The Phillies just got quite a bit better — and added a decent relief prospect — for a reasonable cost, sending one promising young big leaguer (Spencer Howard) to Texas plus a pair of low-probability prospects (Kevin Gowdy, Josh Gessner) for immediate help to their rotation and bullpen (Kyle Gibson, Ian Kennedy).
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Right-hander (and avid gardener) Gibson, in his second year with the Rangers, is in the midst of a breakout season at age 33, although a lot of that might prove illusory – his BABIP is by far the lowest of his career at .267 and he’s been unusually good at keeping fly balls in the park. By advanced metrics, he’s more like a league-average starter — especially since he doesn’t have any sort of knockout pitch — but that’s good enough to help the Phillies, who have one ace in Zack Wheeler, a former ace in the suddenly homer-prone Aaron Nola, and no other healthy starting pitching options above replacement level. Ten starts of Gibson would be a huge improvement over 10 starts of Vincent Velazquez or Howard (who went to Texas in this trade) or anyone else the Phillies were going to run out there – probably to the tune of one fewer run allowed per start, which would very conveniently amount to an extra win.
The Phillies also acquired closer Kennedy, who was previously known as starter Kennedy and has had a tremendous year throwing 82 percent fastballs, in part because he throws so many strikes. The Phillies’ bullpen has been a weakness, as expected, with a 4.57 ERA and a 10 percent walk rate, and Kennedy could just take the spot of Brandon Kintzler and provide an immediate upgrade over the last two months — and give the Phillies another viable right-handed option for high-leverage spots if they get to the postseason.
Right-hander Hans Crouse was in Double A for the Rangers and went to the Phillies in this trade, surprising since he’s a better prospect than either of the two minor-league pitchers Texas got back. Crouse didn’t pitch anywhere in 2020 while recovering from elbow surgery of the non-TJ variety, but bounced back well this year with a fastball/slider combination that’s pretty close to what it was in 2019, while he now has more of a changeup and has closed the platoon split that bedeviled him in the past. It’s a starter arsenal and control, but a high-effort delivery and very high-intensity approach that would at least be more typical of relievers. I’d start him until he runs into trouble, though.
The Rangers did not do well here for what they gave up. Right-hander Howard is the one player coming back with some real value, although the Phillies have had a lot of trouble figuring out how best to deploy him and his stuff; he’s been up to 97 mph many times, but the fastball is very true, and he goes to that pitch way too often in counts where he should be throwing something else for a swing-and-miss. He can show both a plus changeup and a plus curveball, although rarely on the same day, and has a below-average slider. He’s also had on-and-off shoulder issues for the past two years, although it doesn’t seem to have affected his velocity. I think he can be a mid-rotation starter in a different system and with a different plan for using his weapons.
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When the Phillies took Mickey Moniak first overall in 2016, they used the bulk of the savings from signing him to sign right-hander Kevin Gowdy, whom they selected with the first pick of the second round, only to have Gowdy undergo Tommy John surgery after nine pro innings. He was awful in his return in 2019, but this year, his results have at least been better. He’s now throwing 93-97 but without life or other movement, and he’ll show an above-average slider but can’t land it in the zone. He’s got arm strength, but right now it’s an emergency/up-and-down type. Australian right-hander Josh Gessner is an organizational arm. If you’d asked me if I would have traded Crouse for Howard straight up, I would have had to think about it. This deal seems to put much higher values on all three players coming back to Texas than I can justify.
(Photo of Ian Kennedy: Ron Jenkins / Getty Images)
