The Rays’ system is the best in baseball, and I don’t think it’s especially close. They have the most guys in my Top 100, and they have at least a half-dozen guys who you could argue would be in the next 50, and they have a major-league-ready starter who didn’t make their top 20 (I admit he fell prey to my bias toward upside, but still, he’s good). They’ve drafted better the last few years, and their efforts in international free agency are starting to bear more fruit beyond Wander Franco. The Rays need this kind of system to be contenders, but fortunately for them (and their owners), they have it.
To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2021, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Wander Franco, SS (Top 100 rank: No. 1)
From the Top 100: Franco nearly showed up in the majors during the Rays’ run to the World Series, traveling with the team in October, and then played five games in his native Dominican Republic before a biceps injury ended his winter. He retains the top spot on this list as he approaches his 20th birthday this March 1, but I’d bet he loses it this year by spending a good chunk of 2021 in the majors, because he wasn’t that far off even when 2019 ended. Franco has ridiculous hand speed and one of the best batting eyes in professional baseball, rarely striking out and making consistent, hard contact even as a teenager, with the projection of above-average power as he matures. He hit a combined .327/.398/.487 as an 18-year-old in Low A and High A in 2019, while striking out just 7 percent of the time. Franco is a shortstop now and has the hands, actions and arm to stay there, although he could move to second or third if he loses any foot speed as he gets into his 20s. He’s going to play a skill position regardless, and his bat will make him a star at any of those spots, with high averages and OBPs early while the power develops, boasting the ceiling of an MVP candidate at his peak.
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2. Luis Patiño, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 16)
From the Top 100: Patiño was the main prospect coming back to the Rays in the Blake Snell trade and could end up taking Snell’s spot in the Rays’ rotation by the middle of 2021. Working mostly as a reliever for the Padres in 2020, Patiño was up to 99 and sat 96-97, with very high spin on both the four-seamer and his plus slider, with batters whiffing on 18 percent of the 61 sliders he threw. His mid- to upper-80s changeup can also flash plus, although he has to get the pitch down more frequently, missing too often in the middle-up part of the zone. His arm is very quick, with a little effort to the delivery and some cutoff when he lands, but he’s very balanced and stays well over the rubber, and his extension out front — as high as 7.6 feet — is among the best in the majors. He could be a No. 1 starter with this three-pitch mix as long as he develops his command and stays healthy.
3. Brendan McKay, LHP (Top 100 rank: No. 33)
From the Top 100: McKay was a top 20 prospect in the game going into 2020, but he tested positive for COVID-19 in July, and then had surgery on his left shoulder in August that ended his season. Pre-surgery, McKay showed exquisite command with an above-average fastball and plus changeup as well as two breaking balls, although he barely used the change in his major-league time in 2019 and right-handed batters made him pay for it. His delivery was not violent or high-effort, and he’s a superb fielder, so if the velocity comes back he’d be the same high-floor prospect he was before. He might still hit occasionally, but he was already showing he’s a pitcher first and foremost and that he’d need a lot more reps at the plate to make him a viable two-way player. We’ll just have to see how well he comes back from the knife.
4. Vidal Brujan, 2B (Top 100 rank: No. 35)
From the Top 100: I thought Bruján might get a callup for the Rays during their pennant run, giving them another infielder, right-handed bat off the bench, and possible pinch runner, although there’s still no obvious place for him to play right now in St. Petersburg. Bruján has gotten much stronger since the Rays first signed him, when he was somewhere near 120 pounds, and is now driving the ball with more authority without any real change to his swing or ability to make contact. He’s a 70 runner and plus defender at second, and a switch-hitter who’s much better batting left-handed, with large platoon splits the last two years in the minors. The Rays had him, Wander Franco and Taylor Walls at their alternate site, so all three players moved around the field, with Bruján getting reps at short, second and in center field, which might be a hint at how he’ll debut in the majors — playing multiple positions while waiting for a full-time job to open up at second or in center. He could be an All-Star at either spot, and probably could be someone’s shortstop if they were willing to bet on his bat and speed while accepting more average defense.
5. Randy Arozarena, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 45)
From the Top 100: So … he’s not actually that good, but he’s good, and certainly enough to be a regular in an outfield corner, even if he’s no longer hitting 7-8 homers a month. Arozarena never showed this kind of power in the minors, but he did hit the ball hard everywhere he played, and in 2020 he boosted his launch angle so that far more of those hard-hit balls became Barrels (thus very likely to become hits). He’s not a plus runner but has good instincts on the bases and in the outfield, where he projects to be at least above average in a corner. The Arozarena with the flat swing we saw in 2019 and earlier was more like a fourth outfielder with some everyday upside, but with contact this hard and now a launch angle near 10 percent, he’s more like a 25-30 homer guy who could hit fourth in any lineup. Arozarena was arrested in Mexico this offseason following a situation involving a custody dispute, but was released when his former partner did not want to press charges.
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6. Xavier Edwards, SS/2B (Top 100 rank: No. 52)
From the Top 100: Edwards went to Tampa Bay in the Tommy Pham trade but has yet to play a pro game for the Rays due to the pandemic. He’s a natural shortstop who played more second base in the Padres’ system, although the Rays might try him back at shortstop to maintain some versatility and see if his speed and arm stroke are good enough to play there. He’s a plus runner with great bat-to-ball skills and quick wrists, generating good bat speed that should translate into fringe-average power when he fills out — although without that, he’s going to have a hard time generating enough extra-base power to be a regular. His ultimate ceiling depends on that, and whether he stays at short, or perhaps becomes a plus defender at second or even in center field.
7. Josh Lowe, OF (Top 100 rank: No. 59)
From the Top 100: Lowe had shoulder surgery that would have kept him out until at least May of 2020 had there been a season but instead got the entire year to rehab and will be good to go whenever spring training starts. He was a first-rounder who didn’t produce at all until 2019, when he tightened his approach at the plate and improved his offense across the board, hitting for more power and stealing 30 bags, while playing plus defense in center. Lowe still swings and misses, but he does everything else you want: he runs deep counts and takes walks, hits for plus power, runs the bases well, and shows excellent range in center. His swing can get a bit long but he repeats it well, and you’ll take 150 strikeouts a year with all of the rewards he offers on both sides of the ball.
8. Shane Baz, RHP (Top 100 rank: No. 69)
From the Top 100: Baz has the pure stuff to be a No. 1 starter but needs to work on the non-stuff aspects of pitching to get there, so he’s probably one of the guys most hurt by a lost season where he didn’t get reps facing live hitters in games. He did spend the summer at the Rays’ alternate site, where he was one of the youngest guys there, and still showed the same quality of pitches as before. He’s hit 100 mph in the past and can hold 95-97 as a starter, with a power slider that will probably end up in the 88-90 range and hit 92 in a relief outing in the AFL in 2019. He does need to improve his changeup, the weakest offering he has, although he gets good fading action on the pitch, and he definitely has to improve his command and control, which isn’t helped by the fact that his arm is late relative to his landing. He gets huge spin rates on his fastball and both breaking balls, and he’s going to miss bats in any role. Whether he’s a starter will depend on his getting into games and showing improvement in his command and feel to pitch.
9. Cole Wilcox, RHP
Wilcox was a first-round talent but slipped to the third round as a draft-eligible sophomore who was expected to command a big bonus, which he did, getting $3.3 million from the Padres before he went to Tampa Bay in the Blake Snell trade. Wilcox has been up to 100 mph and can pitch comfortably at 92-97 mph, with a solid-average changeup and inconsistent slider that is plus when it’s on, although his fastball can be true and he doesn’t repeat his arm stroke well enough for average command yet. He has No. 1/No. 2 starter upside, or top-end reliever potential.
10. Shane McClanahan, LHP
McClanahan was the third of the new members of the Mark Kiger All-Stars, making his major-league debut in the playoffs, in 2020, hitting triple digits from a low slot with a slider that is extremely hard for left-handed batters to see, let alone hit. The Rays have worked him as a starter and he has a decent changeup as a third option, but right-handers see the ball well out of his hand, hitting all seven of the homers he surrendered in 2019, and he might have to move to the bullpen given his arm slot.
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11. Ronaldo Hernandez, C
If Hernandez were a no-doubt catcher, he’d be a top-100 prospect based on his bat, but his framing and receiving probably won’t work at the position unless we get the automated strike zone in the near future. Hernandez can hit, however. The Colombian backstop rarely strikes out, doing so in less than 14 percent of his pro plate appearances, and is strong enough for hard contact, but he struggled with his approach in High A in 2019, getting too aggressive early in counts, and needs reps to work on his plan at the plate.
12. Brent Honeywell, RHP
Honeywell has undergone four operations on his elbow since he last pitched in a game at the end of 2017, including Tommy John surgery early in 2018 and a cleanup procedure this past December. He’s supposed to be ready for spring training and has been back up to 95 mph since rehabbing from the surgery, along with a plus changeup and screwball that he can break out a few times a game for swings-and-misses. We just have no idea how he’ll hold up at this point, or how much he’ll be able to pitch in the short term. He had No. 2 starter upside before all the arm woes.
13. Joe Ryan, RHP
Ryan can get up to 96 mph, with great deception in his delivery and a plus changeup, helping him finish second in all of minor-league baseball in strikeouts back in 2019. He doesn’t have an average breaking ball, but even without it looks like a fifth starter between his control and the changeup.
14. JJ Goss, RHP
Goss was the 36th overall pick in 2019, a first-round talent who had all the ingredients you want to see in a high school right-hander — a good frame, a repeatable delivery, athleticism, velocity up to 96 mph, an above-average slider, some feel for a changeup already — but needs pro innings to continue to develop. I’m still bullish on him.
15. Taylor Walls, SS
Walls has improved his defense in the Rays’ eyes and might be plus at shortstop, no worse than a 55, with good contact skills that could make him a regular there on a second-division team or a very useful utility player on a good team.
16. Osleivis Basabe, SS
Basabe was one of the players the Rays got from Texas for Nate Lowe, and he’s the cousin of Luis Alexander Basabe, who plays for the Giants. Osleivis just turned 20 in September and has shown the ability to make hard contact while also rarely striking out in the low minors. He’s a shortstop now but is likely to end up at third base.
17. Blake Hunt, C
Hunt came with Patiño and Wilcox in the Snell trade. He’s a potentially plus defender with excellent receiving skills and a 55 arm. He’s a power-over-hit guy at the plate now, which pushes him more to backup status than regular, but if he develops more as a hitter, he could end up an everyday guy.
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18. Heriberto Hernandez, C
Hernandez came with Basabe in the Lowe trade, and would be the better prospect if you believe he can stay at catcher. His bat should let him play somewhere on the diamond, with a very sound, compact stroke with the stride and weight transfer to let him drive the ball for future power. If he ends up in an outfield corner, he might still be a regular.
19. Seth Johnson, RHP
Johnson was a converted infielder at Campbell who started hitting the mid-90s when he moved to the mound and touched 98 mph with a surprisingly good delivery, although his fastball didn’t have great characteristics and his secondary stuff lagged behind. His changeup improved quite a bit in 2020, and it can get up to 90, while he’s still working on breaking stuff. He’s 23 but has more upside given his limited pitching experience.
20. Nick Bitsko, RHP
The Rays’ first-round pick out of a high school in eastern Pennsylvania, Bitsko didn’t pitch in a game before the shutdown in March, then had to have shoulder surgery to repair his right labrum after signing, so his prognosis is uncertain, other than he probably wouldn’t be ready to go if spring training were to start on time. He’s been up to 96 mph with a plus curveball and good extension out front, with clear effort to the delivery, and mid-rotation upside when healthy.
Others of note
Lefty Josh Fleming has a low-90s sinker with a good changeup and 55-60 control, generating a hilarious 63.5 percent groundball rate in five starts and two relief appearances last year. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats and guys with this profile often become homer-prone in the majors, especially with the juiced ball the last few years, but he has fourth starter upside, too… Lefty John Doxakis has good command of a bucket of average pitches without much ceiling but a pretty good chance to sneak into the majors as a fifth starter in the next year or two if we get the minors going. … Right-hander Taj Bradley is working in the mid-90s now with an improved, tighter slider; he was only 17 years and 3 months when the Rays took him in the fifth round in 2018 and won’t even turn 20 until March, so there may still be more projection left. … Outfielder Jhon Diaz would be top 20 in most systems, but the 5-foot-10 left-handed hitter hasn’t played a pro game yet and has to go behind some of the more proven prospects in this system even with his evident talent at the plate. … Greg Jones is an 80 runner and ridiculous athlete but is erratic at shortstop — I think he needs to go to center field — and approaches at-bats like a power hitter, which he isn’t; he has a lot of untapped potential but a long way to go in development. … Shortstop Alejandro Pie just turned 19 at the end of January; he’s already past 6-foot-4 and might outgrow shortstop, but he’s filling out well and looks like he’ll have the impact to profile at third base. … Drew Strotman was hurt in 2019 but flashed mid- to upper-90s velocity upon his return, so the Rays added him to their 40-man … Right-hander Michael Mercado is back from Tommy John surgery and has looked good in workouts; he needs innings, as he hasn’t pitched since August 2018, and was all projection back in high school when the Rays took him in the second round in 2017. … Alika Williams should stay at shortstop and has good bat-to-ball skills, but with grade 40 power at most he’s likely to be a backup. … Lefty Ian Seymour, their second-round pick in 2020, had an average fastball and grade-55 changeup at Virginia Tech but hit 97 mph for the Rays after signing; with a funky, deceptive delivery, he was effective even with ordinary velocity, although the lack of an average breaking ball limits his ceiling. … Infielder Ford Proctor played for Perth in the Australian League this winter and caught nine games, continuing an experiment that seems to have legs. If he can really catch, he could be an everyday guy, because he has the bat-to-ball skills to hit enough for the position. … Neraldo Catalina came from the Mets for Wilmer Font; he’s in the mid- to upper-90s as a reliever, and at 6-6 at least has the build to try to start … Carlos Garcia is a fastball-slider relief prospect, touching the upper 90s with an 84-86 mph slider. … Alexander Ovalles was the third player in the Lowe trade, a tweener outfielder who isn’t a true center fielder but whose handsy swing won’t profile in a corner. … They just signed Carlos Colmenarez in the most recent international signing period, which was delayed to January 2021; he’s a speedy shortstop with a plus arm and good package of tools, but he’s also 17 years old without any pro experience.
2021 impact
Arozarena is obviously their left fielder and possibly their cleanup hitter on Opening Day. Fleming is in the rotation; McKay could join him if healthy, and McClanahan probably sees big-league innings somewhere in 2021. Patiño has big-league experience, too, but I think he spends most of the year developing in Triple A if possible. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Walls or Brujan debut this summer if there’s an injury in the middle infield.
Sleeper
My pick last year was Goss, and it still is. Basabe was my sleeper pick for the Rangers last winter. I’d also keep an eye on Bradley if his projection is turning into present velocity gains.
(Photo of Franco: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
