Ten players from my preseason Top 100 prospects ranking, published in late February, made Opening Day rosters this year, including a couple of real surprises. Here are some quick thoughts on each of those decisions, along with their scouting capsules from the preseason rankings.
Atlanta Braves
Kyle Wright, RHP (61)
Wright made the Opening Day roster due, at least in part, to Cole Hamels’ injury, but it’s also an audition for the former No. 5 overall pick, as Atlanta has more potential starting pitchers than they have spots. Wright has the stuff to start, but his command, especially on his fastball, has not yet been good enough for him to help the team right now as a starting pitcher.
Preseason report: Wright has the makings of a durable mid-rotation or better starter and has had success up through Triple A, but his two major-league stints haven’t been as promising and he clearly has work to do on his command. Wright was throwing as hard as ever in the majors last year, and his slider, already a plus pitch, was even sharper. But major-league batters hit his four-seamer hard, and he seemed to have trouble commanding it. It’s up to 98 and has generally above-average (but not elite) spin, yet hitters put it in play 24 times against just 5 swings and misses. Those are small samples, but are concerning given the pitch’s characteristics. That’s the bad news; the good news is nobody hits his slider, which touches 90 mph, and he has a viable changeup and curveball as well, along with a workhorse build. He misses spots too often with that four-seamer, and it might be because his arm is a tick late relative to his front leg. His stuff is too good for these results.
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William Contreras, C (75)
Contreras made the roster when both of Atlanta’s regular catchers, Tyler Flowers and Travis d’Arnaud, fell ill with symptoms similar to those of COVID-19. It seems that former top-100 prospect Alex Jackson will get more of the playing time, as he’s older and has played in Triple A, but Contreras is Atlanta’s catcher of the future. He’s just 22 and posted a .306 OBP in 60 games in Double A last year, though, so I don’t expect much offense from him when he plays this summer.
Preseason report: Contreras’ older brother is Willson, the Cubs catcher (for now), but William is the toolsier player and has a lot more upside on both sides of the ball. As a hitter, he has a very easy swing with good follow-through, makes a lot of hard contact with strong exit velocities, and doesn’t strike out excessively despite always being young for his levels. Atlanta challenged Contreras to improve his defense if he wanted to get to Double A, and he did, getting better at blocking and framing over the course of the season to earn the promotion, while throwing out a third of opposing runners. He’ll play all of 2020 at age 22, and looks poised to take a big step this year at the plate, given his hard contact numbers and the fact that he’ll get to repeat Double A to start the season. His ceiling remains extremely high, a true catcher who provides value with his glove while hitting for average with 20-plus homers.
Chicago White Sox
Luis Robert, OF (6)
Robert was always going to make the White Sox’s Opening Day roster after the team signed him to a long-term deal over the winter, and I think he’ll be a big part of their push for a spot in the expanded playoffs. I expect plus defense and a 10-home run/10-stolen base season, but probably with a batting average below the league median as he works to adjust to pitchers attacking him inside.
Preseason report: Robert’s first season in pro ball was marred by a wrist injury he suffered in spring training that continued to affect him throughout the year, but his second season was an unqualified success. He hit .328/.376/.624 across three levels, finishing in Triple A, with 32 homers and 36 stolen bases, all while playing plus defense in center field. I’ll believe he can hit when I see it, but so far his tremendous physical gifts have shown up all over the diamond. (If you don’t follow me on social media, my misadventures in seeing Robert play live have become a running gag; I’ve gone to see him on at least four separate occasions only to have him not play due to injury, and when he has played, I’ve never seen him get a hit. He’s 0-for-13 with a walk while I’m in attendance.) Robert is huge, but cut, not just large, so he’s still agile and fast. His swing is very rotational and his hands are quick, although the way he loads creates a hole inside that I think some pitchers will exploit with velocity. His plate discipline started to slip a bit in Triple A, and that may point to a significant adjustment he’ll have to make to cover fastballs in on his hands, but the remainder of the tool package points to 30/30 upside with plus defense at a skill position.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
Dustin May, RHP (7)
The Dodgers were supposed to have a top 100 prospect on their Opening Day roster, but optioned Gavin Lux earlier in the week, then had to call upon May to replace injured starter Clayton Kershaw instead. May was absolutely filthy against the Giants on Thursday night, up to 100 mph with huge life on the pitch and big power to both his cutter and an 86 mph slurve that looked like it rolled right off the edge of an invisible table.
Preseason report: The Dodgers seem to have a pipeline of high-end pitching prospects going, with Walker Buehler now ensconced in their rotation, May ready to follow, and Josiah Gray right behind him. May can show three plus pitches with a fourth that’s at least solid-average, and despite power stuff and a delivery that has a little violence to it, he’s always been a strike-thrower, with a career walk rate of just 5.1 percent in pro ball. His two-seamer has power sink, generating ground ball rates of 50 percent or above at every stop before he reached the majors. His cutter, a pitch he only added after entering pro ball, is a legit swing-and-miss weapon, with major-league hitters whiffing on 17 percent of those pitches and putting just 11.4 percent in play. His changeup is a clear fourth pitch, and he barely threw it in the majors, using his cutter more often to lefties but still seeing a wide platoon split as left-handed batters whacked his two-seamer and curveball. He does have the weapons to get lefties out, though — and to eventually become at least a No. 2 starter, with a shot to be a true ace. He has the potential to pitch in the big-league rotation right now.
Oakland Athletics
Jesús Luzardo, LHP (26)
The A’s rotation was supposed to feature Luzardo and fellow top 100 prospect A.J. Puk, but Puk’s shoulder pushed him to the injured list, while a bout of COVID-19 delayed Luzardo’s return to pitching enough that he might work out of the bullpen to start the season. He’s got the three weapons to be an effective starter right now, and the short season and late start mitigate any concerns around his durability.
Preseason report: Luzardo was the main piece the A’s received in the 2017 trade that sent Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nationals, even though he was just a few outings back after missing a year-plus after Tommy John surgery. Since then, he’s been dominant when healthy, but often injured; he’s thrown 164 innings in the last two calendar years, including his September callup last year. He’s been up to 97 mph and can sit 92-95 as a starter, with an above-average change and curveball that became plus when he pitched in relief for the big club. Luzardo threw 51 curves and got big-league hitters to swing and miss at 13 (25.5 percent). If he can hold up as a starter, he has a higher pure ceiling than teammate A.J. Puk, with better secondaries and probably better present command. But he just hasn’t shown a track record of durability or health, even going back to high school, to instill confidence that he can take the ball 30 times.
Sean Murphy, C (36)
It looks like Murphy will be the A’s primary catcher this year — and he should be, just given his defense and raw power — although he doesn’t have much of a history of durability. If he stays healthy for the full 60 games, he’s a dark horse to challenge for the AL Rookie of the Year crown, since the advanced stats voters can see online will give him a large boost for his position and his arm.
Preseason report: Murphy could be a star if he could just stay healthy — he’s 25 now and still has yet to play 100 games in any season, but he has huge power, can catch, and has an 80 arm. He can murder a fastball, and makes consistently hard contact when he squares one up, while all manner of offspeed stuff gives him trouble. He’s a top-shelf defender behind the plate with one of the best throwing arms of any catcher in baseball, earning very high marks from the A’s for his blocking, receiving, game-calling and work with pitchers. His main issue remains staying on the field: Going back to his junior year at Wright State, he’s broken both hamate bones (fortunately, he only has two), suffered a meniscus tear in his left knee that eventually required surgery, missed time in 2017 with a sore hand and had a staph infection that cost him a month in his first pro summer. If he gets 120 games this year, he’ll likely hit 20-plus homers, draw his share of walks and provide at least a win of value with his glove. Even if he hits .240 or so, he has enough of everything else that he’ll still be a very valuable regular.
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Pittsburgh Pirates
Mitch Keller, RHP (71)
We’ll see if Keller’s second go-round in the majors is any better than his first was; we’ll probably see in his first appearance if lefties continue to tee off on him as they did in 2019.
Preseason report: Keller is just two innings short of losing his rookie eligibility, so this is probably his last time on my prospect rankings, and his outlook is cloudier than ever after multiple unsuccessful stints in the majors. Keller has velocity, a plus curveball that is a definite out pitch, and a hard slider that missed a ton of bats in the majors — but his fastball tends to flatten out, and he doesn’t have a viable third pitch yet for lefties. His changeup is a non-factor when he even throws it, and after several years he hasn’t found a grip that works, so lefties got on base at a 43 percent clip against him in the majors. He’ll sit 94-95 mph and can get it up to 98, so arm speed is not an issue, but he gets too much of the plate with the fastball; major-league hitters won’t miss it if they know they don’t have to watch for some change-of-pace pitch. His breaking stuff is good enough for him to go through right-handed hitters multiple times a game, but without more fastball movement or more deception, he’s in a sort of prospect limbo where he has a starter ceiling but, right now, a more likely outcome in a relief role.
Seattle Mariners
Evan White, 1B (86)
White signed a long-term deal with the Mariners in the offseason, so his inclusion on the Opening Day roster was a fait accompli. He’s joined by a pair of former top 100 prospects in starters Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield, both of whom will still show that kind of stuff and just haven’t had the consistency needed to be big-league starters yet. White’s defense will immediately make a difference on the field for the Mariners, and because he’s miles better than any other option on the roster, he’ll probably get plenty of time if he gets off to a slow start.
Preseason report: The Mariners’ decision to sign White to a long-term contract even though he has yet to appear in the majors was something of a surprise, as he’s not the kind of potential superstar, core player with whom teams usually do that sort of thing. But it reflects Seattle’s belief in his remaining upside and the high probability that White becomes a useful regular in the short term. He’s an outstanding defensive first baseman across the board, at least a 70 there, which helps raise his floor, but the value of that contract (6 years, $24 million) will come down to White’s power. White hit 18 homers last year for Double-A Arkansas, which plays in a pitcher-friendly park; the next-highest total was 12, and White’s 18 was the second-best home run total for any Arkansas player in the last five seasons. The Mariners worked with him to elevate the ball more, in contrast with his collegiate swing, which often chopped the ball right into the ground. It’s not a big-fly-power kind of swing, but should help him hit line drives with the right launch angle to put 20-plus into the seats. He’s aggressive early in counts and could probably get to more power, at the cost of some contact, by becoming more patient and waiting for a pitch he can drive. His defense and pure hit tool, which is a 50/55 right now, makes him a near-certain regular, while that newfound power potential gives him a chance to be a half to full grade more.
Texas Rangers
Leody Taveras, CF (37)
Taveras’ promotion to the majors was a surprise, since he finished 2019 in Double A, posting a .320 OBP in 65 games there. He’s the best defensive center fielder in the system, though, and he’s been young for everywhere he’s played so far in pro ball: He’ll turn 22 the day after Labor Day this year. I think he’ll make some contact, maybe enough to gain some hits with his speed, but his biggest value will be with his glove.
Preseason report: Taveras was all potential but very little production before 2019, although he didn’t even turn 20 until the end of the 2018 season and had already spent a full year in High A. Last year, repeating that level, he started to convert all that contact he makes into performance, hitting .294/.368/.376 and earning a midyear promotion to Double A, where he hit .265/.320/.375 without any decrease in contact rate. Taveras is a plus defender in center field, potentially a 70, and a plus runner who stole 31 bases last year but needs to be more efficient at base stealing. He’s been young for every level where he’s played, spending a full year in Low A at age 18 in 2017, so the lack of power and mediocre BABIPs before last year were not surprising, but now he’s reached an age where he should be adding strength to drive the ball more. The progress in 2019, aided by some small adjustments the Rangers’ player development staff has helped Taveras make, restores much of the optimism that he’ll get to his ceiling as a top-of-the-order center fielder who hits for average and gets on base, without power, but with elite defense and value on the basepaths.
Washington Nationals
Carter Kieboom, 3B (74)
Kieboom gets the tall task of replacing Anthony Rendon at third base, large shoes to fill on both sides of the ball. His major-league debut didn’t go well, but this year the Nats are depending more on him to produce as he did in the minors, as none of their alternatives are everyday-player quality.
Preseason report: Kieboom’s value is almost entirely tied up in his hit tool, which I’ve had multiple scouts and execs tell me could be a 60 at its peak, likely making him an above-average regular at second or third. That’s far and away the most important variable for Kieboom, who isn’t a shortstop and whose other tools are short; he’s a 40 runner at best and projects to average power, with the possibility of above-average defense at second or third with time and work. He’s hit well — both for average and contact — everywhere he’s played except for the majors last year, when he looked overmatched in an 11-game stint. He has the bat speed to hit good fastballs, and seems to pick up spin well enough, although his bat path can put him on top of the ball too often. He looks like he has the right combination of swing and approach to get to that 60 hit tool, although I think a 55 is a safer bet; that, with average power and above-average defense at either likely position, would make him a solid regular for a long time.
(Photo of White: Abbie Parr / Getty Images)
