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Three weeks and five days to go until the 2022 MLB Draft begins, the Sunday night before the All-Star Game, by which point summer collegiate leagues will be half done and many players won’t have picked up a bat or ball in two months. MLB did hold its second annual combine, which appears to have been a big success, with more top-end players attending this time than in 2021, and a few players helping themselves with what they showed there.
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As always, this is not a ranking, but a projection based on the information I’ve gathered from scouts, executives and other sources on which players teams seem to be targeting with their first picks, and my knowledge of teams’ general philosophies in the draft. Some teams are more discreet about their interest in players, some less so. Where the information tying a team to a player is strong, I say so in the comment.
There are players who are definitely first-round caliber, and who might go in the first round, whom I don’t have going there in this mock. Some of those players – Jacob Miller, for example – could still get first-round money but go outside the top 30. The Rockies (picks Nos. 31 and 38) seem very likely to do this with one or more additional first-round talents, and the Orioles (Nos. 33 and 67), Royals (No. 35), and Pirates (No. 36) all have the extra picks and recent history of doing this. Many first-round talents who are out with injuries, like Dylan Lesko and Peyton Pallette, will get first-round bonuses but could go anywhere from the back half of the first round to the 30-45 range as teams get to their second selections and feel more willing to take on some risk.
1. Baltimore: Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan High (Suwanee, Ga.)
I think the only thing we know about Baltimore’s pick is that nobody outside of maybe three people in that organization will know who they’re taking until about five minutes before the pick. That was true every time the Astros drafted first with Mike Elias as scouting director, and it has been true with Elias as GM in Baltimore. We’re just offering educated guesses. Elias did indicate over the weekend that they’re probably not taking a pitcher, but – waves theatrically at imaginary draft board with no pitchers ranked in the top 10 – duh.
Even just limiting it to position players, though, I could still give you seven guys I think they might be considering, and acknowledge I might be missing someone. Jones, Jackson Holliday and Elijah Green seem obvious. Termarr Johnson and Cam Collier are possibilities – Collier just seems so much like someone who’d fit the criteria we can infer from Baltimore’s picks from the last four drafts. Brooks Lee and Jacob Berry are the two most likely college bats to go here. But right now I’d guess it’s one of the first three on this list, and since Jones is the best player in the draft by a modest margin, I’m putting him here for this mock.
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Scouting report: Jones is the son of Andruw Jones, and his game bears many resemblances to his father’s, not least in the outfield, where Druw is already a plus defender and could work his way up to an elite level with experience. At the plate, he shows 70 power thanks to the strength in his wrists and forearms, with more power possible as he fills out further. And he has shown some bat control against amateur competition, with some understanding of when to pull the ball and when to try to go the other way. He’s a plus runner right now but may lose some of that down the road as he gets bigger, as his father did by age 24-25. The real question on Druw is whether he’ll hit – if he does, he’s a superstar, with 30/30 potential and a glove that should save 10 or more runs a year in center. If he’s more of a 45 bat, he still has plenty of major-league value due to the secondary skills, so he could be worth several WAR per year even with a .300ish on-base percentage. He’d have to be a worse hitter than even that to be something less than a regular, and the unlikeliness of that outcome combined with his very high ceiling make him the top prospect in this year’s draft class.
2. Arizona: Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater (Okla.) High
I believe if the Orioles don’t take Jones, the Diamondbacks will; and if the Orioles do take Jones, the Diamondbacks will cry for one-tenth of a second and take Holliday. They’re in a pretty good spot for this class.
Scouting report: I’m not sure anyone has helped himself more than Holliday has this spring, notably during his team’s spring break trip to Arizona in March, where Holliday showed incredibly well in front of a lot of decision-makers in town for spring training. He has one of the best swings in the draft, even with a slight bat wrap, with strong plate coverage and above-average power, more likely to be a high-doubles guy with 15-20 homers than a 30-homer guy even at his peak. He’s been hard to strike out as an amateur, only showing occasional weakness against fastballs up, and so far his pitch recognition has been strong for his age and experience level. He’s improved his defensive skills at shortstop, although there’s also been talk of him moving to centerfield to take advantage of his speed if he can’t stay at short, rather than moving him to second or third. It also hasn’t hurt that his father, Matt, was a longtime big-leaguer and seven-time All-Star, and that scouts have been just as impressed by Jackson’s younger brother, Ethan, who may become a top-5 pick in the 2025 draft. Jackson’s heading for the same range this year.
3. Texas: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (Bradenton, Fla.)
Green would be a reversal of form for the Rangers, who’ve gone college in the first round in the last three years, including Vanderbilt’s Jack Leiter in 2021.
Scouting report: Green looks the part of a future star in size, frame, and especially tools, with a strong, athletic 6-3 build, explosive speed, and plus power already that projects to 70 in the future. It’s easy, easy power, with fantastic hand acceleration after a quiet start, and when he gets his arms extended the ball jumps off his bat. All his power comes on pitches on the middle or outer thirds, although he can still make contact on the inner third, just without the same sort of impact. The concern on Green has always been his tendency to swing and miss, especially on stuff in the zone; he doesn’t chase fastballs, but will miss fastball strikes, especially up, and can expand for breaking stuff down and away. He has the most pure upside of the high school position players in the class, with 30/30 potential in a true centerfielder who throws well enough to play right, with a bit more risk than some of the other hitters in the top echelon.
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4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola College
This rumor has been picking up steam the past two weeks, especially with Collier going to the Cape Cod League as a 17-year-old, reaching base six times in 12 plate appearances, and then going out to the MLB Combine and playing well there. The Pirates have also come up as a possible home for Brooks Lee.
Scouting report: Collier is one of the youngest players in this draft class, as he won’t turn 18 until November, but he pulled a Bryce Harper by leaving high school after his sophomore year to attend Chipola College, one of the best junior college baseball programs in the country. It is paying off, as he’s hitting for average and getting on base this spring with solid power production despite being the youngest player on the Chipola roster and younger than every pitcher he’s faced. Collier, whose father Lou played in the majors for several years as an extra outfielder, is 6-foot-2 and may still grow a little with a ton of room to fill out. He’s a third baseman now and good enough to stay there with a 70 arm and the agility to handle the position as the game speeds up. At the plate, he’s more than held his own against much better pitching than what he saw in high school; he’s had some expected issues with breaking stuff but also shown he can adjust to some of those pitches and stay back to take them the other way. He needs to add some more strength to better control the barrel as well as make harder contact, as his hands work well enough at the plate for him to be a plus hitter with average power. He’s committed to Louisville but should be a top-five pick in the draft.
5. Washington Nationals: Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
This connection keeps coming up – I don’t feel like anything is certain but I have more confidence in this name/team link than most in this mock. If Jones is here, or maybe Holliday, that could change their plans.
Scouting report: Parada has been one of the best hitters in college baseball this year, tying for sixth in Division 1 with 26 home runs while walking nearly as often as he struck out on the season (32:30 K:BB), and does so despite one of the more bizarre setups you’ll see in a hitter and while handling the most difficult position on the diamond. Parada sets up at the plate with the bat slung over his shoulder like a bag of golf clubs, but gets the bat to the zone on time, even against better velocity. His plate discipline and pitch recognition are both advanced for an amateur and he’s shown some ability to make adjustments in-season already. Behind the plate, he’s adequate as a receiver with fringy arm strength, good enough to stay there because he hits so well. With 20-25 homer power and a potential 60 hit tool at a position of permanent scarcity, he offers some of the best pure value in the draft class.
6. Miami Marlins: Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays High (Atlanta)
I’d heard all spring the Marlins wanted one of Johnson, Dylan Lesko or Green. I don’t think they’d pop Lesko here after Tommy John, and Lesko may end up someone’s second-pick overpay. Johnson shouldn’t get much farther than this, not with him No. 1 on many scouts’ individual lists.
Scouting report: Johnson has the best pure hit tool in the draft class, with scouts saying it’s the best hit tool they’ve seen on a high school kid in a decade or more. Despite a small hitch in his swing, he does hit all pitch types and controls the zone, with outstanding hand-eye coordination and great bat speed, making good quality contact but with only average power. He’s a shortstop now but will move to second base in pro ball, with good hands but not the footwork to handle short. I think the present hit tool is a 60, at best, rather than a 70, although perhaps it will get there in time, but he’s swung and missed enough against good competition that the higher grade doesn’t apply just yet. He has exceptional makeup in every evaluation, from his feel for the game to the way he acts as an additional coach on the field to the interviews he’s had with scouts and team executives, so there’s greater confidence that he’ll reach his ceiling than there is for just about any high school player. That ceiling is tied to just how good his hit tool can become.
7. Chicago Cubs: Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
The Cubs have been thrown around as Collier’s floor, and I think they’d be in on Parada if he gets this far. If Lee is gone, they could go with Zach Neto, staying in the college infielder ranks.
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Scouting report: Lee has been the best pure hitter among college prospects this year, running a walk-to-strikeout rate over 2.00 all season and punching out well under 10 percent of the time. He controls the zone well and rarely misses fastballs within it, thanks to exceptional hand-eye coordination. His swing is unorthodox and kind of noisy, with some evident effort, but with all that hip and torso rotation he doesn’t always make the high-quality contact teams are looking for in elite prospects. I don’t think Lee is a shortstop long term; he has outstanding hands that will play anywhere on the field, but his ankles are thick and he’s a 40 runner, so the lateral agility that position demands may just be beyond his physical ability. Put him at third base and he should be fine. It’s a bet on the bat, and that a pro department can take this foundation of contact skills and help him get to more consistent contact quality; it’s easier to teach someone to hit the ball harder than it is to teach him to hit the ball in the first place. Lee should be a strong regular who makes some All-Star teams as a third or second baseman, but probably doesn’t project to be a superstar.
8. Minnesota Twins: Zach Neto, SS, Campbell
The Twins have come up as the potential high mark for Gavin Cross and Cole Young, as well. It does seem like they’re only on bats, and primarily college ones.
Scouting report: Neto is a definite shortstop who should be a plus defender in the majors and has a plus arm, but he’s really made himself some money this spring with his performance, including just a mere 7.6 percent strikeout rate for the Camels. He’s got the extraneous movement that you need to have to be a top hitting prospect in this year’s draft, although he calms it down with two strikes; despite that, he’s short to the ball and makes high-quality contact, even hitting for some home-run power that may not persist into pro ball with wood bats and better pitching. He’s spent a little time on the mound, but his future is on the dirt, and with his propensity for putting the bat on the ball and enough power to project as a 30-doubles guy, he should go in the top half of the first round.
9. Kansas City Royals: Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech
I hear the Royals on a motley collection of players – and note that last year, they went off the board for a high school pitcher, Frank Mozzicato, which allowed them to go over slot with multiple later picks, so they could very easily do so again. Other names I’ve heard here include Green, Justin Crawford, Brock Porter and Neto. They’re the team in the top 10 most likely to take a pitcher, at least for now.
Scouting report: Cross is an advanced hitter with above-average power and the potential for more with some swing adjustments, rising thanks to a thin crop of advanced college hitters in this year’s class. He’s improved his approach significantly this year, walking more than he’s struck out in conference play through May 19th, and improving his ball-strike recognition over 2021. He’s an above-average runner who can steal a bag but isn’t fleet enough to stay in center in pro ball. He strides too far at the plate, without transferring his weight as he does so, which cuts off some of his power potential and can leave him unable to drive anything on the outer half. He hasn’t faced much left-handed pitching this year, with a mild platoon split in the sample he’s had, which is just something to watch when he moves into pro ball rather than an immediate concern. He should be a solid regular in an outfield corner, thanks to his hitting and on-base skills, but I’d like to see some swing changes that might unlock more power.
10. Colorado Rockies: Jacob Berry, 3B, LSU
I’ve heard this is Berry’s floor. The Rockies are also linked to Porter – whom they could target at pick No. 31 with an over-slot deal – Crawford, Neto, and Elijah Green if he gets here.
Scouting report: Berry has one of the best pure hit tools in the draft class, with an exceptional combination of contact and power — at the end of the regular season, he had the fewest strikeouts of any hitter with at least 15 homers. He transferred from the University of Arizona to LSU for his junior year, and in the process cut his strikeout rate substantially, with less power on contact (perhaps also a result of moving from 2,400 feet above sea level to 56 feet above it). He has a very simple approach from both sides of the plate, with no stride and just average bat speed, but despite that he’s had no trouble getting to good velocity. Berry has no position — the Tigers have tried him at third and both outfield corners, and he’s been bad everywhere, reminiscent of current Diamondbacks DH Seth Beer when he was at Clemson. That lack of a position limits how valuable he can be, and if he doesn’t hit, there’s no floor. But someone will take him for the potential OBP/power combination he offers, perhaps with the hope he can handle first base.
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11. New York Mets: Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech
The Mets have two picks in the first round, Nos. 11 and 14, so they are linked to a huge group of players, and other teams think they’ll get creative and move some of that huge bonus pool around – one rumor has them willing to offer Elijah Green well over slot if he gets here. Jung didn’t look great as Tech’s season finished, so he might be sliding into the teens.
Scouting report: Jung has one of the weirdest setups you will ever see in a hitter above Little League, holding the bat so far behind his back shoulder that you’d think it was covered in a toxic fungus. Or perhaps cooties. Yet he hits — he hit well enough as a sophomore in 2021, with a .337/.462/.697 line and more walks than strikeouts, that he probably would have gone in the top half of the first round last year had he been eligible. The younger brother of Rangers prospect Josh Jung, Jace gets the bat head into the zone in plenty of time to make consistent, high-quality contact, including power, with 21 homers as a sophomore and 14 this season. His position is still the main question; he’s mostly played second base in college, not that well, but doesn’t have the arm for the left side of the infield or the speed to play anywhere else but left field or first base. There’s enough reason to buy his bat that he’s going to go in the top-10 picks even with such a huge unknown in his profile.
12. Detroit Tigers: Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny High (Wexford, Pa.)
I’ve also heard the Tigers with Crawford, and we know they’re not afraid to take a high school pitcher, which puts them in the mix for Porter and Robbie Snelling, who has risen as much as any prep arm this spring. There was talk of Young getting into the top 10, but I think some teams up there are shying away because he’ll be 19 at the draft and didn’t face great competition this spring.
Scouting report: Young has surged up draft boards with a strong showing this spring in the Pittsburgh suburbs. Last summer he would often overstride, and since he nearly bars his lead arm, he was left off-balance enough that he couldn’t adjust to stuff spinning away from him, although he’s quieted all of that down somewhat this spring and scouts have reported seeing better quality contact from him. He’s at least a 55 runner who has the speed and arm to stay at shortstop, although he’ll need some adjustment with his footwork to remain there in the majors. The Duke commit will turn 19 a few weeks after the draft, which will hurt him with certain teams that weigh age more heavily, while teams that focus more on tools and athleticism are likely to push him into the first 15 picks.
13. Los Angeles Angels: Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, East Carolina
Whisenhunt showed well in his first outing on Cape Cod and seems likely to go in the first round now, even after missing the entire spring due to a suspension testing positive for a banned substance (the drug has not been revealed publicly). The Angels seem very likely to go college arm again, with Gabriel Hughes and Justin Campbell on their list.
Scouting report: Whisenhunt didn’t pitch for East Carolina this spring after testing positive for a banned substance in the offseason, so he didn’t make his 2022 debut until June 12 when he pitched for the Chatham Anglers of the Cape Cod League. He looked good despite some rust, sitting 92-93 mph and touching 95 mph with an improved curveball and a changeup that flashed plus. It’s a paradox of sorts but he might be better off having missed the spring. While many other first-round contenders among college pitchers have had Tommy John surgery, Whisenhunt is healthy and relatively fresh, making him likely to pitch for most of the remaining minor-league season after the draft. He was ruled ineligible for the NCAA season after testing positive for a banned substance. That left his team without its best pitcher this year, as East Carolina ultimately fell in the super regionals to Texas — perhaps it would be in Omaha if Whisenhunt had been around. However, he is the best healthy college left-hander in the draft right now, with mid-rotation upside.
14. New York Mets: Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall-Heath (Texas) High
The Mets have been linked to Williams for several weeks now, as well as prep lefty Robbie Snelling, while they’ve also heavily scouted a number of players who should be “tweeners” (players who’ll go between their picks) but could be under-slot candidates here, too.
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Scouting report: Williams is the other 5-8 high school shortstop in this draft class, behind Termarr Johnson because of the latter’s elite hit tool … but how far behind, really? He’s a right-handed hitter with a clean, efficient swing, and his hand-eye coordination rivals Johnson’s; Williams almost never swung and missed last summer on the showcase circuit and didn’t show any trouble with velocity when he faced it. He’s an above-average to plus runner, quick enough for shortstop but lacking the arm strength or footwork for the position in the long term, so it’s more likely he’ll move to second base or possibly centerfield. There’s always some trepidation around undersized high school hitters, but I remember a similarly sized right-handed high school shortstop who rarely struck out and hit everything hard — Alex Bregman.
15. San Diego Padres: Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman High (Las Vegas)
Crawford’s floor is right around here – if it’s not at No. 15, it’s within the next few picks. The Padres are on Williams and Snelling, and they’re also presumed to be one of the teams interested in the top injured pitchers, including Dylan Lesko and Connor Prielipp. They are also one of two teams linked to Kumar Rocker in the top 20 with the belief they’d try to use him in the majors this year as a reliever.
Scouting report: The son of Carl Crawford — yes, Carl Crawford is old enough to have a son in the draft, and nothing in this draft year has made me feel any older than that one fact — is quite similar to his dad as a player. He’s at least a 70 runner, with good bat speed, but not much present power or even hard contact yet, although his frame is very projectable and he could get to average power. He sets up with an extremely wide stance, and strides about as far as he can, which may be why he has trouble adjusting to changing speeds. He’s a better defender than Carl was and throws well enough to stay in centerfield. He has above-average regular upside, but may require more time in the minors than the typical first-round high school position player.
16. Cleveland Guardians: Robby Snelling, LHP, McQueen High (Reno, Nev.)
The Guardians did hit it big with a high school pitcher in 2019, as Daniel Espino is one of the top pitching prospects in the minors now, which might be why scouts think they’re on high school pitching again. I don’t think that’s a guarantee – Jett Williams, Crawford and Sterlin Thompson are all possibilities here.
Scouting report: Snelling has flown up boards this spring thanks to his athleticism and one of the better curveballs in the class. He’ll sit 92-93 mph and has touched the mid-90s, but the curveball is the selling point here, in the upper 70s with angle and tight rotation. He shifts his hand position for the two pitches, though, visibly on top of the fastball and on the side of the breaking ball, which better hitters might pick up on to distinguish the pitch type out of his hand. He accelerates his arm very well at the end of a pretty clean delivery, with a little bit of a head-jerk at release. He’s a former quarterback who has the athleticism you’d expect from a two-sport player, but many quarterbacks haven’t been able to translate their arm strength into baseball success. He also needs to develop a third pitch, although the fact that he’s left-handed and has a now breaking ball gives him a higher floor than most high school pitchers can offer.
17. Philadelphia Phillies: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Tri-City Valley Cats
The Phillies are the other team (besides the Padres) that could take Rocker, even with concerns about what the Mets saw in his medical, with the goal of bringing him to the majors this year. After two straight years where they took high school pitchers, however, I don’t think they’re going in that direction again.
Scouting report: Rocker was the 10th-overall pick last year, selected by the Mets, but the team declined to offer him a contract after finding something they didn’t like in his post-draft physical. Rocker left Vanderbilt to pitch for the independent Tri-City ValleyCats in upstate New York, where he was 95-98 in his first outing with two above-average breaking balls and an adequate changeup, showing a lower arm slot than he had last year. Rocker has shown a plus-plus slider at times in the past, and there’s no reason to think his fastball is back but his slider isn’t. He has always had better control than command, and while he’s shown incredible competitiveness in some games — like the no-hitter he threw in 2019, when he was pushed to 131 pitches — he’s also had outings where he seemed to struggle to adjust mid-game. He has No. 2 starter upside, if healthy, but the risk associated with his medicals may make him a better bet for some team’s second pick.
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18. Cincinnati Reds: Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
I’ve also heard the Reds with Sterlin Thompson, who certainly helped himself down the stretch, playing a competent second base at the SEC tournament and beyond. The Reds could also be Neto’s floor or a spot for another college bat like Jordan Beck.
Scouting report: Susac has actually had a slightly worse sophomore year than freshman year, but the weak draft and the value of his position has moved him up into the top half of the first round. Susac, whose older brother Andrew was a second-round pick in 2014 and has played 114 games in the majors, is a solid-average receiver at worst with a plus arm, giving no doubt that he’ll stay at the position. At the plate, he starts out with an interpretive dance sequence that involves a huge step forward and then erases it with the same move backwards, but of more concern is that his swing is long, and he’s been far more dangerous against fastballs than anything else because adjusting once he’s committed to the swing is difficult. He has produced well enough in a Power 5 conference for two years to be a first-rounder, with a similar projection to Joey Bart’s out of college — low-OBP with power and solid defense.
19. Oakland A’s: Dylan Beavers, OF, California
Another link that has become stronger in the last few weeks, which would give the A’s three straight first-rounders from the state of California. These two picks – the Reds and A’s – seem like the start of a run on college bats that will probably take us right up to the end of the round.
Scouting report: Beavers is a strong, 6-4 outfielder with big power but an unusual swing path that has led to questions about his future hit tool. He hit .291/.427/.634 for the Golden Bears this spring with 17 homers, after he swatted 18 for them last spring. He makes a sharp move down and slightly back when he begins his swing, and whether you want to call it a hitch or not, it’s not helping him with timing, leading to trouble with breaking stuff and a lot of groundballs because his hands are moving upwards and he gets on top of the ball. He does have good bat speed and is athletic enough that he might end up a plus defender in right, although the odds are against him staying in center. If he can work around this swing issue, or some team can smooth it out, he has above-average regular upside thanks to his speed and pitch recognition.
20. Atlanta: Sterlin Thompson, 2B/OF, Florida
I think it’s more likely that Atlanta goes college than high school, and more likely hitter than pitcher, so they’d be looking at the college position player group that includes Thompson, Beck, Graham and Drew Gilbert.
Scouting report: Thompson is a draft-eligible sophomore with a pretty left-handed swing and the potential for plus power, showing a solid two-strike approach for the Gators this spring while hitting well even in SEC play. He’s a below-average runner who’s limited to an outfield corner and could end up at first base, which definitely caps his value upside. His best tool is the hit tool, which is the hardest one to evaluate, and if he doesn’t in fact end up with a 55 or 60 hit tool, he’s not going to have much of a role in the majors. Primarily a corner outfielder, Thompson has played a lot of second base this year for the Gators, and improved enough as the season has gone on that many scouts believe he’ll be able to stay there in pro ball. He’s shown he can hit good velocity with doubles power right now, enough that he should be a mid-first-rounder this July.
21. Seattle Mariners: Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee
Until last year, the Mariners were exclusively college-focused in the first round, but they zagged with Georgia prep hitter Harry Ford. It is likely the high school hitters will go well before their pick this year, so they’re more likely to go back to the college ranks, which could put them on one of the college hitters likely to go in the 20s (Beck, Brock Jones, Delauter, Max Wagner, Jacob Melton, etc.).
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Scouting report: Beck has risen up draft boards this spring with a solid, but hardly spectacular, performance, but one that is also supported by tools and athleticism that give scouts reason to believe he can continue to improve in pro ball. Beck has a great build for a hitter, 6-3, 225, with quick wrists and huge raw power that has yet to show up consistently in games, even though he plays in a homer-friendly stadium in Knoxville. He’s very rotational at the plate and has the strength to drive the ball out to all fields, but his approach and pitch recognition have held him back. He’s shown weakness on the outer half, especially on sliders, and expands the zone away too easily. He’s struck out nearly twice as often as he’s walked and hit .252 in regular season SEC play, ranking fourth on the team in homers (16). He’s an above-average runner who plays right field for the Vols because they have a superior defender in center in Drew Gilbert; if he can play center in pro ball, it would substantially add to his value. He’s benefiting from a weak draft class that has left teams looking for upside in unexpected places.
22. St. Louis Cardinals: Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama
The Cardinals have hit it very big with some high-ceiling picks the last few years, and Prielipp was going to be a top-five pick before Tommy John surgery ended his 2021 season and kept him out all of this spring for the Tide. He’s thrown twice now before scouts, including a very strong showing at the MLB Combine last week.
Scouting report: Prielipp had Tommy John surgery at the end of May 2021, ending his college career after just seven starts and 28 innings across two seasons. He returned to throw a bullpen right before the SEC tournament, mostly 90-92 with flashes of the slider he’d had before the injury, when the slider was plus and his changeup was good enough to project him as a starter. He cuts himself off when he lands, coming back a little across his body, although that and the low 3/4 slot also add to his deception. He might have been in consideration for the first-overall pick had he stayed healthy — and performed — but now seems more likely to get a deal in the second half of the first round. As for his future, he could be a high-end starter, and he could easily end up in the bullpen. He’s thrown so little in games that the range of his potential outcomes is huge.
23. Toronto Blue Jays: Peyton Graham, SS, Oklahoma
It sounds like the Jays are more likely to go college position player here, which makes sense given the best players available in this range.
Scouting report: A midseason swing adjustment that has him staying back more with less extra movement turned Graham from a guy who might have gone back for his senior year to a potential day one pick. Graham was hitting .282/.351/.541 through the end of March, with a 27 percent strikeout rate; since then, he’s hit .370/.454/.721 (through June 10) with a 17 percent strikeout rate, even though most of that latter period was in the Big 12. He’s a plus runner who has played a ton of third and shortstop plus a little outfield on the Cape, with enough of a chance to stay at short that he’ll almost certainly start his pro career there. Even with the changes to his approach, he still has some swing and miss concerns, especially on sliders, and probably isn’t a quick-through-the-minors guy. His upside as an above-average regular at short or third could be enough to get him into the late first round.
24. Boston Red Sox: Brock Jones, OF, Stanford
Jones came into the year as a potential top-10 pick, stumbled badly out of the gate and then finished very strongly in the Pac 12, hitting his 21st homer of the year in Stanford’s opening game in Omaha over the weekend. The Red Sox are more likely to go for some ceiling here, even with risk, than to take a high-floor guy.
Scouting report: Jones came into the spring with top-5 pick buzz, then got off to a miserable start for the Cardinal, but he turned his season around when conference play started, hitting .350/.490/.795 in the PAC-12 — albeit with a 26 percent strikeout rate. A former football player who played one year for the Cardinal, Jones has 25 homer/25 speed upside if he hits enough to get to it, with the speed to potentially stay in centerfield. Even in this generally successful season, Jones has done nearly all of his damage on fastballs, whiffing on nearly half of the offspeed pitches he swings at. There are better pure hitters in this year’s draft class, and thus position players with more probability of reaching the big leagues and having some kind of positive value, but Jones beats most of them in potential upside.
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25. New York Yankees: Brock Porter, RHP, St. Mary’s High (Orchard Lake, Mich.)
The surprising rumor of the week had the Yankees on Tyler Locklear, a corner infielder at Virginia Commonwealth. I heard from multiple sources that they scouted him very heavily down the stretch. They did go for a minor-conference bat with strong spring performance last year with Trey Sweeney. I also think they’re a possibility for Spencer Jones, Brock Jones and Jordan Beck.
Scouting report: Porter has emerged as one of the top high school right-handers in this class, and right now is the best bet to be the first arm taken from anywhere in the class. He’s been up to 97 this spring with good arm-side run on the pitch, while both his curveball and changeup project as at least above-average offerings when he starts using them more. He offers a ton of projection on his 6-4 frame, with a long stride toward the plate and good extension over his front side. He’s also committed to Clemson, but he’s pitched well enough this spring that he should go high enough to sign.
26. Chicago White Sox: Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State
Too obvious? The White Sox have a long history of taking pitchers with tremendous stuff – Hjerpe has two above-average or better secondary pitches – and deliveries that steer other teams away. They did break a streak of nine straight college players in the first round (counting one juco player) last year when they took high school infielder Colson Montgomery, but I think they’re going college arm here if possible.
Scouting report: Hjerpe had eye-popping numbers this spring for the Beavers, with a Division I-leading 161 strikeouts and a strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate that ranked second, behind only a 23-year-old sophomore at FIU. Hjerpe does it with two potentially plus secondary pitches in his slider and changeup – the former getting big sweeping action from his low slot, while the latter is helped by the deception in his delivery. The delivery is one of the main concerns, however, as Hjerpe cuts himself off and comes way across his body, while he delivers the ball from a very low slot not far above sidearm. The other concern is that his fastball is ordinary, 88-93 mph now, with multiple scouts saying they fear it’ll go backward in pro ball when he’s asked to pitch every fifth day. He may be able to start thanks to those two secondary pitches, but there is no big-league starter in recent memory who was this cross-body, so Hjerpe may have a lot more upside in the bullpen instead.
27. Milwaukee Brewers: Adam Mazur, RHP, Iowa
The betting seems to be college over high school, pitcher if a good one is available, and I think one will be – Mazur, Tidwell, Hjerpe, Hughes, maybe Matt Harrington or Justin Campbell. There’s even some talk of Jake Bennett going in the late first round, although that’s a reach as he seems more likely to go on day two.
Scouting report: A transfer this year from South Dakota State, Mazur has risen up draft boards in part through his stuff and in part by attrition, as he’s one of the only good college starters in the class to pitch every week this spring. Mazur is a four-pitch starter who’ll hold 92-95 velocity deep into games, getting ahead with the fastball and missing bats with both of his breaking balls, with the slider his best offering, showing good tilt and enough break to get chases from right-handed batters. His changeup might be solid average, although he almost exclusively uses it for left-handed batters, and often prefers to use the curveball in its stead. He’s on the slender side for a starter, but his delivery is good, he throws strikes, and he has a potential out pitch in the slider. In this draft class, that is a no-doubt first-round pick for me.
28. Houston Astros: Chase Delauter, OF, James Madison
Delauter’s college season ended in early April with a broken foot, but he should be cleared to resume hitting any day now, which means he could hit for scouts or perhaps even play in a summer league somewhere, all of which would probably help his stock after he had some tough looks in his short season and then didn’t play for two months. Houston has added to its scouting staff again, so I don’t think they’re just drafting off R&D to the extent they did in the previous few years, but Delauter would be a good compromise between the two.
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Scouting report: Delauter had about as bad a spring as any of the players who came into 2022 as first-round candidates — he was dominated by the two left-handers in the Florida State rotation in a series that was very heavily attended by scouts, and just a few weeks later broke his foot, ending his season after 24 games. His gaudy stat line this spring was boosted by a comical 13-for-22 performance with five homers and 10 walks in midweek games against inferior opponents. Delauter opens his front side way too early as he tries to cheat to get to velocity, and thus becomes vulnerable to offspeed stuff moving away. Florida State’s lefties just attacked him with fastballs and he struck out six times in those two games, giving teams the book on how to approach him. There could be more here with a lot of swing and mechanical work, but scouts are concerned he just can’t get to velocity consistently without that early move. He’s played mostly center for the Dukes but will end up a corner in pro ball.
29. Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage High (Plantation, Fla.)
The Rays are the most open of any of the teams drafting in the lower third – they and St. Louis are the two clubs most likely to roll the dice on a high-ceiling high school player, for example. The Rays would also be an obstacle for any other team trying/hoping to push a player down to a sandwich or second-round pick for an overslot deal.
Scouting report: Barriera ended his season early, choosing to make his final start before his team’s schedule was over, which may become more common going forward (Hunter Greene did this as well) as pitchers try to avoid getting hurt right before the draft. He’s been up to 98 with a very fast arm and shows two very sharp breaking balls, both of which can touch plus, along with an average changeup. He doesn’t offer much projection, but he also doesn’t need it given his present stuff, and his build right now seems sufficient for him to stay a starter. I don’t think he gets great extension over his front side, but it’s a minor quibble. It’s premium stuff, and he’s aggressive on the mound. If he gets to consistent strikes, he’s an above-average starter.
30. San Francisco Giants: Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
I think the Giants go college here. I had them with Drew Gilbert in the last mock, and Gilbert probably still goes in the 20-40 range. Hughes and Harrington both fit a lot of what the Giants seem to like in pitching drafts.
Scouting report: Hughes took a big step forward in command this year even as his stuff ticked up, all of which has put him into first-round consideration. He’s sitting 93-94 mph now, touching 97 mph, up almost 2 mph from last year, with a hard slider in the low to mid 80s that misses a lot of bats. He’s huge, 6-5 and 225 pounds already, with a workhorse frame but a longish arm action that he has a hard time repeating. He has a changeup that he barely uses, although it’s been effective when he has. There’s some reliever risk here from the delivery, and the fact that his command is still probably a soft 45, but there’s also big upside given the frame and the two pitches he already has.
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos: Mike Carlson / Getty, Mike Janes / AP, Team USA)
