The Martian Chronicles: Keith Law on Jasson Dominguez’s promotion, plus more Yankees and Red Sox prospects

TAMPA, FL - May 18: Tampa Tarpons outfielder Jasson Dominguez (12) at bat during the Low-A Florida State League regular season game between the St. Lucie Mets and the Tampa Tarpons on May 18, 2022 at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
By Keith Law
Sep 14, 2022

When the Yankees gave Jasson Dominguez $5 million back in 2019, when he was a 16-year-old free agent in the Dominican Republic, the hype was well ahead of the player – it would have been difficult for anyone that young to live up to the lofty praise and expectations laid on his shoulders. Then the pandemic hit, delaying his pro debut until 2021, and the Yankees chose (sensibly) to start him in extended spring training, so he didn’t appear in an official game until that June and had a solid but unspectacular showing over the rest of the summer, mostly in Low A, where he was among the youngest players at 18. After a rough April this year, however, he’s taken off and has improved so much as the season has progressed that the Yankees challenged him with a final-week promotion to Double-A Somerset, where he debuted on Tuesday night.

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I caught him there and in his final High-A game with Hudson Valley, who played at Wilmington on Saturday, and got both sides of Dominguez – the wildly toolsy, dynamic, explosive player who’s going to excel on both sides of the ball; and the young, inexperienced guy who’s going to have to make further adjustments as he races up the ladder. Saturday night was a ridiculous showing for him. He homered from both sides of the plate, including a missile he hit left-handed and a right-handed homer I didn’t even think he hit all that solidly, as well as two more hard-hit balls and a tremendous diving catch in center. It’s plus-plus power, 70 speed and good swings both ways.

On Tuesday night, Dominguez made his first start in Double A, leading off and serving as the designated hitter for the Patriots, and went 0 for 5 with a pair of punchouts. He seemed to struggle most with changing speeds – he was on breaking stuff, which isn’t surprising for a hitter who always has the platoon advantage, but his one swinging strikeout was on an 89 mph fastball middle-up from a lefty, a pitch he should have at least squared up, if not clobbered. As pitchers went fastball-changeup and back, however, he was slower to adjust. That may be his next developmental hurdle. It’s true centerfield and 30-30 upside, though, and more than enough command of the strike zone to get him there in time. I imagine this promotion came with the goal of getting him at least ready for a callup next September, especially if centerfield should be, um, available.

Trey Sweeney was the Yankees’ first-round pick in 2021, out of Eastern Illinois, but the 22-year-old had a very disappointing full-season debut in High A, hitting .241/.350/.415 even though he was slightly old for the level. The Yanks moved him up to Double A a week ago, as he had at least been getting on base at a good clip in the second half. He’s very athletic, a plus runner with a great body that might still have some projection left to it, but there’s too much swing and miss here, even against mediocre pitching from Double A Portland on Tuesday night. I counted at least six whiffs, plus one dropped foul tip that would have ended the at-bat (he was caught looking after that), and they came on multiple pitch types. He’s not a shortstop long-term, but looks athletic enough to handle third, with enough arm. When the Yankees took him 20th last year, the main question was whether he could hit good pitching, or had just fattened up on weaker competition in a non-major conference. I think that jury is still out.

• Right-hander Yoendrys Gomez started the game for Somerset and struggled from the outset, giving up three runs in the first and five in total, on eight hits and two walks in 3 2/3 innings with four strikeouts. He was 93-96 mph with an above-average changeup that he needed to use a lot more, while he struggled with both breaking balls, hanging a slew of curves and command. He also worked way too hard to try to get to his glove side and often overextended while doing so. I’ve seen Gomez before and this was a step up in velocity but a step back in the rest of the package. I’d definitely like to see him go to the changeup more often, especially to lefties, rather than throwing meh breaking stuff right into their bats.

Ceddanne Rafaela (Tom Priddy / Four Seam Images via AP)

• Portland center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, who has emerged as one of Boston’s top prospects this year, continued to show tremendous bat speed, but also continues to show a lack of discipline at the plate, swinging at a lot of pitches he should take because he has such great bat control that he can put a lot of those pitches in play. His first hit came on an 0-2 curveball moving away from him where he just stuck the bat out to cover and blooped it into right; and his second on another curveball, left up, again with two strikes. His hardest-hit ball of the night was a flyout to center, once again on a curveball, where the ball just seemed to keep carrying. He’s stronger than his 155-pound frame implies, although there aren’t many big leaguers in recent memory as small and slight as he is, and it’s not a naturally projectable body. He can definitely play center, and even recorded an 8-6 forceout through aggressive play on a hard liner to him, getting to the ball quickly enough to make the throw and nail the runner at second.

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• Boston first baseman Niko Kavadas is one of a number of older hitters who put up big numbers in their full-season debuts this year in A-ball, but the 23-year-old has slowed down against the better competition of Double A. He hit .295/.460/.603 between Low and High A this year, but has punched out 30 times in 82 plate appearances since his promotion to Portland, including twice in six at-bats on Tuesday night against Somerset. He had four “hits” on the night, although two of them were routine pop-ups, one of which nobody caught on the infield, one of which was dropped by the left fielder, while another was a very soft single on a hanging curveball. He’s first base only, with a stocky body that he’ll have to work to maintain. Kavadas does have a strong sense of the strike zone, so the walk rates and solid OBPs are somewhat sustainable, but I think better stuff is going to continue to give him trouble.

• Lefty Shane Drohan started for Portland and ended with a strange stat line – eight strikeouts in four innings, five runs allowed, but just one earned. He’s 89-93 mph with an average to slightly above-average changeup, and lives primarily by those two pitches, as his mid-70s breaking ball is no better than a 45. Boston’s fifth-rounder in 2020 out of Florida State, Drohan is pretty slender for a starter and might be better suited to a swing role. He showed a small reverse platoon split this year, and if he’s going through an order just once, maybe with a little more fastball, he could be effective.

• The Yankees took right-hander Jack Neely in the 11th round in 2021, out of an Ohio State University, and the 6-foot-8 reliever has been on a roll recently, with 15 strikeouts across the 33 batters he’s faced since returning from a month-long layoff a few weeks ago. He was 94-96 mph on Saturday night, just putting it right by guys, barely using a fringy slider. The Yankees do tend to generate relievers who throw hard and get whiffs on the fastball, for what it’s worth.

• Catcher Anthony Seigler stayed healthy for most of 2022, playing in a career-best 97 games, with more walks (91) than strikeouts (82) between Low and High A. The Yankees’ first-round pick in 2018 has been plagued by injuries, and I’m not sold that he’s ever going to hit – he can work the count, but decent velocity ate him alive last week. But he has soft hands and an above-average arm. Given the paucity of solid defensive catchers, I wouldn’t rule out a late bounceback from Seigler, especially if he gets another healthy season under his belt next year. I was a little disappointed to see how many balls he dropped or bobbled on Saturday, despite what looked like solid form, and he also made plenty of more difficult pitches look easy during the game.

(Top photo of Jasson Dominguez: Cliff Welch / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Keith Law

Keith Law is a senior baseball writer for The Athletic. He has covered the sport since 2006 and prior to that was a special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays. He's the author of "Smart Baseball" (2017) and "The Inside Game: Bad Calls, Strange Moves, and What Baseball Behavior Teaches Us About Ourselves" (2020), both from William Morrow. Follow Keith on Twitter @keithlaw