The Cubs’ system remains thin, although they did have a pair of prospects make big moves forward this year. The disappointing part is the lack of pitching, even though the Cubs changed their philosophy a few years ago and started attacking pitching earlier in the draft. They still seem to do well identifying position-player prospects at the top of the draft, but have had less success with pitchers and fewer hits on the international front post-Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jiménez.
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The Top 10
1. Brennen Davis, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 55)
From the Top 100: Davis was a two-sport star whose senior spring started a bit late while he finished playing basketball, but the Cubs still grabbed him in the second round in 2018, betting on his athleticism and makeup. He was a favorite among Four Corners area scouts that year. The early returns have been promising, as he’s hit for more contact and a lot more power than I think anyone foresaw this soon. Davis is lanky and has barely begun to fill out, so there’s likely to be more power to come, while he’s already shown he can manage at-bats and use the middle of the field to get himself on base. Despite his 6-foot-4 frame he already has a very balanced swing, and the Cubs will just have to tighten up some mechanical things since he’s got such long levers. A former shortstop, he’s adapted quickly to center field; he projects to stay there and add value with his range. He’s the Cubs’ best prospect and the highest-upside guy in their system, giving them their best chance for another homegrown star position player.
2. Brailyn Marquez, LHP (Top 100 rank: No. 80)
From the Top 100: Marquez is the Cubs’ top pitching prospect and the most promising arm they’ve had in their system since they traded Dylan Cease in the José Quintana deal. Marquez has been up to 102 mph from the left side, holding 96-100 deep into games as a starter, with a power slider at 86-88. It’s an Aroldis Chapman kind of combination, with some feel for a changeup that was better for him in the second half of 2019. His delivery is tough to repeat and points toward a closer’s profile rather than a starter’s; he spins off his front heel, his arm is late relative to his landing, and he tends to drop his arm a little and sling the ball. Some guys overcome these issues and remain starters, and he has top-of-the-rotation stuff if he can. My bet is that he ends up a very high-end closer who can go two innings when needed because he has the third pitch to get out right-handed batters.
3. Miguel Amaya, C
Amaya has been inconsistent and can be frustrating to watch, but he has the tools and the patience to end up an above-average everyday catcher. His 2018 season was a mess, but he was pretty good in 2019, better than the raw stat line indicates because he was just 20 in high A and Myrtle Beach is such a bad place to hit – he hit .250/.345/.458 on the road. He sees pitches and draws walks without striking out, but his swing decisions aren’t good and he gives away too many at-bats. He’s got plus power and a plus arm, with a career CS% of 37 percent, and is adequate behind the plate, enough to stay there with the potential to get to average. A capable defensive catcher with OBP skills and 15-20 homers is at least a regular, maybe an All-Star; Amaya can get there with maturity and better choices at the plate.
4. Nico Hoerner, 2B
Hoerner wasn’t ready for the majors when the Cubs had an urgent need at shortstop, although if anything the callup made it clear that that’s not his ultimate position. But he at least handled the bat well and still projects as a solid-average regular at second or third. Hoerner gets the most out of his tools, with a short swing that leads to contact but not power, average speed that plays up because of his instincts on the bases, and the hands to handle another infield position that doesn’t demand the same quickness as shortstop does.
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5. Cole Roederer, OF
Roederer didn’t fare that well in his full-season debut, hitting .224/.319/.365 with a 25 percent strikeout rate, although scouts still like his above-average speed and potential to get to average power. He’s a solid defender in center with the range to stay there. He was young for the Midwest League, turning 20 in September, and has smoothed out his swing since high school, so there’s still reason for optimism even with the low batting average in his debut.
6. Adbert Alzolay, RHP
Alzolay has three pitches in a 93-96 mph fastball, a plus curveball, and a fringy changeup that at least gets lefties out, but left-handed batters crush his flat fastball and he kept going back to the pitch against them. His fastball might just be too straight for him to work as a starter, but he should at least try to use the changeup more heavily against lefties before the Cubs give up on that and make him a multi-inning reliever.
7. Ryan Jensen, RHP
Their first-round pick in 2019 can hold upper-90s on his four-seamer deep into games as a starter, working with a sinker, slider, and changeup as well. He’s just 6-foot tall but very athletic, and he threw strikes all spring for Fresno State. It’s easy to point to him and say “reliever” but there’s more than enough here for the Cubs to start him, with mid-rotation upside if it works.
8. Kohl Franklin, RPP
Franklin’s father Jay is a player agent and pitched in the minors, while his uncle Ryan spent a dozen years in the majors. Kohl is a projection right-hander with a very good delivery and the potential for three pitches, with the changeup the most promising but good spin on the curveball as well. He’s already showing above-average velocity and looks like he can add another 10-15 pounds to his 6-foot-4 frame. A sixth-round pick in 2018, Franklin looks like a clear fifth starter type as is, but with significant upside if he hits his projection.
9. Cory Abbott, RHP
Their second-round pick in 2017 led the Southern League in strikeouts last year despite an average fastball. It plays above his velocity and he has the feel to spin two breaking balls. He barely uses a changeup, but it did show up in his splits last year, with left-handed batters accounting for 11 of the 15 homers he allowed. That’s the one thing that might hold him back from being a fourth or fifth starter who provides a lot of bulk innings.
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10. Riley Thompson, RHP
Thompson is up to 97 mph as a starter and has hit 100 out of the bullpen with a plus changeup and extremely high-spin curveball. He’s starting now but is almost certainly a reliever, as his command and control are both around grade 40 now and he especially doesn’t command the fastball in the zone.
The next 10
11. Christopher Morel, 3B
Morel started the year in extended, went to South Bend and played well enough to stay there until a knee injury ended his season in mid-July. He has big bat speed with plus raw power, runs very well, and is fine at third base now with centerfield a possibility down the road. His pitch recognition lags behind his tools, and if that comes he offers as much upside as anyone in the system.
12. Ethan Hearn, C
Hearn was their big over-slot guy in the 2019 draft, signing in the sixth round for $950,000. He’s got power and a fast bat, receives well enough to stay there, and has a plus arm. It’s power over hit right now and he really struggled in the Arizona rookie league, striking out 36 times in 98 plate appearances.
13. Yovanny Cruz, RHP
Cruz is all upside but no production yet after an injury-shortened 2019 where he walked 19 in 23 innings. He’s been up to 96 mph with sink, can spin a breaking ball, and has a solid delivery, although he’s just 6-foot tall and has yet to throw more than 56 innings in a season.
14. Keegan Thompson, LHP
Thompson is a high-probability fifth starter if he can stay healthy, but made just one start in the regular season in 2019 as well as two rehab outings before heading to the Arizona Fall League. He’s a strike-thrower with good feel but just average stuff.
15. Chris Clarke, RHP
Their fourth-round pick in 2019 was a reliever at UCLA but the Cubs intend to start him, as he’s 6-foot-7 with a power curveball and good sink to his fastball.
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16. Michael McAvene, RHP
The Cubs’ third-rounder in 2019, McAvene worked as a closer for the University of Louisville but the Cubs may try him as a starter. He’s 92-96 with both a slider and changeup, but there’s effort in the delivery and his command was below-average when I saw him in a long relief outing last spring.
17. Chase Strumpf, 2B
The former UCLA shortstop who committed to the Bruins while he was still in ninth grade — insert eyeroll emoji here — had a down spring and slipped into the second round. He’s shown patience since he got to UCLA and carried it over into the summer, but he is so rotational he doesn’t cover the outer half that well, and has to make some mechanical adjustments in order to hit. The Cubs moved him from shortstop to second base, where he should be a 50 or 55 defender.
18. Hunter Bigge, RHP
The Cubs’ 12th-round pick out of a small liberal-arts college in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Bigge was a two-way player in college whom the Cubs moved right to the bullpen, where he sat 96-99 all summer. He’s never had especially good control and throws hard all the time, so there’s work to do, but the delivery itself isn’t violent and I’m going to assume he’s a bright kid. Also, he wrote his thesis on life experience.
19. Justin Steele, LHP
Steele looked good coming back from Tommy John surgery in the fall of 2018, but struggled to start 2019 in Double A before an oblique injury ended his season in late June. He’s probably a two-pitch reliever at this point given his lack of success as a starter.
20. Oscar De La Cruz, RHP
De La Cruz started the year on the restricted list after testing positive for a banned diuretic in 2018, and ended it pitching extremely well out of the Tennessee bullpen, with 49 strikeouts and nine walks in 37 1/3 innings after the Cubs made him a full-time reliever in late June. The fastball/curveball combination plays up there and as long as he can stay healthy he’s got value in the ‘pen.
2020 impact
Hoerner might be their second baseman this year, although his performance in Double A last season would indicate he might need some time in Triple A first.
The fallen
Pitchers Brendon Little and Alex Lange were their first-round picks in 2017, but neither has worked out at all; Little’s stuff backed up and he has had trouble staying healthy or throwing strikes, while Lange looks like an org pitcher and was traded to Detroit last summer.
Sleeper
Franklin is the guy to bet on if you’re willing to hang with his projection; he’s already gained velocity as he’s grown, and if that trend continues he could end up with three pitches that grade out as 60 or better.
(Top photo of Marquez: Rick Scuteri / USA Today)
