This past weekend, two teams with several high-profile MLB Draft prospects squared off in Winston-Salem, N.C., for a three-game series. Below are notes from my trip to see Wake Forest host Duke:
Right-hander Chase Burns was a Friday night starter as a freshman for Tennessee, but the Vols moved him to the bullpen despite a strong performance to begin his sophomore year, so he left Knoxville, Tenn., to transfer to Wake Forest, where he’s now the Saturday starter — but also the best right-handed pitcher in this draft class. On Saturday, he put on a show against Duke, punching out 14 batters in a dominating six-inning outing.
GO DEEPER
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Burns always threw hard, ranking 37th on my draft board as a high school senior in 2021, but he’s taken it up another notch this year. He came out at 97-99 mph in the first inning and was 95-99 on the night, finally hitting 100 with his 98th and second-to-last pitch. The fastball really played, generating nine swings and misses, and he paired it with a plus-plus slider at 84-91 that was sharp with late, tight break, effective against left- and right-handed batters, with batters whiffing 14 more times on it. He gave up just two walks and two hits, one of which could easily have been caught, the other a solo homer on a fastball in the zone.
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There is effort to Burns’ delivery, even allowing for the fact that there will just about always be effort at that velocity. He comes from a very high three-quarters slot, with some head-snap and recoil at release. It hasn’t hurt his command and control so far in college, but it may be a factor for teams picking at the very top of the draft as they weigh their options and consider the durability of position players versus the risk of the best pitchers.
Sword of the Year. Reaction of the Year. 🤫
Career-high 14 K's for Mr. Burns. #MTFY | @ChaseBurns20 pic.twitter.com/gehylAD69H
— Wake Forest Baseball (@WakeBaseball) March 10, 2024
Highly anticipated Hartle vs. Santucci contest fizzles
Friday night’s matchup of potential first-rounders — Wake Forest’s Josh Hartle and Duke’s Jonathan Santucci — turned out to be a dud, as neither southpaw made it through four innings and both were unimpressive in stuff as well as results.
Hartle is supposed to be a command-and-control guy whose average-ish stuff plays up because he locates it well, but on Friday he located the Duke hitters’ barrels, giving up 11 hits in 3 2/3 innings, including a long homer on a backup slider that ended his night. Hartle was 88-91 mph with the fastball. He also had a slider around 83-85, a cutter just above that, and a changeup at 82-85, but none of his offerings were more than an average pitch and he doesn’t have much deception to the delivery. He was cutting himself off less in his landing than he has in the past, starting on the first base side of the rubber to get a little boost against lefties. This was Hartle’s worst outing of the year, and his first against a decent lineup, so he’s going to have to step it up to remain a potential first-round pick. I don’t see the out-pitch or the command he’d need to justify going that high given the other college starters in the class.
Santucci didn’t fare any better, only lasting 2 2/3 innings on 70 pitches, running deep counts his whole outing and eventually leaving a changeup on a tee for Wake center fielder Seaver King to hit to Mt. Airy. Santucci does have stuff, though, as he started out with the fastball at 94-95 and showed a plus changeup at 82-85 with an average slider around 81-83. He needed 31 pitches just to get through the first inning, and after that there were a lot of 91s and 92s, which was probably reason enough to get him out of the game, as he missed the last half of the 2023 spring and all of the summer with a fractured elbow.
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The changeup was somewhat new — in his first three starts this year he’d thrown 59 percent sliders and 41 percent fastballs, ditching the changeup entirely, although he’d thrown one last spring. His slider was nowhere near the out-pitch it was supposed to be, with some tilt but not much break or bite to it, and he continues to show better results against right-handed batters. A dubious called third strike gave him the only out he recorded against a left-handed batter on Friday.
It’s possible the damp conditions hurt both pitchers, and maybe that’s why Santucci didn’t seem to be able to spin a good slider or why he only threw 53 percent of his pitches for strikes. This wasn’t a great look for either starter with a dozen or more scouting directors and vice presidents in attendance.
Kurtz continues to walk his way on base
Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz did what he does best: he drew walks, two more on Friday night, with two strikeouts in an 0-for-3 night, and then walked twice more on Saturday with another strikeout in an 0-for-2 showing. He does have great bat speed and crushed a flyout to the center field warning track in the second game, the closest we got to seeing the power bat that hit 24 homers last year. After Sunday’s 0-for-3 with two more walks, Kurtz’s line for the year is now .220/.466/.380 through four weekends; it’s early going, but in a year with probably seven guys vying to be the first pick, he is going to have to produce more and soon.
King flashes tools, still needs refinement
Seaver King transferred to Wake Forest from Division II Wingate this year after a strong showing on Team USA last summer. On Friday, he hit his first ACC homer, a rocket on a bad changeup Santucci left up over the plate. (By the way, King is from Athens, Ga. How is he not a Georgia Bulldog? A future first-rounder in your own backyard ending up at a DII school is not a great look for a college coach.) King is very aggressive at the plate and is hunting fastballs, which led to some ugly swings on changeups before the one he hit out, while he’s an easy plus runner who has taken very quickly to center field after playing mostly in the infield at Wingate.
King’s feel for the game is clearly behind his raw skills, though. His offspeed pitch recognition isn’t great, as evidenced by some of those bad hacks where he was way out in front of changeups. He also showed very poor game awareness by trying to steal third base with two outs — something legendary Baltimore Orioles manager Earl Weaver preached against in the 1970s and that remains true today — while the Deacons were up five runs. King was ruled safe, may have been out, and either way gained nothing through the added base — he’s fast enough to score from second on any hit to the outfield — while risking erasing a runner from scoring position. It was a clear example of why he might not be a top-10 pick even though his tools are some of the best in the college class.
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Notes on Duke pitchers Healy and Oschell
Duke lefty Andrew Healy is draft-eligible this year as a sophomore, coming off a creditable freshman year where he walked just seven batters in 42 2/3 innings while making 11 starts and eight relief appearances. He has a cross-body delivery and is primarily a fastball-changeup pitcher, working 89-92 with a 55 changeup (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and two 45s in his mid-70s curveball and low-80s slider. He struggled with command on Saturday, with varying landing spots, often spinning off his front heel when he did plant his front leg. He could be something in this year’s draft if he gets back to throwing more strikes, although he’s still going to face questions about his ability to spin the ball.
Duke used right-hander Fran Oschell III in mop-up duty on Saturday. He and Healy went to rival high schools outside of Philadelphia and now are teammates in Durham, N.C. Oschell posted a 0.69 ERA last year in 39 innings working as a straight reliever, and this weekend he was 92-93 with a decent changeup and slider, fanning Kurtz on the latter and catching King looking on the former. It’s an ugly, high-effort delivery, though, and I would worry about him throwing strikes over the long haul even in a limited role.
(Top photo of Burns: Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images)
