The Mariners put five guys on my top 100, which I believe is the most they’ve ever had since I started compiling these lists 14 years ago, and that includes some guys with very high ceilings. The system still isn’t very deep, however, as GM Jerry Dipoto has churned through lower-level prospects in trades while at least leaving the elite guys alone to potentially help the big club this year or next.
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To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Jarred Kelenic, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 4)
From the Top 100: Kelenic was the No. 6 overall pick in 2018, and if anything that seems too low in hindsight, even though four of the five guys taken ahead of him have already reached the majors. Kelenic is a true five-tool player, grading out above average in his hit, power, glove, arm and run tools, projecting to stay in center field but with the arm for right if he ever has to move there (e.g., with Kyle Lewis in center). He played in three levels in 2019 as a 19-year-old and continued to hit up through Double A, showing more discipline than expected for a cold-weather high school kid. His power should get him to 25-30 homers, with 20-plus steals and strong OBPs. He probably would have debuted in 2020 had there been a full minor-league season, and I expect he’ll be up by the middle of 2021. I know it pains Mets fans to read this, but I think Kelenic is going to be a superstar.
2. Julio Rodriguez, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 24)
From the Top 100: Rodriguez was just 18 years old when he ripped through Low A and High A in 2019, hitting like someone three years his senior, with a very impressive contact rate for any prospect at those stops, and he probably would have spent most of 2020 at Double A had there been a season. He’s a big, strong kid with long levers and an easy, rotational swing that looks geared to hit the ball a long way. He’s played mostly center field to date, but he’s going to end up in right field or left given his frame, with the power to profile in a corner. What remains to be seen is how much he’ll hit — his pitch recognition isn’t that advanced and his swing can get long — which will determine whether he’s a star who can hit cleanup or just a very solid regular with power and lower OBPs.
3. Logan Gilbert, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 47)
From the Top 100: Gilbert is one of the most likely mid-rotation starter prospects in the minors, perhaps lacking the upside of some guys ahead of him who throw harder, but with a higher floor and more probability. Gilbert was the Mariners’ first-round pick in 2018 after a spring when he pitched well but with less velocity due to a case of mono; since then, he’s picked back up to pitch more at 92-95 mph with a plus breaking ball. At the alternate site in 2020, the Mariners had him work on his changeup to further round out his arsenal, although he didn’t show any platoon split in 2019. Gilbert’s delivery is so easy that it’s almost boring, and he has some of the best command of anyone on this list, so while he probably doesn’t have a 70 pitch anywhere, he should be an above-average starter for someone for a very long time, maybe outlasting a lot of guys who burn twice as bright.
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4. Emerson Hancock, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 54)
From the Top 100: The Mariners took Hancock with the sixth overall pick in 2020, although a full spring might have given him more of a chance to go higher in the draft, as he didn’t show his full complement of stuff before the pandemic arrived. The University of Georgia tried to make Hancock a groundball guy, telling him to work down in the zone, but that’s not a good fit for his delivery or arsenal. He was 93-97 mph for the Bulldogs last spring, with two fringy breaking balls and a changeup he never used, but the Mariners directed him to use the changeup over the summer and saw an above-average pitch, as well as a much-improved slider and good ride on the fastball when he stopped trying to sink it. He’s a good athlete, and still has a lot of room to fill out even though he’s already 21. The Mariners do have a lot of work to do here, more than you’d expect with a college arm taken in the top 10, but he has No. 2 starter upside if that slider is consistently plus for him going forward.
5. Taylor Trammell, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 97)
From the Top 100: Trammell has now been traded twice, going from the Padres to the Mariners this past summer in a deal that brought catcher Austin Nola and two relievers to San Diego, and between the two trades and the lack of a minor-league season, his development has slowed. Trammell has great feel for the game, showing it in particular on defense where he should be a plus or better defender in left, with the range and reads to play center but probably not the arm for it. He has plus raw power and makes hard contact, but over the past two years, it’s become more evident that his hit tool isn’t as advanced as it appeared off his breakout year in 2018, even though he’s shown good ball/strike recognition. He’s received raves from all three organizations for his makeup and work ethic, and has the physical tools to become a star, but needs more at-bats, maybe even to repeat Double A, to convert that strike zone command and hard contact skill into higher batting averages so the power can play.
6. Noelvi Marte, SS
Marte is a strong kid for 19, big enough that he might end up moving to third base, but he’s a shortstop for now with a very high power ceiling. Marte signed for $1.55 million in 2018 and showed good plate discipline in the Dominican Summer League the following summer, although the way he loads his hands may lead to some more swing and miss against better pitching. He has a plus arm and good instincts in the field, so if he doesn’t outgrow the position he could have an enormous ceiling as a power-hitting shortstop with some on-base skills.
7. George Kirby, RHP
Kirby was the Mariners’ first-round pick in 2019 out of the quietly productive baseball program at Elon University. He’ll work up to 95-96 mph with good secondary characteristics on the fastball and his curveball, with enough of a four-pitch mix to project as a mid-rotation starter. Hitters do see the ball out of his hand better than you’d like, and his stuff, especially the fastball, can play down a little bit, so he might settle in as a No. 4 rather than anything more.
8. Cal Raleigh, C
Raleigh has legit power and can catch, and he’s performed pretty much everywhere he’s played other than his 39 game stint in Double A to finish 2019, when his strikeout rate jumped to just under 30 percent. He’s adequate behind the plate with a strong arm, and hit 29 homers in that full season of 2019 between High A and Double A. He just doesn’t look the part — he’s rather square of build, and not that athletic — so he’s been underrated since he went in the third round of the 2018 draft out of Florida State. I think he’s a regular who’ll have some seasons better than that because a few more fly balls leave the park.
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9. Brandon Williamson, LHP
Williamson is 6-foot-6 and has easy velocity, getting into the mid-90s with a hammer curveball, but his control hasn’t always been there and he had some durability concerns in college in addition to higher walk rates than you’d like. He could try to be more of a finesse/command guy and take a little off the fastball, or just attack guys with power and accept that the tradeoff for more missed bats is a few more walks. Either way, a lefty like him, with his size and power stuff, has a lot of paths to major-league value from mid-rotation starter to high-leverage reliever.
10. Juan Then, RHP
The Mariners dropped Then’s arm slot to closer to 3/4 from its previous high 3/4 slot and saw his stuff tick up to where he touched 99 mph and sat 95 mph. His secondary stuff lags behind, although he’s in a better position now for a slider or changeup, and his command is just fair, so there’s more reliever chance than starter but enough of the latter (he’s only 21) to keep developing him in that role.
11. Isaiah Campbell, RHP
Campbell fills the strike zone with a fastball/slurve combination and could be an innings-eating starter if he holds up, as he missed 2018 with elbow soreness and has had minor hiccups since.
12. Connor Phillips, RHP
Phillips was the first junior college player selected in the 2020 draft, an athletic 19-year-old with arm strength who gets good ride on his fastball and has a future-plus slider. He doesn’t throw strikes yet, in part because it’s hard for him to repeat his delivery, and is probably more like a high schooler than a college product in his feel for pitching.
13. Sam Carlson, RHP
Carlson missed all of 2018 and 2019 after Tommy John surgery, and of course missed 2020. He’d been up to 97 mph before the surgery and long layoff but was more 91-94 mph in instructs with an above-average changeup, while he’s still in search of an average breaking ball. Carlson looks the part of an innings-eater at 6-foot-4 and 200-ish pounds, but the Mariners have to build his innings back up. Even getting back on the mound after that long of a layoff is a win.
14. Milkar Perez, 3B
Signed out of Nicaragua for $175,000, Perez is a plus power/plus arm third baseman who just has to hit enough to let the power play. He’s listed at 5-foot-11, 173 pounds, compact but strong, already more physically mature than other guys signed in the same class (like Noelvi Marte, who was born on the same day as Perez). He’s a little stiff at third but has good hands, and his arm is ridiculous. He’s a switch-hitter who just has to get to a 40 hit tool to be a big leaguer of some sort, and a 45 would make him a strong regular at third because of his power.
15. Alberto Rodriguez, OF
Rodriguez was the return in the trade that sent Taijuan Walker to Toronto, getting the Mariners a player they’d liked when he was still an amateur free agent. Rodriguez is a thickly built center fielder who’s more athletic than he might first appear to be, running average with an above-average arm, but he’s a hitter first and foremost, with a very advanced plan at the plate and exit velocities that have improved quickly since he signed. He has to maintain his conditioning and might eventually end up in right field, but the bat will be the main factor that determines his major-league value.
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16. Zach DeLoach, OF
DeLoach, the Mariners’ second-round pick in 2020, has feel to hit, with a history of strong walk and strikeout rates, but his swing is flat and doesn’t generate power, which made me wonder before the draft if some team might take him to try to optimize his launch angle so the contact he’s already making starts leaving the park.
17. Levi Stoudt, RHP
Stoudt was up to 95 mph for Lehigh University in his draft year when the Mariners took him in the third round, but needed Tommy John surgery before he ever threw a pitch in pro ball. This fall, he was 94-97 mph with a plus changeup and some improvement to the breaking ball. He’s still getting stronger and hasn’t faced much good competition other than struggling in his one summer on the Cape, but the Mariners might have found a future starter here.
18. Adam Macko, LHP
Macko was born in Slovakia and happened to attend an elementary school with a T-ball team, so he started playing the game on a whim, then, when it turned out he was pretty good, kept playing when his family moved to Ireland (for a team called, coincidentally, the Mariners), and then on to Alberta. The (Seattle) Mariners took him in the seventh round in 2019, and by this fall he was 92-95 mph with two promising breaking balls, giving him at least a good shot to see the majors as a left-handed reliever, but with starter upside.
19. Jake Fraley, OF
Fraley is a slap-and-go sort of hitter who can run a little and will make coaches like him with his style of play, although his lack of power or ability to play center as a regular limits him to fourth outfielder status.
20. Austin Shenton, 3B
Shenton has a solid swing and projects to at least average power, so though he might not be able to stay at third base, he has an outside chance to hit enough to profile in right field.
2021 impact
The Mariners do not have five better starting pitchers than Logan Gilbert on their major-league depth chart, so there’s that. Kelenic should be up this year, but not until at least June. Fraley should be somewhere on the roster.
Sleeper
Last year’s was Noelvi Marte and that is still absolutely true — if he performs this year, he’ll almost certainly be on the list. His birthday buddy Milkar Perez is one to watch too, although he doesn’t have Marte’s upside.
(Photo of Kelenic: Norm Hall / Getty Images)
