The Padres’ system took hit after hit with a series of trades over the last two years that sent away more than a dozen prospects, several of whom are now in the top 10s of their new clubs’ rankings. Continued successful drafts are keeping this system afloat, and it could see a second surge with some of their more recent international free agent signings.
Advertisement
To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
Note: Ages as of July 1, 2022.
1. CJ Abrams, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 5)
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 6 in 2019
Abrams’ year got off to an incredible start, as he hit .296/.363/.420 in 42 games for Double-A San Antonio, with 13 steals in 15 attempts to go along with it, all at 20 years old. Then everything went wrong. He fractured his left tibia and sprained the MCL in his left knee in a collision at second base the week before the Futures Game, missed the rest of the regular season, then bruised his left shoulder in Instructional league and missed the Arizona Fall League. The calamities probably cost him about 300 at-bats, and the broken leg meant he didn’t get the chance to move up to Triple A and face better competition in the second half. Abrams is an 80 runner with reports from instructs that he was running fine again, and a plus defender at shortstop with great actions and a quick release on throws. He could, if necessary, move to centerfield, where his speed would give him a chance to be plus, as well. He has great bat speed and has been working on adding strength to get more in-game power, although we didn’t see any of that in his brief time playing in 2021. He might have been ready to see the majors by now if he had been healthy in the second half, but he missed the time to work on small adjustments, like recognizing pitch types and locations from older pitchers who have better secondary stuff and command. He still projects as a star, whether at short or in center, especially if his elite speed is intact after that gruesome injury.
Advertisement
2. Robert Hassell III, OF (Top 100 ranking: No. 24)
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 8 in 2020
The Padres took Hassell with the eighth pick in 2020, betting on a strong hit tool and above-average speed, and his full-season debut more than fulfilled expectations. Hassell hit .323/.415/.482 as a 19-year-old in Low A, finishing second in the artist formerly known as the California League in OBP (behind a 27-year-old who did not belong at that level). Hassell has a short swing with very fast hand acceleration, so he can let the ball travel and commit later than most hitters. He’ll come into average power, but will probably always be a hitter for average/OBP first, with power a secondary part of his game. He’s an above-average runner who was a solid 55 defender in center this year and was 34 of 40 stealing bases (85 percent), finishing in the top five in the I’m-still-calling-it-the-California-League in steals as well. He’s such a good hitter for contact already, with just a 17 percent strikeout rate last year, that he might be on his way to a 65 or 70 hit tool at his peak. I’m sure Padres fans have some idea what an elite hit tool looks like, and while there’s always variance around any projection like that on that particular tool, Hassell might just be the heir to that crown, challenging for batting average and OBP titles in his mid-20s.
3. Mackenzie Gore, LHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 59)
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 197 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 3 in 2017
Gore had a miserable 2021, losing his delivery early in the spring, spending several weeks in Peoria at the Padres’ complex to try to rework and simplify it, and having only intermittent success after his return. He was also still 93-98. His changeup is easy plus, maybe a 70. His slider is plus. His curveball has backed up some, but when he hits it it’s above-average. He’s still incredibly athletic. His arm stroke is shorter now, and he’s had days when he’s repeated it well and thrown strikes, but he’s also had days where he slips back into old habits. There’s still a No. 1 starter ceiling here; only the probability has dropped, but it ain’t zero, folks. I’m not walking away from this kind of upside and athleticism, even with a lost season on his resume.
4. Luis Campusano, C (Top 100 ranking: No. 67)
Age: 23 | 5-11 | 232 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 39 in 2017
Advertisement
Campusano got a cup of coffee in the majors to start the 2021 season, going 3 for 34, and then went to Triple-A El Paso and hit like he’s always hit, although the ballpark and the Triple-A ball surely helped him as well. He’s still the Padres’ catcher of the future, with excellent bat control and a history of making hard contact, running his exit velocity up to 109 in his brief major-league stint. He has a compact swing and still has great bat control, although his strikeout rate in Triple A was his highest so far in pro ball. Behind the plate, he’s continuing to improve, at least average behind the plate with decent framing skills, and he has a plus arm that hasn’t translated into controlling the running game yet. He has above-average everyday upside, if not more, but the 2021 season was more of a plateau than a step forward for him. There’s no one blocking him in San Diego, so he’s likely to spend most of this year in the majors.
5. Jackson Merrill, SS
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 27 in 2021
The Padres’ first-round pick in 2021 out of a Maryland high school, Merrill is a sure-handed shortstop with plus speed and some power, but has a tendency to get too uphill, costing him hits as he chases home runs. If the Padres can fine-tune his launch angle, he has the feel to hit and positional value to be a solid regular at short, maybe a 55 at his peak.
6. Josh Mears, OF
Age: 21 | 6-3 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 48 in 2019
Mears has 80 raw power thanks to explosive bat speed that has produced top exit velocities in the 117-118 mph range, but he missed about half of the 2021 season with a concussion and a shoulder injury, hitting .244/.368/.529 with a scary 39 percent strikeout rate in 72 games for Low-A Lake Elsinore. He’s going to end up in right field and has 40+ homer upside, but has to cut down on the swing and miss, which is hard for a guy who swings this hard all the time.
7. James Wood, OF
Age: 19 | 6-7 | 240 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 62 in 2021
Wood was awful this past spring for IMG Academy, falling from a likely top-15 selection to the second round, where the Padres chose to give him first-round money (even though he seemed very unlikely to go to college). After a spring where multiple scouts came away with the impression that he wasn’t interested in playing at all, playing without energy and struggling to hit high school pitching, he hit .372/.465/.535 in a month in the Arizona Complex League, with a 32 percent strikeout rate, stealing 10 bags without getting caught. He is huge, listed at 6-foot-7, 240 pounds, with 70 raw power, plus speed, and plenty of athleticism and arm to stay in center. He will have to put the ball in play more as he moves up, and we’ll see how he responds to adversity at the next level, but it is quite possible that the Padres landed a high first-round talent here.
Advertisement
8. Euribiel Angeles, SS
Age: 20 | 5-11 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Angeles played three infield spots (shortstop, third base and second base) in both Low A and High A last year, hitting .343/.397/.461 as a 19-year-old at the first stop before a late-season promotion to High-A Fort Wayne. He’s not the typical high-ceiling Padres prospect, lacking any real plus tools except for possibly his bat, and he may end up a multi-position regular, but his feel to hit, from sheer bat-to-ball skills to understanding of the strike zone for his age, is impressive.
9. Robert Gasser, LHP
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 71 in 2021
The Padres took Gasser with their competitive balance pick after the second round in 2021, landing one of the best college lefties in the draft class. He has above-average control of a three-pitch mix, topping out at 95 but working more with solid-average velocity, using a slot a bit below 3/4 that gives him some deception. I’m not sure if he has a plus pitch but even three average pitches with his strike-throwing ability would make him a back-end starter.
10. Sammy Zavala, OF
Age: 17 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left| Throws: Left
Zavala signed for $1.2 million last January, then went to the Dominican Summer League as a 16-year-old and hit .297/.400/.487, making him the youngest player to rank in the top 50 in that league in OBP or SLG. He’s got a great, smooth left-handed swing that should continue to produce hard contact and line-drive power, with a plus arm in case he eventually moves to right field, and he’s already shown great aptitude on the field. He’s still a fringy runner, and DSL stats can be kind of meaningless, but almost every pitcher he faced there was older than he was, which bodes well for him coming to extended spring training and the ACL this year. It’s a good starter kit for an impact bat in right field, though.
11. Victor Acosta, SS
Age: 18 | 5-11 | 170 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Advertisement
Acosta got $1.8 million as an international free agent in 2020, a potential four-tool shortstop who’ll field the position well with a plus arm, plus speed, and a high-upside bat without power. He hit .285/.431/.484 in the DSL last summer at 17 — caveats about the unreliability of DSL performance apply — and should be on track to debut in the US this year, probably in the ACL but perhaps seeing Low A before the year is out.
12. Tirso Ornelas, OF
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Ornelas hit 31 doubles in High A last year as a 21-year-old, hitting .248/.344/.389 overall, then went to his native Mexico this winter and continued raking, with 16 more doubles in 60 games (in a hitter’s league). He makes a lot of contact, but needs to make more of it hard contact to be a regular in an outfield corner. I have always loved his swing, but now it’s a matter of adding strength.
13. Justin Lange, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 34 in 2020
Lange has huge stuff and a workhorse build, but showed a lack of command in limited time in 2021 and was dealing with a knee injury that didn’t require surgery. He’d been up to 100 as an amateur with a chance for an above-average slider and changeup.
14. Victor Lizarraga, RHP
Age: 18 | 6-3 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right| Throws: Right
Lizarraga was born in San Diego and grew up in Chula Vista, but signed as an international free agent for $1 million last March after moving to Mexico. He’s a 6-4 right-hander with an easy delivery and a lot of projection left, with a potential four-pitch mix. He’s a long-term project as the Padres wait for his body to fill out.
15. Eguy Rosario, 2B
Age: 22 | 5-9 | 150 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Rosario is undersized, but hits the ball pretty hard for a 5-9 guy, with 31 doubles, three triples, and 12 homers last year for Double-A San Antonio, with an above-average contact rate. I saw just average run times in the Arizona Fall League but he has run better than that and stole 30 bases in 44 attempts last year. He’s limited to second base, however, and might be just a soft regular there.
Advertisement
16. Nerwilian Cedeno, 3B
Age: 20 | 5-11 | 175 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Signed while the Padres were still in the international penalty box in 2018, Cedeno missed most of 2021 due to injury, but the switch-hitter started to fill out and drive the ball more while moving more or less full-time to third base. There’s still upside with the hit tool here.
17. Brandon Valenzuela, C
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 170 pounds
Bats: Both | Throws: Right
Valenzuela is a big catch-and-throw guy who has enough feel for the barrel that he could work himself into an everyday role, especially if he just gets a little stronger to keep up with better pitching. He doesn’t punch out very often and has an idea of the strike zone, without much power, which probably caps his upside, but he should have a long career even as a backup.
18. Adrian Martinez, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-2 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Martinez signed way back in 2015, threw 16 innings that summer, and then blew out his elbow, so he didn’t see full-season ball until 2018 and entered this past season with barely 200 innings of pro experience. He became a full-time starter in 2021, pitching extremely well in Double A and fairly well in a late cup of coffee in Triple A, working mostly with his 50/55 fastball and plus changeup, although his slider is showing signs of improvement that would help him become a back-end big-league starter.
19. Kevin Kopps, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-0 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 99 in 2021
Kopps was a 24-year-old, fifth-year senior as the closer for the University of Arkansas last spring when the Padres took him in the third round. Pro ball didn’t faze him, as he continued to dominate by throwing his slider the majority of the time, and he’ll go as far as that pitch will take him. He throws it for strikes and keeps attacking hitters, so I like his chances to at least end up a quality middle reliever in the big leagues.
Advertisement
20. Ray Kerr, RHP
Age: 27 | 6-3 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Kerr was part of the return from Seattle in November for Adam Frazier, coming off a year where he punched out 37 percent of the hitters he faced thanks to a fastball that topped out at 102 mph. He’s got enough of a slider to keep hitters from sitting on the heater, and throws just enough strikes to profile as a middle guy right now. He’s 27, so what you see is probably what you get, but he should pitch in the majors right now.
Others of note
Right-hander Steven Wilson struck out 40 percent of batters he faced for Triple-A El Paso, running it up to 97 with an above-average slider; he’s 27, like Kerr, but I’d take either of them in a big-league bullpen this April … Efraín Contreras missed all of last year after Tommy John in November 2020, but prior to that had an above-average fastball/curveball combination with good control, coming from a 5-10 but well-built frame … The Padres signed right-hander Jarlin Susana just a few weeks ago for $1.7 million; he has shown overwhelming stuff, up to 100 mph with four pitches, including a changeup with big action, and because he’s 17 already we should see him pitch somewhere this summer, maybe even in Arizona … Sixth-rounder Ryan Bergert didn’t pitch in the spring for West Virginia but carved up the ACL after he signed, with no walks and three hits allowed in 11 innings, with a chance for plus control of a lot of average stuff, maybe a fifth starter candidate in time … Fifth-rounder Max Ferguson has to gain a lot of strength, and while he walks a ton (31 times in 152 pro PA after he signed), it’s often passive rather than selective, and he has trouble with sliders away. He’s a plus runner who might turn out to be an asset in center … Lefty Ethan Elliott gets huge extension, 7-2 towards the plate, with ride on his fastball, and he throws a ton of strikes, but probably needs better secondaries.
2022 impact
You could call their 2021 season “Waiting for Gore? D’oh!” if you want people to boo you off the stage. Gore’s stuff is ready now, and if he keeps this revised delivery together, he’ll be in the majors. Kerr and Wilson should see time in the bullpen. Campusano could take over the catching job in the first half.
The fallen
After the season, the Padres outrighted former top-100 prospect Reggie Lawson, who threw just 6 2/3 innings around more injuries and had a hard time throwing strikes. He’ll be 24 this year with just 34 innings pitched since 2018 and only one full, healthy season under his belt.
Sleeper
There’s a lot to like here, but Zavala has the best bet of all their high-upside guys to make a big leap in 2022, even with other toolsy players (Wood, Mears) ahead of him in the system.
(Photo of CJ Abrams: Rob Leiter / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
