep school, where he showed huge tools but barely faced any quality pitching. He has 70 raw power and swings hard all the time, leading to swing-and-miss both on the showcase circuit and after he signed last summer, although he at least shows the bat speed to catch up to velocity. He’s an average runner with a plus-plus arm who should be an above-average defender in right field, which is where he’ll likely end up as he moves up the ladder. He’s a high-risk, high-reward hitter, but the Cardinals nailed one of those picks the year before in Walker, and I can understand them returning to the well.
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10. Michael McGreevy, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 18 in 2021
Michael McGreevy was the Cards’ 2021 first-round pick, a very polished college right-hander who walked just 11 batters all spring in 101 2/3 innings. He worked mostly with average or fringe-average velocity in college, touching 94 but often 88-92, with good spin on his breaking ball, but it’s the command that separates him from his peers — he has consistently shown he can put the ball where he wants it, and that should help him race through at least the low minors. He’s 6-foot-4, 215, so it’s not out of the question that he could add some velocity now that he’s in a pro player development environment, too, which would give him a chance to be more than a league-average starter.
11. Tink Hence, RHP
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 63 in 2020
Tink Hence threw just eight innings last year as the Cardinals try to bring the Arkansas high school product, their second-round pick in 2020, along slowly, especially since the polish he showed in high school may have been a function of poor competition. He’s got a low- to mid-90s fastball and potential out pitch in the curveball, with athleticism and youth on his side, lacking much projection for more velocity but likely not needing it either.
12. Angel Rondón, P
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Angel Rondón is a potential league-average starter with a great fastball/changeup combo that has helped him dominate left-handed batters the last few years, although he needs to find a better breaking ball, as his curveball has velocity but neither much spin nor much break.
13. Andre Pallante, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 203 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 125 in 2019
Andre Pallante has an unusual, catapult-like delivery, but everything he throws is hard and sharp, with a fastball that’s 94-97 and power to the slider and curve. His changeup lags well behind the other pitches and he’s a long way from even fringy command. This stuff would be nasty in a bullpen look, which is good because he’s not very likely to stay a starter with this delivery and the command issues.
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14. Alec Burleson, OF
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 212 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 70 in 2020
Alec Burleson might be a platoon bat in a corner outfield spot, with plus power and just enough selectivity to be an asset in the lineup against right-handed pitchers, although he doesn’t hit lefties at all and he’s a fringy defender in either corner.
15. Austin Love, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 232 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 90 in 2021
Austin Love was badly overworked at UNC last spring, but had a lot of success with a very short arm action and an arsenal that features a 92-95 mph fastball, short-breaking slider, and hard changeup. It’s a reliever look but he should at least get a chance to start given the three pitches and solid-average control.
16. Connor Lunn, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 335 in 2019
Connor Lunn is a command right-hander with average stuff who goes right after hitters, daring them to make contact, sitting mostly 90-92 with some cut on the pitch and a solid average changeup. The USC product, taken in the 11th round in 2019, is also a big tinkerer and likely to continue to surprise people with small changes to his stuff or even his delivery.
17. Connor Thomas, LHP
Age: 24 | 5-11 | 173 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 155 in 2019
Connor Thomas is an old-school guy, a very quick worker who’s 88-91 with run and sink to the fastball, pairing it with a backdoor slider and pristine command. He doesn’t miss many bats but had a ground ball rate near 60 percent between Double A and Triple A last year, and if he keeps the ball in the park he could be a solid back-end starter.
18. Brendan Donovan, IF
Age: 25 | 6-1 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 213 in 2018
Brendan Donovan controls the strike zone with a simple, no-stride approach geared toward contact without power. He can move around the infield, playing six different positions over the course of 2021, and seems like an ideal utility player and left-handed bench bat who might be a soft regular at second for some clubs.
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19. Julio Rodriguez, C
Age: 25 | 6-0 | 245 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Julio Rodriguez played in just 36 games this year due to a hand injury, which makes it unsurprising that he didn’t hit well when he did get on the field. He’s a good catch-and-throw guy, enough to play in the big leagues, but has no real history of hitting for average or power or even of getting on base.
20. Alec Willis, P
Age: 19 | 6-5 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 211 in 2021
Alec Willis was the Cards’ seventh-round pick in 2021, signing for $1 million as the only high school pitcher St. Louis selected in that draft. He’s been up to 95 with a soft knuckle-curve, lacking much life on the fastball, and he’s already had one non-Tommy John elbow surgery.
Others of note
Ryan Holgate has big power and can crush a fastball, but he struggled with offspeed stuff while at the University of Arizona and he’s limited to corner spots. … Luken Baker hit 28 homers for Double-A Springfield, but the 6-foot-4, 280-pound TCU alum has no position and his .324 OBP last year isn’t likely to land him a DH job. … Jhon Torres just didn’t hit in High A last year, with a .238/.302/.366 line that showed neither power nor patience, and as a corner outfielder he has to produce to be anything. … Shortstop Delvin Perez tripled his career home run total, hitting four in 2021, and might end up getting a cup of coffee somewhere as an emergency fill-in at shortstop. … Ian Bedell missed almost all of 2021 after Tommy John surgery, but the command righty should be back before midseason. He’s a four-pitch righty with plus control and some deception, with a back-end starter ceiling.
2022 Impact
Gorman and Liberatore should both debut this year; Gorman might be their best option at second base, at least by June if not right now. Rondón and Thomas will get some innings as well.
The fallen
St. Louis’ third-round pick from 2020, University of Oklahoma left-hander Levi Prater, was a disaster in Low-A Palm Beach last year, walking 68 in 68 innings and giving up 13 homers.
Sleeper
Baez offers the most upside of any of their guys not currently on the top 100.
(Photo of Matthew Liberatore: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
