The Orioles have the best collection of position-player prospects in baseball, thanks to several strong drafts under general manager Mike Elias and some shrewd trades, while for the first time since I started making these lists they have actual international free-agent talent in their top 20 as well. They’re still very light on the pitching side, with only three guys I would project as major-league starters — two inherited from the previous regime and one acquired via trade.
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MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system
The ranking
1. Gunnar Henderson, SS/3B (Top 100 ranking: No. 2)
Age (on July 1): 22 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 42 in 2019
Henderson has made incredible strides as a player even just in the past two years, from swing adjustments to physical development to going from a raw athlete on defense to a potentially elite glove at third base who can stay at shortstop too. The Orioles’ second-round pick in 2019, signed to a first-round bonus, Henderson performed better in High A than he did in Low A in 2021, moved up to Double A and hit better there than he had in High A, only slowing down when he reached Triple A last year at 21, hitting a measly .288/.390/.504 in half a season there. He’s simplified his swing since he was drafted, ditching the toe-tap and using his lower half more to generate power, resulting in a more fluid swing and better adjustments to different pitch types. He’s at least an average defender at short, more than good enough to stay at the position, but is at least a 70 defender at third, and could have a Scott Rolen-like upside if he ends up at the hot corner. Henderson has been much better against right-handed pitching, with a .208/.316/.354 line against lefties at all levels last year, although that’s not unusual for a young left-handed-hitting prospect, and there’s no reason to think he won’t improve with experience. Rolen’s a Hall of Famer, so I don’t throw that comparison around lightly, but Henderson looks like a 25+ homer, high OBP guy who spends fifteen years on the left side of an infield.
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2. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP (No. 15)
Age: 23| 6-5 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 11 in 2018
Rodriguez really should have seen the majors last year, but he strained his right latissimus dorsi (“lat”) muscle — an injury that is notorious for how long it takes to heal — in June, after which the Orioles shut him down for three months. He did return to pitch in September but Baltimore chose not to call him up for his debut, which I assume will come this April instead. When he did pitch, he was his usual self, sitting 95-96 mph, touching 99, with a plus changeup, two distinct breaking balls that are both average or slightly above, and even a cutter he threw a few times a game. The changeup is so good that it’s even his best pitch against right-handed batters, making up for the slider, which is his worst offering, with just average spin and break and not much velocity separation from the curveball. He could improve the slider given his incredible arm strength, but he also may not need the fourth pitch. I’ve heard more from scouts who view Rodriguez not as a No. 1 starter, but as a good No. 2 for a long time, especially since he has no history of arm trouble. It’s also possible that the fastball/change combo is so good that he ends up an ace even without a plus breaking pitch to go with them.
3. Jackson Holliday, SS (No. 19)
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 1 in 2022
Holliday is the son of longtime outfielder Matt Holliday, and entered the spring of 2022 as someone who might go in the back of the first round. He worked hard that offseason on gaining strength and adjusting his swing to drive the ball more, and after a big showing on his school’s trip to Arizona over spring break — it never hurts to travel where half the GMs in baseball are hanging out — he vaulted up into the top echelon of prospects, eventually going first to the Orioles. Holliday has a pretty left-handed swing that produces hard line-drive contact, and he’s shown advanced feel for the strike zone at a young age. It’s a tiny sample, but he walked more than he struck out in his pro debut — 10 walks to two whiffs in the complex league, then 15 walks and 10 strikeouts in Low A, even though he was still 18 and just three months out of high school. He has more doubles/gap power now, but as he fills out he’s going to put more balls over the fence, probably becoming a 20-25 homer guy at his peak. He’s a plus runner who shows plenty of range at shortstop with enough arm for the left side of the infield, but if he outgrows short or ends up lacking the footwork for it, he could move to center field. I caught Holliday at the end of 2022 when the Orioles promoted him to Low-A Delmarva, and the worst thing I can say about him is that he tried to do too much — I’m sure he’s so used to being the best player on the field that he tried to make plays when he should have deferred to other fielders. That’s barely a flaw, just a testament to how good he is at such a young age. I can see why the O’s wanted him with the first pick, and I won’t be surprised at all if we see him in High-A Aberdeen by the middle of this year.
4. Jordan Westburg, 3B/SS (No. 73)
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 203 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 30 in 2020
Westburg had about as quiet a season as you can have with 69 extra-base hits, moving through shortstop, second, and third base, drawing 70 walks, and hitting .265/.355/.496 between Double A and Triple A. He doesn’t have a clear plus tool, but makes plenty of hard contact and plays above-average defense at second or third, giving him a bunch of 55s on his scouting report that adds up to a solid to above-average regular because of where he plays. His power is probably his best tool, with the ability to drive the ball out to right-center and to his pull side, but he can over-rotate to get to it, which makes him less of a hitter and contributes to some of his inconsistency at the plate over a long season. He could be a 30-homer guy with a lower batting average, but will probably be most valuable as a .280-ish hitter with 20-25 homers, solid OBPs, and above-average defense at third or average defense at shortstop.
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5. DL Hall, LHP (No. 84)
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 21 in 2017
This is Hall’s fifth year on the top 100, and probably his last — either he breaks through and plays long enough in the majors to graduate, or he fails to make any progress in command and control and spends most of the year repeating Triple A. His stuff is too good to ignore, though. Hall is a hyper-athletic lefty who can show several plus pitches, with a fastball that topped out at 98.6 mph in the majors this year, a power curveball he rarely used in the big leagues, a hard slider with big horizontal break, and a straight change that’s very deceptive because it looks so much like his fastball out of his hand. His delivery is good and he could repeat it, but he doesn’t throw as many strikes as he should, or really as he could. When he’s ahead in the count, he works out of the strike zone way too often given the quality of his stuff. Between his huge extension out front, the way his breaking stuff and his fastball/change break out of his hand, and the genetic fortune of being left-handed, he should be a front-line starter who misses a ton of bats and holds down hard contact. It’s all about location for him now, and while he’s made some progress since he was drafted, this year will determine quite a bit about his future career path.
6. Joey Ortiz, SS (No. 95)
Age: 24 | 5-11 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 108 in 2019
Ortiz remade his swing and body during the pandemic year and came back a different hitter in 2021, but hurt his shoulder after just 35 very productive games in High A. He returned for Opening Day 2022 but struggled out of the gate, hitting .214/.275/.328 in the first half of his season (69 games), striking out three times as often as he walked. His second half was much more in line with the player we saw before his injury: he hit .355/.422/.627 in his last 68 games, the final 26 of them in Triple A, with just a 13.5 percent strikeout rate. He’s a 60 defender at short, with great actions and soft hands, possibly the best defender of the Orioles’ many, many shortstop prospects. At the plate, he’s short to the ball and hits a lot of line drives, although he puts the ball on the ground often enough that he’s much more likely to keep hitting for average than he is to hit 19 homers (his 2022 total) in the majors. He rarely whiffs, making contact on about five of every six swings, and doesn’t run a ton of deep counts because he can put enough pitches in play to avoid them. The second-half performance might point to an elite upside; I think the power won’t quite hold up, but he’ll hit for a high average with 30-40 doubles and 10 homers, which makes him a very good regular with that defense.
7. Colton Cowser, OF (Just-missed list)
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 5 in 2021
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Cowser was an under-slot pick at fifth overall in 2021, as the Orioles wanted to replicate their 2020 strategy of spreading some of their bonus pool around to later picks, going well over slot with John Rhodes (third round) and Creed Willems (eighth round). Neither of those two players has worked out so far, but Cowser looks like he’ll be as advertised — a very solid, reliable regular, maybe a 55, but perhaps not a star. Cowser has very good feel to hit, at least against right-handed pitching, as he hit .307/.432/.530 off them, but struggled against lefties with a 33 percent strikeout rate and just a .194/.329/.287 line on the season. He took off when he reached Double A in late June, moving to a slightly better ballpark for left-handed hitters, and didn’t stop hitting until he reached Triple A in September, where he was overmatched by offspeed stuff of all varieties.
8. Connor Norby, 2B/OF
Age: 23 | 5-10 | 187 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 41 in 2021
If the top 100 were more about players I just love to watch play, Norby would have been on it, easily. He can hit, he plays hard, and he seems like he’d knock over his own grandmother just to take an extra base. The Orioles’ second pick in 2021 raced through three levels last year, finishing in Triple A, hitting a shocking (to me, at least) 29 homers on the season. I don’t think he’ll have that kind of game power in the majors, but he might be a 20-homer guy who plays adequate defense at second and can move to the outfield corners, with strong batting averages and raves from teammates and coaches. He’s a solid regular, a “just missed the just missed list” guy, and someone I really believe strongly will succeed, even though I don’t see a high ceiling for him.
9. Dylan Beavers, OF
Age: 21 | 6-4 | 206 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 33 in 2022
Beavers was their second pick in the 2022 draft, No. 33, as a power-hitting center fielder who’s a great athlete but needs some swing maintenance to boost his contact rates. The Orioles have already started working with him to try to reduce the hitch in his swing, which I don’t think will hurt his power output, although it was still there when I saw him in late August in Delmarva. I do think he can stay in center and it’s 25+ homer power if he gets to it, with some small risk here around the hit tool because of that hand hitch.
10. Coby Mayo, 3B
Age: 21 | 6-5 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 103 in 2020
Mayo is 6-5 and takes a super wide stance at the plate, but hits more for average and OBP right now, without the big power (yet) you’d expect from him. He showed a good approach in High A but struggled with offspeed stuff in Double A, even in the strike zone, although at just 20 he was quite young for the level. He’s huge for a third baseman and I think he has to move to first or maybe right field in time, but regardless of position, it’ll come down to his ability to make contact even with some natural length to the swing. He’s younger than any of his peers in this system, though, so he has time and more room to project on the bat.
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11. Heston Kjerstad, OF
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 205 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 2 in 2020
Kjerstad was the second pick in the 2020 draft, then developed myocarditis as a complication of COVID-19 that summer and ended up missing all of 2021 as well. He tore a hamstring in spring of 2022, so his pro debut didn’t come until June, when the Orioles started him cautiously in Low A. He mashed there against terrible pitching but had trouble with better stuff in High A, hitting .233/.312/.362 for Aberdeen. His performance in the AFL was a mixed bag, as he hit for big power but struck out 30 percent of the time, even in a league with few good pitching prospects. I think a fair amount of this was rust from his time away from facing live pitching, but he was also a high-strikeout guy at Arkansas when the Orioles drafted him, so it’s not a complete surprise that he’d have some contact issues. I hold out a lot of hope that we’ll see the full version of him in 2023, now that he’s gotten back on the field and followed it with an offseason of rest. He could still be a solid-average regular in an outfield corner who hits 20ish homers with a lot of doubles but a low .300s OBP.
12. Jud Fabian, OF
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 67 in 2022
Fabian has at least 60 power and is at least a 60 defender in center, but the University of Florida alum had huge issues with sliders down and away and fastballs in the upper half of the zone in college, leading him to slide to the second round in 2021 (when Boston took him but he turned down over $2 million) and 2022, where the Orioles took him and paid him just over a million. I love the philosophy here of going for upside and hoping a different voice can help him tweak his approach; he looked a little more loose and free in Low A after he signed, although the real test will probably come in Double A, where he faces more pitchers who can locate their offspeed stuff. He has star-level tools, just with low probability.
13. Cade Povich, LHP
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 98 in 2021
Acquired in the Jorge López trade, Povich is a kitchen-sink lefty with five different pitches and plus control. He’s on the slender side and sits just 91 mph, touching 94, with a little less when working from the stretch. A lot of the hard contact he allowed came on the fastball, so he’s going to have pitch backwards if he can’t gain velocity at some point. He was much worse with men on base last year as well, which isn’t great if he has to move to relief, but right now I’d start him given the assortment of weapons, with the slider and cutter probably both 55s and the chance his command is good enough to keep him out of danger in the heart of the zone.
14. Max Wagner, 3B
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 42 in 2022
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Wagner came out of nowhere last spring as a draft-eligible sophomore at Clemson, going from 2 homers in 35 games as a freshman to 27 homers in 58 games, landing him in the second round. It’s power over hit, and he’s very pull-oriented, so there’s clear work to do at the plate, and scouts varied wildly around his defense. I thought he was below average at third and would end up in an outfield corner, which is probably true in this organization regardless, but there are scouts who thought he was better than average and could stay there. It’ll come down to the hit tool anyway.
15. Samuel Basallo, C
Age: 18 | 6-3 | 180 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2021
Basallo and shortstop Maikol Hernandez were the first two players to get seven-figure bonuses from the Orioles as international free agents … ever. Most teams would average one or more a year, but the Orioles hamstrung themselves for over a decade by sitting that market out. Mike Elias pledged to get the team back into the international free agent game, and he did, with Basallo the first early success story. He’s a big kid for a catcher at 6-3, but athletic enough to stay there with a plus arm, with some big whack from the left side but a noisy lower half that he might need to calm down to hit for more average and contact. He hit .279/.350/.424 in the FCL last year as a 17-year-old, with a solid 20.6 percent strikeout rate, which is an excellent start given his age and position. (Hernandez scuffled at the same level, with a 34 percent strikeout rate and .155/.280/.203 line. It happens.)
16. Seth Johnson, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 40 in 2019
Johnson came over from Tampa Bay in the three-team Trey Mancini trade, with the O’s acquiring him knowing he’d need Tommy John surgery. He probably won’t pitch again until instructs or 2024, unfortunately. A former infielder who converted to the mound in college at Campbell, Johnson was 92-95 mph not long before the trade with two curveballs, but had zero weapons for lefties, and I wrote last May I thought he’d end up in relief.
17. Frederick Bencosme, SS
Age: 20| 6-0 | 160 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2020
The Orioles signed Bencosme as an international free agent in August of 2020, when he was already 17, for almost no bonus, and all he’s done since is hit. He puts everything in play, with a lot of line drives, and just a 12.4 percent strikeout rate with nearly as many walks (27 to 31 Ks). He’s not very physical and shortstop might be a bit too much for him, but I think this kid can hit. Maybe he’s a utility infielder, maybe he ends up someone’s regular at second, but he has a knack for getting the bat to the ball that I wouldn’t downplay.
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18. Drew Rom, LHP
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 170 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 115 in 2018
Rom was the Orioles’ fourth-round pick in 2018 out of a Kentucky high school and reached Triple A last year, still working as a starter despite an arsenal of grade 45 or 50 pitches. He’s more control than command, and the fastball is so light, averaging less than 91 mph, that I have a hard time seeing him as a major-league starter, but his slider is good enough to get lefties out and he could be a solid bullpen guy who can handle some innings.
19. Carter Young, SS
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 180 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 497 in 2022
As a sophomore at Vanderbilt in 2021, Young had first-round buzz for the following year even with a high strikeout rate, but he collapsed as a junior, hitting .207/.327/.383 on the spring. The Orioles took him in the 17th round and paid him $1.325 million to bet on his upside. He had a shoulder problem early last spring that almost certainly hindered his hitting, and he’s only been a switch-hitter for three or four years, with right-handed being his natural side. He can stay at short and he at least has good ball-strike recognition. It’s a long shot, but absolutely one worth taking for Baltimore.
20. Braylin Tavera, OF
Age: 18| 6-2 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2022
The Orioles’ big signing in January 2022, Tavera broke the record set by Basallo with a $1.7 million bonus, the most Baltimore has ever given an international free agent. He’s a very projectable center fielder with a good shot at future power, showing some loop length to the swing from a big move back with his hands when he starts. He hit .243/.411/.319 in the DSL as a 17-year-old last year.
Others of note
Outfielder Hudson Haskin is tooled up and started to show more power last year in Double A, with 15 homers and 23 doubles in 109 games, although his swing decisions aren’t great and he has a bizarre, narrow setup that I think inhibits consistent hard contact … Right-hander Kade Strowd came back from the pandemic with much more velocity, sitting 95 and touching 98 with two above-average-or-better offspeed pitches, pitching extremely well as a one-inning reliever for High-A Aberdeen around a three-month stint on the IL; if healthy he could be a right-on-right weapon out of the major-league pen sometime this year … Right-hander Justin Armbruester has a stiff delivery with a big stab in the back, but it’s also quite deceptive and his 93-95 mph fastball really plays against right-handers, with a curve and slider but no real changeup; I think he’s a reliever but any sort of changeup would make him a potential bulk innings guy or fifth starter … Chayce McDermott came over in the Mancini deal as well; he’s a two-pitch right-hander who’s too wild to start and doesn’t have a weapon for left-handed batters … Silas Ardoin looks like a potential backup catcher, a plus catch-and-throw guy with some contact skills but no impact. His dad, Danny, played in parts of five seasons for five different teams.
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2023 impact
Henderson is on the Opening Day roster, somewhere, and it sounds like Grayson Rodriguez will be too. Ortiz isn’t far off from helping if the Orioles trade Jorge Mateo or tire of all the outs he makes at the plate. Hall would be in the rotation already if he threw more strikes. I expect Westburg, Norby, and Cowser all to debut this summer.
The fallen
Carter Baumler was an over-slot pick in 2020, using some of the savings from going under slot with Kjerstad, but he’s been unable to stay healthy, first undergoing Tommy John surgery in late 2020, then battling shoulder issues most of last year. He’s just 21 this year so there is time, but unfortunately he’s had no luck staying on the mound.
Sleeper
There are a lot of guys here with upside, even among the college draftees, but Basallo has the best chance to go from outside the top 100 to squarely on the list, thanks to his position and his present skill with the bat.
(Photo of Grayson Rodriguez: Brian Westerholt / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
