What a difference a year makes — the Juan Soto trade added three of their top 6 prospects, and they added one of the highest-ceiling guys in the 2022 draft class in Elijah Green. This was the worst system a year ago, and had been near the bottom for a while for a bunch of reasons, from some draft misses to some busts on the international side (after Soto, who makes up for a lot of other guys) to trades while the team was still contending.
GO DEEPER
MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system
The ranking
1. James Wood, OF (Top 100 ranking: No. 16)
Age (on July 1): 20 | 6-7 | 240 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 62 in 2021
Wood has done nothing but hit in pro ball since the Padres took him in the second round in 2021 and paid him a high first-round bonus to draw him away from Mississippi State. He’s since gone to the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade, playing 21 games for Low-A Fredericksburg before an injury ended his season, but his total pro line between the Arizona Complex League and two Low-A teams sits at .326/.430/.536 with a 14 percent walk rate and 24 percent strikeout rate. Wood is an exceptional athlete, a plus-plus runner even at 240-plus pounds who glides to catch balls in center field, and he can show 70 raw power, although that hasn’t manifested as much yet in games. He’s also shown a much better approach in pro ball than he did as an amateur, which of course is part of why he went in the second round despite several 70s on his scouting report. He does have some swing-and-miss in his game and his swing can get long, which is hardly surprising for a 6-7 hitter — I’ve written in a few places about the high risk of position players that tall. I do think he’s going to struggle more with contact as he moves up the ladder, but he has the power, speed, and defense to succeed even with a strikeout rate over 25 percent, and with the patience he’s already shown he may find a way to keep his contact rate up and become a 30/30 guy with a .350 OBP.
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2. Elijah Green, OF (No. 35)
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 225 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 5 in 2022
Green was the fifth pick in the 2022 draft out of IMG Academy, which also produced fellow Nats farmhand James Wood (further up this list). Green and Wood are both very toolsy, athletic outfielders with unusual strength and size for their ages, although Green isn’t as tall as Wood and has more of a football body — unsurprising, since his dad, Eric Green, was a first-round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers and played 10 years in the NFL. Elijah has plus power already that projects to grade 70, with tremendous hand acceleration and loud contact when he gets his arms extended. As a result, his power comes on pitches middle and away, while he shows lower-impact contact on pitches on the inner third. He does have some swing-and-miss even in the zone on fastballs in the upper half and he’ll chase breaking stuff down and away. He’s a 70 runner and plus defender in center with a very strong arm, and might have gotten more attention for his range and reads if he hadn’t had the misfortune to be in the same draft class as the son of Andruw Jones. There’s risk here in the bat, but it’s an unusual power/speed combo in a center fielder … so unusual that the Nats have two prospects who fit that description.
3. Robert Hassell, OF (No. 43)
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 8 in 2020
Hassell was part of the return for Juan Soto, which included three prospects from last year’s top 100 (Hassell, C.J. Abrams, and Mackenzie Gore) and two on this year’s (Hassell again, and James Wood). Hassell was the outlier out of the five — right-hander Jarlin Susana, who can hit 102 mph as a starter, was the fifth — in that he’s a high-floor, lower-ceiling guy, without superstar upside but with a very good chance to be a solid regular for a long time. Hassell, who was the Padres’ first-round pick in the 2020 draft, is a hitter first who might come into average power down the road, working with a short swing and excellent hand acceleration. He lets the ball travel on him so he has more time to recognize pitches, and if he gains some strength he could be a 30-doubles, 15-homers guy, although contact and getting on base will always be his predominant skills as a hitter. He’s an above-average runner who’s been a high-percentage base stealer in his two years in the minors (87 percent) and plays 55 defense in center. He reached Double A after the trade at age 20, and there’s physical development still ahead of him. If he makes somewhat harder contact as he gets stronger, he’ll be a solid regular thanks to high averages and his secondary skills on the bases and in center. I’m not sure there’s a real path for him to be a star, though, given his frame and the quality of the contact he’s making now.
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4. Cade Cavalli, RHP (No. 71)
Age: 24 | 6-4 | 240 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 22 in 2020
Cavalli has a lot of things you like — he is big and strong, pretty athletic for his size, and he has a great arm, like, a Great Arm, with easy plus velocity and a full complement of pitches — and some you don’t, like his location and pitch sequencing. The Nats’ first-rounder out of the University of Oklahoma in 2020, Cavalli out-stuffed hitters all the way up to Triple A in his first full pro season, then returned to that level in 2021 and made some real improvements. He deemphasized the fastball in favor of all three offspeed pitches, especially the curveball, which is the one pitch with spin-based direction that differs from the other three, and used the changeup more as a weapon against left-handed batters. His slider has power to it but its break is short in both directions, so it can look more like a big cutter. He had that one unfortunate big-league start where he had trouble with the curve — he just couldn’t land it as well as usual, and he missed up with his fastball a few times, leading to some hard contact. Right before his second scheduled start, his shoulder barked and he went on the IL with inflammation, ending his season, although he’s supposed to be ready to go for spring training. It has always been about command with Cavalli, and now it’s even a little bit about control, as he still walked nearly 10 percent of batters in Triple A last year. You can be a big-league starter with a couple of 60s in your arsenal and 45 command and control, but it’s not really the career path I recommend.
5. Brady House, SS (No. 85)
Age: 20 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 11 in 2021
House got off to a roaring start in 2022, hitting .326/.408/.449 with a 25 percent strikeout rate as a 19-year-old in Low A, even though he had just 19 pro games under his belt before the season, but then his back started to give him trouble and he went on the injured list for the first time. He came back for a month but wasn’t the same hitter, as he struck out 33 times with two walks and just four extra-base hits in 100 PA, after which his season ended, on June 11, due to the back injury. House only played shortstop in his limited time on the field in 2022, although it remains extremely unlikely he’ll stay at the position as he’s already too big for it and will need work over at third base to stay on the dirt. When healthy, House posts extremely high exit velocities and has 35-40 homer upside, but already showed swing-and-miss tendencies. He did return for instructs and is expected to be ready to go for spring training, but at this point we don’t know a whole lot more than we did a year ago. He has enormous upside, probably not at shortstop, but needs reps to develop as a hitter and to find a position.
6. Jarlin Susana, RHP
Age: 19 | 6-6 | 235 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing 2022
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Susana was one of the five players the Nats received in the Juan Soto trade, the furthest from the majors and the one with the widest variance. He’s 98-102 mph with an above-average changeup and average breaking ball, coming hard from a 6-6 frame with good extension. He finished the year at Low-A Fredericksburg and should return there, as he won’t turn 19 until March. He could be a No. 1 starter, an elite closer, or a guy who can’t get out of Double A because of command and control.
7. Cole Henry, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 55 in 2020
Henry was on track to debut in the majors last summer when he had surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome, ending his season after nine starts. He’s a command guy with stuff, sitting 93-95 with a plus changeup, working north-south and east-west with his fastball, with four pitches in total. He’s also had a lot of injury issues, making 20 starts in total since the Nats took him in the second round in 2020, and not everyone makes it back the same from TOS surgery so we very much have to see where his stuff is when he returns this spring. He had No. 2 starter upside before thanks to the stuff and command.
8. Cristhian Vaquero, OF
Age: 18 | 6-3 | 180 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2021
The Nats gave Vaquero a $4.925 million bonus last January, when the Cuban outfielder was 17 and change, because he’s nicknamed “The Phenomenon.” OK, that might not be the real reason, but he’s a toolshed, a 70 runner with a plus arm who can really play center and has loose, powerful swings from both sides of the plate. He’s 6-3 and still lanky, with a ton of room to fill out, but length to both swings, with his natural right-handed swing slightly better than his left-handed one. He could be a better version of Luis Robert if it all clicks, or just another guy who never figures out how to convert his tools into actual hitting.
9. Jeremy de la Rosa, OF
Age: 21| 6-0 | 199 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: International signing in 2018
De la Rosa repeated Low A to start the year and improved across the board, hitting .315/.394/.505 and cutting his strikeout rate from 35 percent to 25 percent, but scuffled badly after a July promotion to Wilmington after he broke a hamate bone in his first game there, playing through it for five weeks before the Nats shut him down. He’s a plus defender in center with an easy swing and growing power that should end up in the 18-22 homer range. If the improved approach he showed as a repeater in Fredericksburg carries forward, he’s a likely everyday guy due to the power and defense.
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10. Jake Bennett, LHP
Age: 22 | 6-6 | 234 pounds
Bats: Left| Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 45 in 2022
Bennett, the Nats’ second-round pick in 2022, is a strike-throwing lefty who’s more of a changeup guy, working with a 55 change and 55 fastball but fringy breaker, so he’s more effective against right-handers than lefties. As is, he’s a back-end starter but someone who should at least see Double A this year. If the Nats can help him find a better breaking pitch to get lefties out, he would project to the middle of a good rotation rather than the very back of one.
11. Jake Irvin, RHP
Age: 26 | 6-6 | 225 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 131 in 2018
Irvin returned from Tommy John surgery to pitch in games for the first time since 2019, showing big power stuff but below-average command and the same problematic arm action that made the original injury somewhat less than surprising. He was 93-96 with a power curveball in the low 80s and fringy changeup when I saw him, with a slider also in his repertoire, dominating High A combination but giving up harder contact in Double A. I think the delivery and command mean a bullpen future, but the Nats are starting him and he did hold up for a full workload in 2022.
12. Jackson Rutledge, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-8 | 243 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 17 in 2019
The Nats took Rutledge out of a Texas junior college in the first round in 2019 because he’s big and throws very hard, but his 2021 season was marred by injuries and poor performance. The Nats returned him to Low A for 2021 and had him add a two-seamer to his repertoire to try to avoid the hard contact he was giving up on his four-seamer, although he still needs any weapon to get lefties out (.311/.395/.432 in 2022). He’s 6-8, 250-something, and can hold his velocity, so I understand the desire to start him, but he may not have the third pitch or fastball life to do it.
13. Armando Cruz, SS
Age: 19| 5-10 | 160 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2021
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Before Vaquero, Cruz and Yasel Antuna had received the largest bonuses the Nats ever gave to an international free agent at $3.9 million apiece. Cruz differs from most high-bonus IFAs because he’s not that toolsy but shows some present skill, especially at shortstop, where he’s a 55 defender and might end up a 60, with good lateral range and solid actions. He has to get a lot stronger, though, as he doesn’t make hard enough contact to sustain his average at the higher levels, and only walked 5 percent of the time in the GCL last year. He just turned 19 in January, though, so he has a lot of time for physical and skills growth.
14. Andry Lara, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-4 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2019
Lara stayed healthy in his first year in full-season ball, striking out 23 percent of batters but giving up better contact than he should with his stuff, sitting mid-90s with a solid-average breaking ball. He has to improve the changeup and the fastball command, but he’s also barely 20 and came into last season with just 48 innings, so there’s still significant upside here.
15. Roismar Quintana, OF
Age: 20 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2019
The good news here is that Quintana played a full summer in the FCL after two hamstring tears limited him to seven games there in 2021. He also showed some thump at the plate, with 10 doubles and 5 homers in 50 games, but his swing decisions need a lot of work — he walked just 9 times against 46 whiffs, although it’s more than just a matter of balls and strikes but when to swing at strikes. He’s a solid-average runner who should stay in a corner, although he could end up at first base.
16. Jeter Downs, SS
Age: 24 | 5-11 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 32 in 2017
The Nats claimed Downs off waivers from the Red Sox this winter, marking a shocking fall for the former top-100 prospect who was traded twice before, including going from the Dodgers to Boston in the Mookie Betts deal. The Sox jumped Downs from High A to Triple A after the lost pandemic year, and he hasn’t been the same hitter since; he hit .193/.292/.368 in 180 games at the higher level over the last two seasons with a 31 percent strikeout rate, appalling for a guy who was a hitter first and foremost prior to the move to Triple A and never struck out more than 20.3 percent in any year before that. He did become way more pull-happy the last two years, and maybe that’s the reason for the implosion. It made a ton of sense for the Nats to claim him, seeing if a change of scenery and perhaps a reboot of the swing get him back on track.
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17. Daylen Lile, OF
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 47 in 2021
The Nats’ second pick in the 2021 draft missed all of this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March, but he’ll be ready to go this year and should end up in Fredericksburg in an outfield that might include him, Green, and 2022 fourth-rounder Brenner Cox. He was always likely to end up in left field anyway, lacking arm strength before the surgery, although he did run better than expected last spring before he got hurt. It’s hit over power right now but he could hit for more power given his present strength.
18. TJ White, OF
Age: 19 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 143 in 2021
White was the Nats’ fifth-rounder in 2021 as a switch-hitting corner outfielder with plus power from a furious swing and a dubious approach, so his year as an 18-year-old in Low A was promising, with a .258/.353/.432 line, a 27 percent strikeout rate and an 11.5 percent walk rate. For a guy who could easily have been a high school senior, this is a pretty good year, although he does have to keep hitting as he moves up. He may also end up sliding to first base given the Nats’ other outfield depth.
19. Jake Alu, IF
Age: 26 | 5-10 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left| Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 723 in 2019
Alu had an incredible year in 2022, hitting .299/.365/.506 between Double A and Triple A, doubling his career high in homers, while playing mostly third base with a little bit at second. The Nats don’t have entrenched starters at either position, and Alu could end up with a lot of at bats this year with his mix of a little power and a little patience.
20. Jose Ferrer, LHP
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: International signing in 2017
Ferrer sits 95-96 with a tight slider and throws a ton of strikes; he’s strictly a one-inning reliever but he should see the majors this year and has some upside in relief because he can get left- and right-handed hitters out, although I liked him better as Cyrano.
Others of note
Their 2022 third-rounder, Trey Lipscomb, is a patient hitter with above-average power, needing a better two-strike approach, and he’ll be 23 this year, so he does need to hit right away in High A … Right-hander Gerardo Carrillo was part of the Trea Turner/Max Scherzer trade and would have reached the majors last year except an injury kept him out for three months, after which he still wasn’t right, pitching more at 90-94 than his usual upper 90s. … Fifth-rounder Jared McKenzie is a true center fielder and 55 runner, but he swings at way too many pitches and doesn’t hit lefties at all. … Right-hander Zach Brzykcy sits 94-96 with a lot of vertical movement, throwing the pitch about 70 percent of the time, and if he found another half grade of control he’d be a good candidate for leveraged relief work … Fourth-rounder Brenner Cox is a plus runner and former quarterback who can handle center field and shows some power already as a high school product, but he’s got a big hitch in his swing and punched out in a third of his plate appearances in his brief pro debut … The Nats signed shortstop Leonel Valera as a minor league free agent; the 22-year-old punched out in a third of his plate appearances last year in Double A, but he’s a plus runner (33/34 on the bases) with some pop and a decent swing. He mostly hunts fastballs but is young enough that it’s worth a shot to see if they can get him anywhere in picking up offspeed stuff … Third baseman José Sánchez was off to a solid start in High A, hitting .273/.361/.366 through the end of June, but hurt his wrist around that point and slumped the rest of the way, finishing the season 0 for his last 27. He has very good contact skills without power when healthy and might just be a tweener … Their 19th-round pick in 2022, Johnathan Thomas is an 80 runner who should be able to stay in center, but barely played in three years at the University of Houston before transferring to the HBCU Texas Southern last spring, where he hit .345/.442/.610 as a 22-year-old in his first real playing time … Right-hander Aldo Ramirez came over in the Kyle Schwarber trade in 2021, but the elbow problems that bothered him multiple times that year cost him all of 2022 after Tommy John surgery. He has a solid three-pitch mix but his arm is very late relative to his leg, which can impact arm health and command … Darren Baker, Dusty’s kid, is a 70 runner with contact skills but no juice and fringy defense at second. He could end up in the big leagues as a pinch runner and might be able to handle center … They picked up right-hander Thad Ward from Boston in the Rule 5 draft; he came back from Tommy John surgery with slightly reduced stuff, lacking a real out pitch when he pitched in the AFL. Prior to the surgery, his slider was his best pitch and he showed above-average control.
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2023 impact
Cavalli should be in their rotation most of this season if healthy. Henry isn’t far off if he comes back with the same stuff. Ferrer could easily make this team in a fair fight out of camp. I’d love to see Alu make the roster as an extra infielder.
The fallen
Yasel Antuna got that record $3.9 million bonus that Vaquero broke, but numerous injuries and a move to left field have pretty much killed his status as a prospect; all he can do is draw walks, making weak contact otherwise with no defensive value.
Sleeper
Vaquero should go to Low-A Fredericksburg this year and we’ll see if those enormous tools translate to good contact and justify the nickname.
(Photo of Elijah Green: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP)
