The lower levels of the Boston system held things together for the Red Sox, as several of their prospects who reached the majors or should have been close to it had somewhat disappointing years. There’s actually some pitching coming for the first time in a while, and even if they’re mostly back-end starters, that will still help fill out a rotation that right now comprises four guys acquired from outside the organization and Tanner Houck.
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To qualify for these rankings, players must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 days on an active roster heading into this season.
1. Marcelo Mayer, SS (Top 100 ranking: No. 18)
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 188 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 4 in 2021
Mayer was the best high school prospect in the 2021 draft class, and the Red Sox were ecstatic to get him with the No. 4 pick, landing a high-upside hitter at one of the most important positions on the field. Mayer repeats his swing well, with good balance throughout, and his strong wrists and forearms point to more future power than his wiry frame might imply. Some small swing changes to help him transfer his weight through contact could unlock that power in short order, even before he fills out. He has excellent hands and strong lateral range at shortstop, with no doubt he stays there and the potential to end up plus. He showed solid command of the strike zone in the Florida Complex League this summer and had the advantage of facing better competition as a high schooler in California than most hitters elsewhere in the country, so there’s cause to believe he’ll be a solid on-base guy, as well. There’s a lot to work with here on top of a very strong foundation of defensive and offensive skills, giving Mayer a solid floor as a soft regular and the upside of a No. 2 hitter who saves 5 to 10 runs a year with his glove.
2. Nick Yorke, 2B (Top 100 ranking: No. 37)
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 17 in 2020
The most maligned pick of the 2020 draft by far went out and proved all of the criticism — yes, including mine — wrong with a .325/.412/.516 line across Low A and High A, especially impressive for a 19-year-old who’d barely played since 2019. Yorke has a fantastic and simple right-handed swing that helps him use the middle of the field and gives him superlative coverage of the strike zone; he’s showed above-average power already, probably lacking the projection for much more but with 15-20 homers a reasonable expectation for his major-league power output. He’s limited to second base by a below-average arm and average speed, although he’s a better runner underway than out of the box. It’s an extremely impressive bat across the board, from the swing to the understanding of the zone to the ability to drive the ball to the gaps, and with no reason to think he won’t stay at second base, he projects as at least an above-average regular there, with batting average champion upside.
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3. Triston Casas, 1B (Top 100 ranking: No. 56)
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 252 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 26 in 2018
Casas made some small changes to his setup last year, but the bigger shift was how he worked the count, especially getting into his legs more when he was ahead in the count so he could drive the ball more consistently. He still has a strong two-strike approach to put the ball in play, with great contact rates for a corner power bat — he actually cut his strikeout rate from 2019 to 2021 despite two promotions and the interruption of a trip to the Olympics. After some experiments at third, Casas only played first last year, and that’s going to be his best position. There should be another gear of power here, and he might end up a .280/.370/.520 sort of bat at first base, with 25-30 homers a year.
4. Brayan Bello, RHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 86)
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Bello can run his fastball up to 100 mph, and pitches at 95-97 with some feel, although he still has a fair amount of development to go before he’s going to be a big-league starter. He’s a four-pitch guy who needs those offspeed weapons because hitters can get on his fastball even with its velocity, which emphasizes the need for him to further work on his changeup (although he had no real platoon split last year) or perhaps try a splitter. His slider can get up to 90 mph and should be a plus pitch in time. His arm is fast, but there’s some effort and he has a smaller frame, similar to that of the late Yordano Ventura in physique and arm speed. There’s definite reliever risk, but if he moves to the bullpen he’ll probably be 97-100 with a slider up to 90-92, and he has mid-rotation starter upside if he can improve both his fastball command and the quality of his secondaries.
5. Jeter Downs, SS/2B (Just-missed list)
Age: 23 | 5-11 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 32 in 2017
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Downs jumped two levels to Triple-A Worcester last year, and it didn’t take, as he hit .191/.272/.333 in 99 games for the Paws… Woosox, I guess. He made less contact than before and did less on contact — he’d been a doubles machine in 2019, but last year couldn’t even do that, with his hits going for doubles at half the rate of the previous year. He wasn’t making the same kind of contact, even against the more hitter-friendly major-league ball. Scouts I asked questioned whether he was just discouraged by the tough season and that perhaps it snowballed on him. It’s not a swing issue, and he showed signs of life when he went to the AFL in October, taking good at-bats and hitting several balls hard (granted, the pitching out there was awful). He played mostly shortstop, but there’s broad consensus he can’t play there in the majors, while he’s shown 55 defense at second. For a prospect whose calling card was always his hit tool, however, this kind of performance is especially concerning. If it’s just a fluke, perhaps from the aggressive promotion, then he can still be an above-average regular at second base.
6. Jarren Duran, CF (Just-missed list)
Age: 25 | 6-2 | 212 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 220 in 2018
I still think Duran’s going to be a good big leaguer, but his production in the majors in 2021 was hard to explain away. Granted, it was just 112 PA, but when your walk and strikeout rates look just like Billy Hamilton’s, you might have a problem. Duran reworked his swing during the shutdown to get to more power, as prior to that he was a low-walk slap hitter with plus speed, and it paid off in Triple A, where he hit 16 homers in 60 games — which is more homers than he had hit previously in the minors, fall league, college, and collegiate summer ball combined. A bad month or so doesn’t ruin a prospect’s outlook, and Duran still has above-average regular upside between his speed (and potential for plus defense, which we didn’t see last year) and power. The high-leverage swing may mean he swings-and-misses enough to cancel out some of that added value, especially if he continues to have problems with good velocity as he did in that cup of coffee in the majors.
7. Jay Groome, LHP
Age: 23 | 6-6 | 262 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 12 in 2016
Groome was the 12th pick in 2016, but after several years of injuries, including Tommy John surgery, he just had his first full season of pitching in 2021, making 21 starts between High A and Double A. He’s mostly 92-95 mph now, having filled out and picked up about a grade of velocity, with a much-improved changeup; while his curveball has gone from a 70 when he was an amateur to more of a 55 now – not shocking after the elbow surgery, although it’s a shame. (I said at the time it was one of the three best amateur curveballs I’d ever seen, along with Lucas Giolito’s and Dylan Bundy’s. All three had Tommy John, and only Giolito’s was close to the same afterward.) Groome added a slider, although last year he had far more trouble with left-handed batters than right, from missing fewer bats to giving up more power on contact. The fastball/changeup combination are good enough to make him a back-end starter. If he tightens the slider, which is more likely than the curveball coming back, he could be a mid-rotation guy.
8. Brandon Walter, LHP
Age: 25 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 797 in 2019
Walter is a Delaware kid – he’s from New Castle, went to Hodgson Vocational Technical High School in Glasgow, and then to the University of Delaware, where he missed his junior year due to Tommy John surgery and went in the 26th round as a senior sign in 2019, just three months before he turned 23. He worked to gain strength and velocity during the pandemic and is now up to 97 mph with a four-pitch mix that features a plus slider and at least an average changeup. There’s some effort to the delivery, and he’s control over command, but he hides the ball well and it’s a brutal look for left-handed batters. He could be a fourth starter if he can handle the workload.
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9. Matt Lugo, SS
Age: 21 | 6-1 | 187 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 69 in 2019
Boston’s second-round pick in 2019, out of a Puerto Rico high school, Lugo started to fill out and showed more doubles power in 2021, his full-season debut. He’s an athletic shortstop who should get to at least average power, and showed solid zone awareness last year in Low A, with just a 20 percent strikeout rate despite having played just two games outside the complex league before last year. His defense at shortstop has improved significantly, and the quality of his at-bats also improved over the course of 2021. He might be a level per year guy but projects to be an everyday player at shortstop when he gets there.
10. Bryan Mata, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 238 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Mata underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2021, so we probably won’t see him until after this year’s minor-league season begins. He’s a low-slot right-hander who can touch 98 mph but gives left-handed batters a long look at the ball. And it’s a tough arm action for him to repeat, so even if he comes back 100 percent, there’s still significant reliever risk here.
11. Chris Murphy, LHP
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 197 in 2019
Murphy is a four-pitch lefty who has seen both his velocity and control improve substantially since the Red Sox took him in the sixth round in 2019 out of the University of San Diego. He was 93-94 mph last year, bumping 96 mph, with an above-average curveball and hard slider that can morph into a soft cutter. He destroyed lefties last year, holding them to a .134/.236/.165 line, but he was very homer-prone in High A (as was much of the Greenville staff) and all 21 homers he allowed on the year were to right-handers. If he improves that changeup and does a better job of mixing up his pitches to righties, he could be a fourth starter; if not, he has value in relief because of how effective he is against lefties.
12. Gilberto Jimenez, OF
Age: 21 | 5-11 | 212 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
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The Red Sox made the surprising decision not to add Jimenez to their 40-man roster, but his performance hasn’t caught up with his tools even as he’s gotten bigger. He’s still a plus runner but no longer an 80, and can still play centerfield at least plus. He’s substantially stronger now than he was in 2019, yet his pitch selection hasn’t progressed enough for the strength to translate into even doubles power – his ISO actually dropped from .111 in short-season Lowell two years ago to .099 for Low-A Salem last year, and much of that “power” was actually his speed helping him take extra bases. His swing is fine and allows him to make a lot of contact, so it’s the choices he’s making rather than an inability to hit certain pitches or zones. He’s just 21 and doesn’t even have 1,000 plate appearances in the minors yet, so there’s time. He has above-average regular upside, although if someone takes him in the Rule 5 Draft and stashes him on the roster this year, it might derail his development.
13. Blaze Jordan, 3B/1B
Age: 19 | 6-2 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 89 in 2020
Jordan was their third-round pick in 2020, signed to an over-slot deal, and got off to a great start to his pro career in 2021, before an illness ended his season after 28 games. The Sox have worked with him on his swing path to get him away from the all-or-nothing approach he had in high school, which helped him cut down on his swing-and-miss while actually letting him tap into his power more in games, rather than just in batting practice. He played both third and first last year, with first base still more likely as third is a work in progress. The debut was a success, in a tiny sample, and if he holds these gains into Low A next year, he’ll be in their top five or six a year from now.
14. Thad Ward, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-3 | 192 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 160 in 2018
Ward made two starts in 2021 before undergoing Tommy John surgery at the beginning of June, taking him out until the middle of this year at the earliest. He was 92-96 mph with some sink and a potential out pitch in his slider, showing enough changeup to be a starter, with back-end ceiling.
15. Ronaldo Hernandez, C
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 230 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Acquired last February for a pair of relievers, Hernandez has power and makes hard contact, but pitchers have exploited his overaggressiveness as he’s moved up the ladder. He drew 12 walks in 387 plate appearances last year, and if it weren’t for the 11 times he got plunked, he’d have had a .306 on-base percentage on the year. That might fly if he could keep hitting for average and power in spite of the approach, but I think major-league pitchers are going to have little trouble with him unless he shows some discipline. He’s a below-average receiver but would be a big beneficiary of the automated strike zone. There are still several ways he can end up a valuable big leaguer, but the main one is taking more than a pitch a week.
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16. Alex Binelas, 1B
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 225 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 86 in 2021
Binelas was the Brewers’ third-round pick in 2021, and Milwaukee traded him to the Red Sox this offseason in a deal for Hunter Renfroe. Binelas hits the ball extremely hard, with at least 70 power, but punched out a ton for Louisville last spring, often in ugly fashion, missing in-zone and out, although his contact rate was better in Low A than it was in college, even with wood bats and better competition. The Brewers had him play some third base after he signed, but I would be floored if that worked out. He has the power to profile at first base, though, if he shows he can hit enough to get to it.
17. Wilkelman Gonzalez, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 167 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Gonzalez is a very athletic right-hander with a somewhat smaller frame, but runs it up to 97 mph, sitting 93-94 mph, with good spin on a curveball that might end up being plus and a functional changeup already. He has a lower slot and looks like he’s still learning his body, with a lack of coordination that can cause his arm action to vary. It’s a fast arm, though, and he throws strikes, with good secondary characteristics to the fastball, as well.
18. Brainer Bonaci, SS
Age: 19 | 5-10 | 164 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Bonaci is a switch-hitting shortstop with a plus arm who has already started to fill out for improved contact quality. He’s a gap-to-gap hitter, unlikely to get to more than average power with his current swing and approach, but could be a high-average hitter with a lot of doubles, spraying the field with line drives. He also projects to stay at shortstop, so even that profile would make him a solid regular. He spent most of 2021 in the Florida Complex League, playing 13 games for Low-A Salem, where I expect him to start 2022.
19. Connor Seabold, RHP
Age: 26 | 6-2 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 83 in 2017
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Seabold is a potential fifth starter thanks to a plus changeup, but everything else he has is fringe-average, and he doesn’t have the plus command that he really needs to make this work when turning a lineup over two or three times. His four-seamer is 90-93 mph, and he tries to live up in the zone with it, a formula that is very unlikely to work without exceptional spin or life. He’d be more interesting in a relief role if the velocity ticks up because the changeup will let him get lefties out.
20. Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/IF
Age: 21 | 5-8 | 152 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
The Red Sox moved the Curaçao native Rafaela to center field this year, and he took to it immediately, showing 65 or better defense out there, taking advantage of the erstwhile shortstop’s plus speed. His full name, by the way, is Ceddanne Chipper Nicasio Marte Rafaela. He’s only 5-foot-8, but strong for his size, and has excellent plate coverage even with some inconsistencies in his swing.
Others of note
Chih-Jung Liu was 98-99 mph as an amateur who’d run in from shortstop to be the Taiwanese national team’s closer in tournaments, but he’s backed off to 92-94 mph in pro ball, touching 96 mph with good feel to pitch, but so far his secondary stuff is just average. He signed in October 2019, so last year was his pro debut. … Corner outfielder Nick Decker, Boston’s second-round pick in 2018, continues to work with coaches to refine his swing so he can get more contact and get to his plus power. He walked more last year and hit for more power as the season went on, but was a little older for Low A at 21. … The Sox picked up infielder Christian Koss from the Rockies in a December 2020 trade for minor league pitcher Yoan Aybar, and Koss surprised everyone by playing above-average if not plus defense at shortstop in Low A. He has 50-55 power but collapses his back side and makes too much weak contact for someone with his strength. He doesn’t have a long way to go to be a good utility infielder. … Right-hander Durbin Feltman had a solid year between Double and Triple A, working more in the low 90s now, topping out at 95 mph instead of the upper 90s he showed in college. He walked just four guys in 24 Triple-A innings to close out the season, and since the Red Sox declined to add him to their 40-man roster, he seems likely to be a Rule 5 pick for someone. … As for right-hander Noah Song, he’s now 25, still not free to join the organization as he fulfills his commitment to the United States Navy, and hasn’t thrown a pitch since August 2019. I’m not going to rank him until he’s on an active roster and we see how hard he’s throwing after this much time away from the game.
2022 impact
Duran and Downs could play in the majors this year, although each has something significant to prove before the Sox are likely to hand them full-time jobs.
The fallen
The Red Sox gave Venezuelan infielder Danny Diaz a $1.6 million bonus to sign in 2017, but he never hit in pro ball, and after he limped to a .173/.264/.320 line repeating the complex league at age 20, they released him in September.
Sleeper
I think this is Lugo’s year to take that big step forward at the plate, with harder contact and better at-bats translating at least into doubles power.
(Photo of Marcelo Mayer: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP)
