Every year that I produce a top 100 ranking, I go through an iterative process where I start with more than 100 players, circulate the first cut to industry sources, move some guys around, take some names off the list and add other ones, circulate again, and so on. That process always means there are players who just missed the list — the decision to stop at 100 is rather arbitrary, just a function of us having 10 fingers and base-10 number system — and this year I’ve written up a few more of those players, all of who are very good prospects who shouldn’t be overlooked just because they missed the main list. I do write these comments in a way that I hope describes their abilities while also making it clear why I omitted them from the top 100.
I always say no one ever reads the intro, but here it is anyway: These players are listed in alphabetical order. This isn’t a further ranking, although someone will inevitably claim that it is. I identified one player here who was the last cut from the top 100, but that’s it.
Matt Brash, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 113 in 2019
Brash was the big breakout prospect in the Mariners’ system this year after coming to the Seattle system in an August 2020 trade that sent Taylor Williams to the Padres. Brash had just 5 1/3 pro innings before the deal, but blew up this year, punching out 142 guys in 97 innings between High A and Double A. He has electric stuff, mid-90s with spin and a wipeout slider, missing left- and right-handed bats at both levels. The delivery, though, is ugly. Brash has a head-whack, comes back across his body, and lands on a stiff front leg that forces him into a roundhouse-kick move at release, so it’s unsurprising that he’s had some injury issues in the past and has below-average control, walking 48 men last year. He’s more likely to be an impact reliever, but his ability to miss bats gives him a chance to succeed as a starter.
Advertisement
Dillon Dingler, C, Detroit Tigers
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 38 in 2020
The Tigers took Dingler with the first pick in the second round of 2020, and it appeared they’d landed a first-round talent who’d slipped a little bit due to injury concerns. A strong defensive catcher with pop, Dingler had no trouble with A-ball pitching, but really struggled after a midyear promotion to Double A, with 62 punchouts and 9 walks in 208 PA for Erie, a 30 percent strikeout rate that wasn’t mitigated by other production in his .202/.264/.314 line. Dingler had never had contact issues like this before, but it persisted right up through the end of the season. He also missed most of August with a broken fingertip, which hardly would have helped him at the plate, and will have to work to maintain strength around his back and shoulder, both of which were issues for him in college. There’s at least above-average regular upside here, even if he’s a .300 OBP guy, because he can catch, throw, and might get to 20 homers in a full season, but he has to stay healthy for 100+ games, and has to return to Double A and show he can catch up to the better stuff at that level.
Jeter Downs, SS/2B, Boston Red Sox
Age: 23 | 5-11 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 32 in 2017
Downs jumped two levels to Triple-A Worcester last year, and it didn’t take, as he hit .191/.272/.333 in 99 games for the Paws… Woosox, I guess. He made less contact than before and did less on contact — he’d been a doubles machine in 2019, but last year couldn’t even do that, with his hits going for doubles at half the rate of the previous year. He wasn’t making the same kind of contact, even against the more hitter-friendly major-league ball. Scouts I asked questioned whether he was just discouraged by the tough season and that perhaps it snowballed on him. It’s not a swing issue, and he showed signs of life when he went to the AFL in October, taking good at-bats and hitting several balls hard (granted, the pitching out there was awful). He played mostly shortstop, but there’s broad consensus he can’t play there in the majors, while he’s shown 55 defense at second. For a prospect whose calling card was always his hit tool, however, this kind of performance is especially concerning. If it’s just a fluke, perhaps from the aggressive promotion, then he can still be an above-average regular at second base.
Advertisement
Jarren Duran, OF, Boston Red Sox
Age: 25 | 6-2 | 212 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 220 in 2018
I still think Duran’s going to be a good big leaguer, but his production in the majors in 2021 was hard to explain away. Granted, it was just 112 PA, but when your walk and strikeout rates look just like Billy Hamilton’s, you might have a problem. Duran reworked his swing during the shutdown to get to more power, as prior to that he was a low-walk slap hitter with plus speed, and it paid off in Triple A, where he hit 16 homers in 60 games — which is more homers than he had hit previously in the minors, fall league, college, and collegiate summer ball combined. A bad month or so doesn’t ruin a prospect’s outlook, and Duran still has above-average regular upside between his speed (and potential for plus defense, which we didn’t see last year) and power. The high-leverage swing may mean he swings-and-misses enough to cancel out some of that added value, especially if he continues to have problems with good velocity as he did in that cup of coffee in the majors.
Xavier Edwards, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 22 | 5-10 | 175 pounds
Bats: Switch | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 38 in 2018
Edwards has great feel to hit, can play above-average defense at second base, and even added third base to his skill set … but he just hasn’t been able to hit the ball hard enough to profile as more than a fringe regular yet, with exit velocities more in the 86-87 mph range. If you think Nick Madrigal was a top 100 prospect — I did not, for the record, and I stand by that — then Edwards would be one as well, because he hits the ball a bit harder than Madrigal does, and is younger, and a better defender at second. He’s a plus runner who hasn’t had great success on the bases, but the speed does make center field a possibility if he ever changes organizations.
Zack Gelof, 3B, Oakland A’s
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 60 in 2021
Advertisement
Gelof was a revelation in pro ball, and all he had to do was get away from the rigid hitting approach imposed on all hitters at the University of Virginia, where you must hit at all times like you have two strikes and terrorists will kill your family if you don’t put the ball in play. He had power in high school, and it came back out in pro ball, where he hit 7 homers in 36 pro games after hitting 9 in 63 games in the spring — with a metal bat, against college pitching. He ended up hitting .333/.422/.565 after signing, mostly in Low A, with three games in Triple A at the very end of the season where he went 7 for 12. He hurt his arm early in the spring working with a weighted ball, which impacted his throwing for most of the college season, but he’s healthy now and throwing fine, with the quick first step required to play well at third base. I might have had the confidence to put him on the top 100 if his sample size in pro ball had been larger.
Steven Kwan, OF, Cleveland Guardians
Age: 24 | 5-9 | 170 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 163 in 2018
Kwan doesn’t quite look the part of a top prospect, since you won’t find many 5-9 left fielders of any sort in the majors — only Andrew Benintendi and Ben Revere have had at least 2 WAR and played the majority of their games in left at 5-9 or shorter in the last 10 years. Kwan does hit, though, and hit, and hit, going .328/.407/.527 last year between Double A and Triple A at age 23, with more walks than strikeouts. His strikeout rate of 9.1 percent was the fifth-lowest of all minor leaguers with at least 200 PA, and it came with more power than any of the guys who struck out less often. He runs close to average but doesn’t have the arm to play center, and there’s a ceiling on his production given his size and positional limitations. I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t hit enough to be at least a fringe regular, though, and his upside is someone who challenges for the league lead in batting average.
Korey Lee, C, Houston Astros
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 32 in 2019
The Astros’ first-round pick in 2019, Lee was actually my final cut from the top 100 this year, so if you’re asking who was No. 101, it’s him. The reason is his lower ceiling than some of the guys I put over him in the 90s. Lee is a plus defender with a powerful and accurate arm, throwing out 43 percent of runners across three stops last year, and he’s a solid hitter for contact, just without much impact or patience. His pitch recognition seems fine and I have seen him hit velocity, although it’s more singles and doubles than anything that might turn into bigger power. He won’t turn 23 until July, though, and has time to get stronger and prove that I was too light on him here. I do think at worst he’s a soft regular thanks to his defense and contact rates.
Garrett Mitchell, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 215 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 20 in 2020
Mitchell was the Brewers’ first-round pick in 2020 out of UCLA, a 70 runner and 70 defender in center who hit well in college. He has an unorthodox swing and ran into big trouble in Double A at the end of 2021, hitting .186/.291/.264 in 35 games for Biloxi, which would be less of a concern if the swing were more conventional. He’s also had trouble staying healthy, with a muscle strain in his knee that cost him three weeks, and missed the last week of the Shuckers’ season. He already faced some questions about his durability because he has diabetes, and combined with the below-average power projection and doubts about the hit tool, it was enough to keep him off the top 100. There’s at least an argument that he should be behind the Brewers’ second pick from 2021, infielder Tyler Black.
Advertisement
Benny Montgomery, OF, Colorado Rockies
Age: 19 | 6-4 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 8 in 2021
The Rockies took Montgomery with the No. 8 pick in the 2021 draft, following the same template they used — successfully, so far — with Zac Veen the year before: Take the most athletic, high-upside position player still on the board. He’s a plus runner with plus raw power, but pro scouts who saw him over the summer and in instructs were concerned about the unique swing, which has a large hitch in it, and how well it will hold up against better pitching in full-season ball. Can he hit, and hit enough to get to the power in games? He has defense and position in his favor, as he’s more likely to stay in center field than Veen is, but he has to prove he can make that swing work against better pitchers than what he saw as a high schooler in Pennsylvania. He does have 20/20 upside with good defense in center if he hits, which would put him on the top 100 next year.
Kyren Paris, SS, Los Angeles Angels
Age: 20 | 6-0 | 165 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 55 in 2019
Paris was one of the youngest players in the 2019 draft when the Angels took him in the second round, turning 18 that November, so he was an appropriate age for Low A this year — when he played, as a leg injury kept him off the field for more than two months. He’s a contact-oriented hitter who should be able to post high OBPs in time with some doubles power, but he also had difficulty with high fastballs at both levels last year and has to cut down on the swing-and-miss to keep his average and OBP up. He plays above-average defense at short with quick feet and an above-average arm, and he’s a plus runner who could get to 40 bags if he stays healthy and gets on base enough. He’ll probably return to High A this year as a 20-year-old and work on cutting down on his chase rate, after which it should be clearer how likely he is to get to that above-average everyday shortstop ceiling.
Ryan Pepiot, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 215 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 102 in 2019
The Dodgers’ system is hilarious; I see at least four other guys who had a credible argument to be on the top 100 or this just-missed list. Pepiot has an 80 changeup, one of the best pitches of its type in baseball right now, along with an above-average fastball, although he didn’t dominate left-handed batters last year as you’d expect for someone with a change or splitter of that caliber. Instead, he uses it as much to neutralize right-handed bats as left, and I think he could pitch in the majors in relief right now. He has a simple delivery and gets on top of the ball well for some plane on the fastball and to help turn over that changeup. What he lacks is the command and control he’ll need to be a starter without an above-average breaking ball (for now, at least); he walked a man every other inning in Triple A, only getting through five innings twice in 11 starts because of his inefficiency. That said, it’s an 80 changeup, and helps the fastball play up as well, and a tighter slider or a bump in control would make him at least a back-end starter right now.
Jordan Westburg, 3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 203 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 30 in 2020
Advertisement
Westburg had a strange year, starting in Low A as a 22-year-old college product — granted, nobody played in 2020, but he was really too advanced for the level, so he destroyed it — and thus not reaching Double A until mid-August, so he didn’t have much time to make adjustments to better pitching. He’s a long-levered kid, listed at 6-3, and when he puts the bat on the ball it’s pretty loud, with the potential for 40 doubles and 20 homers if he hits enough to get to it. He crushes left-handed pitching, but has some trouble with right-handed breaking stuff, often guessing and missing fastballs in what might be curveball or slider counts. He has a real two-strike approach, though, getting wide and eliminating his stride to try to put the ball in play. Baltimore had him split time between shortstop and third base last year, with the former probably a reach but third base a no-doubt floor for him, and his arm will play anywhere.
Owen White, RHP, Texas Rangers
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 199 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 55 in 2018
The Rangers signed White to an over-slot deal in the second round in 2018, only to have him need Tommy John surgery that kept him out through 2019, and then the pandemic happened, and he finally made his pro debut in May of last year … and broke a bone in his hand. When he got healthy, though, he rolled: In his last three starts in Low A, he struck out 33 batters and walked 2 in 18.2 innings. He got stronger during all that time away from the mound, and now sits 93-96 mph with an above-average changeup and slider along with a curveball that’s his least consistent pitch for now. His delivery works and he pitches in attack mode, going after hitters with the fastball so he can set up his other weapons. He has just 35 innings of pro experience, plus another 28 innings in the Arizona Fall League, so we have no idea how his newfound stuff or his command will hold up over a full season.
(Top photo of Korey Lee: Chris Bernacchi / Diamond Images via Getty Images)
