Boston’s group of position-player prospects is probably in the upper half of farm systems, but its group of pitching prospects is one of the weakest. The Red Sox might not have a future MLB starter anywhere on their full-season rosters; the best of those candidates all have huge reliever risk, at least. They lost one guy from their top-100 group last year, as Nick Yorke, their shocking first-round pick in 2020, hit just .232/.302/.365 in High A. He’ll turn 21 in April, though, and has time to recover.
GO DEEPER
MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system
The ranking
1. Marcelo Mayer, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 11)
Age: 20 (as of 7/1/2023) | 6-3 | 188 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 4 in 2021
Mayer had a tough full-season debut in 2022, as he missed a month with a sprained wrist in the first half and struggled to drive the ball for four or five weeks after he returned, and then fought through some back tightness in July that may also have hurt his power. (I saw him twice, once when he first tried to come back from the wrist sprain and wasn’t ready, and the other in the game when his back tightened up on him. Perhaps I should never try to see him again.) The good news is despite the injury troubles, he still showed an extremely advanced approach at the plate, even when he wasn’t at full strength, and finished strongly in Low A and after an early August promotion to High A, hitting .287/.435/.492 from July 1 through the end of the season. Mayer has a smooth left-handed swing that should get him to plus power when he fills out, with loft in his finish and evident hand strength already. I haven’t seen great bat speed from him, bearing in mind I am putting a rare Sicilian curse on him any time I’m in the ballpark, and he might be a high-OBP, 25+ homer guy who doesn’t hit for high averages if that’s the case. He’s a no-doubt shortstop with great actions and quick hands — at least, when I haven’t graced him with my presence and caused his vestigial organs to turn necrotic mid-play — and a plus arm. I know I haven’t seen his best, and I take responsibility for my actions. I still think he’s going to be a star.
2. Ceddanne Rafaela, OF (No. 37)
Age: 22 | 5-8 | 152 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2017
Rafaela is one of the smallest players on this ranking, listed at 5-8, 152 pounds, and that’s not that far off from reality, but he was the big breakout guy in Boston’s system this year after he started driving the ball a lot more often and emerged as a potential 70 or 80 defender in center. Rafaela, who was born in Curaçao, swings first and asks questions later, with a very fast bat and excellent bat control that helps him make contact even on pitches out of the zone, although it also leads to a lot of weaker contact on those same pitches. He doesn’t miss fastballs and actually hangs in there (pun intended) well on curveballs, but given how high he starts his hands, he doesn’t always have time to adjust on other pitches, and he’s going to have to start to pick them up sooner out of pitchers’ hands. His defense is elite and he’s a 70 runner as well, so he doesn’t have to hit that much to be a solid big leaguer, and he could be an above-average regular as a low-OBP, 20+ homer guy. The hope is that he improves the choices he’s making as a hitter and that he recognizes pitch types sooner with experience and reduces some of that chase to give himself a chance to be a high-average hitter and potential star on both sides of the ball.
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3. Triston Casas, 1B (No. 40)
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 252 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 26 in 2018
Casas is a boring prospect, but not in a bad way; he projects as an above-average or better regular at first base and he’s ready to take over in Fenway right now, but he doesn’t have a huge tool, no 80 power or elite defense and definitely not big speed. He’s patient, disciplined, and has very good feel to hit, with hard contact that so far has produced a ton of doubles although there’s no real reason to think he can’t put more of those balls over the fence. Casas is big and very strong; his swing makes excellent use of his upper and lower half as he rotates his hips to get more power from his legs. Boston tried him at third base but let’s just pretend that never happened. He’s a first baseman who rakes, and should be the traditional slugger for that position, hitting for some average with a ton of walks and either 40-odd doubles or 25-plus homers.
4. Miguel Bleis, OF (No. 72)
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021
Bleis is still growing into his frame, but shows exceptional ability to handle the bat, with the potential for huge power and lots of hard contact, and has a chance for every tool to end up above-average. He’s an outstanding athlete who could stay in center depending on how he fills out and whether he stays an above-average runner. Right now he’ll show big raw power, less in games, but it’s clearly coming once he gets stronger and perhaps if he cuts down on some of the extra hand movement he has before he gets the barrel moving toward the zone. He needs to be more selective at the plate, with a little more swing and miss and a little less ball/strike recognition than you’d like, but it also comes with enormous upside. He actually would be a perfect guy for short-season ball this year if that still existed, and I won’t be shocked or too dismayed if he struggles early in Low A as an inexperienced 19-year-old. The high-average/25-homer upside is still there.
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5. Bryan Mata, RHP
Age: 24| 6-3 | 238 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2016
Mata returned after missing 2021 due to Tommy John surgery for his first game action in nearly three years, and he was pretty much the same guy: 94-98 mph without much life from a low 3/4 slot, with potential pluses in the hard-sweeping slider and late-tailing changeup, either of which can get up to 90 mph. I didn’t like his arm action before the injury because I thought it would inhibit him from holding up as a starter, which is still true, but his fastball also really plays down from its velocity. I think the Red Sox should try him as a starter, maybe giving him another 10 starts or so in Triple A to get more control back with time, but I would bet on him being a power reliever rather than something more than a back-end rotation guy.
6. Nick Yorke, 2B
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left/Right | Throws: Left/Right
Drafted: No. 17 in 2020
Yorke was on the top 100 last year after a huge breakout season in 2021 where he hit .325/.412/.516 between Low and High A, mostly the former, with a very pretty right-handed swing that produced a lot of solid line-drive contact. His 2022 was a dud, unfortunately, as he returned to High A and hit just .231/.303/.365 with lower-quality contact than he had the year before. He did fight through some minor injuries, albeit nothing too significant to explain the drop in production. He’s a fringy defender at second with a below-average arm, so he has to hit. He’ll be 21 this year and still has that same swing that led the Red Sox to take him in the first round in the pandemic draft. I’m just a lot more skeptical now than I was a year ago, even with his nice run in the AFL after the 2022 season.
7. Mikey Romero, SS
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 24 in 2022
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Romero was Boston’s first-round pick in 2022, No. 24, as a polished high school hitter who projected to stay at shortstop and showed good feel for the strike zone. He started to show a little more power last spring, which would give him some more upside beyond that of a solid regular. He’s a high-floor guy for a teenage prospect, due to his defense and the approach we saw from him as an amateur, but whether he has any ceiling beyond solid regular probably depends on his ability to hit for more than fringy power.
8. Matt Lugo, SS/3B
Age: 22 | 6-1 | 187 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 69 in 2019
Lugo was my sleeper prospect for the Red Sox last year, and he did take a solid step forward, going from a .364 slugging percentage in 2021 to .492 last year, even with a move up one level to High A. He’s still mostly playing shortstop, but third base is much more likely, even before we consider the presence of Mayer and Romero in the system. He looks now like a regular who hits 20-plus homers but with OBPs in the low .300s thanks to his 7-8 percent walk rates to date.
9. Brandon Walter, LHP
Age: 26 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 797 in 2019
Walter was a senior signed out of the University of Delaware in 2019, drafted in the 26th round even though he’d only just come back from Tommy John surgery that spring. His $35,000 bonus looks criminally low now that he’s on the cusp of the majors, although his 2022 season was slowed by a neck injury. He throws a ton of strikes, nearly 70 percent of his pitches last year, with a fringe-average fastball, plus slider, and average changeup, but his low arm slot gives right-handers a longer look at the ball and the delivery would seem to put some stress on his shoulder (or neck, I guess). He has a chance to be a back-end starter as a finesse lefty, but it’s slightly more likely he’ll end up a reliever.
10. Blaze Jordan, 3B/1B
Age: 20 | 6-2 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 89 in 2020
Jordan was the team’s third-round pick in 2020, taking an over-slot bonus as a young high school senior who would put on a big power show in BP but didn’t bring it over to games. That’s more or less what he’s been so far in the minors, with high contact rates but less of the big-fly power he’d show in workouts. He hit .289/.363/.445 last year between both A-ball levels, with just an 18 percent strikeout rate and good contact quality, including 30 doubles. He did make adjustments well during the season after a slow start where he struggled with offspeed pitches, and he’ll be just 20 this year, although I would like to see him do this again against better stuff.
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11. Chris Murphy, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 197 in 2019
If Murphy could just throw more strikes — seems simple enough, no? — he’d be a fourth starter. He’ll sit 92-93 mph with a plus changeup and two good-enough breaking balls, getting right-handers out with the change and getting by against lefties because he’s left-handed, but he walked 72 men in 152 innings last year and didn’t throw any of his pitches for strikes often enough to call it a fluke. He’s something, maybe a long reliever, maybe a one-inning guy who picks up a little velo, maybe a guy who figures it out as a starter much later, but he’s a good prospect to have in your system when you need arms.
12. Roman Anthony, OF
Age: 18 | 6-3 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 79 in 2022
Anthony was Boston’s second-round pick in 2022 out of a Florida high school, a power-hitting outfielder with a great baseball body but questions about his pitch recognition and ability to get to velocity inside. He had a great if brief pro debut, going 15-for-35 with just 4 strikeouts in the GCL before a promotion to Low A, which is far more contact than I would have guessed for him before the draft. If he’s that much more advanced a hitter than the industry thought, the Red Sox got a steal.
13. Eddinson Paulino, All
Age: 20 | 5-10 | 155 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018
Paulino played five different positions last year, second, third, short, center, and left, taking advantage of his speed and his athleticism. The 5-10 native of the Dominican Republic is still very slight but has filled out a little bit for some more extra-base power, leading the Low-A Carolina League in doubles and triples while tying for 10th in homers. He has a solid approach at the plate with good pitch recognition for his age, while he will certainly play some skill position, possibly even shortstop.
14. Brainer Bonaci, SS
Age: 20 | 5-10 | 164 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018
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Bonaci drew 89 walks against the same number of strikeouts last year as a 19-year-old in Low A, with a passive approach paired with good ball/strike recognition. He’s a switch-hitter who did more damage right-handed but drew far more walks left-handed, which could be compensating for his lack of impact from that side. He can play shortstop but moved around the infield with Mayer there. He needs to show he can do more from the left side than just draw walks to get to his upside as a potential above-average regular at short or second.
15. Wikelman Gonzalez, RHP
Age: 21 | 6-0 | 167 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2018
Gonzalez is a six-foot righty who’s up to 97, sitting more 94ish, with a 55 curveball and fringy changeup, struggling with lefties last year but also with strikes for much of the season. He did finish strongly, though, with 10 walks and 39 strikeouts in 33 innings over his last seven starts, even with a promotion to High A in that stretch. He went unselected in the Rule 5 draft even though Boston declined to protect him this winter, which was a mild surprise. He has to develop a better pitch for lefties but he could still end up a starter.
16. Gilberto Jimenez, OF
Age: 22| 5-11 | 212 pounds
Bats: Switch| Throws: Right
Drafted: International signing in 2017
Jimenez looks like a football player in a baseball uniform, with plus speed, a plus arm, and atrocious plate discipline — he drew 18 walks in 409 plate appearances last year, after drawing 19 walks in 408 plate appearances the year before, so I guess you could argue he’s going very, very, very slightly backwards. His issue is more than just laying off pitches, but making better decisions about when to swing to drive the ball more often. He’ll probably go to Double A this year as a 22-year-old. He has some time left to figure out any sort of plan at the plate, with everyday upside, but it’s far enough away that he’d need a telescope to see it.
17. Cutter Coffey, SS
Age: 19 | 6-2 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 41 in 2022
Coffey was a two-way player in high school who struggled badly as a hitter the previous summer at showcases, especially against offspeed stuff, but he has a sound swing with good hip rotation for some power if he can improve his pitch recognition. He was 90-94 mph off the mound and has the arm to slide over to third base, which was scouts’ expectation for him last spring before the draft.
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18. Nathan Hickey, C
Age: 23 | 6-0 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 136 in 2021
Hickey’s a very disciplined hitter with solid-average power who’s a work in progress behind the plate, improving but still with some ways to go, including controlling the running game after he threw out just 13 percent of runners last year. He has a good chance to be a backup and could still be something more if he gets the defense to a point where he could reasonably play every day.
19. Niko Kavadas, 1B
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 235 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 316 in 2021
Kavadas mashed against younger pitching as a 23-year-old in Low A and High A last year before finally stalling in Double A against better stuff. He has a good eye at the plate and plus power, but the bat is definitely slow and he’s going to have real trouble with left-handed breaking stuff now that he’s facing competition his own age. He’s limited to first base or DH, so the bat has to play. The OBP/power parts are real if he can find a way to hit enough to get to them.
20. Shane Drohan, LHP
Age: 24|6-3 | 195 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 148 in 2020
Drohan’s a fastball/changeup lefty, 89-93 mph on the heater, with the latter an above-average pitch, while his breaking ball is below average and his command is maybe a 45. He’s on the slight side and might be better as a bulk-innings reliever than as a starter, although he does get righties out well enough for the latter.
Others of note
Right-hander Luis Perales is a deep projection guy who’s up to 100 with good characteristics, while his secondary stuff is all a work in progress and he walked 11 men in 10 innings after a late-season promotion to Low A from the complex. He’ll turn 20 in April … Second baseman Chase Meidroth, their fourth-round pick in 2022, is undersized but never strikes out, with a super-short bat path that makes all the contact with none of the power … Fifth-rounder Noah Dean is 93-96 mph from the left side with good ride on the pitch but needs something else in his arsenal. He’s a straight reliever who closed for two years at Old Dominion.
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2023 impact
Casas is their first baseman. Walter should get major-league time this year. I don’t consider NPB/KBO players as prospects, but Masataka Yoshida will be their left fielder and is a rookie by MLB rules.
The fallen
Boston didn’t have a first-rounder in 2019, so their first pick came in the second round, where they selected University of Arizona infielder Cam Cannon. Now 25 (and selected by the Phillies in the Rule 5 draft), he hasn’t hit at all above A-ball, missed much of 2022 due to an oblique injury, and is still without a clear position, playing mostly third and second.
Sleeper
There are a bunch of guys I like here, including Anthony and Romero from the 2022 draft, but if I’m picking one name it’s Paulino, who can do a lot of things and still offers a good bit of physical projection.
(Photo of Ceddanne Rafaela: Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)
