With the 2021 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft — we’re just going to go with “the draft,” for short — now in the books, here’s my look at each team’s draft class. I focus on the top 10 rounds, since those are the picks that count toward each team’s bonus pool; players taken after the 10th round may be paid up to $125,000 without counting against the bonus pool, so the best prospects taken in rounds 11 through 20 rarely end up signing.
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The number in parentheses after each player’s name indicates the round in which he was taken; the letter A indicates that it was a supplemental pick between rounds, either for losing a free agent or from the competitive balance lottery. I do assume that all players taken in the top 10 rounds will sign, although each year there are roughly two to five players who don’t for various reasons.
Finally, I don’t grade drafts; I think that whole idea is absurd. The best I can offer is to tell you that I think teams did well or not well based on what I know about the players available at those picks.
Houston Astros
The Astros lost their first two picks as a penalty for their sign-stealing ways, which also meant they had the smallest bonus pool and didn’t have a lot of room for creativity. They did go for ceiling with their first pick, Nevada high school outfielder Tyler Whitaker (3), who has plus-plus power and a plus arm. He has a leak at the plate and swings and misses too often; I compared him earlier this spring to Nolan Gorman, but right-handed, and Gorman has had success in the minors by refining his approach. When you don’t pick until No. 87, this is the way to start.
High school shortstop Alex Ulloa (4) stays incredibly balanced through contact and seems comfortably using the whole field; if he can really stay at shortstop, this might be a steal. Ball State had its third player taken in the top five rounds in three years with Chayce McDermott (4C), a right-hander up to 96 mph with a sharp spike curveball and a hard, downward-breaking slider. He barely used a changeup all year and needs a better weapon for lefties, while commanding those two breaking balls is going to be very difficult, but there’s something here with his arm strength, and the delivery works fine.
Spencer Arrighetti (6) is 92-94 with a 50/55 slider and a four-pitch mix to potentially start; he transferred out of TCU to Navarro JC to Louisiana-Lafayette over the past three years, finding success as a starter for the Cajuns this spring. He’s listed at 6-foot-2 but looks taller than that. I’d definitely send him out as a starter.
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Their other picks in the top 10 rounds were all senior signs, although Quincy Hamilton (5) has always performed at the plate for Wright State and could surface in the majors if he can improve his defense in center field.
Los Angeles Angels
Yes, they took all pitchers. I wonder if they got to the 17th round and said, “Fuck it, we’re going to five blades.” They did need pitching, although I don’t think taking a bunch of college seniors to fill out your AZL roster really addresses the major-league team’s need for a No. 2 starter. Anyway, Sam Bachman (1) is electric when he’s healthy — up to 102 mph, with a slider at 90-92, two grade-70 pitches (if not 80s) that had no real rival in this draft class. He hasn’t stayed fully healthy, however, missing two weeks with a sore shoulder and coming back slowly but regaining all of his stuff before Miami (Ohio)’s season ended. This is definitely an all-in sort of pick — the Angels are betting that he’ll hold up and get there quickly, because it’s not like A-ball hitters are going to touch this stuff (and if they do, welp). Ky Bush (2) is left-handed and throws hard, two things that do, in fact, taste great together, at least when it comes to draft day. He’ll sit 93-95 and drives the ball down well from his 6-6 frame, occasionally with some natural cutting action to the pitch. He doesn’t have a great breaking ball, however, and works primarily with the fastball, although his changeup has some promise. He walked just 19 men in 78 innings for the Gaels this spring, his first year there after he transferred from Central Arizona Junior College.
LSU right-hander Landon Marceaux (3) had a lot of success for the Tigers with a marginal fastball, and he doesn’t offer any real projection for more velocity in his slender 6-foot frame. He gets some terrible swings on his off-speed stuff, however, with great spin on the slider and curveball, and might not need to throw any harder to get pro hitters out, although he’ll have to prove it at every level. I just keep thinking he’s trapped in a glass box. Gets me every time. Anyway, great pick.
Vanderbilt right-hander Luke Murphy (4) is a pure reliever, 92-93 with a decent changeup, with some deception from his slight cross-body delivery but trouble locating to his glove side.
South Carolina reliever Brett Kerry (5) is 88-92 with a plus slider that helped him strike out 38 percent of batters this year for the Gamecocks.
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The steal of the Angels’ draft was Braden Olthoff (9), a right-hander from Tulane who’s 92-94 with sink and throws everything for strikes with an advanced feel to pitch. He might have gone higher if he had a better breaking ball, but, like Marceaux, he gets the most out of what he has. Arizona right-hander Chase Silseth (11) has been up to 96 with a curveball that can show plus, and should at least go out as a starter, although he’ll need something for left-handed batters. Mason Albright (12) is a high school left-hander from IMG Academy who has outstanding command for his age but dropped off a little to 88-92 this spring, which might be why he slipped out of the top 10 rounds. Right-hander Mo Hanley (13) had Tommy John surgery this spring but was going to go in the top three rounds, maybe top two, had he stayed healthy, as the Virgin Islands native had been up to 95 with a plus slider for Division II Adrian College. If the Angels land their top 13 picks, that’s a pretty strong injection of pitching into their system.
Oakland A’s
All name jokes aside, shortstop Max Muncy (1) has plus bat speed and a very direct right-handed swing, more geared for line drives than power, along with great hands and above-average speed for shortstop. He needs to add some strength for harder contact and better bat control, but he offers a lot of projection and could be an everyday shortstop (or, at worst, second baseman) with high average and on-base skills. Between Muncy and last year’s first-rounder, Tyler Soderstrom, it looks like the A’s are focusing on high-upside high school bats with solid present hit tools, at least for now, which I think will yield better results than they’ve had with some other recent first-rounders.
Virginia third baseman Zack Gelof (2) hits like he’s afraid to strike out, but there’s some power in there if he goes to a conventional approach, and after some throwing trouble in the fall and early spring his arm seemed fine in mid-April. He could stay at third or move to second, and the power would help him profile as a regular at either spot.
Right-hander Mason Miller (3) was a graduate student at Gardner-Webb, perhaps the hardest-throwing MBA candidate ever, as he was up to 97 mph. His slider and changeup are both 45s, but he’s 6-5 and really gets on top of the ball well to generate a downhill plane. He’s probably not a starter in the end, but I’d send him out as one.
Cal State Northridge outfielder Denzel Clarke (4) is a plus runner with 55 power. He hit .324/.445/.570 this spring for the Matadors with above-average defense in center, but the lack of any summer or other wood-bat experience hurt his draft stock, and scouts questioned whether he’d continue to hit against better pitching. I had him in the second round on his tools. Vanderbilt catcher CJ Rodriguez (5) is a solid defender who almost never strikes out — 19 times in 229 PA this spring — but he hit just .249/.393/.378, and I don’t see how he’s more than an emergency backup. Grant Holman (6) had top-three-rounds potential but missed time this spring with bicep tendinitis, only throwing 47 so-so innings. He was mostly 92-94 and has a nasty splitter as well as a hard slider, enough weapons to see him as an above-average starter if he can stay healthy, which would be great value for this pick.
And my congratulations to Mariano Ricciardi (18), whom I’ve known since he was 3 years old, now a college graduate and an A’s draft pick.
Seattle Mariners
Has anyone checked the office closets at Safeco Field? I have a feeling they locked Jerry Dipoto up right before the draft. Dipoto’s teams almost never take high school players in the first round, but the Mariners led off with three straight prep players, two bats and an arm, before switching to college players, most of them seniors. Harry Ford (1) looks like a catcher, 5-10 and 200, but he can run and has tremendous bat speed and an approach that should lead to power. Scouts differed on his position, but some saw a future plus defender with a plus arm behind the plate. High school catchers are a risky class, but Ford’s chances to reach the big leagues don’t depend on him staying back there; it’s more that he could be a star if he does.
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Shortstop Edwin Arroyo (2) is listed as a switch-hitter and switch-pitcher, which is fun if not exactly all that useful for a position player. He’s a good bet to stay at shortstop and has short, direct swings on both sides of the plate, projecting to hit for average but not power. Even if he were to move off short, which I think is a minority view among scouts, he’d still be a potential regular at second.
Michael Morales (3) had one of the best deliveries in the draft class and has been up to 93-94, but this spring he was more 88-92 and saw his velocity taper off as the season went on. All three of his pitches project to 55 or better, and his body has plenty of room to fill out. Scouts love the way everything works and how coordinated he is for an 18-year-old. He’s a classic projection right-hander, and the Mariners followed my preferred strategy of taking a guy like him outside of the first round.
Texas A&M right-hander Bryce Miller (4) is 91-96 with a long arm path and some effort, showing a short slider that’s average at the top end of its velocity range, but he has 35 command, and getting him to repeat that delivery will be tough.
Cal Poly reliever Bryan Woo (6) had a 6.11 ERA this spring for the Mustangs; still, he’s 93-95 with a short arm action and misses bats with the pitch, which seems to get in on hitters quickly. He has a short low-80s slider that works as a change-of-pace pitch. Despite the ERA, he punched out a third of the batters he faced and walked only eight guys in 28 innings.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers got the best college pitcher in the class in Jack Leiter (1), not necessarily the guy with the most upside but the one with the best total package of upside (No. 2 starter), polish and potential speed to the majors (a year, maybe a little more). Leiter’s fastball can touch 95-96, but even at 90-93 he misses bats with it, and because it’s so effective, it makes his three other pitches all play up. He got the most swings and misses as a percentage of total pitches on the slider, according to data from Synergy Sports, but I think the curveball might be his best offering. He’s 6-1, tops, and not very physical or projectable from here — he’s a WYSIWYG prospect, what you see is what you get. I think the Rangers got a good one, and he’ll help them soon.
Oregon right fielder Aaron Zavala (2) hit .392/.525/.628 for the Ducks this spring, walking nearly once every five trips to the plate. He has some hand strength to drive the ball, but his stance is closed off enough that he doesn’t get to his power, not that you can complain about his production. He’s limited to a corner and might end up at first base, so the bat really matters. I wonder if just helping him rotate his hips more would get him to 55 game power, at which point he’d be more than just a regular.
Texas prep shortstop Cameron Cauley (3) is a “grinder” type of player, which means he’s short. He has loose hands but doesn’t show great bat control, and if he doesn’t stay at shortstop I’m not sure he has a path to be a regular. Iowa high school catcher Ian Moller (4) has plus raw power, but I didn’t speak to any scouts who thought he could hit, and he’ll need a lot of work on his receiving and footwork behind the plate. Canadian lefty Mitch Bratt (5) has projection but a long arm path that’s tough to repeat. He’s mostly in the upper 80s now with a low-70s curveball that he babies on release. Alabama right-hander Chase Lee (6) is a sidearmer who could move very quickly to the majors, working 93-95 with good life and a mid-80s slider, using both about equally. He looks like a good righty specialist.
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JoJo Blackmon (11) was a big football player in high school but committed to UAB for baseball; he’s a seven runner with a chance to hit, although his lack of repetitions probably gives him a long runway to the majors. Texas took Will Taylor (19) with a throwaway pick late in the draft. Taylor will end up the best player in the draft who doesn’t sign, and he’ll head to Clemson to play baseball and football, and I hope he can stay healthy and get enough reps at the plate to come back out as a first-rounder in three years.
(Photo of Sam Bachman: Doug Murray / Associated Press)
