(This story was initially published on May 13, 2021 and updated with new rankings on July 10.)
This year’s draft class is … hold on, it just changed again. It’s not great at the top, maybe not even through the first round, but I still see plenty of depth here, even in the much-maligned college hitter crop – there are still plenty of players to get us through the first few rounds, and as a longtime friend of mine who’s been a scout, a director, and a VP likes to say, “You can’t pass.” (Well, you can, technically, but he’s right that it’s a career-limiting move to do so.) It’s a good year for real scouting, and raise a glass to the teams that chose to keep their scouts, because they’ll be better equipped to assess this class in the absence of so much of the summer and year-prior data that can help drive draft decisions in a normal year.
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This list includes draft-eligible players from four- and two-year colleges as well as high schools, and the players are ranked without regard to where I think they’ll be selected or to their signability (expected bonus demands). Some guys on here won’t sign, or won’t be drafted anywhere near where I have them ranked, and it will have nothing to do with their talent. And, again, this is not a mock draft. I’m ranking the players as if I were picking them myself, although The Athletic has yet to give me any sort of budget to sign players. They won’t come off the board this way in July.
1. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA)
Previously No. 3
Mayer is a left-handed hitting shortstop who doesn’t have the pure upside of Jordan Lawlar, but may be a more advanced hitter for his age. He has a great swing with good balance and the potential for plus power, and he’s a potential 60 defender at short as well. He’s stronger than you’d think on first glance, especially in his wrists and forearms, and could unlock some more power if he adapts his swing to add some sort of stride or weight transfer and stops rolling his front foot. He has great hands at shortstop and there seems to be little doubt he’ll stay at the position. The bat is a carrying tool here, and given his defensive value he has clear superstar upside, although I think it’s his floor as a plus defender who hits for some average that makes him especially appealing.
2. Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Previously No. 1
Davis hit .389/.511/.671 for the Cardinals, walking more than he struck out, with power, patience, bat control, and a plus arm. He also offers some certainty in a draft class with very little of it. For more on Davis, check out my in-person scouting report from April. I think of Davis and Mayer as 1 and 1A; Mayer is closer to a consensus top guy, but I don’t think you can go wrong with either player, as both play premium positions, project to stay there, and should hit for average with power upside. In Davis’ case, it’s the uncertainty some scouts have about his future behind the plate that makes me rank him second, although I think he’ll outwork everyone to become an above-average defender.
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3. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit College Preparatory School of Dallas
Previously No. 2
Lawlar has the best package of tools in the draft class, with the potential for all five depending on his hit tool, which is the main question scouts still offer about him as a prospect. He’s very quick-twitch with bat speed and power, but he’ll be 19 at the draft and hasn’t faced great competition this spring to raise confidence in how he’ll hit pro pitching.
4. Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Previously No. 5
My No. 1 prospect in my last two rankings, Leiter had two bad starts in a row, then missed a start as a very late scratch that the coaching staff said was to “monitor his innings.” He has great deception and a fastball that misses bats in the zone, with a delivery he repeats to eventually get to 55 or better command. After the week off, Leiter looked like his old self, with his prior velocity intact. He has No. 2 starter upside, though perhaps not more than that because he doesn’t have a knockout pitch and may not be a 200-inning guy —but he offers the best mix of stuff and command of any college pitcher in the class.
5. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
Previously No. 4
Rocker’s up-and-down spring might knock him down a few pegs on draft boards, but he can still show a plus fastball/plus breaking ball combination and has the size to be a durable, 200-inning starter, needing primarily to improve his command and show more consistency when working with men on base. As I pointed out in my latest mock draft, Rocker has some similarities to other top-of-the-line college starters who didn’t perform up to their stuff as amateurs. He has the ceiling of an ace, but a long way to get there. That’s not an argument to pass over him in the draft, however.
6. Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
Previously No. 7
McLain got off to a slow start this year but has hit more consistently and with more power as the season has gone on, making him one of the higher-floor bats in the class, and scouts now see more reason to believe he can stay at shortstop in the majors. He’s out indefinitely with a broken thumb suffered last week, however.
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7. Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest (NC) HS
Previously No. 8
Watson’s season only started during the last week of April, but he showed enough last year to end up in the top-10 picks, with above-average tools across the board, strength for hard contact, and enough speed and athleticism to stay at shortstop with some work.
8. Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Kennesaw, GA)
Previously No. 9
Ford is a high school catcher — a very risky demographic in the draft — but scouts talk about his athleticism more than anything else, which is unusual for any catching prospect, especially his plus speed. He’s also very strong, and coupled with his huge bat speed and good balance even through a big stride in the box, he looks like he’ll get to power as well. He just might not be a catcher; he could even end up in an outfield corner. So there might be a longer path for him to get from high school to the majors.
9. Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
Previously No. 10
Bachman has been up to 102 mph as a starter with a plus slider in the low 90s, with some effort but not so much that he couldn’t stick in the rotation. He missed two starts earlier this spring, but the RedHawks’ coaching staff eased him back in after his return and he showed the same electric stuff he had before he was shut down. If a team clears his medicals, he has the best one-two punch in the draft and should be a top ten pick … but he might not even go in the first round after those missed starts and teams’ well-justified skittishness over anything related to shoulders.
10. Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
Previously No. 6
Frelick looks like a future MLB leadoff hitter, with a strong eye, high contact rates, and above-average speed. He’s shown he can generate enough power from his 5-foot-10 frame to make hard contact, albeit probably without much power. He moved to centerfield this year and has shown enough to be a plus defender there.
11. Brady House, 3B/SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, GA)
House has the best exit velocities in the draft class with huge power, and he’s on the younger end of the spectrum for this draft, turning 18 in early June. He’s played shortstop but is going to move to third base in pro ball, while the main question scouts have is where his hit tool is, as he struggled some last summer and fall against better competition but showed well this spring when facing Dylan Lesko, one of the top high school pitching prospects for 2022.
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12. Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest
Cusick has one of the best fastballs in the draft, into the upper 90s with enough life that nobody can hit it, so while his breaking ball is inconsistent and his changeup — more like a low-90s two-seamer — is a work-in-progress, he offers top-10 upside with more downside risk.
13. Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
Wicks is the “safe” college lefty, with a plus-plus changeup and excellent feel to pitch, working to both sides of the plate with the fastball, although he’s been hit a little bit more than you’d like this spring and the breaking ball is a clear third pitch for him.
14. Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
Cowser continues to hit for average, improving as the season has progressed, with strong contact rates, although he went four weeks without homering before hitting one on Sunday against Arkansas-Little Rock and projects to hit more for average than for power in pro ball.
15. Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (Irmo, SC)
Taylor is committed to Clemson for football and baseball, a star high school quarterback who’d move to a wide or slot receiver role if he got to campus … but he’s probably never going to get there, as he’s flying up MLB Draft boards because of his athleticism, plus speed, and feel to hit. He’s a true centerfielder who’s put on some muscle since the fall and might end up with average power.
16. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma City)
Jobe checks every box for a high school pitcher except possibly in his delivery; he’s an outstanding athlete (and a prospect as a shortstop, too) with a four-pitch mix who has feel for the changeup and who can alter the shape on his slider at will, with good spin rates on the slider and his mid-90s fastball. There’s some effort in the delivery and some scouts don’t love how he finishes, but you can’t risk changing anything given the stuff. His biggest risk factor is just who he is – a high school pitcher.
17. Braden Montgomery, OF, Madison Central (MS) HS
Speaking of history that isn’t great, Mississippi high school position players are historically among the worst classes of players, especially given how much baseball they play there — but Montgomery, a Stanford commit, looks more advanced than most of his peers, and has three plus tools already with his power, speed, and glove in center. He’s a switch-hitter with a quiet approach from both sides of the plate and good hand acceleration.
18. Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS (Bogart, GA)
Chandler is a two-way prospect and also a quarterback who’s committed to Clemson, but his brightest future is on the mound, where he’s got a fast arm, above-average velocity, and feel to spin a curveball, although the history of quarterbacks-turned-pitchers isn’t great.
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19. Joshua Baez, OF, Dexter Southfield HS (Brookline, MA)
Baez is a huge upside play, as he’s very strong with a powerful swing and will be barely 18 at the draft, but he hasn’t faced any good pitching this spring and there’s concern about the amount of swing-and-miss he’s shown going back to the summer. It’s elite power for a high school kid, and he has the plus arm to profile as a solid right fielder.
20. Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace Preparatory School (Pennsauken, NJ)
Previously No. 21
Solometo is the best high school lefty in the class, with a loose, electric arm, a fastball up to 95 with good life, and a hard curveball that he can use to hitters on both sides of the plate. His arm swing is a little long but he repeats it very well for strikes and future command.
21. Tyler Black, 2B, Wright State
Previously No. 47
The Canadian-born Black has emerged as one of the best college position players in the draft class and could push himself into the late first round, as he’s hitting .387/.500/.650 this year, still showing great plate discipline but now with more power. He’s played all over the infield but second base is his most likely landing spot.
22. Izaac Pacheco, 3B, Friendswood (TX) HS
Pacheco is a power-hitting third baseman with a strong left-handed swing and solid defense already at third, although the way he opens up his front side through contact might give him trouble against better pitching, especially when he sees more left-handers.
23. Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
Madden has two above-average pitches now and fills the zone with fastballs, although his high arm slot makes it hard for him to throw a solid changeup or to get to above-average command down the line.
24. Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian (Fort Lauderdale, FL)
Painter is the classic high school right-hander with some now velocity but projection you can dream on, and he’s bounced back from a rough first few outings to show better control and more of a breaking ball.
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25. Connor Norby, 2B, East Carolina
Previously No. 49
Norby has performed his way into Day 1 status, hitting .415/.475/.688 this spring for the Pirates with newfound pop, although he’s limited to second base by a fringy arm. He really helped himself with a solid showing against Vanderbilt in the super regionals, hitting the best pitching he’d faced all year, with good at bats and a couple of knocks against Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. He has a compact swing and uses the whole field well, with wrist strength to drive the ball the other way. Norby is a second baseman and projects to stay there, and his bat should make him at least a regular at that spot, even if he doesn’t come into much power.
26. Dylan Smith, RHP, Alabama
Previously No. 25
Smith is an unusual prospect as a college pitcher who’s still more projection than present stuff, with a good delivery and the athleticism scouts love to see in development candidates. He has above-average control but below-average command and a change-up that he needs to use more to develop it.
27. Jaden Hill, RHP, LSU
Hill went into the year as one of the top three college arms in the class but went down early in the year with Tommy John surgery. Prior to that he’d shown three above-average to plus pitches, touching 98, with plus control, and he seemed to have the size for durability, but had a history of minor injuries.
28. Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land (PA) HS
Montgomery looks every bit the part of a first-rounder and can show plus power and above-average speed, but he has a big hitch in his swing that already leads to some swing and miss, so he’s a player development project with huge two-way upside if he can simplify his approach. He has the other tools you want in a first rounder, and in a prior era he probably would have been a top ten prospect on most teams’ boards.
29. Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP/SS, Nebraska
Schwellenbach is the shortstop-closer for the Huskers and is a prospect both ways, perhaps for some team looking to create another two-way player, but his real upside is as a future starter. He’s athletic, has a starter’s delivery, and in relief has been up to 97 with a plus slider and change-up.
30. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
Ole Miss announced in May that Hoglund would undergo Tommy John surgery, just a few days after he was pulled from his Friday start only 18 pitches into the outing. Hoglund had been extremely consistent most of the spring and looked like he’d be the next college starter taken after the Vandy boys, offering less upside but high probability that he’d at least develop into a fourth starter.
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31. Ethan Wilson, OF, South Alabama
Wilson’s had a strange year, losing much of his power (he had just 7 homers) but becoming nearly impossible to strike out, with a K rate under 10 percent. I said last time around that he’d need to show more power to profile as a corner guy, but if he can keep his strikeout rate that low and just make some harder contact of any sort he’d be a favorite of model-based teams.
32. Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
Previously No. 37
Bednar started the year in the Bulldogs’ bullpen but is now their best starter, with a slider that ranks among the best in this year’s draft. His performance on short rest in the deciding game of the College World Series didn’t really move the needle on his draft stock, but it didn’t hurt, either. There are still starter/reliever questions here, and he does rely heavily on the slider for his swings and misses, although that fits in better with the majors today than it would have five years ago.
33. Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland (NJ) HS
Previously No. 32
Petty is your guy if you want pure arm strength, up to 101 mph with a very hard slider, but with a high-effort delivery that makes him much more likely to end up a reliever in the long term. I saw him up to 99 with power to the breaking ball, but there’s effort and head violence that make it hard for him to repeat the delivery or even see the plate. I wonder if he’d be able to ease up, throw 95, and show more command and control that would make him a more likely starter.
34. Joe Mack, C, Williamsville (NY) East HS
Previously No. 33
Mack’s first game was May 14, and his last was June 17, so this is still mostly based on what scouts saw from him in 2020, where he showed a short swing geared for contact and a plus arm, with a body that looks well-suited to the rigors of the position.
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35. Michael Morales, RHP, East Pennsboro HS, Enola, PA
Previously No. 34
Morales might be a tough sign away from his commitment to Vanderbilt, but scouts love his coordination and body control as well as his physical projection; right now he’ll show average stuff but you can put future 55 or 60 grades on all three pitches if you buy into his development. His velocity tapered off as the spring progressed, however, so he might be a second-round pick or later – or end up at school.
36. Jay Allen, OF, John Carroll Catholic HS, Fort Pierce, FL
Previously No. 35
Allen is a three-sport star for Carroll Catholic, committed to Florida for baseball, and his athleticism is very clear on the diamond. He has a sweet right-handed swing that should lead to future power and shows the arm for all three outfield spots.
37. Chase Burns, RHP, Beech HS, Gallatin, TN
Previously No. 36
Burns is a Tennessee commit who’s attracted some comp/second round hype thanks to arm strength that has him touching 97 and a potentially plus slider, although his arm action is one-piece and he doesn’t have great control.
38. Ryan Bliss, SS, Auburn
Bliss has raked this year for the Tigers, hitting .366/.431/.623 with just 24 strikeouts in 195 PA, and is a plus runner who has the range for shortstop with an average arm. The debate is really about how much of his power will translate over to wood bats; a team that believes it will would probably take him in the top 40 picks.
39. Matt Mikulski, LHP, Fordham
Mikulski has been up to 98 this year and shows four pitches, headlined by a change-up with good arm speed. He’s shortened up his arm action and seen big gains in stuff, but his delivery has a lot of effort to it and might push him to the pen. He’s a senior and thus will be valued as a potential under-slot pick by many teams from the 20s onward.
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40. Adrian del Castillo, C, Miami (FL)
Previously No. 20
Del Castillo came into the year as a potential top-10 pick because of the widespread impression that he had one of the best pure bats in the college class, but he hasn’t performed at all — he’s at .301/.405/.449 on the season, with a high contact rate but none of production he showed as a freshman in 2019. He’s adequate at best behind the plate with a below-average arm, so either he has to move to first base, where he really has to hit, or someone has to bet that they can improve his receiving enough to make him a definite catcher.
41. Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida
Previously No. 26
Mace had a chance to be the first college senior taken this July, a high-floor, back-end starter with plus control and an above-average curveball he will probably use more once he gets into pro ball. His chance to really cash in has faded with just a so-so performance this year, culminating in a poor showing with a lot of scouts in attendance in Florida’s shocking regional loss.
42. Mike McGreevy, RHP, UC-Santa Barbara
Previously No. 40
McGreevy is a command right-hander who’s been up to 94 but pitched more at 90-91 recently, with good feel to spin his breaking ball and just 8 walks this year in 76 innings.
43. Caedmon Parker, RHP, The Woodlands (TX) Christian Academy
Previously No. 41
Parker has easy velocity with good feel for his offspeed pitches already, surprising for a football player who’s a recent convert to the mound from shortstop. His arm is very quick, he’s athletic, and there’s a ton of projection left to his 6-5 frame. I’m not really sure what I’m missing here – this is the quintessential high school projection righty.
44. Josh Hartle, LHP, Reagan HS, King, NC
Previously No. 42
Update: Hartle withdrew from the draft Saturday. He is no longer eligible to be selected.
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Hartle had some first-round buzz coming into the spring, but a preseason appendectomy has cost him some prep time and some velocity, as he’s been more 86-90 this spring. But he still has the plus curveball and plus changeup he showed last year, and he throws plenty of strikes.
45. Noah Miller, SS, Ozaukee (WI) HS
Previously No. 43
Miller, the younger brother of Pirates prospect Owen, is a switch-hitter with a very good left-handed swing, excellent instincts and at least an even chance to stay at shortstop, even though he doesn’t have a plus tool right now.
46. Max Muncy, SS, Thousand Oaks (CA) HS
Previously unranked
Yes, that’s his name, and no, they’re not related, although my long-ago comment that I wasn’t sure if there was more Muncy to come has been proven prescient – we had not yet reached max Muncy, but I think now we have. This Max Muncy has a good swing and plus bat speed, and he’s a plus runner with the hands to stick at shortstop; he needs to get stronger to improve not just his contact but his bat control. This is a classic projection high school position player – he’s athletic, with defensive potential, and a team that takes him is bettering mostly on him getting stronger.
47. Ben Kudrna, RHP, Blue Valley Southwest HS, Overland Park, KS
Previously No. 44
Kudrna is a projection right-hander with a good delivery and enough present stuff, including the makings of a good slider and potentially plus change-up, along with feel to pitch that he looks like he’ll be someone’s second pick, in the comp or early second rounds, as teams start to target high school pitching after the end of the first.
48. Robert Gasser, LHP, Houston
Previously No. 45
Gasser’s path to the draft has been a tortuous one — he was at New Mexico as a freshman in 2018, transferred to a junior college in 2019, had an 11.05 ERA in 2020 for Houston, and is now their Friday night starter and a top-two-rounds pick. Gasser is up to 95 but pitches at average, throwing strikes with a three-pitch mix. If he had the track record of Jordan Wicks, he might be a first-rounder.
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49. Maddux Bruns, LHP, UMS-Wright Preparatory School, Saraland, AL
Previously No. 46
Bruns struggled last summer, unable to find the plate after the first event of the season (PG National), but he’s been much better this spring after working to add strength, with a fastball up to 98 mph and a power breaking ball with good spin along with much lower walk rates.
50. Lonnie White, OF, Malvern (PA) Prep
Previously No. 48
White is committed to Penn State to play wide receiver for the Nittany Lions, although he’s built more like a linebacker or strong safety and doesn’t have the explosive speed you’d expect for a receiver at any spot. He’s a 50/55 runner after gaining some weight this past offseason (maybe bulking up for football) with bat speed and some loft to his finish for future power, although he looks more like a right fielder than he did a year ago.
51. Joe Rock, RHP, Ohio
Previously No. 50
Rock missed last spring for academic reasons but has been an ace for the Bobcats this spring, working at 93-94 with an above-average change-up, with his slider starting to develop but still not quite average; that last pitch might be better if his arm wasn’t as late relative to his front leg landing as it is now.
52. Tyler Whitaker, OF, Bishop Gorman, Las Vegas, NV
Previously No. 51
Whitaker has attracted national scouts and directors the last few weeks for his huge power potential and plus arm that give visions of a 30-homer bat in an outfield corner, but there’s some leak in his approach and too much swing and miss. He reminds me a bit of Nolan Gorman at the same age, but right-handed.
53. Denzel Clarke, OF, Cal State-Northridge
Previously No. 52
A cousin of the Naylor brothers, Clarke is an athletic 6-5 outfielder with plus speed and above-average power, performing well for Northridge this year, with some concerns about his approach when he gets to face better pitching.
54. Frank Mozzicato, LHP, East Catholic HS, Ellington, CT
Previously No. 53
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Mozzicato has been up to 94 this spring with a plus curveball, throwing four straight no-hitters and attracting a lot of attention as the spring wore down. He has good arm acceleration and repeats it well, although he cuts off his landing and comes back a little across his body to get to his glove side. The curveball is an out pitch, though, and he offers a ton of projection.
55. Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina
Previously No. 54
Williams is a power pitcher, sitting mid-90s with a three-pitch mix and aggressive style, with a very short arm action and short stride that’s online to the plate. He improved as the season went on, and a team that isn’t worried about his intermittent health history might take him in the first round; if he can hold up in the role he’s a potential No. 2 starter.
56. Colson Montgomery, SS, Southridge (IN) HS
Previously No. 84
Montgomery is a big kid, 6-4 and 200-odd pounds already, likely to move to third base but with a plus arm that should let him profile there. I like his left-handed swing and he’s supposed to have a good approach, but scouts have questioned how he’ll hit against better pitching, and he already turned 19 in February.
57. Matheu Nelson, C, Florida State
Previously No. 55
Nelson leads all Division 1 hitters with 20 homers, and has improved his game at the right time, hitting better within the ACC than outside of it. He’s a fringy defender but has enough of a chance to stay at catcher that his power — and his status as a senior — should get him into the top 50-60 picks.
58. Ryan Webb, LHP, Georgia
Previously No. 56
A true senior, Webb has continued to show plus velocity from the left side and has kept his walks down, although his inconsistent command has led to 10 homers allowed in 60 innings.
59. Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
Previously No. 57
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Fabian is one of the leaders in the “tooled-up SEC outfielders who swing and miss too much” category, leading the pack in tools, but with no history of making adjustments even though he has two pretty significant holes in his approach. He’s cut his strikeout rate to a manageable level over the last few weeks in the SEC, enoughto put himself into second-round range for someone who wants to bet on his upside, but there is just no indication he’s going to be able to hit.
60. Christian McGowan, RHP, Eastern Oklahoma State
Previously No. 58
McGowan is committed to Texas Tech, but might never see Lubbock as he’s been 93-97, and both the slider and changeup show promise. He’s also tightened up his delivery, getting more online to the plate, so that there’s a good chance he can stay a starter.
61. Alex Mooney, SS, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s Prep, Rochester Hills, MI
Previously No. 59
Mooney is a Duke commit and the best high school prospect in Michigan in several years, probably since first-rounder Nick Plummer, who also played in a conference where batters start with a 1-1 count. He has a quick right-handed swing with pull power to come as he fills out, while he’s going to have to move to third or second in pro ball.
62. Tommy Dilandri, OF, Palo Verde HS, Las Vegas
Previously No. 60
Dilandri can show plus speed and power and his wrists are quick, but his swing path can be inconsistent and thus so is his ability to make contact, giving him above-average upside but perhaps a longer development path.
63. Isaiah Thomas, OF, Vanderbilt
Previously No. 61
Thomas is in the same bucket as Jud Fabian, with far too many strikeouts but some big tools. Thomas is athletic and has real power, with hard contact when he squares it up, but he’s been dealing with a hand injury and has struck out 16 times with just 2 walks in SEC play.
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64. Alex Binelas, 1B/OF, Louisville
Previously No. 62
Binelas couldn’t buy a hit early in the season but he’s been better in conference play, with 70 raw power, though still a low walk rate and not enough average (.287) given his contact rate.
65. Justice Thompson, OF, North Carolina
Previously No. 63
Thompson is a plus runner who should end up a plus defender in center, but so far this year he’s been feasting mostly on fastballs and struggling with breaking balls in his first year in the ACC after he transferred from junior college.
66. Michael Robertson, OF, Venice (FL) HS
Previously No. 64
If Robertson were a more physical guy now, he might go in the top-40 picks. He has 70 speed in games and plays plus defense in center, with a contact-oriented approach and direct swing that just lacks power.
67. Luca Tresh, C, North Carolina State
Previously No. 65
Tresh is a solid receiver with enough arm strength to stay behind the plate, though needing some work on his throwing mechanics. At the plate he has the strength for power, but a very wide stance gives him no stride and has held him to a .267 average this year with twice as many strikeouts as walks.
68. Peter Heubeck, RHP, Gilman (MD) HS
Previously No. 66
Heubeck was one of the more polarizing players in the loaded Mid-Atlantic region this year; some scouts questioned whether he’d ever get to the projection, while others saw huge upside with a kid who could already flash a 55 fastball and curveball and show solid command of both. He’s slight now, with some clear room to fill out, and can sit 90-93 with more of an average curveball, a pitch with depth but not great spin yet. He’s definitely a long-term prospect, not a fast mover, but could benefit from going to Wake Forest instead, and might be a first-rounder in three years.
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69. Malakhi Knight, OF, Marysville-Getchell (WA) HS
Previously No.67
Knight is a projectable right-handed hitter with an athletic frame and a simple swing, but struggled early in the spring when he traveled to Arizona with a barnstorming team, leading to some nitpicking of his approach. He’s still a great athlete with first-round upside, but perhaps a better fit for a team willing to spend more time on his development.
70. Peyton Wilson, 2B, Alabama
Previously No. 68
Wilson’s older brother Ross also played for the Tide and spent parts of five seasons in the minors, reaching Double A for 13 games. Peyton is a better pure hitter, with good bat speed and some pull power, although he’s overly aggressive and is a fringy defender at second.
71. Andrew Walling, LHP, Eastern Oklahoma State
Previously No. 69
Walling has been 93-96 for the Mountaineers, showing improved arm speed and a cleaner delivery than he had before, along with an average slider but a changeup that’s still a work in progress.
72. Edwin Arroyo, SS, Central Pointe Christian, Kissimmee, FL
Previously No. 70
Arroyo moved from Puerto Rico to Florida for his senior year and has improved enough over the course of the spring to potentially end up in the second round. He’s a switch-hitter with sound, compact swings from both sides of the plate, and is a clear shortstop with above-average speed, with power the one tool that seems to be lacking.
73. Peyton Stovall, 2B, Haughton (LA) HS
Previously No.71
Stovall could go as high as the back of the first round to one of the teams that loves his left-handed swing and sees a 60 hit tool, but I see him as more of a second-round talent because he doesn’t have a clear position — he’s rough at second base — and doesn’t have a plus second tool to go with the bat.
74. Jonathan Cannon, RHP, Georgia
Previously No. 72
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Cannon is a draft-eligible sophomore who missed the first few weeks of the spring with mono but came back strong, at least stuff-wise, up to 96 with a slider and changeup as well. But he’s had trouble missing bats — 40 K in 45 1/3 innings, and that’s boosted by a 9-strikeout outing at Vanderbilt a month ago — despite the quality of his arsenal.
75. Thatcher Hurd, RHP, Mira Costa (CA) HS
Previously No. 73
Hurd is an extremely projectable high school right-hander, 6-4 and made of promises and dreams, with good feel to pitch and a solid repertoire of four pitches, but nothing plus yet. He’s the classic second-pick over slot guy, where a team pays him in the hopes he’ll look like a first-rounder in three years. He does have a very strong commitment to UCLA.
76. Zack Gelof, 3B, Virginia
Previously No. 74
Gelof has power that we haven’t seen since he got to college, thanks to the UVA contact-oriented approach, where he hits all the time like there are two strikes; if he’s unleashed in pro ball, he should see improvements to his homer total and his average. He also seems to be over the throwing issues that plagued him earlier in the spring and should be an adequate defender at third or second.
77. Christian Franklin, OF, Arkansas
Previously No. 75
Franklin has huge power and could be a 60 defender in center, but his swing is wildly inconsistent and he doesn’t use his legs well at the plate, part of why he’s always had trouble making contact.
78. Davis Diaz, SS/C, Acalanes HS, Lafayette, CA
Previously No. 76
The 5-11 Diaz is indeed a shortstop and sometimes a catcher, with a simple, clean right-handed swing for all-fields contact, a second-rounder for a team that believes in his ability to convert to behind the plate.
79. Eric Silva, RHP, JSerra Catholic HS, San Juan Capistrano, CA
Previously No. 77
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Silva has come on somewhat this spring, working more 93-95 with four pitches, coming from a six-foot frame with some delivery questions that have scouts debating whether he holds up as a starter.
80. Wes Kath, SS, Desert Mountain HS, Scottsdale, AZ
Previously No. 78
Kath is a left-handed hitter with the potential for 55/60 hit and power tools, with a lot of room to add muscle to his 6-3 frame, although he can get too rotational at the plate and will have to move to third in pro ball.
81. Brandon Neely, RHP, Spruce Creek HS, Port Orange, FL
Previously No. 79
Neely is athletic and has a loose, easy arm, up to 93-94, but his breaking ball is below average and he has to throw the fastball for strikes more often. He might be unsignable given his commitment to Florida, but would be one to watch for 2024.
82. Chase Silseth, RHP, Arizona
Previously No. 80
Silseth works with two 55s in his fastball and curveball, throwing both for strikes, but he’s had a pair of disaster starts — 22 runs allowed (18 earned) in 6 innings between the two of them — that have wrecked his season line, and his defense hasn’t done him any favors either.
83. McCade Brown, RHP, Indiana
Previously No. 81
Brown has first-round stuff, and if you get him on the right weekend — like at Rutgers last weekend, when he struck out 11 in 7 innings, allowing just 1 hit and 3 walks — you might put him there on your draft board, but he’s so erratic that he’s going to go in the second round or later. He has a starter’s build and despite some head violence it’s not a terrible delivery; he just doesn’t throw anything consistently for strikes. Outside of his two outings against the Scarlet Knights, he’s thrown 33 innings this year with 27 walks and 54 strikeouts.
84. Richard Fitts, RHP, Auburn
Previously No. 82
Fitts looked like a first-rounder out of the first weekend of the season, was removed from the rotation after two bad outings, and returned to starting this weekend even though didn’t really pitch any better in relief. He’s been up to 97 with a plus split-change, needing work on his slider, but his command evaporated for about two months and he’s probably more in the third to fourth round range for a team willing to gamble and see if they can fix him.
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85. Andrew Abbott, LHP, Virginia
Previously No. 83
Abbott should have been drafted last year, and he’ll be especially appealing now as a senior lefty starter who’s up to 95 with good feel and an above-average changeup.
86. Dominic Keegan, 1B/C, Vanderbilt
Previously No. 85
Keegan is probably a 4th-5th rounder just for his bat; he has plus power and some hit tool but doesn’t show great ball/strike recognition. He’s also caught occasionally, however, and could be a third-rounder for a team that wants to make him a full-timer back there, where his power would make him a potential everyday player.
87. Carter Jensen, C, Park Hill HS, Kansas City, Mo.
Previously No. 86
Jensen is a bat-first catcher with the chance for plus hit/plus power, which would make him a first-rounder if he were clearly going to stay behind the plate. He has arm strength but his technique and setup behind the plate both need work, and he’ll be a project for someone’s catching instructor once he signs.
88. CJ Rodriguez, C, Vanderbilt
Previously No. 87
Rodriguez is sophomore-eligible this year and has attracted some notice for his excellent bat-to-ball skills and plus arm; he has a good reputation as a receiver as well, although when I saw him catch Kumar Rocker he had a tough day behind the plate.
89. Trey Sweeney, SS, Eastern Illinois
Previously unranked
Sweeney has been a favorite of teams that base their draft boards heavily off statistical models, not least because he destroyed the Ohio Valley Conference this year. He’s not as popular with scouts, who see a tough-to-repeat swing that doesn’t work against better velocity, and a well below-average runner who is going to move off shortstop and might end up in an outfield corner. His hands are quick enough at the plate, so maybe it’s just a lack of reps against good fastballs, but he has to hit and hit for power – which he did do against the available competition this year, at least – to profile as a regular.
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90. Grant Holman, RHP, California
Previously No. 88
Holman was expected to be a high pick this year but started the year on the shelf with bicep tendinitis, missing five starts, and since his return he’s been very up and down in both stuff and performance. He’s a four-pitch guy who’ll show plus velocity and throws strikes, but the off year and medical question probably push him into day two.
91. Mo Hanley, LHP, Adrian College
Previously No. 89
Hanley had a chance to sneak into the comp round before Tommy John surgery put a pause to his Cinderella story, as the Division 3 product had been up to 95 with a plus slider and was dominating competition for the second year in a row; between 2020 and 2021, he punched out 57 in 31 2/3 innings. He’s a senior and was already going to come in under slot even before the surgery.
92. Mason Black, RHP, Lehigh
Previously No. 90
Black had a rough stretch early in the spring, compounded in part by lousy weather, but can dominate at times with his fastball at 90-95, striking out 90 guys so far in 64 2/3 innings, albeit against a weak schedule in the Patriot League.
93. Irving Carter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale
Previously No. 91
Carter can show you a 60 slider and sits 93-95, with an unusual delivery that has made his command extremely inconsistent. He also wears his hat crooked, which you just know will knock him down on some team’s pref list.
94. Sean Hard, RHP, St. Joseph’s Regional HS, Montvale, NJ
Previously No. 92
Hard has been up to 95 with good spin rates on his fastball and two-plane curveball, and has plenty of projection left in his body and delivery once he gets into pro ball.
95. Pierce Coppola, LHP, Verona (NJ) HS
Previously No. 93
Coppola is 6-8 and left-handed, and he’s just begun to fill out, already up to 95 with an inconsistent but sometimes above-average slider. He gets compared to a young Andrew Miller a lot, but I think his arm swing is shorter and he might have a better shot to get his command from 35 or 40 now to average or better.
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96. Philip Abner, LHP, Charlotte (NC) Christian HS
Previously No. 94
Abner was 93-96 earlier this spring with a plus curveball, along with a mature body that doesn’t offer projection but could point to durability, and even has some pop as a hitter. He’s been out for a while with a bad case of turf toe, and might slip to the second/third round as a result of his season ending early, but there’s a little Ryan Weathers/David Wells look to his body and stuff.
97. Steven Hajjar, LHP, Michigan
Previously No. 95
Hajjar is 6-5 and looks like he’s going to throw 100, but he’s mostly 87-91 now, with a change and curve, nothing plus. There’s plenty of raw material for a pro staff to work with, cleaning up his delivery and getting him online to the plate with better extension, and maybe trying to coax more velocity out of his frame.
98. Cody Schrier, SS, JSerra HS, San Clemente, CA
Previously No. 97
Update: Schrier has withdrawn from the draft. He is no longer eligible to be selected.
Schrier is a power-over-hit middle infielder with great hand strength but some back-side collapse at the plate, which often leads to problems with contact. He’s adequate at shortstop now with enough arm strength for the left side of the infield, but probably moves to third base in favor of rangier options at short.
99. Jackson Merrill, SS, Severna Park (MD) HS
Previously unranked
Merrill was a beneficiary of the late-running Maryland baseball season, with reports that there were 8 directors at some of his games … because most of the country was already done playing. Merrill is a solid enough prospect, although he’s going to move off shortstop in pro ball and profiles better at second base, and doesn’t really have a carrying tool that would justify that kind of scouting attention. He’s getting second-round buzz, but the swing doesn’t always work (despite good bat speed) and he seems like a guy who’d head to the University of Kentucky and have a chance to be a first-rounder in three years.
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100. James Triantos, SS, James Madison HS, McLean, VA
Previously unranked
Triantos is Herc’s favorite prospect in this year’s draft, and is best known among scouts for the fact that he didn’t strike out all spring while hitting .745 for James Madison HS, leading the team to the Virginia state championship. He’s a two-player player who reclassified into the 2021 class and has moved into the top two rounds on the basis of that performance and, as you’d expect, elite bat control. His swing is simple and fast, so if a pitch is in the zone, he’s perfectly set up to hit it hard. He doesn’t have another plus tool, and he’s going to move off shortstop, so if he goes in the top 50 picks or so, it’s a bet on his bat over all else.
101. Carson Williams, SS
Previously unranked
Williams has a great arm, but that’s about all the consensus there is on him as a prospect. He’s hit well when facing weak pitching in the spring, but doesn’t have a great history of hitting velocity, and there are questions about whether his feet are good enough for shortstop. He does keep his hands inside the ball well with a short stroke, and if he uses the whole field he’s got a chance to hit for some average. In the field, he has a cannon, up to 96 when he works as a closer, and his hands are more than good enough for shortstop. He could go higher, but he seems like a third-rounder who might get over slot.
(Top image: Wes McCabe, The Athletic; Photos: Peter Aiken / Getty Images; AP / Ben McKeown; Cal Sport Media via AP Images; Courtesy of Elaine Payne)
