2021 MLB season predictions: Keith Law’s win totals for every team, plus awards and early postseason picks

I’ve done extensive predictions of every upcoming season for at least the last 11 years, with standings and award winners and the like, and despite the fact that I always point out that these are for entertainment purposes only and I have no actual effect on the games or any individual players, people still get mad about them. Those same people won’t see this because none of them ever reads the intro anyway; they just hit Ctrl-F and look for how many wins I predicted their favorite team will get this year. Unless I start to throw a lot harder in the next 48 hours, though, nothing I do or say will make one iota of difference to the real-world standings, so just enjoy the predictions below for what they are.

AL East

• The Yankees are clearly the class of this division, and arguably of the American League, even though their biggest acquisitions this winter were two pitchers coming off injuries — one of whom, Corey Kluber, hasn’t shown anywhere near the velocity he needs so far this spring. Even if they see some regression from DJ LeMahieu and Gio Urshela, they should get full, healthy seasons from Aaron Hicks and Gleyber Torres, while Clint Frazier should at least produce more than he has in his previous trials. They have some starting pitching depth that wasn’t there in the last few years as well.

• The Blue Jays were aggressive this winter and could easily push themselves into the 90-win range, enough for a wild-card spot. The signings of George Springer and Marcus Semien improve their offense and defense, and they took some low-cost fliers on the likes of Steven Matz, Kirby Yates (which already hasn’t worked out), and Robbie Ray. They could still use a real third baseman, but should see more offense from Vlad Jr. this year and get a boost from Alejandro Kirk’s bat.

• The Rays traded their best pitcher in Blake Snell, and might be without reliever Nick Anderson for half the season or more, so this team is worse on paper now than it was in 2020, even if you want to believe that Francisco Mejía will finally hit like he did in the minors or that Tampa can get Chris Archer back to where he was four years ago. They’re still a possible contender, but their margin for error is smaller this year. Getting Wander Franco into this lineup by early May might be their best move.

• The Red Sox had an above-average offense last year and should do so again, maybe slipping into the league’s top 3, but their run prevention was the worst in the AL last year and I see no cause for optimism on that front. Even the return of Eduardo Rodríguez, assuming he’s fully recovered from COVID-related cardiomyopathy, won’t make this an average rotation.

• The Orioles were right at the league median in run scoring and in OBP last year, but I don’t see that recurring with the moves they’ve made (Maikel Franco?) and imminent regression from Ryan Mountcastle, while their rotation is also likely to be a huge weakness, although at least this year it’ll include at least two prospects in Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin, either of whom could stick in that role and give the Orioles their first long-term starters since they dealt Dylan Bundy.

AL Central

• The Twins made just two moves of note this winter, re-signing Nelson Cruz and adding Andrelton Simmons. The latter could be one of the most significant signings of the year if he gets back to the player he was in 2018, prior to two injuries to the same ankle that appear to have cost him on the field and at the plate. Minnesota’s pitching staff misses a lot of bats and they’re not very groundball-oriented, so his impact might have been higher elsewhere, but a healthy Simmons on defense could do more to improve their run prevention than any pitcher the Twins were likely to sign.

• I thought this might be the year to predict a big White Sox jump into the 90-win range or more, but they had a few questions before Eloy Jiménez was lost for all or most of the season and they don’t have an easy answer for that new one. They have a high variance around that 86-win prediction, depending more than anything on how good the rotation is.

• Cleveland has really squandered an opportunity now that ownership chose to trade Francisco Lindor without using the money saved to address the gaping wound that is their current outfield. They still have one of the league’s best pitching staffs, even without Carlos Carrasco, but they were third from last in the AL in run scoring last year and will be in a race for the bottom in 2021.

• Both the Royals and the Tigers are in the “bad, but in a fun way” category, as both teams are likely to bring up a lot of prospects and to really let them play, either to start the year or by mid-June. The Royals are further along in their building process and have more interesting young hitters in their lineup already, while both have waves of starting pitching coming.

AL West

• The Astros coasted to the division title in 2017, 2018, and 2019, winning over 100 games each year, and while I don’t think they’ll see triple digits in 2021, they should win this division handily even without making any substantial additions this winter – and losing George Springer to free agency. This would be the year to go all-in one more time, with Carlos Correa a free agent after the season, and probably not much help coming from the farm system this season now that Forrest Whitley is out.

• Angels fans, once again, asked their team for some pitching, and they got José Quintana and Alex Cobb, which might make them a win or two better but certainly isn’t getting Mike Trout back to the playoffs where he belongs.

• The A’s have beaten projections and predictions many times before, but that rotation looks suspect, and they’re likely to get below-average production from the outfield corners and maybe the middle infield, and the only possible source of depth I see is if AJ Puk and Daulton Jefferies hold up.

• Seattle is getting there, with some high-end prospects likely to see the majors this year, but it’s not likely to add up to many wins in 2021. It’s more a year of decisions, such as whether to keep or trade Mitch Haniger, or seeing whether Evan White or J.P. Crawford or Justin Dunn can be long-term pieces.

• It’s hard to imagine a Rangers lineup without Elvis Andrus – he was their Opening Day shortstop in 2009 – but they’re rebuilding now, and this year may be as hard as 2020 for their fans, although they’ll at least have Leody Taveras and David Dahl among players worth watching to see if they take steps forward.

NL East

• Could it be that the Mets, for so long the butt of jokes for their incompetent ownership, inexperienced (now former) GM, and injury-prone roster, are the best team in the NL East? It certainly looks that way, with the league’s best starting pitcher atop a rotation with a ton of upside if and when everyone’s healthy and a lineup that should move from around league-average into the top quarter of the league this year. If there’s a flaw here, it’s that they aren’t likely to get any help from their farm system if they need it, and would have to look to trades or waiver claims if there’s a significant injury.

• Atlanta might take a small step back in 2021 even though their long-term outlook is strong, with a rotation that’s short on durability and an offense that seems very likely to regress from its 5.80 runs/game (just barely behind the Dodgers for the best figure in the NL) as players like Travis d’Arnaud and the re-signed Marcell Ozuna come down from career years. Their farm system remains strong and has players who’ll probably fill in some of the big club’s most significant holes, including catcher and third base, within the next year.

• The Nationals still have the elite trio of arms atop their rotation, assuming Stephen Strasburg comes back healthy, and two superstars in their lineup in Juan Soto and Trea Turner, but they could see below-average offensive production at four or five lineup spots, while the last two rotation spots and the bullpen are both wobbly. I don’t think it’s reasonable to dismiss the playoff odds of any team with those three starters, even though here I have them falling a bit short.

• I could dream up a scenario where the Phillies get to 90-ish wins and make the playoffs, where Zach Eflin hits his ceiling and maybe Matt Moore has a big comeback, where somehow the bullpen comes together even though the personnel there haven’t changed that much, but I keep coming back to a lineup that is very good but isn’t good enough to overcome what was the second-worst run prevention unit in the NL last year and isn’t all that different in 2021.

• The Marlins might be an 80-win team in the NL Central, and I feel like this 74-win prediction sells short the level of talent we’ll see on their major-league roster over the course of 2021. Top prospect Jazz Chisholm might not be completely ready to hit in the majors, but he’s electric and toolsy and is their starting second baseman. Sixto Sánchez and Trevor Rogers are already appointment viewing, and could be joined by Edward Cabrera (currently on the IL with a bicep injury) and/or Braxton Garrett in the rotation this year, but their lineup will probably still be below-average this year and they’ll be lucky to finish above fourth.

NL Central

• The Cardinals‘ rotation is in a little bit of flux as they wait to see what Miles Mikolas can give them, but they’re likely to be among the stingier run-prevention units in the NL this year, especially since Jack Flaherty will have a normal (not COVID -delayed) season and their defense just got a lot better over at third base. I’m expecting good things from Dylan Carlson and their offense will also be better from the tradeoff of Kolten Wong for Nolan Arenado. The outfield beyond Carlson is sketchy, though, and the Cards didn’t address it at all this winter.

• The Brewers made a late push to improve after sitting much of the offseason out, grabbing bargain free agents in Kolten Wong and Jackie Bradley, Jr., which could give them the best defensive unit in the National League. They didn’t do anything to improve their offense, which was third-worst in the NL last year, with Christian Yelich and Bradley, Jr., the only regulars who had a WRC+ over 100 (league average) last year, and it’ll be a battle between their run-prevention (which could be among the NL’s best) and run-scoring to see which wins out.

• The Reds might have been the club most hurt by the shortened season in 2020, as several years of moves designed to turn the team from builder to contender, including several big trades and signings between July 2019 and March 2020, got them just a 60-game season where the team went 31-29, couldn’t get any fans in the gates, and ended up losing their No. 1 starter, their closer, and their shortstop this winter. They’re going to score fewer runs this year and give up more runs, and it’s hard to see that leading to better than a .500 record.

• The Cubs might have one above-average starter this year in Kyle Hendricks, with others who could be above-average but also have significant downside risk, and no depth behind those guys if they fail. They had the third-lowest runs allowed/game rate in the NL last year, but Yu Darvish and Jeremy Jeffress are gone, Craig Kimbrel’s decline appears to be continuing, and they seem set to give Jake Arrieta a lot of innings even though he was worse every year in Philadelphia. I think the offense could bounce back, but the worst-case scenario for this pitching staff is really bad.

• The Pirates don’t have anyone who projects as a league-average starting pitcher, and even though I see offensive improvement at several lineup spots, they had the fewest runs per game in the NL by 0.4 last year, with only Colin Moran and Ke’Bryan Hayes (in 95 PA) posting wRC+ figures over 93. Even if Gregory Polanco and Kevin Newman and Bryan Reynolds all improve this year at the plate, it’s not going to be enough to get the Pirates out of last unless someone else falls apart.

NL West

Trust me, there’s a little part of me that wanted to say the Padres would win this division, since I’ve spent the last several years talking up the Padres’ farm system and rebuild, and they were easily the one team that did the most this winter to try to improve for 2021. There is some chance they beat the Dodgers – maybe 10 percent, maybe a little more – but it’s not 50 percent or that close and picking them to win would be disingenuous. I just hope this race stays close, so the two best teams in the NL spend the year at each other’s throats, and we see games that matter for both clubs into late September. That’s not an implicit criticism of the Dodgers, by the way; they did go get a starter they didn’t really need, and brought back Justin Turner, but they could have easily skipped both moves and still been the favorites to win the division, especially if Gavin Lux becomes the player I thought he’d be before 2019 and Dustin May does what I think he can do in whatever role he has this year.

• The Padres won the offseason; I think they’ll also earn a playoff spot for their efforts, and in all their moves they still left themselves with some depth from their own system, as Mackenzie Gore should contribute this year and Luis Campusano might do the same.

• The Diamondbacks are a decent team in a division where being decent and $2 might buy you a Coke. Zac Gallen’s injury stings, but even if he gave them 200 innings this year, the rest of this rotation is almost certainly going to be below-average, and their lineup is probably going to fall below the median in run-scoring again too.

• The Giants have flirted a little with contention the last two years, missing out on the playoffs in 2020 on a tiebreaker, but it was illusory, based on some fluky offensive years by minor-league journeymen. While the system as a whole is headed in the right direction, the front office continues to make smart gambles on finding other journeymen who might have unrealized potential, like Kevin Gausman and Aaron Sanchez, who could be valuable in trade and will also make the big club more fun to watch.

• I don’t know where the Rockies go from here. They draft well, and I know there are people there trying to do good things in player development, but the major-league process is broken, and getting so little back for Nolan Arenado might leave them with the worst team in baseball. Figuring out baseball at altitude is no small challenge, but this front office has increased the level of difficulty through its own bad decisions, from the Arenado debacle to overspending on relievers in free agency and trades. There are still good reasons to watch – Trevor Story, Jon Gray on the right day, talented young players like Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers (if he can just stay on the field) and Ryan Rolison, but it might not add up to more than 60-odd wins, and fewer if they deal Story.

Postseason

Toronto over Tampa Bay
San Diego over Atlanta

NY Yankees over Toronto
Minnesota over Houston

LA Dodgers over San Diego
NY Mets over Cardinals

NY Yankees over Minnesota
LA Dodgers over NY Mets

NY Yankees over LA Dodgers

Awards

AL MVP: Anthony Rendon. The pick is always Mike Trout, but that’s the least interesting thing I could say, so here’s my best alternate. Rendon probably should have won last year, and if he’d shown the same power in 2020 that he did in 2019, maybe he would have, although the voters seemed too distracted by RBIs to notice Rendon’s elite defense and high OBP.

NL MVP: Fernando Tatis, Jr. Halfway through the 2020 season, this appeared to be Tatis’s award to win, but a huge drop in his BABIP in September dropped him to fourth in the final vote. The best player in the NL right now is either him or Mookie Betts, and if Tatis, Jr., stays healthy this whole year, he’s my bet to win.

AL Cy Young: Lucas Giolito. Giolito’s huge breakout in 2019 made him a top 5 starter in the AL, and after a horrible first start in 2020, he was every bit as good for the remainder of the short season. It won’t hurt with the voters that the White Sox should score a lot of runs again this year too.

NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom. I know this is an uninspired choice, but he really is the best pitcher in baseball right now, winning the award in 2019, finishing second in the NL in fWAR last year behind Yu Darvish, and by all accounts looking like he’s in mid-season form already this spring.

AL RoY: Randy Arozarena. This is a boring pick, and I’ve already said I don’t think he’s actually a 50-homer guy or whatever pace he was on last fall, but he does hit the ball consistently hard and has a full-time job waiting for him. One sleeper here is Alejandro Kirk, a part-time player right now who could be the Jays’ primary catcher sooner rather than later; and Kirk’s teammate Nate Pearson, who would be my pick if he were healthy – but he’s not going to be ready to start the season, and staying healthy has always been a problem for him. I might have gone with Alex Kirilloff had the Twins not optioned him two weeks ago in what looks like a service-time move.

NL RoY: Dylan Carlson. I’m a Carlson fan, and the better at bats he took after his return from the minors in 2020 showed why I believed in him before last season and ranked him 9th in all of baseball going into 2021. He also has an Opening Day job, with no service-time manipulation. Other candidates could include Cristian Pache, Ian Anderson, and Sixto Sánchez.

(Photo: Getty; Cooper Neill, Christian Petersen, Al Bello)