The Mets were busy after Thanksgiving, with a few minor signings and one big splash, adding centerfielder Starling Marte to address the hole in their outfield left by the presumed departure of Michael Conforto.
Marte hit free agency off a career year, one that saw him draw walks at the highest rate of his career, and also hit for a .369 BABIP that is well out of line with his career norms. His calling card has long been his defense, but Outs Above Average, the defensive metric MLB.com derives from Statcast data, had him as barely above the major-league median in 2021. He was about a 3-3.5 win player before the truncated 2020 season, and assuming some regression to the mean next year, he’ll probably be about that for the Mets in 2022 as well. With Conforto leaving and no real center-field prospect coming up behind him in the system — unless the Mets choose to move prospect Ronny Mauricio there from shortstop, which is a possibility — they needed to look outside to fill center field. (And Mauricio could also move to third base before he moves off the dirt.)
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The Mets actually got above-average defense in center last year from Brandon Nimmo, but injuries bedeviled him yet again, and he failed to qualify for the batting title for the third time in the past four non-pandemic years. It’s possible that moving him back to a corner will help him avoid some injuries, so whatever the Mets lose in value from taking him out of center would be gained from keeping him on the field for more games. That said, if Marte’s dip with the glove last year is a sign of age — he’ll be 33 in 2022, definitely around the age where most players’ range declines — and his BABIP reverts to his pre-2021 levels, there’s a good chance this contract doesn’t make the Mets better in 2022-23 than they were last year. It may just allow them to hold serve and Marte isn’t productive enough to justify his salary by Year 4.
The signing removes the one true center fielder from the free-agent market, leaving several would-be contenders without a clear solution in center for the coming season. Detroit, Cincinnati and Philadelphia all received very little production from center field in 2021 and should be looking for upgrades. With Marte signed, however, there isn’t another quality center-field option available in free agency. If Pittsburgh were to make Bryan Reynolds available in a trade, they’d be doing so without any real competition from free agents who can fill the same role he does.
The Mets also signed Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar to two-year deals, both of which seem like great additions for a bit more than the players are likely to be worth. Canha has solid OBP skills, boosted last year by a league-leading 27 times hit by pitch, which is sort of a skill but less so than patience, without more than average power outside of one outlier season. He’s an average defender in center and above-average in either corner; for the Mets, his addition could mean an outfield of Canha-Marte-Nimmo, which would be strong defensively and probably one of the best outfields for OBP in the majors. Jeff McNeil could be the everyday second baseman, with Escobar taking over at third, which would leave Dom Smith without a job unless the NL adopts the DH next year. Or they could move Escobar to second, trade McNeil (and Smith?) and sign someone else for third base.
The signings give new Mets GM Billy Eppler a ton of options, including major-league depth to trade for starting pitching, which seems like the team’s biggest need after this weekend.
The Cardinals signed Steven Matz to a four-year deal, much to Stephen Cohen’s chagrin, and although Matz’s health history makes a deal of that length a riskier one than it would be for the typical starter, he is exactly what the Cardinals needed. This feels like a pre-emptive strike before injuries or regression hit their rotation for 2022.
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Matz has been an above-average starter three times in the past four seasons, outside of a disastrous 2020 season with the Mets, with a plus changeup and above-average fastball, solid-average control but no real average breaking ball. His slider has been a negative for him for several years, and he might be a better starter if he used it less or junked it entirely. The Cardinals don’t need him to be an ace; they need a third starter, and he can be a twice-through-the-order guy for them and still fill a critical need.
This may just bump Dakota Hudson, who returned at the end of the year from 2020 Tommy John surgery, to the fifth spot in the rotation, but it also provides a backstop for the team if Hudson flops in his second go-round as a starter. Hudson’s ERA in 2019 was 3.35, but his FIP was a whopping 4.93; he led the NL in walks, which is (checks notes) bad, and had an extremely high strand rate that he’s unlikely to repeat. He also struggles to get left-handed batters out — they had a .369 OBP against him in 2019, before his injury — due to his low slot and lack of an average changeup. He’s not a good bet to be a league-average starter in 2022, even if he’s completely recovered. It’s smart of the Cardinals to acknowledge this and plan accordingly.
Four years and $44 million for Matz is probably optimistic, as he’s never pitched enough to qualify for the ERA title, and he’s been healthy and/or ineffective twice in the six seasons he’s spent in the majors. It’s not outrageous or even a bad deal for the Cardinals, but, coupled with the Eduardo Rodriguez contract, it signals that teams are valuing starting pitching very highly, and the top free-agent starters still out there — Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray, et. al. — should be aiming high, looking for five years and higher AAVs than they might have expected going into the winter.
(Top photo of Steven Matz: Cole Burston / Getty Images)
