The hand-wringing over the Yankees’ loss to Houston in the ALCS is … a bit much. We’re really going to fire the GM over this? Over posting the second-best record in the American League this year, and then losing to the team that posted the best record, a team that allowed the fewest runs per game in the AL this year and scored the third-most? If your standards are World Champs or you’re fired, well, I guess that’s your prerogative, but it seems like a tough way to run a franchise.
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Brian Cashman did do one thing last offseason with which I disagreed, and while I think my prediction about that turned out to be right, it also did not matter, even a tiny bit — not in the regular season, and not in the playoffs. Cashman punted on offense at shortstop and catcher going into the season, trading for the punchless Isiah Kiner-Falefa, a move that I wrote at the time had to be for him to be the backup to some other shortstop they were going to acquire later; and apparently giving the regular catching job to Kyle Higashioka. Their catchers hit .236/.272/.384 on the season, and their shortstops hit .247/.308/.316. Higashioka was a disaster, but Jose Trevino ended up taking the bulk of the catching duties, and his elite defense made up for the lack of thump. In the end, the Yanks got below-average offense from a bunch of positions, and it didn’t matter until they ran into the Astros’ elite run-prevention outfit.
The Yankees could choose to keep Trevino as their primary catcher, although he’ll be 30 next year and what they got from him at the plate is probably the best they’ll get — his 11 homers were his most in a season since he was in Low A, and he hasn’t posted a .290 OBP since High A in 2016. There isn’t much out there in free agency that would provide a clear upgrade. Either they go after Willson Contreras, an inferior defender to Trevino who would give them probably 70 points of OBP and about 50 more total bases in a season, or they stick with what they have. A Contreras/Trevino combo, with Contreras DHing some days when Trevino catches, would probably be the best in the league.
At shortstop, they have a more difficult choice. Last winter, they chose to sit out a strong shortstop free agent class, trading for Kiner-Falefa and just letting him play good defense. This winter, the shortstop class is just as strong, but the Yankees have their top prospect, Anthony Volpe, on the cusp of the majors. Volpe, No. 9 in my midseason rankings, had a slow start in Double A but kept improving as the season went on, with a .251/.348/.472 line there and 31 doubles, 18 homers and 44 steals, ending the year with a brief promotion to Triple A. Whether he’s ready for the majors right now or not, he’ll be ready before midseason, and he is a no-doubt shortstop for me. Signing another shortstop to a long-term deal either pushes Volpe to second or pushes that free agent to another position — and that’s before we discuss Oswald Peraza, a great defensive shortstop without Volpe’s upside at the plate.
The Yankees had five players who played regularly for them this year who were below league-average offensively, including Trevino and Kiner-Falefa, although Joey Gallo is gone. With Aaron Judge possibly leaving as a free agent, however, their offensive outlook for 2023 is pretty dire. Anthony Rizzo was their next-best hitter by wRC+, but he’s going to be 33 and has already lost enough bat speed that he posted a BABIP of just .216. DJ LeMahieu has gone backward. Giancarlo Stanton isn’t the player the Yankees traded for, with a sub-.300 OBP between injured list stints. And those are the good hitters they bring back. They need impact at multiple positions. Retaining Judge does that, of course, but even if they do so — which they may not, depending on what other teams offer and what their feeling is on signing him long-term — they need more help than just him.
Of all of the non-shortstop free agent bats, the best fit might be outfielder Brandon Nimmo, fresh off probably his best season for the crosstown Mets. He could handle center, or be above-average in right; he would immediately be the best OBP player on the team after Judge; and no one can claim that he can’t play in New York. Even if they retain Judge, adding an OBP threat like Nimmo would be an upgrade of a couple of wins over Gallo or Aaron Hicks, whose at-bats from 2022 Nimmo would be replacing. It would also give them more latitude to play Oswaldo Cabrera, a low-OBP slugger who’s limited to left field, if they want to give him a full shot; or to trade him and let Harrison Bader, who has one year left to free agency, take the bulk of the playing time in center in between Nimmo and Judge.
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They could also look to the trade market for offensive help, with Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds, who has been on the trade market since 1963, a fairly obvious fit. He’s also a solid OBP guy with more power than Nimmo but less defensive value. He’s more durable than Nimmo, but has a shorter track record of success in the majors. He’s under contract for 2023 at $6.75 million, and under team control for two years after that, so the price in prospects would be steep, but the Yankees have enough depth to do it, especially if they’d consider including someone like Peraza who could step in every day right now at short.
But I think the bolder and better move for the Yankees would, in fact, be to go after one of those shortstops — but to move him to another position. Josh Donaldson has a year left on his contract, but it looks like he’s cooked. He’ll turn 37 in December, and he couldn’t hit decent velocity this year or handle right-handed sliders. He could have one more bounceback in him, but given his age and the one year remaining on his deal, it’s a sensible time for the Yankees to move on. Maybe the Yankees would go after Carlos Correa, who is probably going to move to third base at some point in the next few years anyway, and install him right at the hot corner, leaving shortstop to Peraza and Volpe, with Kiner-Falefa there as the backup.
Or maybe the Yankees do all of this, because they’re the Yankees, and they can. They can go into next year with the pitching they had at the end of this season, if they want. Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes and Domingo Germán are all under contract and were above-average starters in 2022. Luis Severino returned from three years lost to injuries and was very effective in 19 starts; the Yankees hold a $15 million team option on him for 2023, which might overrate his durability but underrate the quality he provides when he does pitch. If Frankie Montas is your fifth starter, or even your fourth, you’re doing all right. And I still believe Clarke Schmidt can start in the big leagues if he’s healthy. If you want Brian Cashman to do something, that should be fixing the offense, with or without Judge, and fortunately, this winter’s free agent class and potential trade market make that very feasible.
(Top photo of Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Wendell Cruz / USA Today)
