Three really good pitching prospects, three very good hitting prospects, and then a bit of a … let’s say a shelf, rather than a cliff, as there are plenty of potential middle relievers and extra outfielders in the system. They also have a couple of draft flops who are young enough that the new player development regime might still salvage something, although I value them here as if they’re org players. The arrow is pointing up, which is very good news even if it just means more players to trade to keep the big-league club contending.
GO DEEPER
MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system
The ranking
1. Andrew Painter, RHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 13)
Age (on July 1): 20| 6-7 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 13 in 2021
The Phillies took a high school pitcher with their first-round pick in 2021, the second time in a row they’d done so, and so far both of those prospects look very promising. Painter was the second of those two picks and he’s quickly become their best prospect, dominating at three levels as a 19-year-old last year with two plus pitches and a good chance he’ll end up with a third. He’s huge, 6-foot-7, listed at 215 but probably 10-15 pounds stronger than that already, and could just bully hitters with his fastball in Low A, where he started 2022. He’s already working at 94-97 mph over full starts and can reach 99 mph, coming from a high three-quarter slot that makes his two-plane curveball at 76-81 mph even more devastating. He also throws both pitches for strikes, even improving his control as he moved up the ladder — he walked just two of 109 hitters he faced in Double A, his lowest walk rate at any of the three levels where he pitched. He does have a changeup that projects to a 55 but he barely uses it, while he has a slider that is behind the curveball in effectiveness and isn’t as hard as it should be given his fastball velocity. Painter won’t even turn 20 until April, so he has a lot of time to continue developing, but also a lot of time to get hurt, unfortunately. His delivery is good and he repeats it well, but we’ve seen way too many guys like him get hurt on their way to the majors to ignore the possibility here. If your crystal ball says he’ll stay healthy, he’s a top-10 prospect in baseball, and might have a case to be in the top 6.
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2. Mick Abel, RHP (No. 77)
Age: 21 | 6-5 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 15 in 2020
Abel built up to 108 1/3 innings last year after throwing just 44 2/3 the year prior, cutting his walk rate even through a midseason promotion to Double A. He’s a big, strong righthander, 6-5 and probably 210-215 pounds, built like a workhorse starter, and extends well over his front side. He’s 93-98 mph, sitting more 94-95 mph, with a slurvy slider that’s an above-average pitch with good tilt, up to 85, although it could be plus if he can get more power to it. He has an upper 80s changeup that I didn’t love when I saw it, although it was moderately effective for him this year; he had a small platoon split, mostly in terms of power, giving up seven of the 11 homers he allowed this year to lefties. It’s going to come down to command more than anything, which is a little surprising as he’s always had a good delivery, even as a high school underclassman. He could be a good No. 3 starter if that improves and he gets a little more separation on the changeup.
3. Johan Rojas, OF (just missed top 100)
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
It’s 80 run and might be 80 defense in center when it’s all said and done, which gives Rojas time for the bat to catch up to the rest of his game. He looked totally overmatched early in the season in High A, then went on a little run in June where he hit better and cut his strikeouts, so the Phillies pushed him to Double A. He actually hit better at the higher level across the board, although he still needs to get on base more often (in general, and to make use of that speed) and gain some strength just to have better contact quality to get his average up. He has a great foundation to be a good regular if he can impact the ball just a little more. With the current contact quality, though, there’s a risk he’s a Billy Hamilton-type of player, someone who gets a lot of chances for his speed and defense but can never be a regular.
4. Hao Yu Lee, SS/2B
Age: 20 | 5-10 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021
Lee signed as a free agent in 2021 for just $570,000, and the Taiwanese infielder’s full-season debut last year opened a lot of eyes, as scouts raved about his natural feel for hitting and plate discipline. The Taipai native is very strong for his 5-foot-10 frame, hitting .284/.386/.438 as a 19-year-old last year, mostly for Low-A Clearwater. He played short, second, and third, with second base by far his most likely long-term position.
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5. Griff McGarry, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 145 in 2021
McGarry was so wild at UVA that the Cavaliers took him out of the rotation in his junior year, even though he had the best pure stuff on the staff, topping out at 98 mph with a hard, biting slider. The Phillies took him in the fifth round and helped him settle on a looser, freer delivery that made better use of his athleticism, and he took off, starting in High A and finishing with a quick stint in the Triple A bullpen. He has four pitches now, but his control is still below average, with walk rates over 12 percent at every level, including 9 walks in 8 innings at his last stop. He has the arsenal and delivery to be a starter, but he needs to throw both more strikes and better strikes to get there.
6. Justin Crawford, OF
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 17 in 2022
The Phillies’ first-round pick in 2022, and the son of outfielder Carl Crawford, Justin is an 80 runner with a good swing and a ton of physical projection. He has well below-average power right now, but could easily add 30-40 pounds of muscle to that frame to end up hitting for real power and becoming a five-tool guy with 30/30 upside.
7. Simón Muzziotti, OF
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
International signing in 2015 (Red Sox)
Muzziotti reached the majors last year, but knee and hamstring injuries limited him to just 46 minor-league games, and since 2019 he’s played less than half a season in total. He’s still a plus-plus runner who can play the heck out of center field, with an aggressive approach at the plate and a short, high-contact swing. He hit 5 homers in that brief time in 2022, more than he’d hit in his entire pro career to that point.
8. Emaarion Boyd, OF
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 177 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 332 in 2022
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The Phillies’ 11th-round pick in 2022, Boyd had a fractured wrist when he showed up after the draft but recovered enough to play eleven games before the season ended, going 13 for 36 with 8 steals and just 5 strikeouts. He’s a 70 runner who should end up plus in center, but he was supposed to be really raw as a hitter, from plate discipline to bat control, so the performance even in that tiny sample is intriguing.
9. Alex McFarlane, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 122 in 2022
McFarlane was the Phils’ fourth-rounder last year and pitched mostly in relief as an amateur at the University of Miami. He’s up to 96-97 mph from a lower slot, with a big vertical approach angle, and pairs it with a plus splitter. He was crushed by lefties in college, but he repeats the arm stroke and should be able to start if he improves his splitter to counteract the platoon disadvantage.
10. Gabriel Rincones Jr., OF
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 225 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 93 in 2022
Rincones didn’t play after signing as a third-rounder in July due to a shoulder injury, but he should be good to go for spring training. He’s a big power bat who has solid plate discipline but just average bat speed, and he might end up at first base, so there’s a lot of pressure on him to hit for some average.
11. Carlos de la Cruz, OF
Age: 23 | 6-8 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Signed in 2017 as an undrafted free agent
De la Cruz is an all-or-nothing prospect, all 6-foot-8 of him: He makes really hard contact, and he’s going to be a 25-30 homer guy if he hits enough to get to it … but right now he’s not close to that point, punching out in nearly 30 percent of his plate appearances with a K/BB ratio over 4. He has a clean swing but a huge strike zone and a big tendency to chase. He’s a good enough athlete to end up a solid-average or better defender in a corner. It’ll just come down to contact.
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12. William Bergolla, SS
Age: 18 | 5-11 | 165 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
International signing in 2022
The Phillies signed Bergolla for a $2.05 million bonus last January, and the Venezuelan shortstop’s pro debut was brief but very successful, as he hit .380/.470/.423 in the Dominican Summer League with 11 walks and just 3 whiffs in 83 plate appearances. He’s more skills than tools, with a very simple swing that he repeats well but doesn’t use his lower half that much, so it should produce a lot of contact without power.
13. Christian McGowan, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 205 in 2021
McGowan made just two starts in 2022 before tearing his UCL, requiring Tommy John surgery, which is a shame as he looked like he might be a breakout guy for the Phillies. When healthy, he’s up to 97 mph with a good changeup, cutting and sinking the fastball, with enough of a slider to see him as a starter. I’m hoping we’ll see him back in games before the season is out.
14. Andrew Baker, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 325 in 2021
Baker’s a pure reliever but he’s been up to 102 mph with a hammer slider up to 90 mph, and he kept improving as the season progressed. In his seven Double-A appearances, hitters whiffed on his slider almost 3/4 of the time they swung at it. He’s just a one-inning guy but could help the big-league club this year.
15. Rickardo Perez, C
Age: 19 | 5-10 | 172 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021
Perez is a bat-first catcher who had 29 hits in 83 at-bats in the Florida Complex League last year, 27 of them singles, and since he drew just 7 walks he had the peculiar line of .349/.387/.398. He hits the ball on the ground a ton, explaining the lack of power, although he should be strong enough to drive the ball with a better angle. He’s a work in progress behind the plate, but there’s no real talk of him having to move off the position.
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16. Orion Kerkering, RHP
Age: 22 | 6-2 | 204 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 152 in 2022
Kerkering has a 70 slider with huge spin rates and struck out 30 percent of batters he faced last spring for the University of South Florida, but his fastball is very flat and gets hit hard, which probably points to a bullpen future. He has the durability to start and could be better suited to long relief or a swing role.
17. Tommy McCollum, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-5 | 260 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Undrafted free agent signing in 2021
McCollum was off to a great start in the Florida State League, with a 44 percent strikeout rate in 31 innings of relief, when he sprained his ankle fielding a ball on June 30th, ending his season. He’s 6-5, 260 pounds, up to 98 mph with carry and an out pitch in his splitter. The Phils signed him in 2021 as an undrafted free agent out of Division II Wingate University, and if healthy this spring he’s a candidate to move quickly.
18. Jaydenn Estanista, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-3 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2019
Estanista, who hails from Curaçao, had the misfortune to sign in November 2019 as a free agent, so he didn’t make his pro debut until 2021. He is a loose-armed, athletic right-hander with arm strength, touching 98 mph in the FCL last summer. He’s a deep projection guy, along with 18-year-old Enrique Segura, who doesn’t throw quite that hard but also has a starter’s build and loose arm. Estanista should hit Low A this year, while Segura should come to the FCL.
19. Jordan Viars, OF
Age: 19 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 84 in 2021
Viars was the team’s second pick, their third-round selection, in 2021, and his 2022 season was delayed by a badly sprained ankle followed by a case of turf toe. He’s a corner outfielder who could end up at first base, with power projection that’s all in the future, showing some feel for the barrel now but no production yet — although it’s hard to make quality contact if your legs aren’t 100 percent.
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20. Ethan Wilson, OF
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 49 in 2021
Wilson had a lousy year between High A and Double A, but he hasn’t gotten back to the approach that made him successful as a college underclassman; he hit 17 homers as a freshman for South Alabama but hit just 8 in all of 2022 in 130 games. He shortened up his swing to try to make more contact, but the contact he’s making now is soft. I think that power is still in there if he undoes the swing changes.
Others of note
Shortstop Casey Martin is a plus runner and plus defender with a 20 hit tool right now, swinging at all the wrong pitches in all the wrong locations. I’d write him off if he weren’t such a good athlete … Right-hander Hans Crouse threw just 12 innings in 2022 due to bicep and shoulder injuries, and when he did pitch he was a shell of his old self, sitting 90-91 mph. He was outrighted off the 40-man, but could still resurface if he gets healthy after an offseason of rest … Right-hander Noah Skirrow gets some chases and bad swings on a mid-80s slider and throws enough strikes that he could be a long man, although a 45 fastball makes that his ceiling.
2023 impact
This team isn’t built to have opportunities for rookies, but they could get some bullpen help from Baker or McGarry, the latter of whom could get a spot start here or there. Muzziotti could be an extra outfielder for them, although he needs regular at-bats.
The fallen
Francisco Morales still has one of the best sliders in the entire organization, but he has never thrown enough strikes, even to project as a reliever, walking 45 in 51 innings last year in Double A and Triple A. The Phillies outrighted him off the 40-man this offseason.
Sleeper
Lee is already a top 125-ish prospect, and a full year of similar production from him in Jersey Shore would put him squarely on the top 100.
(Top photo of Andrew Painter: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
