I had Charlie Condon as the No. 1 prospect for this year’s MLB Draft in my rankings last month. I’m starting to think that was too low.
Condon went off in the two games I caught at Tennessee this weekend, going 6-for-10 with two doubles, two homers, a walk, and a strikeout, while playing perfectly competent defense in center field. He did go 0-for-4 on Sunday in the rubber match, with two strikeouts, but that doesn’t count because I had already gone home. (I had eggs to hide.)
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Condon may be the only college player in this draft who offers the combination of production and athleticism that teams selecting at the very top typically look for. In the last 20 drafts, 10 college players have gone first overall, and first baseman Spencer Torkelson is the only clear exception to that production/athleticism combo — that was the 2020 draft, which we can all agree now was cursed. The last three college hitters to go first overall were two catchers and a shortstop. Last year’s top pick, LSU pitcher Paul Skenes, was athletic enough to be a two-way player at Air Force before transferring.
This year’s draft may not see a college shortstop, catcher, or — depending on how you view Condon — center fielder taken in the top-10 picks. Two second basemen, Travis Bazzana and JJ Wetherholt (who has been “day to day” for a month now, an ontological impossibility), are it for up-the-middle players right now. While Condon is more likely to start his major-league career in a corner — either third base or right field — than in center, the fact that he’s even in center right now, and playing it capably, is another reason beyond his performance to consider him at 1-1.
Condon could do almost no wrong against the Volunteers, even launching a laser off the batter’s eye in his last at-bat in Saturday’s slugfest, bringing the Dawgs to within five at 16-11 in a game that was otherwise over. He’s changed his hand position from last summer, starting them a little bit higher, and it’s loosened him up entirely at the plate. Condon has explosive bat speed and the loft in his finish to hit hard line drives all over the field, like the one he hit in the ninth on Saturday, which was a more impressive homer than the hard-hit popup that went out earlier in the same game. (You don’t get extra points if your homers are impressive, but the first one was a little wind-aided, and a little Lindsey Field-aided.)
Condon AGAIN!
Top 9️⃣
🐶 11
🟠 16📺 https://t.co/arjGftp6V0 (SECN)
🎧 https://t.co/8udSNmg0EJ
📊 https://t.co/1cmmOj0i3Y#GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/Yc5f2Mqa9N— Georgia Baseball (@BaseballUGA) March 31, 2024
He’s also shown outstanding plate discipline across the board this year, with a low chase rate and strong contact rates on all pitch types. He’s whiffed on fastballs less than 10 percent of the time he’s swung this spring, and his overall whiff rate sat at 13 percent after Friday’s game, according to data from Synergy Sports. He homered off 95 and 98 mph on Saturday, and one of his doubles was off a slider from a lefty. Condon ran a tick above average out of the box, probably a solid 50 runner overall but able to post 55 times now and then, and he was fine in center.
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He’s got power, he’s got feel to hit, he’s got plate discipline. He hits the ball plenty hard, with his two homers leaving the bat at 108 and 111 mph. He runs well enough to expect no worse than above-average defense in an outfield corner, and he should at least start his career at either center field or, depending on who you ask, maybe third base, which I didn’t get to see in person. None of this makes Condon a lock to go first overall, but I think he’s going to be at the top of a lot of teams’ boards.
Scouting on Tennessee’s four potential top-three round picks
Tennessee could see four guys from its lineup drafted in the top three rounds, although one, third baseman Billy Amick, didn’t play this weekend after he had an appendectomy. Of the guys who did play, outfielder Dylan Dreiling really stood out for his bat, homering twice on Saturday, and while it’s not a picture-perfect swing he makes it work with very strong swing decisions. Dreiling doesn’t chase any more often than Condon does, although he doesn’t have the Georgia star’s ability to square up pretty much any fastball. A left-handed hitter, Dreiling does have above-average power from left-center over to right, and he showed he was willing to stay with offspeed stuff and try to go the other way, going back up the middle several times off right-handers’ changeups.
He takes a big stride and gets a ton of power from his hips, and while his hands can lag slightly behind them, he seems to have really strong hand-eye coordination to get the bat to the ball consistently — and then all that hip rotation helps him drive the ball to all fields. After Sunday, he’s now second on the Vols in slugging, just a few percentage points behind first baseman Blake Burke. Dreiling’s probably the least heralded of their four prospect bats, but I think he could sneak into the back of Day 1 in the second round.
Burke can really hit, though, and it’s kind of Kyle Schwarber-ish all around — left-handed power with a very hard, fast swing, along with a solid approach, but defense that might leave you covering your eyes. Georgia kept attacking him in the zone, which is not a great idea, finally striking him out on 94 up above the top of the zone in the last of the eight at-bats I saw. He unloaded on 92 for a long homer to right, and showed reasonable command of the strike zone even with a higher chase rate coming into the series.
Blake with a LOUD response to Georgia's big inning with a record-tying #BurkeBlast!
📺 https://t.co/5jnZNC3oiq #GBO // #OTH // #BeatUGA pic.twitter.com/3euOY7rJvA
— Tennessee Baseball (@Vol_Baseball) March 30, 2024
On defense, though, he might just be a DH. He had at least three defensive miscues in the two games, once leaving the bag on a ground ball both the pitcher and second baseman were pursuing, so there was no one at first to take a throw, and another time falling down to catch a routine if slightly low throw on a bunt. It’s low mobility and limited feel, as he was often in the wrong position for a play. I like the bat, though. If you knew you were getting Kyle Schwarber’s career — 12 WAR so far, but that number is depressed by his very negative defensive metrics — where would you take him?
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Vols second baseman Christian Moore was also getting some first-round buzz off a strong start to 2024, but I’m a real skeptic after seeing a bad setup and a bad approach along with some trouble on defense. Moore starts out with a super-wide setup at the plate and has no stride, just a tiny toe-tap for timing, so when Georgia pitchers changed speeds in any way, he was toast. He had one at-bat in particular on Saturday where he struck out on three pitches, all sliders, and made no adjustment because he can’t with that setup.
He botched what would have been an inning-ending double-play ball on Friday by letting the ball play him rather than moving his body to get in front of the hard grounder. It’s just not a lot of feel on either side of the ball, particularly in terms of picking up pitch types, and given how high the bar is typically for college second basemen in the draft — and how good this year’s group of college second basemen is — I have a hard time seeing him above the third round.
The final scores of Friday’s and Saturday’s games were 16-2 Georgia and 16-11 Tennessee, so there was not a lot of pitching to discuss. AJ Causey started Friday night for Tennessee and had his worst outing of the year; the sidearming right-hander was 89-92 with a little sink, along with a fringy changeup and slider, and Georgia hit him like they knew what was coming. Right-hander Drew Beam started out strong on Saturday but the second time through the order the Dawgs bit back; he was 92-95 with a fringy slider and change, plus an occasional cutter that was his best pitch in this particular game. The changeup had been an out pitch for him before this series, but here it was too firm and Georgia hitters weren’t fooled by it. He did show some feel to move the ball around, even attacking Condon with 95 in under his hands, and he has a very quick arm. He’s got a hook when his arm is behind him and I think that’s causing him trouble with his slot and release point, at least in this one start.
Cam Caminiti report
I’ve been hanging on to my notes from seeing Arizona prep lefty Cam Caminiti, cousin of the late NL MVP Ken Caminiti, back on March 13, for just such an occasion. Caminiti was outstanding in that game in front of at least 75 scouts, including numerous directors and VPs, and at this point he’s probably the top high school southpaw in the draft. He was 94-97 on his four-seamer and 92-95 on the two-seamer with a straight change that had good arm speed but could get a little firm, best at 86-88 but a little less deceptive up at 90.
The talk pre-season was that he had zero breaking ball, but in this outing he just had a below-average one, 76-80 with decent shape and some two-plane break. It’s just not that sharp and he doesn’t have feel to land it consistently. I saw enough spin there to think someone might give him a slider and that’ll become his breaking ball. He’s a great athlete and the delivery was really good, especially for a two-way guy who’s a little less experienced — he reclassified last June from the class of 2025 to this year’s draft. Readers know my feelings on taking high school arms in the first round, but if a team chooses to go that route anyway, he’s among the best choices.
(Top photo of Condon: Stew Milne / Associated Press)
